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Polish economy, the US Dollar, the PLN and the Polish real estate bubble.


michaelmansun 11 | 135  
22 Oct 2008 /  #1
I am happy to see that our troubles in the United States are now reaching across the big water. I see that the the PLN is now crashing. I see that the European Central Bank is planning to cut interest rates. I see that housing prices in Poland are now falling. I see that banks in Poland are soon to be in serious trouble. I see that Poland and the Europe didnt isolate themselves from the US economic problems. I see that soon I will be coming with my dollars that Ive squirrled away and I will be a big shot while you guys reopen the milk bars to feed the masses.

I like Poland and Poles. But you guys just got too big for your own good once you became a member of YURP!!
ukpolska  
22 Oct 2008 /  #2
wow, you are a hurt and sad sicko aren't you... hate to disappoint you but it will not be as bad in Poland as it will for example the UK, Germany or the glorious USA lol

Just a thought, I very much doubt that after the clobbering that you will get in the US that you will be able to afford toilet roll to wipe your ass...let alone travel anywhere ;0)
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448  
22 Oct 2008 /  #3
Independent foregn and Polish analysts are now lowering predicitons for Poland's GDP growth from the government's 4.8% to 3,7-4%, but that still isn't bad considering Germany is expecting almost zero growth.

Polish banks did not offer some of the "modern" (ie risky) financial instruments hence the mortgage crunch is not really a problem. Poles' conservativism, lambasted by some as being bad, in this case was a blessing. About 10% of home purchases in Poland involve mortgages as against 40-50% in ther EU and up to 70% in the states.
SeanBM 35 | 5,808  
22 Oct 2008 /  #4
michaelmansun

I recommend holding your breath, ha ha ha ;)

ukpolska

Some people will write anything for a thread.

Polonius3

I agree and confirm.
ParisJazz - | 172  
22 Oct 2008 /  #5
According to today's news, EUR and GBP are further going down, on recession fears and imminent rate cuts.

PJ
djf 18 | 166  
22 Oct 2008 /  #6
Just checked xe.com and the GBP is up against the PLN. Nearly at 4.7 zl to the pound, was closer to 4.1 a month ago.
ParisJazz - | 172  
22 Oct 2008 /  #7
A month is a long time in currency trading :)

Euro, Pound Tumble on Bets European Central Banks to Cut Rates

PJ
gtd 3 | 639  
22 Oct 2008 /  #8
I doubt it will get up to where it was years ago and stay but I am enjoying this for now:

1 U.S. dollar = 2.88670269 Polish zloty Woohoooooo!!
Wroclaw Boy  
22 Oct 2008 /  #9
Just checked xe.com and the GBP is up against the PLN. Nearly at 4.7 zl to the pound, was closer to 4.1 a month ago.

Damn i should have waited.
gtd 3 | 639  
22 Oct 2008 /  #10
Yeah the hard part is seeing where it will top out or if it will go down again and when to withdraw money, buy things etc.

I thought when it got to 2.6 and hovered there for a while it was over. Now I think it might break 3 by Christmas.

Since prices in PL have gone up considerably it would need to get to about 4 again before it would match what it was when I came...I don't see it going that high but I could be surprised as I couldn't have imagined it getting down to 2 either and it did.
Wroclaw Boy  
22 Oct 2008 /  #11
I was actually going to change up some Euros today but i think i'll wait a few more days

The exchange rate is always my enemy
gtd 3 | 639  
22 Oct 2008 /  #12
I know a few Polish bankers that are not happy. Their plan is sinking (though they already made a killing on insider info).

Maybe I should start looking for a cheaper flat if there is actually so much trouble with keeping housing full as people say. But I know of several flats sitting empty for a lonnnngg time because the owner had them priced too high and wouldn't budge...I do not understand the business mentality here. They would rather not make anything than make 'less' profit but still overall make profit.

But then knowing my luck the bottom will fall out and the owner would triple the price on me!
Wroclaw Boy  
22 Oct 2008 /  #13
Why has the Zloty weakened all of a sudden? Anything on Polish news? I dont watch it personally.

Its down to 3.76 to the Euro right now, it was 3.69 this morning, i know they fluctuate contsantly but the pattern is definently there.
gtd 3 | 639  
22 Oct 2008 /  #14
Well my opinion is certain to draw the ire of Poles as they can't believe such things happen and that such unethical nonsense is possible here....but I am a believer, and have been told this by financial people here in Poland, that Poland was slowly inflating the Zl and raising prices here to try and get things closer to the Euro on a per unit value so that when the switchover occurred it would be less painful than is has been for others. A lot can be done my manipulating reported numbers etc regardless of what people will admit.

They also mentioned that when things started going nuts worldwide it wasn't so easy to cover what they were doing and they got caught overvaluing the Zl and thus 'part' of the drop....the rest is the unsure nature of the markets as the other EU currencies are dropping too just not equally.

Queue the patriots to tell me I am a hater :)
z_darius 14 | 3,968  
22 Oct 2008 /  #15
Well to top it off the normal prices here are ridiculously high for most things. Jeans etc cost 3-4x as much as the USA. That applies to most consumer products. I really don't know how most Poles by the stuff they buy especially housing on the salaries they make.

What does it have to do with Poles?
Have you tried to buy a decent pair of Jeans in Paris?
My sister and her hubby will fly to NYC for a weekend to buy clothing at no more than 25% of what they have to pay in France.

I refuse to pay so much for stuff and just stock up when in the states. A recent example. The exact same laptop at shops here....5000pln...in the US it was 2000pln.

I buy a lot of computer equipment on a regular basis. The prices of some laptops (same make and model), and other computer goodies will vary by as much as 100% WITHIN the US. In Canada, when buying a car (manufactured in Canada) we had to pay 30 to 50% more than Americans were charged for the exact same car manufactured in Canada. That on top of the fact that the Canadian Dollar was on parity with USD, and at times even higher.

Look at book prices. Canadian libraries rebelled in the last few months. Again, with Canadian Dollar being on parity with USD librarians saw no reason for books being priced at around 40% more in Canada than in the US.

All those strange pricing discrepancies are given various reasons by various American and Canadian economists. The common theme among them is this simple principle: you charge whatever the market will bear.

Welcome to free market economy!

We do like market economy, don't we?

The exact same laptop at shops here....5000pln...in the US it was 2000pln. I can see if something is specifically American and imported...but most stuff this isn't the case.

You're not trying to suggest that any laptops to speak of are manufactured in the US, are you?
gtd 3 | 639  
22 Oct 2008 /  #16
Clearly not. I was saying computers for example are primarily asian which means importation for both the USA and Poland. Yet in Poland the same device is 2 times or more higher in cost. I know people pay this and I don't understand either HOW they pay so much for goods,housing etc when the salaries are lower. It doesn't work out on paper.
dat 2 | 62  
22 Oct 2008 /  #17
1 U.S. dollar = 2.88670269 Polish zloty Woohoooooo!!

I hope it keeps going!! ;)
OP michaelmansun 11 | 135  
24 Oct 2008 /  #18
Thank you. The PLN is now 3.10 today against the dollar. It fell back to 3.02 but it will only get worse as oil falls. Thank God. I am pleased.
Polanglik 11 | 303  
24 Oct 2008 /  #19
Why has the Zloty weakened all of a sudden? Anything on Polish news? I dont watch it personally

According to the Warsaw Voice : warsawvoice.pl/newsX.php/7118/876856072

I think you have to register to read the full articles.

Hungarian crisis sends the zloty into a tailspin
Warsaw, Poland October 23, 2008

Polish equities and the Polish currency were hammered by foreign investors on Wednesday as part of the ongoing global panic. Sharp drops on the WSE were in line with the steep declines on virtually all global bourses.

The blue-chip WIG-20 index fell 7.60% to close at 1,683.66 points. The broad market WIG was down 6.24% to 27,282.25 points. Turnover was fairly low at PLN 1.14 bln.

The zloty fell sharply as institutional investors dumped Central European currencies. Hungary was forced to hike interest rates sharply to defend the forint.
PLN/EUR: 3.714
PLN/USD: 2.881

As I live in UK, I am keeping an eye on £:zł exchange rate and yesterday it reached 5 złoty to £1 :o)
ParisJazz - | 172  
24 Oct 2008 /  #20
The zloty, along other emerging market currencies, is being dumped in favour of major currencies such as the euro and the us dollar. Unless Poland joins the euro, the zloty will always be subject to such erratic fluctuations in times of trouble.

If the current crisis deepens, and predictions are that it will, the zloty (forint, ruble, lira, and anything that is not EUR, USD, Swiss Francs or JPY) will tumble even further.

That's one major advantage of being part of the euro: entrepreneurs can focus on the business of producing and making profit within a major trading block without having to worry about future exchange rate fluctuations. Also, investors will not have to "Pull out" (i.e. selling the local currency) in times of trouble since their investment will be EUR denominated.

Had the Italian lira and the Greek drachma been out of the EUR zone at the moment, they would have tumbled as well.

Now why would anyone be against Poland joining the EUR is beyond me..

PJ
katerina - | 3  
24 Oct 2008 /  #21
Woo.. You must be realy angry!
Sorry where you want it or not Poland is a member of EU and it is obvious that Poland folowing the same patern as everyone else In Europe, economic growth slows down unemployment rises, house prices go down. But it is not going to last forever and I have to reasure you we like everyone else will find our way out!
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163  
24 Oct 2008 /  #22
A bit stronger EUR and USD are not bad at all, unlike stronger CHF. Generally fluctuating currency exchange rates are not a big problem and people in big business know how to deal with that, but the real estate mess is really danger. Access to mortgages is much more restrictive now, which of course means lower demand and that means lower prices... in a country where the same banks used to give credits with loan to value rate = 1 (so no own money at all) and in few cases even 1.1... The banking idiots are going to commit suicide and unfortunately we will fall down together with them.
Kowalski 7 | 621  
24 Oct 2008 /  #23
forein investors sell stocks on polish GPW and buy USD and EURO - that is all.
Krakowianka 1 | 243  
24 Oct 2008 /  #24
Thank you. The PLN is now 3.10 today against the dollar. It fell back to 3.02 but it will only get worse as oil falls. Thank God. I am pleased.

What is with you, you say you like Poland & Poles, but really I think you are jealous of their success, and now the devaluation of the PLN is getting you all high. Calm down.
gtd 3 | 639  
24 Oct 2008 /  #25
Yeah because for some of us living in Poland with US money in the bank it helps us to have a higher dollar...it isn't some hatred for Poland or a wish for Poles to have less money...it just benefits us here. And except for holidays the average Poles that lives and shops in Poland wont know the difference.

I didn't see any Poles feeling bad for me when it went from 4 to nearly 2 but now you want to complain? I hope the dollar keeps going up as it makes my life easier but that doesn't mean I hate Poland.

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