The Polish Economy and its future

Everything you say is true and I cannot disagree with you, however its the same in any emerging market and compared to Russia or the Ukraine Slovakia and Czech republic - I would have Poland anyday -

Communism was not so long ago. There is still this contact look after your friends mentality, i have come across so many people who create elaborate devious schemes that demand so much of their time to think up. They are always caught out and end up looking stupid. My moto is 'if a deal looks too good to be true - then thats probably because it is too good to be true' The honest straight forward approach may mean you take longer to make money but you can sleep at night.

Its easier to do business in Germany, Holland and UK because reputation is everything, people here do not realise the importance of reputation and professionalism hence they try to rip off foreigners up to now there were enough stupid people who did not do the groundwork to allow them to get away with it. Not anymore.

People need to use the legal system more and see court cases to the end - when enough people get sued or go to jail for downright illegal behaviour then people will be more honest they will have to be and thats why the German - english - dutch systems work - there is accountability.

My final point is that Poland needs to create an efficient market in Poland before it can focus on the rest of europe - if poland can become a reliable accountable place to do business it will be stronger than germany, why, because its cheaper - do we love the chinese, no they are cheaper, its all about cost effectivness and germany holland e.t.c are no longer cost effective. Poland bottom line is. The poles need to be open to learning about professionalism and accountability and to forge real business alliances rather than trying to out wit the foreigners and take their money, its downright stupid, why join europe if you want to be an island, does poland think its can take all the positives without having to actually give something, some say that this attitude comes from an inferiority complex, well get over that straight away, id rather deal with an honest pole than a self rightious german anyday, but if i can't find professionalism honesty and accountability and keep meeting greedy devious schemers then I am out of here and who would blame me eh.

mkd

True, I've check, it will take 28 years...
On average Polish GDP in last ten years grew 4%, Dutch 2%. But if the difference will be 3% not 2%, then it will take less than 20 years.


That is why Netherlands is in Poland's range... On per capita basis I don't see it too in this century...


Except war time, I have to disagree. Especially when I take into consideration geopolitical shift in global markets from USA-EU, to China-USA, China-EU, well South Asia - rest of the world. Poland can gain from that change. Atlantic Ocean is becoming less and less important.

So you're basically saying that Poles should remain on the low level of wages where they are now? Because when Poland gets up at its feet and starts to be some sort of reliabla partner, prices will go up, ppl will want to earn more and Poland will de facto be Germany's equal. I think the future lies in Asia for the time being. Not anywhere in Europe or North America, for that matter.

M-G (will not move to Asia, btw)

Once we are out of this financial mess, Poland can sure develop at high growth rates, this because of the relatively cheap labour costs. Which are spread throughout central-eastern Europe, the thing is once the economy improves, salaries go up (a inevitable consequence) then it is bye-bye cheap labour.

Much more has to be done in order to have a robust, stable economy. Look at Italy, struggling still, their main issue is the lack of multinationals, to provide with steady cash inflow. The luxurious market their small companies focus on, is very treachierous and unpredictable. there you go, crisis.

It's gonna take a while for Poland to develope to the levels of UK,Germany,France,Holland, but it is in its way, the resources it has, the workforce it has, the strategic postion it has, just a matter of better planing and strong-vision enterprising.

No my point is not that, look at TPSA who owns it - a french company - all the profits leave the country - focus on home and get that right, create alliances and partnerships controlled by Polish businessmen and keep profits at home.

There is huge nationalism in Germany, holland and england - business people who remain residents of these countries and have no problem paying tax to the exchequers of these countries. In poland the fact that TPSA a french company could even buy a network like this in the first place is completely crazy to me, massive profit walking out of Poland day in day out and how many other businesses are like this.

Polish business should be Polish part owned, but most Poles are so greedy, they want millions, money they can't even spend. Some of the richest people I know live the most normal lives, they invest in credability and have ideals and nationalism. They want a future for their kids.

The potential to create some great businesses is here at the moment and the low wages are a key factor, it allows poland to export to the rest of europe and really compete with more established products produced in germany e.t.c but the profits to create any real future for poland need to stay in Poland. Ireland is an example here, mutinationals come in setup factories, employ people, people have money and can buy houses, there are not enough houses so developers met the demand, but they are greedy and they use the supply and demand problem to put up the prices- what do the irish government do - instead of regulating the area and keeping residential prices capped they earn huge capital gains tax income and are so happy to get this money that they do not get involved and allow greedy developers to profit on the sale of peoples homes. Then america enters a huge recession - at this point europe has made ireland bring in minimum wage, if they don't agree they will bring them to court and deny them the right to offer such low tax incentives to multinationals. Once the minimum wage comes in the multinationals have to pay more, so they want out. Without employment people cannot pay mortgages. What a lovely mess the Irish government have created.

Own the businesses is the way to sort this out and create a stable self sufficient market at home and then like china produce everything for cheaper than everyone else and become a really rich counrty.

hahaha what a rant, I have just solved the problems of the polish nation, now I think I will have some lunch....

i don't think its that simple - wish it was, i do believe the key is to be a self sufficient nation - to strike oil might be a nice bonus as well haha!!

mkd

For the time being, being the critical part of that statement.

I remember 15 years ago, when automotive production started moving to Mexico. Canada had enjoyed the benefits of having a lower cost base compared to the US, along with a trade agreement specifically related to Auto parts and production. When Mexico joined NAFTA, there was a giant sucking sound as all the factories picked up and moved south (both from Canada and the US). Only those with a specialty product or process, or niche market were able to survive, and there was an incredible pressure on pricing of products. Eventually, Mexican costs rose (as a result of improved standards - health and safety, environmental, labour laws etc) and narrowed the advantage of the Mexican product. Not satisfied with the level of profits being garnered from Mexican factories, that is when expanded international sourcing started to emerge. Products from around the world started showing up - Taiwan, China, etc. The rest is history. Factories where decent paying jobs once existed were shuttered, the people thrown out, and forced to accept less than they were making before at service industry jobs "welcome to McDonalds, would you like fries with that?". Now they can't afford to buy the cars that they once produced. A country needs to have well paying jobs in order to grow their economy. Can people who live on a McDonalds wage really afford the SUV, the big screen TV and the monster home?

I am all for capitalism, it has certainly been beneficial to the masses over the last 90 years or so. But globalisation has it's cons, that need to be addressed.

Well do we really need these things? consumerism is destroying our world. Why not just be happy with a medium-sized TV set, A car which produces less emisions, and a house which fits our needs?

Why are northamericans so obssesed with size (Big, bigger, biggest even bigger than biggest!)

Well I have lived happily without all of these things for years - it is called living within your means. You pick your battles.


I can't say I will give you the ultimate answer on this, but:

North America is a large place, quite spread out, with a "small" population. Development of cities has tended to adopt the mentality of "spread out, there's lots of space here". Driving a car has been a necessity because of the spread out nature of our cities. Why drive in an econobox car when gas is (was) cheap? Americans typically get to write off their mortgage interest, so it is in their interest to carry a large mortgage, and spend the difference - you guessed it, on larger cars, homes and tv's.

Spending money they haven't got, which results in... oh, the current economic meltdown, what a surprise! ;)


Maybe it hides their inadequacies in other areas, hehe ;)

All the Lamborghini drivers round here are Asian, so, as they say in the US, "go figure". lol

I drive a small 1.3 hatchback. :D :D :D

Also the lack of proper public transport and concientization.


And where it all lead their economy to.

Are you dense? He just explained to you why public transport has not been developed as much. It's a huge continent. Gas was cheap and car production was a boon to the economy. Besides who wants to get boxed in like cattle on a smelly European street car or bus?

I watched an interesting program (60 Minutes) and they were talking about these "instruments" called Credit Default Swaps. Basically an idea where you can buy "insurance" against the price of a certain asset going down in value. It basically is a side bet on the economy. When values went down, companies like Bear Stearns would have to pay out. So for a few pennies on the dollar, you could get rich betting on the failures of others, and massive corporations had to pay. Not fair to the shareholders in that company, or the economy as a whole. Completely unregulated activity. It was illegal between 1907 and 2000. Apparently it was made legal again in 2000. The reason it became illegal in 1907? It caused a crash in the stock markets.


There is a stronger focus on public transportation in North American cities these days, but nobody likes to foot the bill for large infrastructure spending....

In many European cities, it's a better option than driving. Driving costs me £250 a month. So what if housing round here is cheaper than where I used to live; adding the cost of travel (because a car is essential round here) actually makes my cost of living higher, with few of the benefits of the area I lived in a year ago. OK, so I can play my music as loud as I like, the aircon is always on, and I don't have to take notice of signs which say "please don't eat smelly food" (yes, really) any more, but it has a price - and I'm not sure that price is worth it!

ekhm... I fail to see what USA public transport has to do with future of Polish economy ;-)

Are you a bit R-tard? i mean its a huge continent, but do you use your car to drive from toronto to dallas? No you don't! The distances from work and to suburbia could be well covered if a proper public transport system was implemented in time.

But you just made a point which is very common in American population :"who wants to get boxed in like cattle on a smelly car or bus"

That is individualism, egocentrism and irresponsability at its best. You live by appereances, we dont! our gubernments care to at least take steps towards battling global contamination, and so do we!

Better go into a bus then have half of our countries under water in 50 years. and what then? where are you gonna ride your SUV? Up your arse? hope is big enough.

My bus pass costs me £55 ;0)


I had a head ache the other night when I got off the bus because the person next to me for half of my journey smelt so bad! He wasn't European!

This is also my opinion why Americans promoted cars by neglecting public transport.It has to do with the economy.
If you drive a car you can
1.Stop and shop from shops spreading across highways
2.Stop and get to motels etc
3.Stop and buy benzine

If you are in a bus most of these economic activities are hindered because you cannot stop and ride the bus again.It makes no sense.If you are in the bus or train,you also do not notice so much the ads outside.And all important places tend to be concentrated in central stations which makes land there extremely expensive while in US they can be more spread out and thus more affordable.

These were my impressions when I was in Houston for one week in June.There the public transport is really minimal but the cars cost about 12-14$ per day to rent,a price unthinkable for Europe.

Also in Europe one of the reasons for so high taxes on benzine and toll expenses remaining for cars sales is the conscious effort to reduce the car sales in order to improve environment.I mean the benzine consume per person is much lower if the person moves by bus than when he drives a car for the same distance.So it is aimed to keep oil consume and pollution to minimum.

It is also noticeable how euro countries manage to make bicycle more attractive to taking the bus again for environmental reasons.They do special arrangements for that concerning bus ticket price,giving great accordingly part of the road and pavement to bicycle traffic etc.

On the contrary moving with bicycle can no way be considered part of the american dream.

Yes it is, thanks for the compliment. You keep on doing the same thing, everyday, as everyone else in Europe. You are robotic. European communal living at its best. And you can shove that global warming clap trap.. we have emission standards unlike S. America and China. Where's your condemnation of them? Your lucky if your shoes don't give away walking around Shang Hai.


Lol, no but the bus was European. Been on the Stassenbahn in Germany enough in the summer. Jesus, new invention people: it's called deodorant. And, most of them weren't German either. I mean, a pig would have walking in figure 8's after those noxious rides.


4. Buy pornography.

Probably frowned upon on a European bus. Possible exception Czech Republic.

Didnt you mean:

5.pick up a prostitute? or will you have top wait for the US economy to recover a bit?

Yes,with car you are far more mobile.Freedom,choices and lots of people getting work due to car existence.

Depends on the hooker. But sure, the US economy is in the toilet and will be for some time. Europe is recovering faster, so hang you hat on that I guess.

scrappleton, southern, Wroclaw Boy, mvefa, I think you all missing the point:
USA: 31,83 person/km²
EU: 115,00 person/km²
cities in USA: mostly newest and wider
cities in Europe: old, beauty but dense with narrow streets

Many cities in Europe without public transport would simple clog up. In European dense cities bicycle is the fastest means of transport in 4 km range (except people living next to metro station...). It is not about lifestyle. Actually this lifestyle is derivative of necessity. With a main star Holland: 397,6 person/km²

Well yeah, the math aspect here illustrates that nicely.

because people get bored with what they already have (TV, car, wife, etc), its human nature.

Do you have Trabant in N.Korea?

Scrappleton: And you can shove that global warming clap trap.

Nicely said! im glad someone in the USA is smart enough to think this way!

Yes - this is true, but only due to Poland's admittance to the EU. The Netherlands were already in there, as you may or may not know. In fact, the admittance of such a big number of new memberstates has only meant well for exactly those new memberstates; the existing states, except Spain, Portugal and Ireland, mainly suffered a slight drawback from the admittance. But in due time all will be drawn to a more equal level and that is exactly what the EU is all about, or should be about: equality with no major peaks or lows.

M-G (hungry)

Not really, the average for Poland for last 17 years is about 4,5%. For Dutch 2,1-2,4%.
So the difference remains. But of course EU entrance was big kick up in recent years after 2001/2002 slowdown. I simply point out that if pattern from last 17 years remains in next decades, then Poland will reach the Netherlands in 28 years in terms of total nominal GDP, thats all.

Of course it is pure speculation. If you want to count "EU entrance effect", then different estimates are that it gave Poland 1-3% addtional growth. Last five years is to little for statistics but:

Poland: 1992-2003 -> average 4,11%
Poland: 2004-2008 -> average 5,24% growth
It seems to me that it isn't illogic to assume that difference between Polish and Dutch growth/decline will widen this additional 1%. Which means that with 3% difference in next 20 years in terms of total GDP Poland will draw level with Netherlands. But in recesion time we came back to 2% difference:

Poland 2009 2Q : 1,1%
Holland 2009 2Q: -0,9%


Well, this only support my thesis about reaching Holland total GDP value by Poland :-) Of course, there is many "if". Nonetheless patern do exist.

Last but not least:
2008, GDP in nominal terms by IMF
Poland: 525,735
Holland: 868,940

2008, GDP in purchasing power parity terms by IMF
Poland: 666,052
Holland: 675,375

hm :-) it looks like the Netherlands are a little overestimated in nominal terms...

Indeed, growth rates are high when a country starts to develop, it usually slows down halfway...its the circle of life.

I think North Korean economy is the only one not hit by the crisis.