The Polish Economy and its future

i think the Polish economy will become much more efficient if the people without jobs leave abroad and the one's who stay have jobs - also if some of the people abroad send money home this will be a short term boost.....but in the long run, its not so much that we need all of our people back, but in order to sustain a modern economy you need growth..... the one child per family will really screw Poland in the future, small families are not optimal in terms of growth oriented economics because then you have 1 child paying taxes to support 2 seniors in a sense..... our population demographics in the future will be a big problem -- so we either have to bring in immigrants or raise the birthrate for our country to improve..... my guess is things will get better overall, but Poles need to change a lot about their mentality as well.....

Population is already in the negative... if you read all the infomations available from various resources. This is also visible among families.

Having children is somehow not popular among Europeans nations (I presume), and specially in East Europe (and Russia...the most famous among population decline).

However, it is not so easy to persuade people in this most personal of decisions. At the moment, it does not seem to become better...that is... a population balance (as I mentioned, we are in negative territory...a considerable margin).

Bringing in immigrants is a good idea only when they are capable and suitable. What I mean is that the immigrant should have real intention to be a Pole in his future (and for his generation). He must have the will to work, live and see the future in Poland. He should be stable (mentally), and have basic manners. That is to say, 'a good prospect', a good human being.

The Polish mentality is acceptable I think. People here are welcoming mostly. However, those with inferiority complex seem to be more violent (but this is common everywhere in the world). Also, if you talk about demography/population... by looking at families (relationships) around Poland, it does not seem that having many children (or any children sometimes) is thought of being important.

However... with less population we have more land. More wealth, and less people. It should be then that the remaining people can have more benefits. However, it has been prooved recently (living experience of Poland) that this is not the truth. Property prices are at their peak, food prices are so high! (there have been a few protests on such high prices....which seem so unreasonable).

i don't think that "its not popular" ......its just that its a multifaceted dilemma.... some people obviously cannot have children, and some people have trouble finding partners because of social issues, etc - so that already cuts a certain part of the population out of procreating.... but most importantly the people who are having children are having much smaller families than in previous generations without looking at the big picture.....

they have smaller families for one major reason, they do not believe they can afford a big family.... this is very general, but true for the most part..... this line of thinking will only get you in deeper trouble though with how a modern economy is run..... i do think some of it is selfishness in a sense, but i think a majority of the time its just fear that: "hey i cant afford anymore kids, how am i going to feed this child, etc..."

i remember reading an article among ethnic europeans and the amount of children people wanted compared with the amount they were having was drastically different.... for instance, the amount of kids wanted by by europeans would make the birthrate on average 2.3 in all european countries, well above replacement and good for our type of economy.... but the real birthrate in Poland is around 1.2....we'd need to almost double the amount of children we would be having.....

the goal should be trying to get people that are already having children to have more, and not convince people who simply dont want them.....

but again its multifaceted, for me i think a better standard of living and security will most likely increase the birthrate in Poland to about 1.7-1.8, but you have to get to at least 2.1 to have minimal growth because of infant mortality.....

its hard to judge things like these though because things always change, revolutions take place, etc... the trends that are happening now are not set in stone and things do change, so i am not too worried..... a short birthrate decline is not the worst thing either considering pollution and the size of our country..... but i really dont think its optimal to have a continuous decline right, we will be screwed that way :(

like you said some people dont like having children, and maybe its partially genetic in a sense.... so if all the people who don't have children stop procreating, only the people who like having kids will be left right in the next generation to pass their genes on.... knowing some Poles that i do, especially the older generation, if contraception was availabe at the time they were having kids i dont know if they would of had children in a sense you know..... before you had to have a family, it wasnt really a choice..... now it is.....


living in Canada i know lots of different people from all over right, immigration here is a motto considering the history of the country..... i like it in a sense, but for Poland it would be different since there is a ethnic population and the people coming in are foreigners..... in Canada everyone is a foreigner in a sense right.... so its a bit different....

i really dont know what advice to give Poles who live in Poland on who they should let in in a sense.... to me i think i could accept anyone from anywhere aslong as they were good people, etc, but i guess that is my experience living in Canada.... but im not sure Poles would agree with that type of thinking and would maybe rather let in people from Ukraine and Belarus that are more similar in terms of culture.....Canada in a sense is an ever changing culture built on many different immigrant groups, you cannot really compare that in a sense.....

one thing i will tell you though is that in terms of business, its easier to do with non Poles..... my dad loves doing business with Canadians, Persians, etc..... its something about doing business with your own among Poles that doesnt work out too well for some reason... at least that has been my experience, its like both sides are very stingy and cheep..... i wish Poles had a deal like the Jews, where a Jewish person providing the service or goods would give the buyer a deal..... with Poles its both trying to get a deal....

cheers :D

Mmmmm... Sorry I asked, sorry I responded.

Lef, do you know that in 40 years the whole Australia will probably turn into a desert ?

yip a desert , frizzel and fry ....

What do state your facts on.

Will that mean that being a desert it will have plenty of oil like kuwait? I hope so.

Maybe in a million years :)

Interesting forecast from the IMF on GDP fall for Poland in 2009 which is quite a turn around from their last published prediction. Good to see that the politicians are still sticking to a predicted growth in the economy. Which just goes to show that politicans the world over are wildly optimistic or stupid.

How will the Polish Economy perform in the coming decade... 2010 and onwards... ur opinions please...

Poland avoided recesion - there was only slow down.

USA has new debt.

China is stronger after the crisis.

..which the EU has to compete with, genius. A weak US economy is not necessarily good for the EU because the US buys a lot of German exports which in turn buy Polish / French / Spanish exports.. on and on. Lack of German orders will hurt job growth as well.

The EU competes with China too...

Not good.Basically Poland produces products competitive to german ones and does not have a hardcore branch a trademark to rely on.

I truly believe that Poland has a great future - however I also believe that future must be cared for tenderly and that this is a vulnerable time to be an emerging market.

Lets get to the problems later and answer the first part of the question first.

Firstly I have been in business for 4years in Poland and living here fulltime for 3years - I am engaged to a Polishman and we are expecting our first child any day now - I have made Poland my home and plan to bring up our family live and do business here. Its been an interesting time these last years and its very interesting being a foreigner in trying to do business here. I have alot of stories, some good some bad and have made alot of observations on business and life in Poland 2009.

I am Irish and have in my 3 years in Poland heard many politicans claim many times that they wanted to turn Poland into the new ireland, or to mimic our super fast economic growth - the celtic Tiger we called it at home. Yeah on paper up to the start of 2008 Ireland looked like it was the success story of europe - in 1990 ireland had massive unemployment, in the region of 20% and we had the highest national debt per head of capita in the world. Fast forward to 2003 and Ireland had about 1/2% unemployment - about 300,000 emigrant workers(huge amounts from poland) no national debt and one of the highest minimum wages in europe - in 13years the country had managed to turn itself around dramatically and we had overcome the black years of the 80's and were now deemed one of the richest countries in europe.

Today 2009 and there is a very different picture - unemployment was at 11.4% in april 2009, the irish government are borrowing in the region of 77million a day just to run the country - Irish banking is on its knees and wants the Irish government to rescue it - the cost of living is one of the higest in europe, the property market has collapsed and has left an estimated 340,000families in negative equity their homes it is claimed will not be in positive equity until 2020.

So what the hell happened - The first problem was far too much reliance on the USA - when the USA went down Ireland went down. Multinational companies who located to ireland for tax incentives and our educated, low waged work force - began to have problems and they decided the recession was a good 'excuse' to decide to leave. The banking crisis and finally over reliance on property and the a huge property bubble in ireland, over investment in the construction sector, most of the Irish wealth was actually based on credit and not savings, the banks were allowing people to use the equity in their homes to borrow, creditcard debt increased, people borrowed for cars, holidays, second properties, overseas properties, Dolce and Gabana designer clothes, people quite literally went mad, however they had to pay all this money back and once the credit crisis came and mortgages increased they were in troubl. Lastly the miss management and over spending by the Irish elected government of the wealth generated between 1990 and 2007- the government blew the profits of the good times and the running costs of the country were simply too high. Nothing was put aside for a rainy day... they also did not listen to economic advisers who knew that the economy was inflated they thought they new better.

How does this all relate to Poland.
Many of the Polish Politicans wanted to copy Ireland -

1/ Offer incentives to the multinationals to come and invest in Poland- low wages and tax incentives would create employment, DELL in Lodz - Sharp in Torun -e.t.c.

2/ Open the doors to all the banks - have you ever seen so many banks open in such a short time - if people became more comfortable with credit and were borrowing from the banks to buy apartments, cars go on holidays it would give the assumption that Poland was a booming country, having to pay back the credit also made the job market way more competitive, people would have to work to keep paying the debt, if not they would lose their apartments.

My own experience is that alot of the companies that come to Poland have no real interest in Poland and they buy Polish business, drive it really hard to make as much money at as low a cost basis as possible and then take all the profits out of the country, thats what happened in Ireland - we had a hugely inflated GDP but none of the money stayed in the country, once the country was not of use to them anymore i.e they found a cheaper workforce and more favorable tax incentives elsewhere they left. Poland needs to learn from this. Many polish business people sold home grown businesses to large foreign companies, for massive money, many of these businesses should have belonged to the Polish people but the kaos after communism meant that many Polish businesses ended up in private hands and many individual made millions from businesses which essentially should have belonged to the Polish people. Unfortunately I have met many un nationalistic and exceptionally greedy dishonourable Polish people who are happy to sit with me over dinner and boast about how much they stole after communism.

The way forward I think is to ensure that new businesses and ideas are supported, buy polish products and support Polish businesses - I think that there should be more business partnerships with foreigners so that all the wealth is not taken out of the country but remains here and is used to fuel further business. Greed is the real enemy, greedy un nationalistic people who want to have massive amounts of cash and have no interest in the country as a whole are not good for the economy. We saw it in ireland too and now look at the state of the economy.

I think the recession came at a very good time for Poland and people did not get too wealthy or comfortable with debt, people know how to live on a budget and thats why this country is not feeling devasted now. In ireland the last time I was home i went to the local jabka - or centra as its called, I saw a school kid buying a breakfast sandwich, a late - another sandwich and can of coke for his school lunch and I saw him hand 12euro over the counter, if he did this 5 days a week thats 60euro thats 240euro a month thats 1008PLN @4.2pln to euro a month - as well anyone who lives in Poland knows many people can live, feed a family on 1000pln per month - this was a schoolkid 16years - its crazyness like this that shows the recession came at a good time or Poland. Irish English and germans e.t.c. all the richer nations of europe have to change their lifestyle so drastically now, its devastating for them. Polish people know how to be happy while on a budget. Polish people also know how to work hard. Many of the people who have been living overseas will come home and setup businesses, thats vital and its key that the ideas of the new businesses are Polish owned and that partnerships are created and the experience of foreigners used to create and run new polish business but its really important that the profits stay in Poland.

Anyways this has become a bit of a rant - but in all I think Polands future is bright and why - because of the strength, courage and intelligence of the people. Its important to stay positive and not to get caught up in too much rubbish, but its all here, just important to try and get it done.

MKD

Welcome to the forum, that is a cracking post i observe you have some time on your hands with expecting your first child soon. My Polish wife has recently given birth in Poland, best of luck with that.


Yes i remember that well, it was actually one of my main sales pitches when the Irish economy was booming. Dont hear to much about that in the current economic climate.


Thats a pearl of wisdom. Quite difficult to follow in reality.

I think that globally recession is not over. In my opinion it would be W not V recession, so buckle up boys and girls :-) As for Poland it means another currency roundabout, so stay away from FX credits... We hold on first hit, hard to say if we are capable of withstand second wave.

But what is promising is road building program and Euro2012 preparations. Thanks to that currently Poland is one of the biggest building sites in Europe. Luckily much of funds is already protected for that, part of it from EU... We don't have to like USA, make big stimulus and search for showel ready projects, it is already in place. What is better it is not entirely from our own pocket. I know, I know "highway in Poland" seems to be a joke... but check this:

skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=41515970&postcount=3108
skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=41459236&postcount=3100
skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=441854&page=158
skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=693008&page=30

This map:
skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=41504956&postcount=3105

would be much thicker in next two years with "under construction" lines.

Thanks for the welcome - I am trying to adjust to my new role as mum to be and winding my mind down is one of the really difficult things to do - but it must be done, I do enjoy reading about whats going on in the world at the moment and hearing what other people in business are going through so I am enjoying the site.

However - i don't like negativity - i realise that people can be frustrated and that things are hard but I am a great believer in taking responsibility for ones own life - 'life is not fair' nobodies perfect, the plus in that is that 'nobodies' perfect so that is pretty fair... haha

what I am trying to say is its important to always be deadly honest and not to get down about things when the going gets tough... i have'nt always been this way and have done the angry the worlds against me stuff but its pointless and the sunrises always on a new day, one of lifes certaintys so best to always try and be positive. I also have a fighting spirit and will not give in, so I don't let things get me down for very long. So I hate to see people moaning and being negative for the sake of it, negatives are vital but when they become an approach or a way of life, its not good and just doesn't work - nothing is ever that black and white -

anyways I am ranting again.

thanks for the welcome is what I am trying to say.

mkd

Today's economy is mostly paper.It is based on hopes and assumptions.The real stuff produced is crap made in China.So everyone becomes chinized since valuable oil and resources turn into cheap products with low value.

The cheap creates a bluff which blows out and so we have the crisis.Crisis has hit Poland hard since many Poles inside Poland and abroad have lost their jobs.I know many cases and some polish girls turn to prositution and sponsoring.

Basically you cannot hit the paper economy because it is an expression of freedom.Only Germans can manage that.(with cooperation from Russians).

Thats not exactly true, i would say todays economy is mostly virtual - do you have all your money in your home? i think the answer most people would give to that question is no its in the bank and they view it virtually on a computer.

If we all went to the bank today and tried to withdraw all our money, could the banks give it to us? the answer is obviously no!

This is a banking crisis - the worlds dependence on Oil is another huge factor I agree and its making aspects of modern life way more expensive - i.e travel - the car industry is falling apart but I am very sure that somebody has a solution which they will hold the world to ransom with, or may even be holding the world to ransom with now.

As for the Poles loosing their jobs - in many cases the recession has been used as an excuse to get rid of dead wood, every company can cut costs, in good times people don't bother, now people are doing that - I did it in my own office, we hadn't reviewed wages, banking costs, phones e.t.c. when we looked into we brought the operating costs of the company down by a shocking 43%. Its a great time to get good deals and to bargain with people for better deals.

In the past alot of companies always produced way more than they needed, now with recession they don't want to sit on excess stock so they have cut bank, many banks have increased the margins on overdrafts and banking facilities so companies don't use them.

re china - well we are such a consumer society - Poland not so much as the richer countries in europe - just look in your wardrobe - how many pairs of shoes do you have - way more than you can ever wear- in the past people did not have so many and so much of everything, you bought something and it lasted. One of the big things about the 'credit generation' is you work all week and then you spend all weekend in the mall buying **** you don't need - look at TV the fashion industry how much advertising is done to make you think that you need all this consumer stuff, being a women its even worse - there is some rubbish beauty product to do everything for a woman - how much of it is actually needed. Very little.

In Poland people still grow vegtables and your food is very healthy and natural with people cooking at home from scratch - go to other richer world countries and look at their diets, packaged food full of additives. Alot of families in smaller towns still grow potatoes e.t.c so many poles make Jars every year, to be stored through winter.

These are all reasons why Poland is not feeling the world credit recession, because they have a more healthy and normal lifestyle.

As for the prostitution point - well thats just a bit out there to be honest - no one is hungry in Poland so I hardly think that career choice is based on survival, more on choice.

MKD

Wait till the little one is born, i cant believe the medical costs, doctors, specialists, perscriptions, my baby is only three months old and we have cupboards full of crap. In Poland every little sneeze and snivvle is considered a problem, the amount of times weve been to the Doctors is unbelievable, in England the baby recieves all her nutrients from the mothers milk for months.

English Doctors advise against virtually any drugs or medicione for new borns unless absolutely neccesary, here im walking out of the medical cetre with a pack of perscriptions which cost an absolute fortune.

Its a scam i tell ya, Poles always claim having a baby in Poland is expensive i assumed they were referring to the neccesities, not true it is expensive and most of it useless.

Change your doctor -

That is true in some extent for USA, GB, and all other smaller finacial centers. Countries such as Poland don't have so strong and influenatial financial sector. Which is actually good thing in debt driven crisis.

We have several times.

The thing with doctors is, if you go to them they never let you leave their office without giving you a perscription, I have argued with my doctor all through the pregnancy and he actually told me that people don't think they are doing their job properly unless they get a perscription. Once he knew I was not that kind of person we had a more honest and natural approach.

If its your first child its hard not to be nervous, so running to the doctor is inevitable because if anything happened to your child you would never forgive yourself.

if you think back to our parents generation, people drank and smoked during pregnancy did'nt have scans or take vitamins and all the other stuff we are taking now and they all turned out pretty fairly healthy.

Its hard to know what to do.

I am finding the pregnancy experience much cheaper than in Ireland, dramatically.

mkd

Everywhere it's cheaper than in Ireland :)

Poland may have a high average IQ and a young, perhaps intelligent workforce, but there are two factors due to which Poland will never be a big player like the UK, Germany, France and to some extent the Netherlands, and that is: a) geographical location and b) the language.

Poland may be a Central European country, but it's not quite in the centre of where things are happening. It's hard to reach over sea and to some extent over land as well. So, that will be a factor of importance. Most important however, is the language. One of the keys of the success of Ireland for a decade lay in the fact that they spoke English, a relative easy language to learn and quite international. Polish, on the other hand, is a nightmare to learn and is outside of Poland hardly anywhere else spoken.

So, unless Poland makes serious work of their English education (and maybe can skip places on the map with Germany:) ) I don't think Poland will be a huge player in the foreseeable future.

M-G (busy, busy, busy)

Theres quite a few more: customer service, infrastructure, the con mentality, back stabbing, dishonesty, racism.

I used to believe Poland would become a major player in Europe however after living here for over 3 years, i dont think so. Not for a long, long time.

Oh, Netherlands is entirely in Poland range (in Total GDP) but in next 10 to 20 years...
UK, Germany, France - of course not, simple demographics factor.


Ha... it all depends on Russia, Ukraine and Belarus... True, in current crisis it seems that Poland geographical location sucks, because Ukrainian and Russian GDP fallen from the cliff.

But before crisis Polish foreign trade with those countries was rising in double digit pace.
If those countries rebound then:
a) Poland geographical location will be great advantage
b) Polish language too (because it is really easy to learn basic Russian if you know Polish :-) )

According to several lists, the Netherlands had in 2008 a GDP between 860.000 and 910.000 and Poland a GDP between 500.000 and 550.000. Although these figures may not mean much, take into consideration that Poland is nearly 3 or 4 times as big as the Netherlands, yet the GDP is nearly twice as much. So I would not say that the Netherlands are in Poland's range.


Even without a crisis the location kinda sucks, but that is not because of the Ukraine or Belarus; more because of the fact that their harbours are very well hidden deep into the Baltic sea. Too far away and not on any major trading route, except to Saint Petersburg. This always has handicapped Poland's position.


Hm, indeed back stabbing and dishonesty are traits indeed typical, not only in the Motherland. And racism (as well as their attitude to homosexuals) is something that HAS TO BE addressed and it has to be addressed soon as it will hamper all efforts to become equal to other nations. Little example: the company I work for had a advertisement in magazines and the internet for one of their products. In the original ad there was a gentleman with a dark skin to be seen. ONLY FOR THE POLISH MARKET, they changed the coloured gentleman for a white one because the Poles would not accept a coloured person and therefore would not buy the product. Sad, isn't it? It's the 21st century, here is a country that wants to be part of the modern world and yet has such views. They still need a lot to learn. How long will it take before the West will stop tolerating retarded attitudes like this and will say: "Poland, you have joined our EU to profit money-wise from us, now you will have to change your attitude towards these things as well?" When will that happen?

M-G (likes German girls too)