Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

wbj/article-53836-polish-apartment-prices-continue- to-fall.html

if asking prices fell 10% then the sales prices must have fallen more than 10%.

And looks like there is some bullshitting estate agents on Polish Forums, 10% is a major fall.

When prices rise by 70-80% over a 2 year period and then fall by 10%, it is not a "major fall", it's a correction. Ask anyone that bought prior to 2006.

I follow the property threads on this forum and cant recall any bullshitting agent statements.

Ask anyone who bought at the beginning of the year. 10% is a major fall in prices. How many people bought after 2006, lets ask them and see what their attitude is.

That sort of collapse stops people buying and locks in negative equity which is damaging to a housing market, when people stop buying, prices fall further, its a negative feedback loop. Banks respond too and cut down their lending exposure, prices fall further.

10% plus inflation is a 15% real world fall in value.

Again, I ask you to cite your sources for this information. I have seen no evidence of prices falling by 10%.

Here in Warsaw there is a new housing project planned for Milanowek area, 20 houses at 5.5 million PLN each, 8 have already been sold since the release in Jan 2011. So it makes you think about housing problems.

Again, for the 100th time, I suggest you look at my original post, there is a link.


Yes, it makes you think that it's irrelevant, even if they had actually been bought as opposed to 'reserved for future purchase'.

"in the fourth quarter of 2010 shows that average prices fell over the year by 9.7 percent. in Poznan, by 7.1 percent. in Warsaw and Lodz and Wroclaw, about 6.9 percent., while in Krakow by more than 5.6 percent"

I still fail to see how you can make a "sweeping statement" that prices have fallen by 15%. Surely it would be more correct to say that prices have fallen by UP TO 10%, which, I and others have put down to a correction, not a crash. I am in full agreement that developers who built for the top end of the market are going to suffer big hits, but, for the average buyer, the developer will simply cut back on the "little extras" that make a project "really good", thus maintaining their profit margin.

Anyone that bought at the beginning of this year has no reason to feel "hard done by" as they will have bought at a discounted price. As long as the developer and the client are both happy I cannot see a problem. It seems pointless trying to blame the developer if the client borrows more than they can repay.

When you buy something off plan it is always reserved for future purchase, you can't own something that has not been built in Poland.

The asking price for new apartment units across Poland fell by 10 percent last year, reports Rzeczpospolita.

Increasingly, supply is starting to outpace demand, with a number of finished dwellings sitting empty, no takers in sight. Customers have learned that flats still under construction are usually cheaper during residential pre-sales

The article is about developers dropping the price of their stock, it is not the Polish real estate market collapsing. You need to point out what is actual, not jump to conclusions.

if asking prices fell 10% then the sales prices must have fallen more than 10%.

Depends what units we are talking about, usually new units command a higher price than the older types...10% is not a high amount as prices are inflated in the first instance.

I don't think prices will fall but in fact rise as time goes on, the suggestion that real estate/property developers have hijacked this forum! well may be, they have to sell there wear somewhere I suppose.

In fact they are probably doing you a favour in the sense that it makes you more suspicious and makes you do more investigation before buying.

In the big picture Polands real estate is still undervalued, as wages increase so will real estate prices.

The prices have to continue falling,, bubbles always burst...It's a physical fact.

Do you not find it strange that nobody agrees with you?. What does an Irishman who does not even live in Poland, know about the residential market?. By the way, you always seem to post at obscure times of the early morning (01:44), are you working shifts or is this the time your local bar closes?

Have you noticed that the cost of living has been increasing at the fastest rate for 20 years, food, energy etc. I suppose that you think in your deluded mind that this will drive down the cost of construction, perhaps the workers will accept 50% cuts in their wages to build the new homes that are needed.

Shareholders in the largest building companies will decide that they no longers want dividends from the profits of the company and will invest, specifically to make a loss.

Dom Holdings, the largest house builder in Poland, recently announced that their sells last year were 75% up on the year before and expect to sell even more units this year. Profits are not so high but demand is still there. Stop looking at the Irish/American market and do som e research, it could stop you looking stupid.

Do you actually read other peoples posts before commenting?

Its says askingprices, and real price of 15% is including inflation.


Well, I do having seen some real world , actual figures.


Then why are they cutting asking prices?


You do not have to go through with the purchase.


You do not have to go through with the purchase.


wbj/article-54031-polish-house-prices-expected-to-drop-further.html

peterweg

"The report notes that developers have gradually become less optimistic about being able to earn a lot of money from selling houses."

And this is news?..talk about stating the obvious!!!..tell me a business that has not factored in the financial crises and expects to make less profit. Its taken the NBP experts 3 years to realise this?

Yeah, last time i checked we were right in the middle of the most serious GLOBAL recession the world has ever known. Just been watching the news actually and Portugal needs a ridiculous amount of money to get themselves out of the shite.

This is completely nuts.

Says who? It could just be that people are cutting the asking prices so as to get more people to look at their properties but have cut (perhaps completely) the amount by which they are willing to negotiate the price.

You are right, selling prices could have fallen even further but they were hidden. It doesn't negate the fact the prices are falling in a very substantial way.

Or they could have gone up: we simply don't know.


Not really. Anybody who bought before 2007 is still quids in and in a major way. And based on what a flat in my building is currently on the market for (and what I know for a fact the owner will accept as a sale price), my place has still tripled in value since I bought it in 2000.

the financial crisis will come to everyone, no one will be spear sooner or later every country will get it.
global economy = global crisis

The issue here is that everyone has finally wised up to the fact that new build is not the promised land and actually, increasingly is a complete con once the next row of flats/garages/etc goes up and screws with the view you thought you were going to have out of your front window.

Those who can are looking at terrace houses, houses outside the city, etc, where price per metre is noticeably lower. It was only a matter of time before the market wised up to those eggboxes and what a bloody nightmare they are to live in.

I'm kamienicy all the way, me. Ceilings high enough you can actually think, beams thick enough your walls don't start shaking the second the upstairs neighbour's cat starts scratching its arse, an ornamental piec if you get lucky. OK, in that market (Poznan) there has been a bit of market correction too, but nothing to suggest a crisis.

Said it before and I'll say it again, peeps: 10% is a market correction. The people opposite did a full refit of a flat and were very surprised not to have any interest in the asking price of 430K PLN. But their perception was distorted for two reasons:

- the asking price was unrealistic in the first place (we paid 380K for the same size flat, much better condition even before renovation, at the top of the market)

- Their misvalued their own investment of time and money into the renovation.

Profiteers having completely uncalibrated expectations does not signal the final crash of the capitalist system.

The thing is, is that there's still plenty of demand for housing.

Plus, prices in Warsaw need to fall quite a bit more for younger folks to be able to buy them.

The same thing happened in PL in 1999 and then 2001 it was back to normal. As the road infrastructure gets better in Warsaw, people will move out to houses in the burbs.

And how long is it going to take to fix the roads. They are pitiful and it will take decades.

I reckon another 10-15% fall in next 24 months - prices compared to earnings are still way to high and incomes of average Poles are badly squeezed at the moment by petrol and clothing price increases. It much better financially to rent at the moment.

Why don't you have a look instead of just jumping to false assumptions?
stadiony.klszarak.org/scc_a_s.swf

No no, I mean the DK8/A1/A4 route to Krakow is more than good enough. Although if you ask me - the S7 should just get built as toll motorway and be damned - Poland just hasn't got the money to build free expressways.

Never understood why, for instance, there's a stubborn insistence on building the S5 from Poznan-Wroclaw as expressway - wouldn't it just be much better for everyone for it to get built as a toll motorway?

Yep, that's the case.

Check out air flights they'll tell you the same thing over the past ten years.


I'll call you misinformed instead.


It is stupid that Krakow does not and will not (for the foreseeable future) have a motorway linking it to the nation's capital.
But not having won the euro 2012 championship rights, it is the same level of disappointment.


It goes through many small towns, and as quaint as that is, it's a pain in the arse.

I think it's just a question of priorities - Krakow will have the A4 going directly to Germany and Ukraine, the A1 to Gdansk and Lodz isn't far away, and there's already a dual carriageway route all the way to Warsaw - so building the S7 wouldn't seem to be a huge priority. But again - it should just be built as a toll motorway rather than bothering with all the nonsense of trying to scrape together the cash to pay for an expressway.

The real problem is going to hit soon - the A4 will soon become tolled along the entire length, the A2 will be tolled between Konin and Strykow and other motorways might get tolled too.

"there's already a dual carriageway route all the way to Warsaw "

Where is this. AFAIK, there is no dual dual carriageway route anywhere between Krakow and Warsaw, except around Kielce.

"the A1 to Gdansk and Lodz isn't far away"

From what??? Not Krakow, obviously.

Whats the average price for a 2 bed appartment

Obviously it depends where and what. Something like 8-10K PLN per square meter in cities.

Rather expensive compared to average wages.