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Posts by kneehawk  

Joined: 17 May 2007 / Male ♂
Last Post: 31 Jul 2007
Threads: Total: 1 / In This Archive: 1
Posts: Total: 47 / In This Archive: 41
From: near london
Speaks Polish?: yes
Interests: talking shit

Displayed posts: 42 / page 1 of 2
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kneehawk   
23 May 2007
Real Estate / property in Lodz - anyone any experience [102]

Hi Bennyboy,
There is a strong possibility that the developer will accept a 10% deposit but he will load the price per sq m although this will not be unreasonable.the situation with interest only mortgages in Poland is changing all the time and in 2 years time there will be a greater choice of product so at present it is not a cause for concern.There will only be 100 flats in this development and they will sell out immediatly.luckily i met with the president of the company 6 weeks ago and have an angle on this email me on c.kaciniel@ntlworld.com and i can tell you more.
kneehawk   
12 Jun 2007
Real Estate / property in Lodz - anyone any experience [102]

Hi Reg,

i will be buying a number of off plan properties at the end of this month.I expect to pay no more than 5800zl per m2.There have been a number of new builds just released in lodz that are very over priced ie the new property secrets development that you cannot even reassign.If you are thinking of a off plan new build development you will need to spend another 10-15% to finish it off.It is very easy to get stitched up in this area.Since most of the off plans take 18mts-2yrs before completion the rental situation could change significantly and i would not like to predict the situation at that time.As all my future offplans will be reassignable i would assess the rental situation approx 4 months before completion and then decide.It will obviously make a huge difference whether you have an interest only mortgage or repayment.The majority of Polish developers require stage payments but not all,my advice is to work with someone even though it might cost you a little who knows what they are doing!
kneehawk   
23 Jul 2007
Travel / Warsaw Etuda airport? [10]

I flew Etiuda to Luton on Saturday afternoon,people were queuing outside the terminal to check in with confusion as to which queue to join for their respective flights.At one stage a rope barrier was erected at the enterence and people were only being let in if they had an imminent departure.Once in ,the gate area was packed and i could not get a seat(i have never been able to get a seat).It was very hot and humid with no aircon and in conclusion a very uncomfortable experiance. It is a new terminal but already too small!
kneehawk   
24 Jul 2007
Real Estate / property in Lodz - anyone any experience [102]

Hi Johnny,

I believe your offer is the cotton mill development in Tymienieckiego st.This is at present the nicest development in lodz.You can search and find these flats for around 7200 from Polish investors who brought for short term capitol appreciation and wish to sell before completion.I am not sure however when the final completions are due.I was in Lodz last Friday looking at properties and there are a number of new developments around at about 6000zl .This city area around Tymienieckiego is destined to be the most desirable residential area of central Lodz,so maybe 8000zl may turn out to be a reasonable price in the longer term
kneehawk   
4 Aug 2007
Real Estate / Whats available in Lodz, looking to buy several units [14]

Donomar,
I think you have misunderstood what Michael C is saying.He is NOT saying that these properties will double in a year .He is saying that hypathetically if you put down a deposit lets say for example £10,000 with balance on completion in 2 years ,after one year the capitol appreciation on the total value may be £10,000 and since the actual investment is £10,000 ,you have actually doubled your money in one year on paper.Your statement that the Polish property market is mature is completely incorrect since the necessary financial products are only now coming on to the market and will still take time to develop.My own experiances are reflected by what Michael is saying
kneehawk   
8 Aug 2007
Real Estate / Advice on what Polish city to invest in.... [101]

Donomar,
You accuse michael m of misrepresenting the facts.lets look at you!
Lately prices in Krakow are falling slowly. How does that explain the rednet last quarter gain in krakow in excess of 8% .
You say that it will be a buyers market soon.Yet you talk about land being a top investment choice(true).Does it not follow that if developers are paying more and more for plots then the price of new build flats will go up !

You talk of the majority of new build developments being of bad quality and not worth the price ,what do you base this on? The Sheiblera development is top end ,but not everyone who rents wants to pay top end rental prices.

You claim there is no rental market in Lodz,according to who? I have been to lodz and spoken to a number of agents ,seen numerous contracts and i simply cannot agree with you.

Finally ,your negativity and frequent inaccuracy in respect of the new build situation in Poland is unhelpful to existing and new forum members looking to invest in new build.
kneehawk   
8 Aug 2007
Real Estate / Advice on what Polish city to invest in.... [101]

Hi Arthur,
Thanks for your encouragement

I just get pissed off with people that spout off on subjects they know nothing about and have no experiance in.It is also annoying to see someone having a pop at an individuals proffessional capacity when they do not know that individual and the standard of service that they provide for their fee.Rather than slate michael first ,why not ask him what services are included in his fee.There are good agents and bad agents, you cannot assume all agents are bad and in any case every investor should conduct their own due diligence.
kneehawk   
8 Aug 2007
Real Estate / Advice on what Polish city to invest in.... [101]

donomar,

99% of developers in Poland do not pay commission to agents such as michael.The agents are paid a finders fee by the investor.

In June the prices were readjusted by 0.4% but the overall quarterly figure is still at more than 8% growth.Just because there is a tiny blip in one month,it does not mean the overall trend has changed

I am not familiar with the Wroclaw market so i cannot comment

The situation regarding yield is more complex than you state.A number of investors would have taken out repayment mortgages as interest only mortgages have only recently become available.This means that hypathetically based on the same amount borrowed arepayment mortgage costing 1000zl per month will cost approxamately 700zl on interest only based on swiss francs. This then means that the pricing differential is minimised because of the financial situation

The majority of polish investors tend to look at the short term ie they like to reassign before completion at a profit .If those flats are then reassigned to other investors (they have been selling at over 7000zlm2) then again the situation changes

The final group are those people that payed cash.Are they really going to want to rent out their property at basement levels? They can command a premium especially to the foreign tennants whose rental may be paid by their company.

When a property is rented out via a management company the tennant would not even Know who the owner is and as long as they like and can afford it why should they care!

Why should i try to create a euphoria. I am not an agent as you are once again incorrectly assuming.I am in fact an investor myself with a number of investments in Lodz ,with a lot more to come.

I have asked you this before in a different thread ,but you did not answer.

What is your experiance of the polish property market?
kneehawk   
8 Aug 2007
Real Estate / Advice on what Polish city to invest in.... [101]

donomar,
i have given you credit where there obviously there is not credit due ,so i will go back to basics,as that is maybe all you can understand.using your criteria of a property valued at 490000subtract a 10% deposit which is exactly a deal i am working on at the moment, and that leaves you with 441000.If you continue to calculate ,the interest only mortgage bases on swiss francs will cost you 1378zl per month.Where the **** did you get 3600 from. i have already told you to use swiss francs .Zl is to expensive.

you seem so preocuppied with the top end ,whatever happenend with the entry and middle market ?
The rest of your comments rest at best on the ridiculous so i cannot be bothered to answer .but i will ask this question yet again ,since you continue to avoid it .What is your experiance of the polish property market?

Sorry,
i forgot to start.The merit of any type of this investment lies in capitol appreciation, and NOT yield (see matey boys first stupid comment)
kneehawk   
9 Aug 2007
Real Estate / Advice on what Polish city to invest in.... [101]

You have set the tone of this debate and not me.It is you who without evidence have accused others of misrepresentation and labelled Irish investors as ignorent so i am merely following the path that you laid down.

You are confusing yield with capitol appreciation.I am using Swiss Francs because that is the cheapest way to finance property in Poland at the moment for the average investor.

If capitol appreciation in Poland was at 6% per annum as you state,then i would not invest in Poland.

I have already agreed that the Schleibera development is the best in Lodz and yes investors who got in quickly got themselves an excellent deal,but as i said before the emergence of interest only mortgages only recently will reduce the deficit and also once those units bought for investment purposes are let and demand drives the rental up there will be new tennants coming into the market all the time and they all cannot live at Schleibera.

If you are among the top 40 single individual investors in Polish property,then without doubt i am the only one true King of England.
kneehawk   
9 Aug 2007
Real Estate / Advice on what Polish city to invest in.... [101]

How many times do i have to tell you before it sinks in.I am a property investor,i am not an agent.How can you possibly call me deceptive.I have answered all of your questions.

The reason i care what happens to the Swiss Franc is because it is my money that i am investing and i am the one that is taking out the loan something you do not understand because you have probably never bought a property in your life!

I will give you a current example of one of the flats that i am about to exchange on and just for you i will keep it simple so just maybe you can grasp the facts.

The flat is in Lodz city centre,off plan with completion in over 2 years time.It is approxamately 54sqm at a price of 6300zlm2 with a deposit of 10% and a garage space at 22000zl.I have also included 15% for fit out that the bank will finance.After the 10% deposit the bank will be financing this to the tune of 371907zl.After a couple of years the interest rate on swiss Francs may well be about 3.75%, so on an interest only mortgage this will equate to a monthly mortgage of 1162zl per month.I have established that for this type of flat ,in this location i can get a rental of around 1600zl per month at present.It will be more in over 2 years time.I am more than covering the cost of the mortgage and will keep the flat for at least 5 years with the capital appreciation that this will bring over 7 years.

This development is closer to the city centre than Schleibera ,the implications of which given your previous comments you would probably not understand.

Your comment about michael c ,dmmm ,and myself is so ridiculous that it does not deserve a reply.

One other thing i will say is that Location is the single most important factor in property investment and one thing that i will agree with matey on is that some developments in Lodz are very overpriced and in less than desirable locations,as a result of this some investors both Polish and foreign will catch a cold.
kneehawk   
10 Aug 2007
Real Estate / Advice on what Polish city to invest in.... [101]

Hi Bigmoe,

You can now obtain a 90%--10% LTV irrespective of the original contract price.Up until a very short time ago you could not leverage ,this has changed and there are some financial products available now that will enable you to do this.I will ask my broker if she minds her email being posted on this site so you could contact her directly if you like ,and obtain a more detailed explanation.
kneehawk   
10 Aug 2007
Real Estate / Whats available in Lodz, looking to buy several units [14]

Donomar,
Go backto minding the copier machine at kpmg or whatever and leave the property debates to people that have forgotten more than you will ever know!

It would be quite amazing if donomar got it right for a change!

Yes ,you got it right, impossible!
kneehawk   
11 Aug 2007
Real Estate / Whats available in Lodz, looking to buy several units [14]

1. I have already bought a number of units in Lodz and am buying more
2. I have bought them off the developer directly
3. On paper i have more than doubled my money

you are reading too many conspiracy thriller novels.

My comments are based on the actual experiances that i have had.You experiances are based on the conversations you have had in the copier room.
kneehawk   
16 Aug 2007
Life / Poor Poland? [34]

You are right Daisy,although he could cover his liability with capital appreciation in 5 years!
kneehawk   
12 Nov 2007
Real Estate / property in Lodz - anyone any experience [102]

you do not want to pay more than about £38,000 for a one room flat in a new build off plan development with stage payments or a bit extra if there is an opportunity for a 10/90 or 20/80 deal.Stick to the area around Tymienieckiego especially with the Textorial Park development imminent just around the corner at Ksiezy Mlyn that will be providing about 1200 jobs in what will be the most exclusive office development in Lodz
kneehawk   
27 Nov 2007
Real Estate / property in Lodz - anyone any experience [102]

Eleanor,
Using your interest rate of 5%,an interest only mortgage would mean a monthly repayment of 806pln assuming you met the fit out costs directly.
kneehawk   
11 Dec 2007
Real Estate / Deals available from Polish property developers [40]

A few days ago i was contacted by a large Polish developer offering me a 5% deposit deal with no loading on a off plan development in Warszawa.This is the first 5% deposit deal that i have ever seen in Poland .

I was wondering if anyone else has been offered inducements by developers to buy off plan in Poland ?
kneehawk   
11 Dec 2007
Real Estate / Deals available from Polish property developers [40]

Thanks JK,
The deal is a very good one,their year end is December and they need the numbers to hit targets.I am more interested in developer deals on offer as a reflection of the slowdown in growth in the major cities with the exception of Katowice and if consistent ,as an indication of a change from the rapid growth of the last 3 years to a steady growth reflected by a soundly based growing economy
kneehawk   
11 Dec 2007
Real Estate / Deals available from Polish property developers [40]

Thanks for your input gdj,but if you can show me a new build flat in a major Polish city that is being flipped at 2/3 of Dec 2006 cost prices then i will happily pay you a fee for finding it for me
kneehawk   
11 Jan 2008
Real Estate / Deals available from Polish property developers [40]

I believe you are sock on Eleanor.
The newspaper article is ridiculous.The journalist had unrealistic expectations in the first place.Can you imagine a journalist or any first time buyer in the uk or Ireland whinging because they cannot afford to buy in central London or Dublin without being laughed at.

As for foreign speculators ,and i have made this comment on a previous thread,all the developers that i have either spoken to or have dealt with say the same thing foreigners account for a tiny percentage of their sales and the biggest speculators have been Polish nationals themselves.

I for one will continue buying property in Poland in the immediate future because the rental situation is looking very rosy indeed.
kneehawk   
26 Feb 2008
Real Estate / Price per sqm in Lodz [9]

7000 looks far too much.Who is the developer and what road is it located on?
kneehawk   
15 Apr 2008
Real Estate / Global Housing Collapse Spreads East [8]

There are still many great deals to be had,especially if you have some cash.There are many Polish speculators as opposed to investors that are desperate to flip for whatever reason and have only two or three months left before completion in a good location.If they do not complete then the developer will usually give them their deposit back and sell the property at a higher price .They might have had this deposit invested for 18 months and be looking for someone to pay them the initial deposit in cash plus for examples sake 70000zl in cash as profit.The property is then reasigned and the buyer applies for a mortgage in the normal way.Because they are desperate to sell you can offer them their initial deposit in cash plus 15000zl profit in cash because some profit is better than no profit at all ,and you walk away with a property based for examples sake on late 2006 prices.

The main problem for some investors is yet to come.Those investors that bought in the second half of 2007 in shite locations and developments and grossly overpaid for their units will find that when they are completing and applying for mortgages the valuation their lender puts on the property will mean that they have a serious shortfall to resolve I forgot to mention that i am only talking about new build off plan flats and apartments.
kneehawk   
19 Jul 2008
Real Estate / Mortgage prices and rates in Poland [28]

I have just had a number of mortgage applications accepted by Metrobank (a subsidiary of Noble ).Loan to value or in reality loan to cost price 90-10.Interest only period 5 years .CHF base.6.6% until registered in loan book( 1-3 months )then 5.6%.Have to pay a one off higher lending charge ,but would not pay this if i put down 25% deposit.From a buy to let perspective the figures stack up and i will be in a positive cash flow situation,i am not unhappy.I have also been able to leverage 10% (put down 20% deposits originally).I use a broker who i am very happy with ,it saves a lot of time and hassle for reasonable cost.