History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


Hahahaha! *cough cough* Ahahahahahahahahaha! *catches breath* Muwahahahahahahahahaha!

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


Who's us? Are you gonna live forever?

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


I hope so.

When Poles and Germans and French go extinct - because their amazing development gave them an allergy to having children - I hope Russians will still be around because we were more like Nigerians and Tajiks.

Unfortunately, I think you are wrong, and we are still headed for your wonderful level of development that will send us all the way of the dinosaurs.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


May God preserve us from ever reaching your levels of development.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


Because they are Papuans, with no history of statehood or experience at diplomacy.

They behave as any other Cargo Cult (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult).

They believe that if they cast the right incantations, march in the correct formations, and provide the necessary sacrifices - then the white man from the sky will come and drop more Euros and more Dollars.

When they do everything correctly (to their mind), and the White Man is still upset - they don't understand why.

"Did we not say we are Atlanticists?"

"Did we not confirm our belief in Western liberal democracy?"

"Did we not pray to the Gods of 'Strong Institutions' and 'Checks and Balances'?"

"Did we not profess our hatred of Russians and Chinese, from the mountains, and the valleys, and from the depths of the sea?"

"Did we not host ten million national prayer breakfasts where we showed we are all good Christians?"

They don't understand why... after all this... somebody would keep bringing up awkward questions about massacres and missing money and... about a realistic plan for victory.

The current generation of Ukrainian leadership all grew up on Soros grants, British Council grants, USAID grants, and various "developmental workshops" in places like Princeton and Oxford.

Pygmies. Hobbits. Papuans.

In contrast - Russia has a 1,200 year history of developing independent policy - without looking into the White Man's mouth for the next morsel.

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [35]


That's f*cking insane.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


The soul that sinneth, it shall die.
The son shall not bear the iniquity of the father,
neither shall the father bear the iniquity of the son: the righteousness of the righteous shall be upon him, and the wickedness of the wicked shall be upon him.

Your hatred of Russians, has disconnected you from humanity's core principles.

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [35]

To be honest, I was in the camp of those people that advocated Russia must borrow like crazy, and run up our debt to at least 80-100% of GDP.

I wanted Chinese style investment into infrastructure at 25-30% of GDP. Use American and German money to build all the railroads, dams, and highways that our economy is in desperate need of. God knows we could service a debt load like that easily, with the money coming in from oil and gas (while the planet still needs it - one day the Klondike will be over).

But Putin, and the uber-fiscal conservatives around him, were and are allergic to foreign debt. He paid back the Paris Club ahead of schedule, and the IMF and World Bank - even though he didn't need to. He very carefully issued Eurobonds (which are now all in technical default), but preferred to rely instead on internal financing.

Maybe he knew he was gonna declare war on Ukraine all along, and that's why he kept us on some kind of debt hunger diet... but even that seems an erroneous explanation.

We still could have run up the debts, and then when he invaded Ukraine - those debts would be declared in default just like the small existing ones. It would be Western problem.

I would like to see Western politicians force write offs on their funds of not several hundred billion, but $2 Trillion dollars of Russian bonds. Haha! They would not do it. We might have been in a better negotiating position now, if we really ran up our debt.

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [35]


Pensions' and state salaries' growth has not kept up with inflation - true - so real income for many people has stagnated. But across the economy at large, wage growth has exceeded inflation.

Perversely, this is driving further inflation, because we have a demand side problem with inflation in Russia. People are earning more money than ever, and are trying to buy more goods than ever - but Russian industry can't keep up, whereas imports have been drastically curtailed.


There's literally hundreds of billions of dollars of FX pouring in annually. The restrictions in place in 2022 are gone - you can buy as many dollars as you want. You can go, and get $10 million in new dollar bills, and no one will bat an eye. The problem is - there isn't much to buy with that FX. Europe and America won't sell to us, so everything is going to China. In a matter of years, the automobile market has become dominated by Chinese players - for example.


Invest in government bonds (if you have a view on inflation going down), in equities, in real estate, in precious metals, into private equity, into private credit - whatever you want. So long as it's in Russia, or a country on the list of "friendly countries".

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [35]


Yes you are.

Russia represents a fiscal fortress. What really matters is our overall debt burden, which is tiny compared to both Poland and the United States (20% vs 50% and 120%).

The bond yields may seem extreme, but the primary driver for this is inflation (which is stubbornly above 15% in Russia since the war started).

This means that every year, Russia's debt becomes devalued by 15% in real terms. Since we don't need external rollover financing, we don't care if foreigners discount that debt. In fact, foreigners can't buy our debt anyway, because their governments forbid them.

Together, this means that every 7-8 years or so, we inflate away the lion's share of the previously accumulated debt.

Further, it may seem like paying a 15% coupon is very expensive, but you have to remember that the primary buyers for government debt in Russia are state owned banks and pension funds. We essentially have a captive buyer, that has no choice but to buy Russian bonds. Effectively, the government's left pocket, pays its right pocket - in the same way as happens when the Fed begins to buy trillions of dollars of Treasuries.

In short:

1) Russia has a closed capital account (meaning Ruble debt is trapped inside a domestic cage).

2) Russia has a tremendously healthy current account surplus from commodities (even as the ruble depreciates, the river of FX keeps flowing in).

3) We have a population that has little choice but to hold Ruble-denominated financial assets

4) This combination lets the state use inflation as a stealth tax, eroding liabilities quietly. What Novichok constantly brings up - inflation as a tax.

For the Kremlin, high ruble inflation is great, because it allows them to meet their obligations much easier. Each barrel of oil brings in more and more rubles, whereas pension and state salaries' growth do not keep up.

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [35]


At least you're not doing as badly as Romania. Those idiots run a suicidal deficit of 9.3% of GDP, and are only planning to reach the EU target of 3% somewhere in the mid 2030s.

However, you are not far from France, which actually runs a slightly tighter ship than you (5.6% vs 6.1%). On September 8th their government will collapse, and borrowing costs will soar further. Yesterday they were at Italian levels (for the first time ever). In two weeks, they'll probably be at Bulgaria levels.

For the time being, the problem is more political in nature, but can quickly turn into a full blown crisis.

Francois Bayrou says that there is a very real possibility that France will need an IMF bailout, if the parliament doesn't support his cabinet's program. There's practically a 100% chance at this point that his government will collapse, since the Front National and Socialists have already said they won't help him.

I never thought I would read such a sentence in my life. FRANCE! A founding member of the IMF! A board member! The country that has supplied more IMF Directors than any other (Lagarde and Dominique Strauss-Kahn most recently) - will be bailed out by the organization.

Truly crazy times we live in.

But back on topic - Poles really are running a kamikaze budget. What on Earth were you thinking, putting together budgets that are €65Bn in the red?

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


I'd argue they did more harm than good to Ukraine.

They drown out the voices of pragmatists that want Ukraine to secure a realistic settlement. They make anybody speaking out for peace feel like a quisling, whereas they themselves propose no real path to securing a victory.

Hiding behind the shoulders of the Ukrainian army, they taunt the Russians. Meanwhile, real Russian soldiers and real Ukrainian soldiers only speak about each other in terms of respect, in this third year of the war. Obviously there is hate, but there is almost no one left who makes fun of "mobiks" or "slaves".

These Shiba Inu dogs, meanwhile, are spiraling into ever more grotesque forms of xenophobia. Recently, they were celebrating the anniversary of the death of Daria Dugina. Enough said.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


Ok Boomer.


lol, it's not PR segmenting. All the Ukrs, Brits, Germans, and Americans of Twitter are piling onto the Poles that dare make a peep in support of Nawrocki or Kominiak-Kamysz.

These people were not sophisticated to begin with, seeing as they all adopted an avatar of a Shiba Inu dog as their mascot. They see the world in black and white - elf good, orc bad.

So when someone within their ranks begins to make questioning noises regarding Ukraine's angelic status, they all go after them like a pack of dogs.

I've seen with my own eyes, how these Uber Ukraine supporters, scare off people that live in neighboring countries (Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia) from supporting Ukraine.

They make no allowance for nuance, and treat anybody that questions Ukraine's actions as a Kremlin agent or even a fascist.

Posts like the one below, for example:

• 
  IMG_7685.jpeg
  

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


Uhhhmm, they most certainly are.

Poland has all but ceased help to Ukraine. Now, even the refugee benefits are on the chopping block.

One, little, tiny, illustration of how Polish-Ukrainian relations have gone downhill, is the radicalization of a Twitter account called "War Vehicle Tracker".

This guy has spent the past three years tracking vehicle losses for both sides. The databases he has contributed to, have been used as sources by the NYTimes, FT, WSJ, and others. He has hosted literally DOZENS of fundraisers for troops in Ukraine, that included drone purchases, excavators, PPE, etc.

Now this guy has turned into a Roman Dmowski, after 3 years of experiencing Ukrainian ingratitude. His posts yesterday:

• 
  IMG_7680.jpeg
  
• 
  IMG_7683.jpeg
  
• 
  IMG_7682.jpeg
  
• 
  IMG_7684.jpeg
  

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]

Tensions between Poland and Ukraine are once again on the rise... The Wolyn Massacre is a subject that seems to provide infinite grist for the hatred mill.

This past week, Ukrainians have been reacting to different statements coming from Polish state officials. First, Nawrocki's proposed ban on Banderist symbology, and then Kosiniak-Kamysz's threat that Ukraine will never join the EU so long as it doesn't perform full-scale exhumations and proper reburials of the dead.

So, obviously... I go to my favorite Ukrainian website (censor.net), and scour the comments. Today they were interesting. The Ukrainians are adopting a new line of defense against Polish accusations.

Behold, the Top 3 comments on Censor, under an article about Kosiniak-Kamysz's statements:

1) "Tell me WHY MODERN Ukraine should recognize its ephemeral involvement in an interethnic conflict of Polish citizens on its territory at that time?"

2) "Poland has been 'deflated'. Indeed, it didn't last for a very long time. Ukraine is truly surrounded by faggots from all sides, who are ready to suck katsap dick as a first order priority, rather than to help their neighbor in a fight."

3) "Polish nationalists should impose a taboo on national-historical pretensions towards Ukraine - IT IS BLEEDING TODAY, and Poland wants it to also bleed tomorrow? IDIOTS!!! Look for the Kremlin's agents among your leaders."

Source: censor.net/ru/news/3570663/kosinyak-kamysh-prizval-ukrainu-priznat-volynskuyu-tragediyu/sortby/tree/order/desc/page/1#comments

• 
  IMG_7673.jpeg
  

Off-Topic / The agreement in Alaska between the US and Russia. [43]

No thoughts until we see a document.

News / Why should Poland consider pursuing a strategic alliance with Russia? [396]

A Polish nuke - is an even bigger impossibility than a Ukrainian one.

No one will allow you to have even one. Not even the capability to develop it.

It won't be Russia and China kicking down your door, and searching your nuclear scientists - it will be your own EU and American "partners".

They will do all the work for us.

America will sanction you to death, before you gain your first 50 kilograms of plutonium.

History / Anniversary of Soviet Invasion [116]


Had read about your family before.

Very impressive.

This is why it surprises me, when you treat them with the degree of disrespect that you do (as written by your self here, sir).

You don't think - surely - that such a magnificent intellectual specimen as yourself was born out of the "vacuum"?

I'm curious what you think you owe them? In what ways you think you may have disappointed them? In what sense - could they not imagine, what you built?

History / PAŃSTWO - A Tale of Polish Occupation [27]

Nice Grunnie)

-//--

It's hard to write PANSTWO.

I don't know what to write.

I tried:

1) Two Russian gravediggers burying a Polish occupation bureaucrat.

2) A young Russian girl, getting herself ready for an interview at PANSTWO headquarters for an interview to be Secretary.

-//--

PANSTWO is missing something...

You can't build a story from these pieces...

Is it a comedy? Is it a horror?

What can we learn about the human condition, by analyzing relations between Poles and Russians in this fictional setting?

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


I will write some PANSTWO today

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


They want from us Karelia and Ingria.

This would allow them to connect by land bridge with their Finno-Ugric brothers in Estonia. You would have a Greater Finland like within short historic episodes.

One problem for Finns and Estonians - the largest city in their country would be St. Petersburg.

85% of their population would be ethnically Russian.


Never lived in their entire history with Russians (though lindependent largely thanks to Russia).

They are more used to Turks, Italians, and Austrians.

I think they "like" the idea of unity with Russia, but don't understand what this would entail.


Surprisingly close to us!

I was surprised after visiting.

60%+ support us against Ukraine (it's why they don't send anything).

Super powerful cultural position of the Church - even as everyone ignores it.

Some historic memory of Russians freeing them from the Turks, and some consequent gratitude.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]

There will have to be some give and take, if ever such alliances are forged.

No one will get quite what they expect.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


And here we are - Warsaw Pact minus Baltics, Romania, and Bulgaria - ahaha!

Bulgarians are strange. I really don't understand them. On the one hand, they seem like Russians v. 0.9, on the other hand they seem to me like Greeks and Turks.

They gave us the alphabet, the faith, and shaped our history - but now they are curious animals.

Romania - schizophrenic country that no one could give a f*ck about.

Baltics... well - it's no good to have NATO so close to our second largest city.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]

I said this before - but when we combine German discipline and manufacturing excellence with Russian resources and power - you get a combination that makes everybody lay bricks in their pants.

At 240M people we can already start spreading our shoulders.

If we add the Poles, and Hungarians - we have almost America's population.

Give us Ukraine - and you have Empire.

German discipline, Russian raw horsepower, Polish messianism, Hungarian trauma - can you imagine the toxic mix?

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]

@Bratwurst Boy

I grew up around a guy that was a tank battalion commander in the GDR, and a guy that was a regular infantryman there.

Both had nothing but good things to say about their time in Germany.

After things fell apart, the tank commander guy went to visit his old colleagues in 1999. The infantryman travelled with me, together, to visit an old German friend around 2010 in a small village outside Leipzig.

Russians and Germans make good friends. We get each other.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


Imagine you have spent all your life commanding Soviet Army soldiers...

Suddenly you are promoted and sent to Germany.

You are given the Rolls Royce of soldiers (former Prussians) - under your command. Of course you will notice the differences!

These are not just better soldiers than you ever had access to, but maybe the best soldiers in the world. They benefit from 250 years of non stop drill. They are Germans - that fulfill orders to the T.

Of course you will start to hate your own men, and view them as incompetents.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


Nothing is better than a good Russian hat.

But to get such a hat as a kid... privileged little boy you must have been.

--//-

In a similar vein, I read a formerly classified report of a commander of the Soviet Forces in Germany. In it, he discusses the difference between the Soviet and German troops under his command.

This was a most hilarious read.

Most of the time, he spends sh*tting on the Soviet Army and the Soviet soldier specifically. Point by point, explaining how the German soldier is superior.

Understand - this is written by a Soviet commander, and yet he still cannot contain his disgust with his own men. Haha!

1) Germans do not lie nearly to the same extent as our men. If you receive a statement from a German soldier, you can assume that events likely unfolded just as he described. If you receive a statement from a Soviet soldier, you should assume that the truth is the 180 degree opposite.

2) German soldiers display much more individual initiative. They don't need everything to be explained step by step.

3) Germans do not shield each other from investigation and punishment in the same way Soviet soldiers do. It's not considered a honorable to conceal someone's malfeasance.

4) German units have substantially less "missing" pieces of inventory. They don't lose stuff, don't steal it, and try to maintain it in good working condition.

5) German respect to hierarchy, and military officers specifically is supreme. At the same time, a Soviet soldier could routinely punch his commander in the face, or demonstratively avoid duties - even if this lands him in military prison.

6) Germans are much more educated than Soviet soldiers.

7) Germans are much more physically fit. Paradoxically, this still doesn't make them "tougher" than Soviet soldiers. One of the few points where the Soviet commander had something good to say, was about the seemingly infinite capacity of his soldiers to endure suffering. The Germans are still viewed as gentle, and reliant on enablers.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]

In case anyone is interested in reading the tweet:

x.com/egor_avinkin/status/1949592748920590402?s=46

Unfortunately it is all in Russian.

Summary is: guy's grandma and grandpa worked as diplomats in the GDR. He's going through their stuff, and finds this memo.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


It is the German burger speaking!

"What about our shops?!"

Yesterday I was reading a memo which was handed out to Soviet diplomatic personnel in East Germany.

It explains some interesting differences between Russians and Germans, and why the Soviet diplomats have to respect the culture of the locals:

1) Capitalistic development has left a mark on the German psyche. A typical German emerges from amongst the petty bourgeoise. He strongly manifests the character traits of a small time shopkeeper.

2) If the clock strikes 12:00 - the German will drop everything and leave for lunch.

3) Germans do not wear "valenki" (Russian wool boots)

4) Almost all Germans have televisions, washing machines, radios, refrigerators, and gas stoves.

5) Two German phrases are provided to illustrate some points: "Befehl ist Befehl" (an order is an order), "Klein aber Mein" (small, but mine).

6) It is not viewed as polite to arrive at a queue, and ask who is last in line.

7) In the presence of a woman, you only smoke with her permission. In someone's home, you smoke only with the permission of the host. Oddly enough - it says that you cannot light a woman's cigarette with a match, if someone else had already used that match to light up.

8) German children move out of the parental home, once they become adults. Germans may go to each houses for celebrations, give each other gifts, and even plan vacations jointly - but each has his own delineated space. Parents do not interfere in the lives of their children, under any circumstances.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


Right now there are 45K American personnel in Germany.

Earlier this year, if you recall, Trump was contemplating pulling out as many as 20,000 of them. In fact, at some point, he said he wants to pull US forces out of Europe entirely.

45K is a drop in the ocean for a country as rich as Germany.

This is not some Djibouti or Greenland, where a whole country can depend on a military base.

You have almost 85 million people, and a $5T GDP, and you are crying - "Oh, what will we do when US soldiers leave? How will the casinos and strip clubs continue operating? To whom will we now sell our sausages!? Why God!?"