News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [35]


Yes you are.

Russia represents a fiscal fortress. What really matters is our overall debt burden, which is tiny compared to both Poland and the United States (20% vs 50% and 120%).

The bond yields may seem extreme, but the primary driver for this is inflation (which is stubbornly above 15% in Russia since the war started).

This means that every year, Russia's debt becomes devalued by 15% in real terms. Since we don't need external rollover financing, we don't care if foreigners discount that debt. In fact, foreigners can't buy our debt anyway, because their governments forbid them.

Together, this means that every 7-8 years or so, we inflate away the lion's share of the previously accumulated debt.

Further, it may seem like paying a 15% coupon is very expensive, but you have to remember that the primary buyers for government debt in Russia are state owned banks and pension funds. We essentially have a captive buyer, that has no choice but to buy Russian bonds. Effectively, the government's left pocket, pays its right pocket - in the same way as happens when the Fed begins to buy trillions of dollars of Treasuries.

In short:

1) Russia has a closed capital account (meaning Ruble debt is trapped inside a domestic cage).

2) Russia has a tremendously healthy current account surplus from commodities (even as the ruble depreciates, the river of FX keeps flowing in).

3) We have a population that has little choice but to hold Ruble-denominated financial assets

4) This combination lets the state use inflation as a stealth tax, eroding liabilities quietly. What Novichok constantly brings up - inflation as a tax.

For the Kremlin, high ruble inflation is great, because it allows them to meet their obligations much easier. Each barrel of oil brings in more and more rubles, whereas pension and state salaries' growth do not keep up.

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [35]


At least you're not doing as badly as Romania. Those idiots run a suicidal deficit of 9.3% of GDP, and are only planning to reach the EU target of 3% somewhere in the mid 2030s.

However, you are not far from France, which actually runs a slightly tighter ship than you (5.6% vs 6.1%). On September 8th their government will collapse, and borrowing costs will soar further. Yesterday they were at Italian levels (for the first time ever). In two weeks, they'll probably be at Bulgaria levels.

For the time being, the problem is more political in nature, but can quickly turn into a full blown crisis.

Francois Bayrou says that there is a very real possibility that France will need an IMF bailout, if the parliament doesn't support his cabinet's program. There's practically a 100% chance at this point that his government will collapse, since the Front National and Socialists have already said they won't help him.

I never thought I would read such a sentence in my life. FRANCE! A founding member of the IMF! A board member! The country that has supplied more IMF Directors than any other (Lagarde and Dominique Strauss-Kahn most recently) - will be bailed out by the organization.

Truly crazy times we live in.

But back on topic - Poles really are running a kamikaze budget. What on Earth were you thinking, putting together budgets that are €65Bn in the red?

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


I'd argue they did more harm than good to Ukraine.

They drown out the voices of pragmatists that want Ukraine to secure a realistic settlement. They make anybody speaking out for peace feel like a quisling, whereas they themselves propose no real path to securing a victory.

Hiding behind the shoulders of the Ukrainian army, they taunt the Russians. Meanwhile, real Russian soldiers and real Ukrainian soldiers only speak about each other in terms of respect, in this third year of the war. Obviously there is hate, but there is almost no one left who makes fun of "mobiks" or "slaves".

These Shiba Inu dogs, meanwhile, are spiraling into ever more grotesque forms of xenophobia. Recently, they were celebrating the anniversary of the death of Daria Dugina. Enough said.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


Ok Boomer.


lol, it's not PR segmenting. All the Ukrs, Brits, Germans, and Americans of Twitter are piling onto the Poles that dare make a peep in support of Nawrocki or Kominiak-Kamysz.

These people were not sophisticated to begin with, seeing as they all adopted an avatar of a Shiba Inu dog as their mascot. They see the world in black and white - elf good, orc bad.

So when someone within their ranks begins to make questioning noises regarding Ukraine's angelic status, they all go after them like a pack of dogs.

I've seen with my own eyes, how these Uber Ukraine supporters, scare off people that live in neighboring countries (Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia) from supporting Ukraine.

They make no allowance for nuance, and treat anybody that questions Ukraine's actions as a Kremlin agent or even a fascist.

Posts like the one below, for example:

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History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]


Uhhhmm, they most certainly are.

Poland has all but ceased help to Ukraine. Now, even the refugee benefits are on the chopping block.

One, little, tiny, illustration of how Polish-Ukrainian relations have gone downhill, is the radicalization of a Twitter account called "War Vehicle Tracker".

This guy has spent the past three years tracking vehicle losses for both sides. The databases he has contributed to, have been used as sources by the NYTimes, FT, WSJ, and others. He has hosted literally DOZENS of fundraisers for troops in Ukraine, that included drone purchases, excavators, PPE, etc.

Now this guy has turned into a Roman Dmowski, after 3 years of experiencing Ukrainian ingratitude. His posts yesterday:

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History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [487]

Tensions between Poland and Ukraine are once again on the rise... The Wolyn Massacre is a subject that seems to provide infinite grist for the hatred mill.

This past week, Ukrainians have been reacting to different statements coming from Polish state officials. First, Nawrocki's proposed ban on Banderist symbology, and then Kosiniak-Kamysz's threat that Ukraine will never join the EU so long as it doesn't perform full-scale exhumations and proper reburials of the dead.

So, obviously... I go to my favorite Ukrainian website (censor.net), and scour the comments. Today they were interesting. The Ukrainians are adopting a new line of defense against Polish accusations.

Behold, the Top 3 comments on Censor, under an article about Kosiniak-Kamysz's statements:

1) "Tell me WHY MODERN Ukraine should recognize its ephemeral involvement in an interethnic conflict of Polish citizens on its territory at that time?"

2) "Poland has been 'deflated'. Indeed, it didn't last for a very long time. Ukraine is truly surrounded by faggots from all sides, who are ready to suck katsap dick as a first order priority, rather than to help their neighbor in a fight."

3) "Polish nationalists should impose a taboo on national-historical pretensions towards Ukraine - IT IS BLEEDING TODAY, and Poland wants it to also bleed tomorrow? IDIOTS!!! Look for the Kremlin's agents among your leaders."

Source: censor.net/ru/news/3570663/kosinyak-kamysh-prizval-ukrainu-priznat-volynskuyu-tragediyu/sortby/tree/order/desc/page/1#comments

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Off-Topic / The agreement in Alaska between the US and Russia. [43]

No thoughts until we see a document.

News / Why should Poland consider pursuing a strategic alliance with Russia? [396]

A Polish nuke - is an even bigger impossibility than a Ukrainian one.

No one will allow you to have even one. Not even the capability to develop it.

It won't be Russia and China kicking down your door, and searching your nuclear scientists - it will be your own EU and American "partners".

They will do all the work for us.

America will sanction you to death, before you gain your first 50 kilograms of plutonium.

History / Anniversary of Soviet Invasion [116]


Had read about your family before.

Very impressive.

This is why it surprises me, when you treat them with the degree of disrespect that you do (as written by your self here, sir).

You don't think - surely - that such a magnificent intellectual specimen as yourself was born out of the "vacuum"?

I'm curious what you think you owe them? In what ways you think you may have disappointed them? In what sense - could they not imagine, what you built?

History / PAŃSTWO - A Tale of Polish Occupation [27]

Nice Grunnie)

-//--

It's hard to write PANSTWO.

I don't know what to write.

I tried:

1) Two Russian gravediggers burying a Polish occupation bureaucrat.

2) A young Russian girl, getting herself ready for an interview at PANSTWO headquarters for an interview to be Secretary.

-//--

PANSTWO is missing something...

You can't build a story from these pieces...

Is it a comedy? Is it a horror?

What can we learn about the human condition, by analyzing relations between Poles and Russians in this fictional setting?

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


I will write some PANSTWO today

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


They want from us Karelia and Ingria.

This would allow them to connect by land bridge with their Finno-Ugric brothers in Estonia. You would have a Greater Finland like within short historic episodes.

One problem for Finns and Estonians - the largest city in their country would be St. Petersburg.

85% of their population would be ethnically Russian.


Never lived in their entire history with Russians (though lindependent largely thanks to Russia).

They are more used to Turks, Italians, and Austrians.

I think they "like" the idea of unity with Russia, but don't understand what this would entail.


Surprisingly close to us!

I was surprised after visiting.

60%+ support us against Ukraine (it's why they don't send anything).

Super powerful cultural position of the Church - even as everyone ignores it.

Some historic memory of Russians freeing them from the Turks, and some consequent gratitude.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]

There will have to be some give and take, if ever such alliances are forged.

No one will get quite what they expect.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


And here we are - Warsaw Pact minus Baltics, Romania, and Bulgaria - ahaha!

Bulgarians are strange. I really don't understand them. On the one hand, they seem like Russians v. 0.9, on the other hand they seem to me like Greeks and Turks.

They gave us the alphabet, the faith, and shaped our history - but now they are curious animals.

Romania - schizophrenic country that no one could give a f*ck about.

Baltics... well - it's no good to have NATO so close to our second largest city.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]

I said this before - but when we combine German discipline and manufacturing excellence with Russian resources and power - you get a combination that makes everybody lay bricks in their pants.

At 240M people we can already start spreading our shoulders.

If we add the Poles, and Hungarians - we have almost America's population.

Give us Ukraine - and you have Empire.

German discipline, Russian raw horsepower, Polish messianism, Hungarian trauma - can you imagine the toxic mix?

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]

@Bratwurst Boy

I grew up around a guy that was a tank battalion commander in the GDR, and a guy that was a regular infantryman there.

Both had nothing but good things to say about their time in Germany.

After things fell apart, the tank commander guy went to visit his old colleagues in 1999. The infantryman travelled with me, together, to visit an old German friend around 2010 in a small village outside Leipzig.

Russians and Germans make good friends. We get each other.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


Imagine you have spent all your life commanding Soviet Army soldiers...

Suddenly you are promoted and sent to Germany.

You are given the Rolls Royce of soldiers (former Prussians) - under your command. Of course you will notice the differences!

These are not just better soldiers than you ever had access to, but maybe the best soldiers in the world. They benefit from 250 years of non stop drill. They are Germans - that fulfill orders to the T.

Of course you will start to hate your own men, and view them as incompetents.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


Nothing is better than a good Russian hat.

But to get such a hat as a kid... privileged little boy you must have been.

--//-

In a similar vein, I read a formerly classified report of a commander of the Soviet Forces in Germany. In it, he discusses the difference between the Soviet and German troops under his command.

This was a most hilarious read.

Most of the time, he spends sh*tting on the Soviet Army and the Soviet soldier specifically. Point by point, explaining how the German soldier is superior.

Understand - this is written by a Soviet commander, and yet he still cannot contain his disgust with his own men. Haha!

1) Germans do not lie nearly to the same extent as our men. If you receive a statement from a German soldier, you can assume that events likely unfolded just as he described. If you receive a statement from a Soviet soldier, you should assume that the truth is the 180 degree opposite.

2) German soldiers display much more individual initiative. They don't need everything to be explained step by step.

3) Germans do not shield each other from investigation and punishment in the same way Soviet soldiers do. It's not considered a honorable to conceal someone's malfeasance.

4) German units have substantially less "missing" pieces of inventory. They don't lose stuff, don't steal it, and try to maintain it in good working condition.

5) German respect to hierarchy, and military officers specifically is supreme. At the same time, a Soviet soldier could routinely punch his commander in the face, or demonstratively avoid duties - even if this lands him in military prison.

6) Germans are much more educated than Soviet soldiers.

7) Germans are much more physically fit. Paradoxically, this still doesn't make them "tougher" than Soviet soldiers. One of the few points where the Soviet commander had something good to say, was about the seemingly infinite capacity of his soldiers to endure suffering. The Germans are still viewed as gentle, and reliant on enablers.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]

In case anyone is interested in reading the tweet:

x.com/egor_avinkin/status/1949592748920590402?s=46

Unfortunately it is all in Russian.

Summary is: guy's grandma and grandpa worked as diplomats in the GDR. He's going through their stuff, and finds this memo.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


It is the German burger speaking!

"What about our shops?!"

Yesterday I was reading a memo which was handed out to Soviet diplomatic personnel in East Germany.

It explains some interesting differences between Russians and Germans, and why the Soviet diplomats have to respect the culture of the locals:

1) Capitalistic development has left a mark on the German psyche. A typical German emerges from amongst the petty bourgeoise. He strongly manifests the character traits of a small time shopkeeper.

2) If the clock strikes 12:00 - the German will drop everything and leave for lunch.

3) Germans do not wear "valenki" (Russian wool boots)

4) Almost all Germans have televisions, washing machines, radios, refrigerators, and gas stoves.

5) Two German phrases are provided to illustrate some points: "Befehl ist Befehl" (an order is an order), "Klein aber Mein" (small, but mine).

6) It is not viewed as polite to arrive at a queue, and ask who is last in line.

7) In the presence of a woman, you only smoke with her permission. In someone's home, you smoke only with the permission of the host. Oddly enough - it says that you cannot light a woman's cigarette with a match, if someone else had already used that match to light up.

8) German children move out of the parental home, once they become adults. Germans may go to each houses for celebrations, give each other gifts, and even plan vacations jointly - but each has his own delineated space. Parents do not interfere in the lives of their children, under any circumstances.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


Right now there are 45K American personnel in Germany.

Earlier this year, if you recall, Trump was contemplating pulling out as many as 20,000 of them. In fact, at some point, he said he wants to pull US forces out of Europe entirely.

45K is a drop in the ocean for a country as rich as Germany.

This is not some Djibouti or Greenland, where a whole country can depend on a military base.

You have almost 85 million people, and a $5T GDP, and you are crying - "Oh, what will we do when US soldiers leave? How will the casinos and strip clubs continue operating? To whom will we now sell our sausages!? Why God!?"

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


Legally - Germany has no binding obligation to keep US forces within its territory indefinitely.

You can kick the Americans out unilaterally, and there's nothing they will be able to do about it. In some instances, you may have to provide a notice ahead of time, or instead simply refuse to renew an agreement when it expires.

Lots of countries have kicked out American forces. The Philippines, Thailand, Libya, Uzbekistan, but most famously... France!

Charles de Gaulle withdrew France from NATO's integrated military command and then demanded all foreign troops leave French soil. And they left.

The US and NATO were forced to relocate all their sh*t to Belgium and West Germany. Even after France rejoined NATO command in 2009 - no US troops returned, and there are none to this day.


Look, despite various recent events, we still live in a world of laws.

There is no circumstance under which Washington is able to just say "no". That would trigger a major diplomatic scandal, and likely cause a wave of backlash among other NATO allies. I bet everyone, from Japan to Bahrain would feel a chill, if they realized they cannot kick the Americans out even if they try.

America is free to pull out all the stops in trying to pressure you to reverse your decision, but it cannot outright refuse to comply. Then that would be what we call an "occupation" - and a major impingement on your sovereignty.

America has a big toolset it can use to "punish" you, of course. If you look at France and Turkey, you can see what America does when somebody begins to act too independently:

1) They start restricting arms sales to your country. Want an F-35? Tough luck.

2) They'll suspend intelligence sharing and any inter-military cooperation.

3) They'll pressure you diplomatically, trying to isolate you, by telling others to avoid doing business with you. They'll use the media to paint you as a freeloader, and your leadership as fundamentally irresponsible.

4) They'll support your opposition parties, giving them an international platform by hosting them in the White House and allowing them to address Congress.

5) They'll cut all your aid and grants - if any such exist.

6) They'll introduce tariffs or tear up trade deals.

7) If they are really angry - they'll start targeting your financial system.

8) If they are really, really, really angry - they'll deploy their whole covert toolset against you. Cyber strikes, psychological operations in social media, and false flags.

That's it! If you can resist all that - YOU CAN BE FREE! That's the maximum extent of what they are capable of.

So if you have the balls to stand up and leave, like De Gaulle, it is possible to do so. People have tried, and survived.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


I think very low.

Maybe 5% of nominal strength.

Tons of systems have been lost, but these guys usually know when they are about to be hit and vacate their stations.

This is for primary defenses, like S-300, Patriot, NASAMs, etc.

For the guys that ride in trucks and fire machine guns at Shaheds - I think the casualty rate is zero.

For the guys that operate Shilkas, Iris-Ts, Gepard's, etc - I think also 5% or so.

They have radars. They know when something is coming that they already failed to intercept.

They just walk to the nearest tree line and watch their equipment explode.

-//-

Bottom line, no one suffers like infantry.

This is why I respect Yuri Butusov, the editor in chief of the Ukrainian nationalist website censor.net.ua

After three years of talking about, he finally enlisted - and enlisted as an infantryman.

He could have chosen anything else, but he decided to become an infantryman. Not even an officer.

Amazing. Hats off to him. Genuinely hope he is not killed.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


There is no data.

Russia made it a state secret after the first few months. Ukraine has kept it secret throughout.

There are articles in the Washington Post, which claimed that Western politicians had "a better idea of Russian losses than Ukrainian ones".

That is, Ukraine does not even share with Washington or Brussels the true extent of their losses.

What I provided was educated conjecture - no more. I think it's in the ballpark, but there's no way we'll know the true numbers for another 10-15 years.

Some future government will release the full details of the losses. In the USSR, we didn't know the true extent of losses in WW2 until the whole thing collapsed and the archives were unsealed. So... 45 years in that case.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


This is an illogical statement.

It is more correct to say that "a large proportion of the professional and career military" has been attritted.

Even with horrific casualty rates - some portion of personnel survive. Perhaps half or 3/4 - depending on the sector of the front and time of year.

There are several hundred thousand men, that have been fighting for 3 years.

Among the officer corps - maybe up to 90% are still alive. Captains, majors, lieutenant colonels, colonels, generals - we lost maybe a few dozen. Junior lieutenants and lieutenants are the ones that die.

Among the rank and file personnel not assigned to assaults - I think there may have been a turnover of 20-40% over the past three years. Still terrifying numbers, especially by NATO standards where a formation suffering 30% attrition is considered to no longer be battle capable.

In the assault formations, the attrition rate can reach 70-90%. If we are talking about convicts and other disposables - then closer to 90%.

These frontline units obviously differ amongst each other as well:

1) Artillery crews - 10-25% attrition (all causes)

2) Armor crews - 20-40% (all causes)

3) Logistics, signals, engineer - 10-30% (all causes)

4) Finally - the salt of the earth - motor riflemen: 25-45%. (all causes)

-//--

Bottom line, even amongst the motor riflemen - I think the casualties over 3 years amount to a maximum of 45% at an aggregate, blended calculation.

Certainly - there have been units which have been completely wiped out. Some units have been wiped out twice-thrice over (e.g. 810th Naval Infantry Brigade). But that's still the exception.

Off-Topic / USA News and Poland - part 16 [1071]


If you expect Alien to know what the Didache is... then maybe you are not so smart as I thought you are.

News / Why should Poland consider pursuing a strategic alliance with Russia? [396]


Goddamn Indians and Pakistanis.

They seem to have no "brakes".

Even Bangladesh - has more people than Russia.

-//--

You should be happy - at least they are native English speakers (at least those that emigrate).

Genealogy / Origins of Polish Genetics [17]


This alone.... should make an intelligent person stop and think.

Either you are allowing Russia to "own" all the bad chapters of your history, and you treat yourself as some newborn babe - innocent to the sins of the world...

or you admit you are as ancient as Russia, but simultaneously take some responsibility.

To listen to them, they were created in 861 AD, and were then rapidly placed into some cryogenic chamber - to be opened only in 1991. Emerging blameless like the Son of God.

Every sin is chalked up to Russia's account.

News / Why should Poland consider pursuing a strategic alliance with Russia? [396]


Turkey is doing a terrible job at it. Malaysia has a TFR of 1.5 or so.

Our Tatars are also forgetting to reproduce.

It seems even Islam is not impervious to modern pressures on the family.

Just wait for those Sudans and Malis to catch up in development, and they will stop making kids abruptly too.

Genealogy / Origins of Polish Genetics [17]


It's the Volhyn stuff.

Every time you guys get close to some kind of understanding, Volhyn blows things up again.

Ukrainians GENUINELY do not understand you, or your position. To be completely honest - neither did I - until I spent years on this forum.

They really sincerely think that you are "stirring the pot" for no good reason, other than that you know they are weak right now and rely on your help.

They feel you are abusing the leverage, in order to make them admit something terrible which will be forever a stain on their national heroes. This - while they defend you from Russian imperialism with their bodies.

-//-

I even watched an interview where Sikorski and Sonya featured - and it was clear there that Sikorski was shocked at the genuine level of incomprehension he encountered on the subject.

Being a diplomat, he used some very kind interpretation of what was happening.

If Russians are infantile, then Ukrainians are twice as infantile. They think they are some perfect Marvel superheroes, and everyone should kiss their feet. They have no capacity to admit any wrongdoing, because their conception of self is so impossibly fragile.

They are building a Ukrainian national identity with scotch tape and glue... this identity is not yet ready to collide head on with historic events like ethnic cleansings.

You heard it from them - we are Orcs, and they are Elves. Elves are perfect.