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What needs to happen in the world so that Poland and Russia form alliance? [297]
M-G i can't shake the feeling that you were and still are against admitting eastern Europe to EU.
Actually I was neutral about it, the way I am neutral towards the admitting of Turkey. I had some reservations towards it, because look what we have: Poland holds a grudge against Germany and Russia; Slovakia and Hungary aren't the best of friends, which came to light with that new language law of the Slovaks, Bulgaria doesn't like the Russians and the Greek, The Greek don't like anybody in the area, nobody likes the Romanians and Slovenia has still some issues, be it minor, with Austria concerning claims of Austrian territory, dating back to Austria-Hungary. In my opinion, these scores should be settled in a definitive way so that they cannot surface at some later point in time when they are already member of the EU and these things are suddenly an internal EU issue. But I also believe that everybody will keep his/her good sense and will not let these (mainly historical) issues dominate their acting anymore and look forward to the future instead of looking backward. That's why I was neutral towards the event.
Serbia is naturally alone at this point in history, no one has a particular interest in supporting or working against her, because they're such a sidetrack state though they were used as a muscle show against Russia, thats the only reason they lost Kosovo.
This is the core of her problem: see, in the 19th century nobody in Western politics took the Balkans seriously. To them it was just some back area, not good for anything. When Serbia liberated herself from the Ottomans, it kinda expected to be welcomed with open arms by the West. When this did not happen, they got bitter and felt left behind, hence this pan-slavic idea of uniting all Southern Slavs in one superstate, Yugoslavia.
Taken into account that I personally believe that a so-called brotherhood of Slavs does not exist and never has existed, you have the following situation: there is Serbia, the first state fully independent from Turkey. Than you have Greece, which is basically a Balkans country too, although the Greek are not a Slavic ppl. Serbia wants Macedonia as there are Slavs there. Greece also wants Macedonia, because it feels it is part of Greece. Then you have Bulgaria. Bulgaria, whos freedom was the prize of the Russo-Turkish war of 1877-1878 got her freedom and much to Russia's dismay, she turned out to be an avid anti-Russian (one of the reasons by the way why Bulgaria has always joined Germany in both World Wars), so if Russia thought -and she did think that- to have a supporter in Bulgaria, she was deadly wrong. Anyway, Bulgaria wanted Thrace and Macedonia too. So the brotherhood of Slav ppl was a myth, at least in that part of Europe as all participants had different agendas and the same goal, Macedonia, which was still in Turkish hands at the time. So what happens? Serbia doesn't like the Bulgarians as they have set their sights on Macedonia too. Serbia knows that Bulgaria doesn't like the Russians, yet Russians are Slavs too. And Russia was the only one that took Serbia partly serious. They didn't really, but Serbia was handy because of the pan-slavic idea and since Bulgaria didn't like them, who came more naturally into play as ally in the area than Serbia? So it happened. I am leaving out of this scope the entire network of spies, killings of kings, etc. Would become too complex :) All this could have been prevented if the West had taken a clear stand. But they didn't care. Serbia on her part knew very well that the Russians were just using her. They knew that Bulgaria was the Russian's first choice. So although she had somewhat of an ally, she still felt all alone, paranoid of all the enemies around her.
The (at that time) empty promise of Russia to help her, gave Serbia enough boldness to stir as much as she could in order to fulfill her dream of Yugoslavia and eventually, not to be alone anymore. But first there was this issue of Macedonia. Some lame agreement was made with the Greek and Bulgarians about Macedonia and in 1912 the three of them attacked Turkey. Turkey was no match and surrendered after half a year. And now comes the main point of this long story: it became evident that a dream of Slavic brotherhood would always be a dream and never reality, because all three victors wanted a part of Macedonia according to her own terms. Bulgaria was the most greedy in this. In may 1913 she was attacked by a combined force of Serbia, Greece, Romania and strangely enough Turkey as well. She surrendered 3 months later. Macedonia became Serbian, Thrace became Greek, Turkey got a little part of Bulgaria and Romania got a few of her claims granted. Now Serbia had a bigger fish to fry: Austria-Hungary. When the First World War broke out, Serbia did not have any ally in the area. So far for Slavic brotherhood.
The point is that although Serbia sees herself as champion of Slav-hood and the great uniting force of the South-Slavs in the shape of Yugoslavia, so when this fell apart in 1991, she was left alone again and old paranoya came up. This is why she was so cruel and rude in her reactions. There is more to this story, but I think I tipped the main points as to where Serbia always feels alone and feels that she cannot trust anyone.
Should Serbia adhere to EU guidelines and get rid of the "Rogue-State" image that she has, I think the whole threat of an explosive atmosphere in the Balkans will evaporate. Serbia will get the feeling that she is part of something, that they take her seriously and that will make her feel at ease, whereas the lack of this feeling cause many of the trouble she caused throughout history.
Is it best for Europe to admit Serbia?
If you get a more peaceful Europe if Serbia feels appreciated and part of something, then I would say, why not?
Yes you also regarded Polish independence as given by the West despite Poles winning it themselves, there's a lot you assume or regard isnt there? Serbia is definitely well preserved but as far as advancements the only ones they beat are banana states like Belarus or Ukraine.
Poland needed the approval of the Allies after WW1 in a way. I don't know what would've happened if they would not have approved of a Polish independence. I have to admit that I don't see any reason as to why they would not approve to it: they didn't like the Russians because they had thrown the towel into the ring, and they liked to bother Germany as much as they can, so if the Poles wanted their own state and if this were going to be at the cost of German territory, why not? Anyway, I would say that if Serbia gets the opportunities given to her by Western Powers (I am only speaking of the EU, I leave Russia out of it at this point), then something nice should definitively be pssbl yes. It won't be a major force of course, but it will do nicely among mid-range states.
And draw us into the whole Balkan mess which historically has an explosive nature to it, nice.
I think that explosive atmosphere will ease in due time, see my remarks about this above.
NB: I appreciate and acknowledge that there are grudges against Serbia and these have to be taken away, that's why in my conclusion I gave it a timeframe of 20 to 25 years before it will happen.
M-G (lots of typing, pfff)
