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Prediction: Poland to be World Superpower in XXI century [147]
Still, I believe that kickstart options are viable.
How will they pay for them?
Anyway, this is about Poland. Sokrates, you are Polish, what do you think?
I think that Poland built a regional power once upon a time despite the odds and that proves something, if circumstances are right it can do it again and circumstances are slowly becoming right, Friedmans book is a lot of bull and US masturbation though.
If Russia and Germany fall into hard times you end up with 3 natural nexuses of power in Europe, France and UK and Poland.
France and UK by principle of being huge stable economies and Poland by being the next largest kid on the block in central and eastern Europe, if we'd assume some turmoil in which Russia is an actuall side, Germany is unable or unwilling to intervene it falls down to Poland to play with its neighbours.
Friedman did get one thing right and thats an extremely interesting point, Russia is virtually guaranteed to fall apart in our lifetime in a way thats both dramatic and permanent, in the event Eastern European countries might go for landgrab and a thousand other opportunities can open that permanently shifts the balance of power eastwards in Europe and since we're the wealthiest, the most stable if we play it right potential gains can be enormous and long lasting.
One thing i agree with his book is that Poland is likely to govern Belarus directly in some form or other in the future, Belarussian economy is riding the russian wallet, without it Belarus can and will experience such a social, political and economic collapse thats right now unthinkable outside Africa.
In case of Russian decline Poland can offer help, aid and install its sockpuppets especially since Belariusians have rather weak national identity and buying them and re-creating them into something else is easier than with Ukraine.
So can Poland become a very powerfull state in our lifetime? Probably yes but it all hinges on how long with Russia last and how well will the Polish goverment play out opportunities unfolding in the event of such a collapse.
If Russia manages to reform itself against all odds then Poland will just stay where it is, in 15-30 years it will reach something nearing Spanish standards of economy and welfare, its probably going to demand a larger slice of pie and get it as far as say in EU goes, and will become a significant EU member but thats it.
