News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Polsat is a Polish private capital media company and is more independent that both: state own company and foreigh own company. Same goes to wp.pl news portal which I've found much more balanced than onet.pl.

@pawian, I'm seriously starting to believe that you are suffering from an acute combination of inferiority complex (foreign=better) mixed with pure naivety.

And your misperception about Western Europe truly amazes me. Fortunately, this is not something that the younger generation of Poles shares with older Poles because we wuld be in a serious trouble.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


That's a very naive thought. Mass media are not the tools for describing the reality but for creating it.


I suggest that you learn about mass media markets in the other european countries instead of talking nonsense. Countries like Germany or France would never allow, and never did, such a concentration of foreign-owned media in their own countries. Same goes for banking sector as well btw.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

The only opinion polls which really counts are the elections. The rest are more or less a psychological warfare aimed at discuraging the opponents and/or mobilizing its own electorate.

Except, perhaps, for those much more precisem and much more expensive, polls which are made for internal use of political parties and which are not being shared with mass media.


Since Interia was just recently bought by Polsat, they may be more free than mass media owned by a foreign capital such as onet, newsweek, TVN or fakt...

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I was against the 'quarantine measures' right from the beginning and critized Szumowski and his graphs on every given opportunity. Yet the truth is that "total opposition" which was always against everything that PiS says or does by default had suspiciously the same opinion as the government did about measures to battle a "deadly pandemia".

Yes, the only time those POKO morons could be useful and have a different opinion than the government (and to become a remotely useful for once) they remain silent and even encouraged more radical measure at the beginning of the quarantine.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Not from my home but from a rented flat. My home, my family, my friends and my future is in Poland.


I do pay taxes in both: the UK, where I work, and in Poland where I co-own a small business

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

PO on the other hand wanted to take in muslim "refugees" who had no intention to work and once invited would stay in Poland forever and would breed like rabbits. In the UK even the 3rd generation of them is still not assimilated into society.

Poland is politically not ready for Konfederacja taking over yet so I'll have to vote for a lesser evil to prevent a greater evil from taking over. There's no point of being childish and saying that 'if I can't have it my way I don't care who is going to win'.

There's still a difference: Trzaskowski represents cultural marxism or simply put an anti-culture, which takes its toll in the Western world.

And when it comes to economy the difference between Trzaskowski and Duda are miniscule. Both are statists who believe in overgrown beaurocracy and high taxation. Trzaskowski was a PO MEP, and between 2013-2015 also a minister and a secretary of a state. Should i quote again the list of taxes raised by PO between 2008-15?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]



I wrote as stated. And I'll stand by it

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


The difference is, you see, that socialist regulations in economy can screw up the economy for years, decades maybe but it is reversible once more savvy political party, such as Konfederacja, takes it over.

Neomarxism and its iterations such as: multikulti, mass immigration from muslim countries, LGBT propaganda and depravation in schools can destroy a healthy tissue of a society for generations to come. And in most cases is irreversible.

I can observe it on a daily basis in the UK or when I travel around Europe. It's smart to learn from the mistrakes of the others before commiting them yourrself.

That's why I'm going to vote for a lesser evil, that is Andrzej Duda.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]



:-)


One cannot lose a debate which didn't take place. If he was in different situation and would be losing to Trzaskowski it would make sense to accept it.

Like I said before, Duda went to Polsat to attract centrist voters, there was nothing for him in TVN, a TV station which attracts mostly a certain type of audience which is hostile to Duda and wouldn't vote for him no matter what.


TVN excels in a certain type of one-sided cynical "journalism" and doesn't even trying to hide it. Think about them as CNN but even more cynical. It's the same cesspool as TVP just on the opposite political side.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


A smart man picks his fights and does it in convenient time and place for himself. Participating in TVN's hostile debate hold nothing of value for Duda right now, and it would be only worth accepting if he was losing the presidential race. Duda is not in such situation.

Accepting unfavorable terms when he doesn't have to, and taking part in a spectacle which doesn't benefit him, has nothing to do with courage. Only fools are getting easily provoked by childlish taunts.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Giving an interview in centrist Polsat, where he has a chance to convince some new voters to support him is better than participating in TVN's set up. He is criticized by not accepting those terms by those who wishes him to lose and are frustrated that he didn't take the bait. Even a blind man can see that.

I said it before and I'll say it again': it is Trzaskowski who needs a debate more than Duda, because he needs to shorten the distance to the leader. He may not even have a choice but to accept another a debate in TVP when (or maybe rather if) he get that proposition from Duda.

For those who are fans of boxing imagine it as a fight between a raigning champion and a challenger. It's 12 round already and the champ is winning on points. The only chance a challenger has to win the fight is by KO. And the champ plays it smart: he dodges, he takes the fight to the distance, he can play a waiting game and try to drain his opponent's stamina, he may occassionaly punch when he sees an opening but he doesn't need to take risk and go for a KO in order to win...

BTW. Here's a link to a great boxing fight: Glowacki vs Huck

youtube.com/watch?v=XvNzums0hT0&ab_channel=PremierBoxingChampions

PS: by no means I'm not suggesting that Trzaskowski is Glowacki in this fight ;-)

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


A divine intervention, huh? It's good to know that a total opposition has carefully planned strategy of winning the upcoming elections...

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I agree with those numbers except Kosiniak-Kamysz 80% votes for Trzaskowski.
Kamysz electorate are conservative countryside voters who are in vast majority against LGBT propaganda. Trzaskowski can't count on more than 50% of their votes, and that's already a very optimistic estimation for him. So max. 260 000 votes instead of 367 000

So together still under 3 million votes

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I'm just simply referring to that distorted perception of PO being a pro free-market economic libertarian party which is false on many levels. If you're looking for that look no further than to Konfederacja.

PO was, and still is, a political party of statists and beaurocrats.


To be clear, I was referring to your political views and your profile as a POKO and Trzaskowski supporter and not to you as a person. I'm sure you are a decent guy, being a teacher and doing your voluntary work, just politically naive.


I give a credit where credit is due. I support Konfederacja and I do agree with them more than with any other political party but I've got my own opinions as well. If you could raise your head above POKO vs PiS tribal war you would understand.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

@pawian, I will share a little secret with you simply because you will not be able to utilize it cause you would have to change everything about yourself in order to do so which is impossible. So here it is:

The main problem with "total opposition" are people like you.

That is politicians, political activists and columnists and voters who are living in a bubble and replaced deep analysis and logical thinking with some pieces of memorized poor quality propaganda and predictable conditioned responses [just like Pavlov's dogs].

Sure, PiS voters and activists are not much better than you but at least they have some skilled politicians on top, like Kaczynski, who knows how to play the game and how to steer the emotions into political gains.

As long as you won't be able to understand the reality as it, you will continue to lose. Which is fine with me because I disagree with virtually almost everything which you stand for.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


That's a tactical move on Duda's side.
He is positioning himself as a leading presidential candidate who will shape the debate and not merely accept Trzaskowski's and TVN terms.
Trzaskowski, as a runner-up will accept Duda's terms or he will have to debate with an empty chair.
And Duda can live without this debate. In order to win all he needs to do is cool off the political emotions and controversies for the next 12 days

Simply put Trzaskowski needs to get aggressive in order to gain some new votes and Duda has to present himself as a peace-loving and reasonable guy for the next 2 weeks.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Yes, PiS is more direct with their socialist approach to economy and yet PO was also a statist party who wanted to steer the economy with an overblown beaurocratic apparatus. PO is perceived by some as pro-market party thanks to an information bubble created by mainstream media. The facts are different.

PO has not lowered the taxes but raised them when they had a chance to rule in 2008-15. They've raised VAT tax, raised fuel and alcohol duties by 15%, robbed OFE for 150 billion pln. And they didn't lower a personal income tax as they claimed they will before the elections.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


The truth be told it is often better to deal with completely uneducated simple folks with common sense than with sub-educated fools with a uni degrees.

I met some wise simple farmers in my life and I've also encountered some 'educated' fools who shared their cherished pearls of wisdom with me. And even those who received decent education often fell into a trap of synchronizing their system of beliefs with a group of which they aspired to be part of. Any independent and/or controversial thought that wouldn't fit to that image had to be eradicated.

One particular example: an educated guy told me that only fools believe in conspiracies and educated people should not believe in such things.
So I asked him what happened to Julius Caesar, has he died of an old age or maybe some group of conspirators helped him a little bit with knives?

And Guy Fawkes: has he or has he not secretly plotted with the group of others to blow up the parliament? What about Adam Weishaupt: did he or did he not existed and was active in XIX-century Bavaria?

He didn't have any [pre-made] answers to those questions and I believe he didn't even know who Adam Weishaupt was back then..


Most people, like yourself, have short memory. I [un]fortunately have a very long one. It greatly helps with coding but also with analyzing political life as a whole and not only as separated single events. Unfortunately, it also means that I remember bullcrap that some people told me even a decade ago or so...

I remember what was going on back then in 2015, and I remember overall emotions pulsating in Polish society surrounding a Muslim "refugees" problem.

Support for has PO's has started to deteriorate at a fast pace - finally granting PiS a majority in parliament - after E. Kopacz agreed to take in ~4 thousand "refugees", a decission enforced on them by Germany and the EU. Once they realized how unpopular that decission was with the Poles they tried to withdraw from it but it was too late. They've already lost their credibility and people voted for PiS who was very anti "refugees".

I suggest that you dig into Polish newspapers and newsportals achives from 2015 and refresh your memory.

And here's a link to American Huffingtop Post from 2015 for a good start:

bit.ly/31yb3rD

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I do remember it and I was active in aforementioned elections.

Let me refresh your memory: the main reason that Poles voted for PiS in 2015 was a "refugee" crisis. Poles said no to enforced, militant multikulti ideology coming from the EU [and Germany].

The rest is not worth commenting. And now:

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Social programs such as 500+ [year 2016] and others were introduced after the parliamentary 2015 elections. People voted for Duda in April 2015 and also for PiS in fall 2015 for different reasons. Failing to understand the reality results in perpetual defeat on the side of total opposition.

@pawian, spare me your empty replies, unless you have something of value to bring to the table. I'm waiting for:


More substance and less word ping-pong.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


PiS won a parliamentary majority in 2015 elections and then again in 2019. No other political party in Poland has ever won a parliamentary majority even once ever before. So much for that analysis.

You see, in order to win first you have to make right choices based on real information. Propaganda, mind that, is for the masses to keep them excited/motivated/discouraged. The political party has to operate on hard data not on wishful thinking in order to succeed.

The problem with "total opposition" is that majority of their politicians, think-tanks, political collumnists and supporters have very deluded outlook.

Those halfwits truly believe that they are the true elite of Poland and they are loosing only because that pesky uneducated massess cannot see their greatness and they don't vote for them. They refuse to understand that they represent nothing of value for Polish society and in the age of widespread internet access and info exchange they cannot stupify the society any longer on such a scale with controlled access to information as before. The "king" is naked.

The same process can be observed in the US under the Trump administration. The Liberals in the US believe that they are a true elites, a cream of the crop and cannot understand why people are not voting for them. The only answer they've managed to squiz out from their "elite" brains is that is because the voters are stupid/racists/backwards/don't understand what's good for them. That's the state of the "elites" these days...

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

It seems that the 1st round of presidential elections sunk another political dogma: high voters turnout works against Duda.

Last parliamentary election sunk two dogrmas: high voters turnout works against PiS and also that: voting for Konfederacja is a lost vote because they will never get into a parliament.


A day has passed and no one explained here where is Trzaskowski going to get those ~3 700 000 missing votes in order to win in the 2nd round.

I'm waiting for some [half]decent analysis based not purely on a reality distortion field combined with high dose of wishful thinking if possible.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

K.Bosak has sent a message to his voters asking them to be active in the 2nd round and admitted that he will vote for a lesser evil - that is Andrzej Duda - in an interview for Express Biedrzyckiej.

And Holownia has supported Trzaskowski - well technically he said that he will vote against Duda and not for Trzaskowski. Same thing.

And Tiger Kosiniak-Kamysz is in deep depression and said nothing yet.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Nothing will surprise me on TVN


So, yes, my word about K.Bosak results:

The appetites, as always, were bigger but his result is overall satisfactory. At 6.75% he kept all the Konfederacja's followers: they have scored 7.6% in 2019 parliamentary elections but will lower voters turnout than in presidential elections so the absolute number of voters is very similar, at 1.3 mln. K.Bosak has scored ~50k more. Our voters and didn't get swallowed by more popular candidates like the backers of K-Kamysz and R. Biedron.

I'm content that both Konfederacja and K.Bosak have loyal and ideological electorate. We have to build those numbers up without compromising the overall quality of the supporters.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

OK, PKW have annouced results from 99,78% voting polls so it's time a quick summary. The numbers are incomplete but let's do a little bit of statistics and some simple math

Total number of voters in Poland: ~ 29 526 533

Voter turnout: 64,4 % so ~ 19,015,087 people voted in the 1st round of a presidential elections.

=================================

A.Duda 43,67% and ~ 8 412 000 votes

R.Trzaskowski 30,34% ~ 5 845 000

S.Holownia 13,85% ~ 2 667 000

K. Bosak - 6,75 % ~ 1 300 000

Kosiniak-Kamysz - 2,37% ~ 457 000

Biedroń - 2,21 % ~ 425 000

=================================

Let's assume that the 2nd round will have similar voter turnout. What do we see?

In order to win the 2nd round of elections the candidate have to gather a little over 9 500 000 votes.

A.Duda will have to attract ~ 1 100 000 more voters to score over 50% and win.

and R.Trzaskowski will have to convince ~ 3 700 000 more voters to score over 50% and win.

Let's start with a simple fact that Trzaskowski taking over 100% of Holownia voters is a political fiction, even if Holownia would encourage his electorate to vote for him. It never happened in any democratic election anywhere in the world. It just doesn't work like that. On top of that many Holownia voters are simply centrists and also cannibalized K.Kamysz and Biedron voters (have you asked yourself why both of them scored so low despite Trzaskowski permanently balancing on ~30%, natural POKO electorate?).

But let's be very generous: Trzaskowski is going to take over 70% of them, that is 1,866,900‬.
And 30% for A. Duda, that is ~800 000

And now, K.Bosak voters. Most of them will not vote for Trzaskowski, but again, I'm feeling generous today: 50% will vote for Trzaskowski ~650 000. 50% for A . Duda so + ~650 000 for him

Let's move on...but wait but A.Duda has 9,862,000 votes already and would win the elections. Even if Trzaskowski would get 100% of the remaining votes from K.Kamysz and Biedron, which is again a political fiction...

In order for A.Duda to loose the elections there would have some disaster to happen in the next 2 weeks. And I'm talking about an eathquake combined with a biblical plagues. And also a major miracle on Trzaskowski's side at the same time.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It also shows that 70% don't want Trzaskowski :-) I love those "deep" analysis. The internet is full of them today

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]



;-)

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Lenka, all I see is Kukiz #2, or better yet, new Petru created out of thin air. I'm just surprised that some Poles are still falling for that trick.

And yes, he doesn't exist outside of presidential elections because he doesn't have deep political structures. He is not a new political power but a shooting star created and aimed at absorbing a certain centrist/undecided electorate in a current presidential elections.


That's why I'm not going to distort it by commenting on exit polls and not on official results.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


That guy has powerful backers. He is nothing on his own


At least now they can blame "pandemia" and not their own incompetence for the failure. This should also be a main line of defense for Kidawa-Blonska ;-)

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Lenka, are we talking about my feelings or about the results of the elections? :-)