News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Of course it will provide additional reach.

Who does Maersk, Evergreen, Cosco, et al have to thank for this? Israel.

America can thank Israel for this too.

Truly the tail wagging the dog, and getting the dog into all sorts of trouble. Nobody was shooting at British and American ships until Israel decided to turn Gaza into a parking lot.

Off-Topic / 75 Years of Israel and the War - part 3 [497]


You're a genius.

Verily the curse of Allah is upon the liars.

Just opened Twitter and Iran is already trolling Israel:

• 
  IMG_7064.jpeg
  

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


If the 1950s is ancient history - sure.

This Reza Pahlavi bullshit is when I first started to doubt Israel's plans.

Netanyahu has had some great successes, but he has also demonstrated that he does not know how to end wars. He promised that the Gaza operation would last about two weeks. It's been much more than that - and there is still no end in sight.

While Saudi Arabia and Qatar are busy helping the new government in Syria find its bearings - Netanyahu occupied a further 400 sq km of the Golan Heights - despite apparent attempts by the Syrians towards a rapprochement.

In Yemen - he failed to even dent the Houthi's ability to strike at ships in the Gulf of Aden, or strike at Israeli airports - and that has also been going on for a very long time.

He's great at starting things, not so great at winding them down. If Trump doesn't bail him out right now, I think he's in a lot of trouble.

Off-Topic / 75 Years of Israel and the War - part 3 [497]


Oh ****!

This probably means there was an underground command center under the hospital.

Maybe Israel had an underground airfield situated under the hospital? A tunnel network?

Haha! Karma is a *****.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Yes, familiar with their move to Albania. Not to worry, still plenty of other terrorist organizations based in London and New York - like Hizb ut Tahrir or the Gullenists or the Falun Gong.


Hmm... I think it does.

The Pahlavis stole the throne from the rightful Qajars.

Then they sold Iran to America for power (Mossadegh Coup).

They were thieves in royal clothes.

They ruled for themselves, not the people.

They were what doomed secularism in Iran. Only they could have caused an alliance to form between teenagers and septuagenarian clerics. Can you imagine what that takes?

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


My brother - can you not see the obvious? In the same way you were trying to explain to me the "obvious" just after Russia invaded Ukraine?

It's hard to make people like you - when you are pointing a gun to their head or dropping bombs on their homes.

It may be even harder to be loved, when you haven't been in the country since you were 17 years old, and then suddenly reappeared only after a hostile state hacked your national tv network and showed your face.

Reza Pahlavi cannot be viewed as anything but an Israeli collaborator. No self respecting conservative OR liberal Iranian could support the person, that Israel brought on the tip of a sword.

The Pahlavi dynasty are a bunch of lowborn Mazandarani usurpers (not even Persians). His grandfather was a nobody - an officer in the Persian Cossack Corps. Not a drop of noble blood, no tribal lineage, no historical claim, and not even any ties to the previous Qajar aristocracy. They're no Romanovs... to put it lightly.

The way his father ruled - showed the extent of their origins. They make the Al-Sauds look like paragons of nobility and civility.

------/------

The only real opposition to the regime are the Mujahideen-e-Khalq. Sometimes they bring these guys to the White House (John Bolton - big fan). They are Marxist Islamists. In the 1980s, they supported Saddam in his war against Iran, and this eroded much of the support they had within the country. Then throughout the 90s and early 00s they carried out bombings and assassinations across Iran. That pretty much completely marginalized them within Iranian society, and now they have a semi cult like reputation.

Still, the MeK is much more popular than some kleptocrat's son that hasn't lived in Iran since he was 17 years old.

History / Recommended Poland's history books [257]

@marion kanawha

I thought you were some kind of idiot initially, but now really enjoy your book reports.

Thanks for this!

Genealogy / Russian POW Camp records [71]


Just use the "+ files" button you see in the top right, when composing a post.

I gotta say - your grandpa is an unusual fellow.

Participated in the Polish-Soviet War, and then in the Polish-German war, and finally somehow ended up in Germany during the end stages of the war. Someone should make a movie about his adventures.

I assume that the military commendations you are referring to in the first part are Polish ones?

News / Will Poland as a NATO member be drawn into the Israel/Iran war ? [250]


If you show this to an alien from the planet Niburu, in the galaxy Andromeda - he might say "This indicates to me that the location for this country was likely chosen unwisely."

If something has been in trouble since Day 1, and can not sustain itself without massive and constant infusions of money from abroad - this might be an indicator that its not a very sustainable entity.

-------------------------------------------

Imagine if in a few years Britain elects a wild prime minister, that within a short amount of time announces plans to stuff all the Irish into ovens and reannex Ireland back into the UK. Over the course of a few years, he would have nearly completed his job of exterminating the Irish... but then a joint Japanese-Brazilian expeditionary force liberates the island of Ireland itself, and places the UK under occupation.

An international body meets in Cape Town, to flesh out how the post-war world will look. Irish representatives from the United States, argue that Irish people will never again be able to feel safe, unless granted their own historic Celtic homeland.

By this time, the EU is a much more centralized entity - with most power concentrated in Brussels. For all intents and purposes, the EU has turned into a global superpower, and a real empire.

The EU proposes, that it has some territory in the vicinity of Switzerland and Austria, that it could be make available for Irish settlers. The Irish are ecstatic, since this is their ancient Heimat from which they were expelled by the Romans and Germans.

Local Swiss and Austrians are made to move high up into the valleys of the Tirol, while freeing up the fertile lowlands for the moving Irish. The local Irish tell them - "there's no such things as a Swiss or an Austrian - move back to Germany migrants!".

I think you understand where I am going...

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


It's possible that they could simply collapse, sure.

Nobody thought that the 50-year old Assad regime could fall in just a matter of two weeks.

Nobody anticipated how quickly Hezbollah would crumble without the charismatic leadership of Nasrallah.

It's possible that the Islamic Republic is also just one big rotten facade that will come crashing down with a further couple kicks.

-------------------------------

I don't see its collapse as likely, however, unless Israel and Washington can convince Russia and China that this is in its interests. I can't speak for China, but I can explain how Israel could convince Russia:

1) Russia has incredibly close ties with Israel, through our diaspora. Up to 15% of Israel's population, are people from the former Soviet Union. Becoming an enemy of our own former compatriots, and by proxy the rest of international Jewry - is maybe not in Russia's interest.

2) Russia has increasingly close ties with Saudi Arabia (where we steer OPEC+ together), and the UAE (where many rich Russians live, and which is conduit for a large part of the sanctions busting trade). These two states are incredibly nervous about living next to Iran. They could reward us handsomely for sitting out this fight.

3) Under no circumstances is Russia interested in Iran having a nuke. In the past Israel had convinced us to halt jet fighter exports to Iran, and also managed to restrict the S-400 anti-air shipments to just a single battery. If Israel manages to convince Russia that a nuclear Iran is a virtual inevitability, that could convince Russia to stay out.

4) Last year, Russia became Iran's largest foreign investor. Israel, or whoever they have convinced to come and run Iran (the Shah, some liberals, whomever), has to make representations that all Russian property rights will be respected - including in Iran's key oil and gas industry.

5) All other agreements must be respected as well. Including the trade liberalization agreements, and the agreement to build the civilian nuclear power plant at Bushehr.

6) Whatever critical imports we require from Iran in support of the military operation in Ukraine, must continue to flow.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


What they can do:

1) Block the straights with the hulls of scuttled ships, necessitating potentially weeks or months of salvage and clearance work.

2) Attack Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati oil terminals on the Western coast of the Gulf.

3) Use some of the thousands of short range missiles they have to strike American military bases in the region - the same way they struck an American air base in Iraq in response to the killing of Suleimani.

4) Reignite the sectarian war in Iraq, by unleashing Sadr once again.

5) Provide weapons and aid to Saudi Arabia's oppressed Shia minority - which happens to live on top of all of Saudi's oil reserves

6) Remove any prior restrictions on aid to the Houthis

7) Use the limited fissile material they have to set off a dirty bomb in Israel, potentially rendering large parts of it dangerous for human habitation

8) It could go the full terrorism route and start responding directly on NYC, Washington - it has infinitely more resources at its disposal compared to non-state actors like Al Qaeda and ISIS.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [412]


This is the power of Putinism/Trumpism.

Genealogy / Russian POW Camp records [71]


There were some early-on exchanges of Poles between the USSR and Germany. I think it lasted exactly during that period - Sept 1939 to Summer of 1940. It would make sense that the Nazis would want us to hand back "German" Poles, though I had never read about this myself.

My understanding... more - was that the Nazis were sending us back Belorussians and Ukranians, and we were sending back Poles.

Genealogy / Russian POW Camp records [71]

@gjene

Well, everything makes sense now. Almost.

Your grandpa was a Volksdeutsche. It's not likely he was captured at all.

Genealogy / Russian POW Camp records [71]


To go from Russian POW to "relocating" to Germany, at the top of the war (August 1944!!!) - is a very strange story indeed.

Possibilities:

1) He was mobilized into the Polish First Army in the USSR, straight from the camps. Then fought his way together with the Soviet army back into Europe, and one day quietly escaped. But then how did he settle in Ulm? Weird.

2) He had become a German collaborationist, after Germany somehow reached his camp. This seems unlikely, but I am not able to say for sure. It's my belief that Polish POWs were among the first to be moved East ahead of the advancing Germans. I may be wrong of course.

It makes no sense that your grandpa was free by the middle of 1940. The first Polish POWs were not released until mid 1941, under the Sikorski-Mayski Agreement (July, 1941). That agreement led to the formation of the so-called Anders Army, composed of Polish POWs and deportees.

Living in random places from 1940 to 44 was not really possible - unless you are talking about Kazakh SSR.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Putin's Russia is a little bit busy with something called the Ukraine War, but I'm still sure that advisers are being sent to help.

Iran's biggest friend is China - the main buyer of its oil exports. It buys approximately 2 million barrels a day from Iran, or about 90% of all it exports.

If Israel and America manage to bring Iranian oil off the market, the biggest loser will be China. Russia will actually gain tremendously, as will Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and other big oil exporters.

It's China's silence that is more surprising - since this a critical part of their energy supply chain.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Great. So Anglo racism explains why Saudi Arabia is treated like the child with Down's Syndrome, and Iran instead like a delinquent teenager.


Certainly not by their husbands. Meanwhile, most Saudi men treat their wives like cattle.

Did you know that women in Iran can drive automobiles since the 1930s, but in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia only since 2018 - and even then only with permission from their male guardian.

How about that Paulina? Wanna ask your husband for permission to drive?

How about this: women in KSA cannot leave prison or shelters without a male guardian's approval, even if they were jailed for "disobedience" or fleeing abuse. Haha!

Your husband can send you to prison, and not call you back home until he's ready!

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


The international terminals in Istanbul, in Doha, and in Dubai will tell you that Iranians are anything but "isolated".

Their women enter the lavatory in modest dress and scarves, and then come out wearing designer jeans and shoes.

You can see them shopping in Moscow too. They are like anybody else. They like cosmetics, clothes, cars, and gadgets.

There are Ferraris and Maseratis in Tehran, and they can watch any tv show they want using a vpn.

Netanyahu has done a great job painting a caricature of Iran that the rest of the West has swallowed.

Saudi Arabia is 50 times more repressive religiously, than Iran. How many people did Iran publicly behead last year? How many did the Saudis behead? How many people's hands have the Saudi's chopped off? How many journalists did they execute? Doesn't matter. Saudis are good, because they are retards that can't even wipe their own butt without American or English help - and so they are found to be cute and harmless.

Genealogy / Russian POW Camp records [71]

If your grandfather was not an officer, it is likely that he was filtered through camps and ended up within the GULAG system.

If he was an officer, he was likely executed at Katyn, Kalinin or Kharkov.

This Russian organization maintains a database for persons that been in the GULAG system:

memo.ru/ru-ru/collections/archives/structure/

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Russian involvement in Iran is probably one of the biggest blunders of Western foreign policy.

Iranians hate, hate, hate Russians. We carved off a good third of their country. All of modern Georgia, modern Azerbaijan, modern Armenia, parts of Dagestan and of Chechnya.

It's their equivalent of China's "Unequal Treaties", and a source of deep national humiliation.

Then we invaded them twice during the 20th century (last time in 1941). We supported Azeri and Kurdish separatism. Ran campaigns aimed at undermining the idea of an Iranian national state. And then finally acted as the primary supplier of weapons for Saddam during the Iran-Iraq War.

Like the Turks, they have a genetic mistrust towards Russians - and view it always as a potential enemy.

To mistreat Iran to such a degree that it runs into Russia's embrace, you need to be a real stable genius, or just Israel's lapdog.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


This is why I said the elected civilian governments run "99% of day to day life".

Things like garbage collection, policing, healthcare, education, and so on.

The Supreme Leader legitimates this entire rule through his person. He sets and shapes the whole ideological climate - through his Friday sermons, and through his power to control key appointments in the judiciary and the media.

Technically - he is able to intervene in every corner of Iranian life. He can overrule the president. He can directly intervene in the lawmaking process. He can nullify or allow nuclear agreements. In practice - however - this has been an increasingly rare occurrence.

His meddling in Iranian domestic life is probably at its lowest level since the late 1990s.

What he and his IRGC buddies are obsessed with is their Axis of Resistance - which is all outside the country, and completely unaccountable to the civilian government of Iran. But all these machinations with Hezbollahs, Houthis, and Hamas' has no bearing on life in Iran itself. There's a huge Chinese wall between these things. In fact, there's a great deal of hypocrisy where Iran promotes much more aggressive strains of thought abroad, in comparison to what it is prepared to tolerate at home.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


This is a matter of record, to the level of birth certificates.

Israelis are happily living on land that Palestinians had been expropriated from within the lifetime of their grandparents.

Like the Ukrainians, they have renamed cities (which carried the same name for a thousand years or more), renamed streets, reclaimed temples, and razed family plantings going back generations - all in the name of some historical fiction to which no one has any relation.

Fanatics. Zealots. Dangerous people.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Yes they mostly employ Englishmen to do the managerial work, and Banglas, Pakis, and Indians to do the rest. Very nice carryover from the Raj.

You forgot to mention the Arabs that are flourishing, or at very least have no foreigners to do all the work:

1) The Lebanese

2) The Tunisians

3) The Algerians

4) The Morroccans

5) The Egyptians - a very large country, and very poor, but because of its enormous size - a country that definitely has more talented people than say - Bulgaria.

Lazy Hejazis that do no work, and sit on an ocean of oil are not representative of all the other hardworking Arabs out there.

Off-Topic / Is Islam a threat to western society? [167]


Wtf.

This is not an immigration problem. It's a Polish problem. Where are your balls and where is your heart?

In Russia, Muslims are quieter than the brook, lower than the weeds.

In Russia, Muslims do not dare question Orthodoxy.

We are the only people in the world with orthodox Christian Muslims.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


A myopic view.

Iran's interest, in this case, is Poland's interest.

If Iran loses - then this is not good for Poland. It would also be a serious additional argument for why Poland needs to develop nuclear weapons.

Poland is a natural partner for Iran. It's a great potential market for Polish exports. Its people are the most well-read and educated in the Middle East. There are historic ties between Persia and Poland - that I'm sure you yourself are aware of.


I'm not here to argue, and prove to everyone that nobody can be smarter than Bobko. But if these facts had changed your view, or made it more nuanced - these are things I want to know.

I'm against obscurantism. I want knowledge to flow in all directions, and I think this will make our societies happier.


Richard is the uncontested genius for laying out complex thoughts in simple terms. I am not graced with the same talent as Mr. Mazur. It takes me a longer time to get my point across.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

Nobody responds to Bobko posts :((

Law / Zloty lifts Poland's Economy [58]


Another believer in a Polonocentric model of the Solar System.

Why should the other states bend over backwards, for the great honor of Poland joining the Eurozone?

What's the benefit to Germany, of Poland in the Eurozone?

I've never lived in Poland, but imagine Poland already invoices everyone it trades with in Euros.

Nobody has to go looking for Zloty to pay Poland. They just pay Poland in Euros, and Poles go and bring this money to their national bank to get back Zlotys - used to pay taxes and buy goods inside Poland.

There is literally zero difference for the other EU member states when it comes to what Poland decides about the Zloty. The economy is big, but still small next to Germany's.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

The weakest and most inconsequential player in this whole picture is Iran's pathetic army - the Artesh.

They have been completely neutered, with their balls sliced off.

They don't have an opinion about anything, and no one asks them for one.

Their funding is a fraction of the funding of the IRGC, and they have no businesses they own which they could use to create patronage networks.

Just good old military people, that don't care neither about Israel nor about nukes.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

So having established that the Ayatollah Khamenei is not in favor of nuclear weapons, but rather wants to stay just below the threshold to maintain strategic ambiguity - then who does? I'm not sure, but let's go down the list.

Radically anti-Zionist civilian governments. One has to note that there is not one in power right now.

Hardline members of the IRGC. This I'm less inclined to believe, because these guys have the most to lose. Some experts estimate the amount of businesses the IRGC controls in Iran is such that the annual revenue exceeds $20 billion. Why would these guys try to destroy the goose that lays the golden eggs? Iranian sepoys are not stupid.

Fringe clerics with radicalized bases. This is more... concerning. It is known that Iran's establishment has trouble on both ends. From liberals, and from hardliners. At the moment the liberals seem to be mollified, and instead the hardliners are in ascendancy. Thanks to what? Thanks to Israel's unprovoked attack.

How does the Ayatollah ward off hardliners? By becoming more hard line himself. He's done this in the past by helping Ahmadinejad into power, and then regretted it bitterly.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


You keep going on and on about Mullahs, but all it shows is how uninformed you are about modern Iran.

Ayatollah Khamenei is THE NUMBER 1 REASON Iran still does not have a nuclear weapon.

He has spoken extensively about the immorality of nuclear weapons, and has placed a fatwa on their development. The Revolutionary Guards, and the civilian foreign ministers always reference the Ayatollah's fatwa, when arguing why they are not weaponizing.

Iran has a complex society. It's an Islamic theocratic democracy (if you can imagine such a thing).

It has a civilian government, which is elected and runs 99% of normal day-to-day life. It is these democratically elected civilian governments which have been sometimes problematic, not just for the West but even for the Ayatollah. None more so than the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Hanging gay people from cranes, whipping young people for immodest dress, kidnapping people off the street for other perceived moral vices - this is what Ahmadinejad was all about. After a while, it really started grating on the Iranian population. Then it exploded into nationwide protests that lasted a year, following an election that was suspected to be rigged against Moussavi - the moderate opposition candidate.

The leader of the opposition, in many ways, was not Moussavi but another Ayatollah, of quite moderate views. The Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri. It was the most real threat to the Islamic Republic since its founding. The so called Green Movement, was a backlash against the extremism of Ahmadinejad, and his policy of permanent confrontation with the West.

Eventually, Ahmadinejad's downfall was orchestrated by the Ayatollah himself. He has since spoken about the dangers presented by radicals, and has been a good partner to the much more moderate governments of Raisi and Pezeshkian.

Nobody remembers Ahmadinejad in Iran anymore, except to curse his name.