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Posts by Avalon  

Joined: 11 Sep 2007 / Male ♂
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Last Post: 6 Dec 2015
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Avalon   
8 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Building in Poland, house builders quote prices with foundations? [8]

You will have plans and building regs. Get the builder to price everything on the drawing/project. Anything that is not shown, paths, fencing, garden walls, patio etc, should be written into a separate contract

and priced accordingly. You will need to hire a building inspector to check the works as they proceed, he will need to stamp the building book. Do not deviate from the project plans as you will be fined, even for a minor infraction.

There are lots of pitfalls, so be careful.
Avalon   
5 Sep 2012
Law / Polish Contracts [6]

There was something mentioning this on the EU regulations website, concerning consumer law and "unfair contracts" but it seems to have been removed? I actually used it to get my mobile phone contract cancelled but I never kept a copy of the regulation. I think perhaps they got ridof it because it was unreasonable to ask (say a ) Polish retailer/service provider to keep printed contracts in 27 languages.

You should always get someone you trust to read and explain the contract to you. If the supplier/service provider deviates from the contract in any way then the contract is void. Pre-printed contracts with the amounts of money involved and time limits (ie: 24 months) are not legal, these must be spaces left on the pre-printed form, filled in by hand and initialled by the customer.
Avalon   
5 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

The cost of living has gone up 20%. Their capital has not been protected, it buys around 20% less. People haven't had wages rises, but prices have risen by 20% so they have less disposable income to save for and pay for property.

Lets stick with the the example of my home city of Bristol which I gave yesterday but lets go back over a 12 year period:-

Average Property Selling Prices in Bristol (£000's)

Apr 2000 May 2012 Change
Detached £149,481 £313,687 +110%
Semi £100,102 £210,581 +110%
Terraced £78,086 £182,606 +134%
Flat £83,464 £174,151 +109%
All £94,706 £202,182 +113%

Inflation rate in the UK between 2000-2011 totals = 22.7% or 2.06% per year

Can you tell me the loss of the property capitol due to inflation?

The government gives the figures for inflation by using a "basketful" of goods and services and monitors their prices over a monthly period. I believe they exclude mortgages and benefits.

Since 2008, most people have been cutting back on their expenditure and shopping around for cheaper bargains. A lot have been repaying debt and forgoing holidays and new cars. Many people deal in cash with their business's so it would be safe to assume that not all this money is declared as income. (basically the same way as people cannot understand how the Poles survive on 1500 PLN per month)

A slow steady inflation rate such as what has been seen in the UK over the past 11 years doesn't really hurt your wallet. Most businesses give yearly raises of three to five percent per year, and the yearly inflation rate has averaged out at 2% per year.

When inflation really hurts, is when it rises faster than wages. You can probably cope with a one or two year spiral of this sort, but when inflation out paces wages for an extended period of time, you will then feel the crunch, but with the figures as they are, only people who cannot manage their money and who over borrowed are going to be in trouble.
Avalon   
4 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

prices are at 2006 level but that ignores the 20% rise in inflation

And how many people have had a 20% pay rise since 2006?, what does inflation mean to those whose wages have been frozen? Inflation is bad, deflation is bad. I think the people who live in that particular road would be very happy to have lived free for the past 6 years, their capitol is still intact.
Avalon   
4 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

This would allow potential buyers to comparisons between then and now - for whatever reason. Must be a website that does that!!

I think that this is what you are hoping to find but I am not sure that this history of prices exists in Poland:-

25 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5ST
Terraced, Freehold, Not New Build

£160,000..............22-Mar-2012

12 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5SP
Terraced, Freehold, Not New Build
£181,000.............15-Nov-2010

38 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5SP
Terraced, Freehold, Not New Build

£170,000..............01-Oct-2010

35 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5ST
Detached, Freehold, Not New Build

£182,000.............06-Sep-2010

10 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5SP
Terraced, Freehold, Not New Build

£143,000.............19-Sep-2008

33 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5ST
Semi-Detached, Freehold, Not New Build

£150,000..............02-Apr-2007

4 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5SP
Terraced, Freehold, Not New Build

£179,950.............16-Feb-2007

8 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5SP
Terraced, Freehold, Not New Build

£182,500............08-Dec-2006

23 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5SP
Terraced, Freehold, Not New Build

£163,500...........02-May-2006

12 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5SP
Terraced, Freehold, Not New Build

£180,000............14-Feb-2006

19 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5SP
Terraced, Freehold, Not New Build

£177,000............19-Jan-2006

33 Clarence Road, Staple Hill, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, BS16 5ST
Semi-Detached, Freehold, Not New Build

£129,995.............28-Jun-2005

This is a street that I know well in my home city. Small Victorian terraced houses. It's amazing that there have been none of the 20-30% falls in price that seem to be proclaimed by the media. Any fluctuations are possibly caused by the condition of the property and how well it has been looked after. The interesting one is number 10, this was bought after the financial crash and has appreciated considerably in value since. Again, a good indication of supply and demand, coupled with a good location.
Avalon   
4 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

For those who think prices can not fall to 2004 levels should note that gant share price (theoretically the sum of all future profits) is at 2005 levels.

Yes I was being a bit Tongue in cheek and the debt is a huge factor.

So you think the banks are going to allow house prices to fall to 2004 levels and leave everyone who bought after 2005 in negative equity, thus leaving the banks owed huge property debts that will mean they are even more under capitalised than they are now and taking huge losses on mortgage repayments, forcing the governments to cough up even more taxpayers money to keep the banks from going under.

For Poland, this would be the same scenario as Spain, where, if the banks were to release a flood of repossessed property onto the market, this would depress the prices further and deplete the banks balance sheets even more. Maybe this is why Spanish banks require 100,000,000 Euros plus from the ECB at the moment. Of course, Poland does not have the excessive amount of property or debts of the Spanish banks yet.
Avalon   
27 Aug 2012
Life / Poland needs more immigrants and their children - which nationalities are the best? [518]

They all started off with the promise of doing the best for their constituents/people, they all lied. The fact that they reached the top only goes to show that they lied better than those around them.

Honest men seem to be in a very small minority. Edmund Burke (1729-1797) on being asked why he wanted to be a member of Parliament replied " I wish to have my share of doing good and resisting evil",

possibly the last, honest, politician.
Avalon   
22 Aug 2012
News / Poland's Economy Is Booming! The EU's Success Story? [711]

The European economy is becoming more unstable with each passing day, and investors all over the globe are looking for safe places to put their money.

I posted this in Oct.2011

"Or could it be that the banks made some dodgy loans/investments which are causing liquidity problems + the new financial regulations which are insisting on 9% capitol reserves. If banks have been leveraging the debts because of greed, they are going to have a problem lending any more money. Its not a case of "what the banks know", its "what we don't know about the banks". How much toxic debt do they still have on their books?, how much soveriegn debt that will never be repaid?, any more 50% write downs?"

I was wrong, the write downs for Greece were 75% and could still go to 100%.

Banks are still not lending and the Euro is under considerable threat.
Avalon   
16 Aug 2012
Real Estate / Buying an apartment in Poland or renting is better? [12]

The issue is - you can't look at historical prices and expect that prices will go down to the previous level. This will never happen. Property market changed in last 10 years and there is no going back, unless something very drastic happens.
The way I interpret this graph? I think prices might go down a bit more (not much) then stay there for a little while and start going up.

The voice of reason. Now expect to get rebuked by Milky because you do not agree with his long time predictions.
Avalon   
10 Aug 2012
News / Poland's Economy Is Booming! The EU's Success Story? [711]

A few weeks ago, I read that Poland was the European country with the highest income inequality. It is easy to tell that there is a very rich minority and all the others (more numerous) who struggle.

Never mind, come the revolution we will all be equal, and have shares in nothing.
Avalon   
9 Aug 2012
News / Amber Gold and other Poland's suspicious institutions [139]

it is not the "average joe" 's remit to speculate on/hedge interest rates, that is the banks role

Hedge/speculate? where is their risk when they fix the libor rates? The banks cannot lose because they never play fair.
Avalon   
9 Aug 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Of course I could be wrong!

Perhaps.

"Two months ago, I would never have said we would be where we are today. There is no logical justification for the złoty's appreciation just as there is no justification for the fact that other emerging markets like Mexico, South Africa and Turkey have also seen huge foreign capital in-flows and an appreciation of their currency in recent days," said Przemysław Kwiecień, chief economist at X-Trade Brokers.

wbj.pl/article-60031-zloty-appreciation-illogical.html
Avalon   
9 Aug 2012
News / Amber Gold and other Poland's suspicious institutions [139]

I know a few people who are in serious trouble because of this. Worth mentioning that most of them have mortgages on more than one flat.

Its a shame that these people were not offered "Tracker mortgages"at the time (2007-2008), they would not have had any problems until now.
Avalon   
7 Aug 2012
Australia / Any nice Polish people in Perth? [78]

You never seem to be happy unless you are all walking in teams of six or seven in town centres annoying local people. No wonder the rest of the world pretty much detest you all.

For one moment, I thought you were writing about an average night in an English city.
Avalon   
5 Aug 2012
UK, Ireland / First proper "Polish" School in the UK - The Next Stage of Ghettoisation [283]

Blair's migration speech:-

"We are putting in place a strategy - globally, nationally and locally - to ensure migration works for Britain today and in the future."

"The number of low-skilled workers that are allowed into the country from outside the EU remains small compared to other countries and is controlled by strict quotas - all of which we will now cut significantly following the expansion of the EU."

"No-one will be able to come to the UK from anywhere in the enlarged EU simply to claim benefits or housing. There will be no support for the economically inactive."

"When Spain joined the EU there were scare stories about economic migrants. Now, because of the way Spain has thrived in the EU, 300,000 UK citizens live there."

Just a few quotes from the classic speech on immigration that Blair gave in 2004 in the year of his re-election and the reason I gave up and left the UK. Not because I was racist, because I knew that I was going to be asked to pay for it.

If you want a real laugh, read the full text of his speech, :-

From 1 May, people from the ten accession countries will be able to travel freely and to take up self-employment opportunities in every member country of the EU - not just the UK. No country will be able to turn back residents of Poland or Lithuania or any other accession country at their border. In this we are no different from any of our European neighbours.

guardian.co.uk/politics/2004/apr/27/immigrationpolicy.speeches

Socialism at it's best. And the way the present government is performing, Labour will get in again at the 2015 election.
Avalon   
5 Aug 2012
UK, Ireland / First proper "Polish" School in the UK - The Next Stage of Ghettoisation [283]

im not so sure about that, some say they (the politicians) simply got it wrong as in they predicted something like 100,000 Poles turning up but instead millions came.

David Blunkett, the then labour foreign minister, predicted between 12-15,000 in the first year (2004-2005). Mind you, he did have a guide dog.
Avalon   
4 Aug 2012
UK, Ireland / First proper "Polish" School in the UK - The Next Stage of Ghettoisation [283]

Add to the fact they send a good amount of money out of the country thus training our economy.

That is hilarious. I can assure you that the Poles do not send anywhere near the amounts abroad that the UK government does, 13 billion a year in Foreign aid and 53 million every single day to the EU, not even including the money used for bailouts to the PIGS. These are published amounts, not the guesswork that you use. Ask your friends (if you have any) and the people around you, what they are more concerned about.

You worry about the little things and cannot see the bigger picture
Avalon   
3 Aug 2012
UK, Ireland / First proper "Polish" School in the UK - The Next Stage of Ghettoisation [283]

Laughable really. I like the Anglo-Saxon Immigrants angle on things. Funny.
Illegal Immigrants & Pakistanis.. heard it all before. Deflecting the issue

You seem to be the one who is deflecting the issue. Polish people move to England to work, usually for an employer. They pay tax and NI. Considering the number of Pakistani's who reside in the UK, think of how many actually work for employers. When I lived in the UK, it was either, corner shops, market stalls, restaurants, take-aways or taxi's, in short, anything that involves cash payments. I wonder why they prefer this kind of work instead of a nice manual job in construction or civil engineering. I had a company for over 30 years in the UK and not once did I get an enquiry for work from our Asian friends.

Again, the Poles are working legally, the same as hundreds of thousands of British who work throughout the world.
If you feel threatened by the competition from EU nationals, you can always move abroad. There is always the option to take your case to the European courts of Justice and complain that your rights have been breached, good luck with that!!, being English, you have no rights. This may change when you have Sharia law.
Avalon   
3 Aug 2012
UK, Ireland / First proper "Polish" School in the UK - The Next Stage of Ghettoisation [283]

Nice free council house, free money, tax credits, NHS,

And you and your ilk voted for the political parties that allowed this.The main influx of immigrants entered the UK from 1997, under the Labour parties open door policy, the British people then voted in the same party for a further two terms, now you want things to go back as they were. It's taken 15 years for you to realise that the multi-cultural society does not work. Even your present government of the Con-Libs , after two years in power, are only now (reluctantly) taking steps to lower the yearly entry from third world countries.

My reasons for believing that the Poles will return in large numbers is the fact the present, inept British government will end up bankrupting the country, they are borrowing more money now than the previous one. Most of the proposed cuts have not even kicked in yet and the economy is getting worse. Further cuts will have to be made and there will be massive social unrest.

You mention 500,000 Poles living "legally" in the UK, yet you make no mention of the 500,000 failed asylum seekers, foreign students who overstayed their visa's, medical tourists who never return home which makes me find your agenda a little suspect.

If you want to blame anybody, try your own government, send your protests to them and see if they give a siht about what you think.
Avalon   
2 Aug 2012
UK, Ireland / First proper "Polish" School in the UK - The Next Stage of Ghettoisation [283]

130,000 Polish children registered in the UK in 2009
Absolutely staggering.

At the same rate, the number receiving passports - and with them the right to full benefits - this year is predicted to reach 220,000, smashing the record total of 164,540 set in 2007.

telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5597504/Number-of-immigrants-given-passports-predicted-to-reach-a-record-220000.html

I think you ought to get your priorities in order. A lot of Polish will return to their homeland, you will never get the others to go back, they have it too easy, living off your taxes.
Avalon   
25 Jul 2012
Life / New in Poland! Not yet jaded and loving it [34]

Time to assimilate and learn Polish Avalon...

Already have,been here nine years now.

...or just go back home where English is spoken.

You have obviously not been to England for a long time, you would find it difficult to hear English out on the streets, Polish maybe, as they have all assimilated and speak English all the time.

I just wouldn'y blame USPS clerk if he/she couldn't figure it out if I wrote Polska instead of Poland on an envelope.

The clerk being an American I can believe you, but I am sure if you posted a letter in the UK to Polska, the post office clerk would not think that it was to be sent to Patagonia just because that starts with a P and ends with an A.
Avalon   
24 Jul 2012
Life / New in Poland! Not yet jaded and loving it [34]

Perhaps the government should warn tourists visiting Poland not to send postcards home, in case it confuses the poczta staff. Probably quicker to take it back and deliver it yourself anyway.
Avalon   
24 Jul 2012
Life / New in Poland! Not yet jaded and loving it [34]

Guess what,official language in Poland is POLISH.If you have said Anglia or Wielka Brytania you would get the exact stamps you needed

Yes, I was a bit stupid, I wrote "United Kingdom" on the envelope. The funny thing is, when I first came to Poland I did not speak any Polish, unusual yes?