Real Estate /
Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]
There is no bubble in Poland because there is no recession here.
Another reason for worry is that the sale of the so-called national champions - big state-owned companies - which had been advertised as a good way to increase revenue, is not likely to bring as much money as hoped.
"This is going to end, there aren't many national champions left," Stanilko said.
Poland's structural reforms and its counter-cyclical fiscal policy have served it well, but the central bank's intervention on Friday showed that even reforms are not enough when it comes to dealing with market forces.
The trouble is, analysts said, the central bank cannot keep baring its teeth every time foreign investors decide they want to reduce exposure to Poland.
"Intervention cannot be repeated without limits. They can do that one, two times a year, maybe more," Stanilko said.
But he added that Poland doesn't face the same risks a more developed country would face if it were attacked by speculators: "we're lucky this market is shallow, you wouldn't earn much on speculation.
cnbc.com/id/44677331/Foreigners_in_Markets_May_Be_Poland_s_ Next_Problem
KBC: Heavy sell-off on CEE bond markets
14.11.2011 12:10 Monday
Last week the nervousness stemming from euro-zone peripheries was visible across Central European bond markets. So far, it has been mainly visible at FX markets of more vulnerable countries (like in Hungary). The pressure on the fixed income markets is something new for many markets.
For instance, the Czech 10Y yield tracked its German counterpart till the beginning of October as Czech bonds were playing a role of safe heaven mirror for a while. Nevertheless the escalation of the crisis in recent weeks led foreign investors to the liquidation of their positions in Czech bonds too. Hence, the spread over the 10Y German bund has widened by more than 80 bps since the mid October. Meanwhile, negative sentiment prevails also in Hungary (+25 bps on 5Y bond this morning) while the only
Polish market performs slightly better mainly due to higher liquidity and partly probably thanks to interventions of the state owned BGKGovernment intervention costs money, you only support your currency or bonds when you are concerned about your debt.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is likely to reassure financial markets Friday. He will give a speech to parliament outlining what could be an ambitious plan for fiscal consolidation.
Also of interest for Poland-focused investors will be labor market data. That could give more indication of whether the Polish economy is slowing like some economists anticipate or whether it remains surprisingly resilient to the debt problems of its trading partners in the euro zone.
Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect average wages in Poland to have grown 5.1% on the year in October and employment to have risen 2.5%. Both rates of growth are expected to be lower than those seen in September
POLAND: Poland's central bank is likely to keep its policy rates unchanged for all of 2012 despite a recent rise of inflation, said Andrzej Bratkowski, member of the National Bank of Poland's 10-strong Monetary Policy Council.
It is a very difficult place for PM Tusk, they can't move, if PNB are not increasing interest rates in 2012 they expect a slowdown in the economy to keep inflation in check. If I was a gambling man I would say after the Euphoria of Euro 2012, Q3 2012 the pendulum will swing over to the camp of Milky.
SPIEGEL: Is it conceivable that the EU will cut back on other spending in the future because of the unimaginably expensive bailout funds? Spending such as subsidies and structural assistance, which has also helped Poland in recent years?
Belka: We're worried about that, of course. It would be a violation of the accession agreements. The deal, at the time, was this: We adjust our markets, and you help us in the process. If this were no longer the case, it would be a breach of promise.
spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,794969,00.htm
