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The Zlotych v the Swiss Franc


EdWilczynski 3 | 98
23 Jun 2011 #1
I currently work around Europe and paid in the local currency. Normally the EURO, but lately the Swiss Franc.

Now, I am sure i've seen people on here who have some knowledge of currencies and their projected rise/fall.

exchange-rates.org/Chart.aspx?iso_code=PLN&base_iso_code=CHF&mode=G&filter=180

Can anyone tell me whether its worth moving my money across to the Zlotych now or whether it is safe to leave it where it is for the time being and move it across later. I'm not in it to make a vast amount of money, but i'd like to ensure I don't miss out on the chance to get what is a fairly good return for my money.

Thanks
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
23 Jun 2011 #2
I'd be inclined to leave it alone. While it's hovering around the historical average for the Euro (around 1.95DM/3.9EUR) - the Swiss Franc is a different story - and if you listen to the experts, they'll say that the CHF is now ridiculously overpriced. But given the massive gains that the CHF has made against other currencies - it might collapse, it might not.

In general though, the Zloty is quite an unstable currency - and not something that I'd gamble with. I can't see it falling much further against the CHF - but then again, who would have seen one Swiss Franc being worth more than a dollar?
Wroclaw Boy
23 Jun 2011 #3
Theres a killing to be made on PLN - GBP, i fairly accurately predicted a 20% (was actually about 17%) swing last year between March and June and guess what the proof is on this site. I know im friggen great.....

I havent been watching the Euro much but GBP - PLN has seen little movement over the past 4 months, id say wait till the PLN drops to 4.4 then exchange as much as you can and sit tight, it'll get back to 4.7 and more fairly quickly. Its literally up and down every week between 4.4 - 4.6, almost a sure bet.
ghosty
23 Jun 2011 #4
Trading currencies always has an inherent gambling aspect. This is opinion only I make no recommendations. I specialise in short-term high-leverage trades - Honestly anyone who says they know what will happen tend to have self-interest as their motivator, sometimes their just ignorant.

Poland are giving very good interest rates and the rise is traders borrowing money from low interest countries and placing it it high interest countries for interest benefits,Moving JPY to AUD as an example, known as Carry trades. Poland's manufacturing has taken a dip recently so banks, to help exports, may try to reduce the Zloty to help export and investment by either reducing interest rates or buying euros. If Poland buy euros (to weaken Zlotys) flog off yours for the Zloty. The swissfranc is the strongest it has ever been due to euro problems as traders get out of the euro and into the safe CHF which makes it continue to grow in strength. Election time always has traders nervous and may weaken the zolty as uncertainty spooks traders to get their money out just in case but if you live there it is also a good time to buy zloty's. Personally if I lived in Poland I would want to turn most of my CHF into Zlotys rather than euros.
Wroclaw Boy
23 Jun 2011 #5
Trading currencies always has an inherent gambling aspect. This is opinion only I make no recommendations.

No shite dude.

Honestly anyone who says they know what will happen tend to have self-interest as their motivator, sometimes their just ignorant.

isnt that business ethic in general, a look after NO:1 and screw everybody else attitude. Business men especially any kind of stock traders are some of the biggest scumbags on this planet. It is legal theft. I despise them.

Can anyone tell me whether its worth moving my money across to the Zlotych now or whether it is safe to leave it where it is for the time being and move it across later.

No, nobody can tell you that.
ghosty
23 Jun 2011 #6
stock traders are some of the biggest scumbags on this planet

Stock brokers really. Pretty much anyone with a pension trades stocks, even if they don't know it. Of traders, currency traders are the coldest. I make my cash with very little effort, and sometimes in my sleep.
Wroclaw Boy
23 Jun 2011 #7
I make my cash with very little effort, and sometimes in my sleep.

With a big emphasis on the words MY and I.

Its not your fault dude its the system as i said its a dog eat dog world, everybody out for themselves. I used to do that shite, Mr corporate boy with the BS shirt and tie like im some kind of superior being based on what i did for a living. Looking down on others as they had less financial power than me.

Its so fcuking rotten its unbelievable.

Pretty much anyone with a pension trades stocks, even if they don't know it.

If they dont fcuking know it then theyre not scum are they, but pensions suck anyway, even theyre not safe with scum like you about gambling away their life's savings. Come on.

You fcuking idiot.
ghosty
23 Jun 2011 #8
You fcuking idiot.

A very comfortable one, mind. I'm not sure how I'd do in the twee un-globalized non-corporate world you prefer.
poland_
23 Jun 2011 #9
I don't miss out on the chance to get what is a fairly good return for my money.

CHF/PLN 1 to 3.3 is a good rate, your speculation will be down to two things;

1. What happens in Greece over the next few months.
2. What PO decides to do, after they win the next election.

Interest rates will go up in PL this year 1 maybe 2 times more, by a further 0.25-0.50%

You should remember, you are already speculating on the currency by earning in CHF, all your overheads are in PLN, so why gamble twice. If you converted your current CHF at 3.35 ( very good rate) you could drop it in a Lokata and get maybe 5-7% on a term deposit. Then you can gamble with your savings over the next few months, deciding when to exchange CHF/PLN again and that will give you a cost average, your currency risk will be minimized.

CHF is a safe haven currency now for the Germans and Austrians, but if the **** hits the fan again, USD will be the currency of choice as always.
Wroclaw Boy
24 Jun 2011 #10
A very comfortable one, mind.

Confortable in what manner, a nice arm chair? large bath? what?

I'm not sure how I'd do in the twee un-globalized non-corporate world you prefer.

That all depends on what you have to offer society as an individual really. Preference has nothing to do with it.

By the way next time just show up after you read my response dont wait a few hours till you think im no longer around till you post. I know you read it straight away, you know you read it straight away.
ghosty
24 Jun 2011 #11
By the way next time just show up after you read my response don't wait a few hours till you think im no longer around till you post.

Yes Sir!. I can't tell from where I am if you're AFK or not.
I don't access this site on my phone. Passing through if anything I'm guesting not planning on staying here, though some convo's and oddball's here are fascinating. Comfy in the way you suggest I'm not into fancy ties or Patek watches. Live in a nice area. No stresses, some programming and debugging at worst. Choose my own hours on a 24hr market(Japan's just opening), doing what I enjoy (Global markets is feel like a hobby for me) and not doing work for money I enjoy it the way some enjoy PS3 Crysis. It has the same buzz as gambling as long as you trade the good hands with probability on your side you win more than you lose. Satisfaction of winning - feels like the lottery sometimes...What do I offer society now? Not much; taxes and a couple of Standing orders to charities. I used to work in a hospital for about 7 years as part of my do-gooding phase.

Someone asked about Currencies so I gave him my opinion.

I'm not really ego-driven, I'll just be blowing smoke up my own hole talking about this. I don't have a fight with the world, I move with it.

Bottom line - Freedom. Whether people see me as an idiot, conceited, a dog - whatever,it means nothing to me. My sense of worth or how I might judge others isn't dependent on a shirt and tie.
LwowskaKrakow 28 | 431
9 Aug 2011 #12
but i'd like to ensure I don't miss out on the chance to get what is a fairly good return for my money.

You can move your Swiss Francs to the Zlotych now because the Swiss franc is incredibly high versus any currency given the mess in the US , Asia and Euro zone.

On the other hand it is sad for the thousands of Poles who signed for their mortgage in Swiss Francs some years ago.

I don't think that anywhere in Europe( maybe in Hungary too?) banks could propose loans and mortgages in Swiss Francs , a curency which can only appreciate since it has always been a "safe heaven currency".
convex 20 | 3,978
9 Aug 2011 #13
You can get CHF loans in just about all the CEE countries. People that got CHF loans and didn't hedge...well, kind of ridiculous.
poland_
9 Sep 2011 #14
CHF is a safe haven currency now for the Germans and Austrians, but if the **** hits the fan again, USD will be the currency of choice as always.

Well I don't want to blow my own trumpet, I was so right on June 23, 2011, with the above quote - Watch the USD go over the next few weeks.
Wroclaw Boy
9 Sep 2011 #15
Well done warszawski but did you see mine?

here it is posted on the 23rd June same day as yours

I havent been watching the Euro much but GBP - PLN has seen little movement over the past 4 months, id say wait till the PLN drops to 4.4 then exchange as much as you can and sit tight, it'll get back to 4.7 and more fairly quickly. Its literally up and down every week between 4.4 - 4.6, almost a sure bet.

Zloty is 4.99 against the GBP right now from 4.45 and going up, its much more than i predicted, so £100K a few weeks ago would actually be around £112k today.
poland_
9 Sep 2011 #16
Zloty is 4.99 against the GBP right now

If I remember correctly, SeanBM was waiting for GBP/PLN to hit 5-1, I believe there is still some more downside for PLN.


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