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Posts by cms  

Joined: 4 Sep 2009 / Male ♂
Last Post: 22 Feb 2018
Threads: Total: 9 / In This Archive: 8
Posts: Total: 1253 / In This Archive: 915

Speaks Polish?: yes

Displayed posts: 923 / page 25 of 31
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cms   
23 Oct 2012
Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]

Yes will be in Warsaw mid nov and we can settle it. First half presume you have won. On Wroclaw let's wait for data before i concede as it's absolutely tanking.
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29 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Inwroclaw the answer to all your questions is no. Unemployment trends are negative and though the govt would like to cut interest rates it would have two bad effects - weakening bond sales thus increasing the deficit, and weakening the zloty.

You might get a cut to 4.25 but would be amazed if any lower in next 2 years
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23 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Księga Wieczysta (no entry) [16]

Yes, it was complicated with ownership and was still in days when you needed Ministry of Interior permit - it went on for about 4 months even before the permit application and absorbed a lot of phone costs as I was out of the country most of the time - one of the biggest issues was that the other guy wouldnt open a bank account, let alone apply for the KW stuff.

Its proved to be a great investment however (probably wouldnt sell it as it is a perfect summer house). It was cheap and when you get very cheap deals sometimes you need to accept risks - as I said if you feel unsure get a second opinion from a lawyer. I'm doing something else at the moment at the list of attachments to the Akt Notarialny is now up to 30.

Not sure if anyone can correct me on this but I dont think the KW is a failsafe proof of title or even a failsafe proof that no mortgage exists - I remember several cases in my business life where we had rented properties from someone who showed us the KW only for some other guy to show up with a competing claim. However once you are physically in situ its very difficult to get you out.
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22 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Księga Wieczysta (no entry) [16]

If the property you are looking at is an old cooperative property there may be no kw. That happened to me one time before and i went ahead, but it was a few years back.

If you don't tryst your lawyers view then get a second opinion - will only cost you a few hundred zloty and would be more reliable than asking on here.
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21 Sep 2012
Work / Can an English person work in Poland without speaking the language? [13]

1000 on a course means you have to earn about 5000 zeds to break even. If teachers are now happy to do it for 20 zeds an hour - well, you do the math.

250 hours of teaching to repay your investment does not seem too onerous - thats less than two months work for an average Polish labourer. After that everything is profit apart from your bus tickets and your shirt. Yes I'm aware that there is travel time and holiday time but deal with it - put some extra in at weekends or evenings.
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13 Sep 2012
UK, Ireland / Polish Families Moving to Scotland or back to Poland [23]

There's no way that the EU can afford to leave Scotland out in the cold - the oil, gas and hydroelectric energy sector, as well as the fish are far too important.

Dont forget the shipbuilding and the coal mines !
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11 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

You are mixing up statistics - uk savings are about 40k per head- in pounds. More than 6x the polish amount.
Poland also has a household debt figure. From memory it's about 300 pln per head. Not much.

If you net the savings and debt amounts then despite being totally in the mire the uk household is bvously much wealthier.

There are plenty of other factors that depress prices apart from lack of credit - more important are falling real wages, unemployment over 10 percent apparently permanently, reduced labour mobility, higher interest rates, inability of poles to raise a deposit and most importantly from day 1 of economics o level there is an oversupply of unsold, apartments.
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8 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

1 trillion zloty is about 30k per head. Doesn't really support the theory that prices are going to rise, in fact it's less than the required deposit for a modest 50sqm apartment in most big towns.

Of course it is a record since history consists of serfdom followed by colonialism, oligarchy, nazi rule and communism.
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7 Sep 2012
Language / What do you say in a doctors surgery to ask "Who is next in line?" [19]

what I find a bit weird here is that if you are standing back say 1 metre from an unmanned counter (which is kind of the British way) then someone will come in and assume that you are not in the line, but just vaguely hanging around. Happened to me a couple of days ago buying a ticket for a carousel and my son lost his right to the cherished fire engine !
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5 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

You will probably win. Though I was correct in picking wroclaw as the worst performing town then on these numbers It's only 12 percent down.

Probably will get to a 20 percent drop eventually, it's just taken longer than I expected.

Still a month to go though ! In any case I'm fairly happy about getting 300 k off the asking price of the new place. Notary next week fingers crossed.
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5 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

The polish version of the report actually talks about falling real wages which is correct in many sectors.

Suggest you check their website as the research itself is robust and is based on transaction prices not asking prices - amron is set up by a group of banks to monitor mortgage lending.
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4 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I explained my reasoning. Share prices in theory represent the discounted sum of a companys future cash flows ( google it if you don't beliieve me) . Of course these earnings are not known so the prices are the best estimates. What buyers of the shares at e moment are saying is that the anticipated future earnings are the same as they were in 2005. Yes I was being a bit Tongue in cheek and the debt is a huge factor.

Delph generally the banks don't like to manage distressed assets themselves - it consumes manpower and legal fees. So you are correct t- it's a bit of a vicous circle though, if the bank saw lots of flats being sold below list price in a big development they might get very stressed and start to enforce covenants or even trigger bankruptcy - all depends where the bank stands in the pecking order of creditors. You can negotiate the price of any asset and you are probably experienced enough now to do that.
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4 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

One of the biggest residential developers looks like it is in serous trouble , according to today's GW. Gant has circa 450 m zloty of debt that it has to renegotiate.

For those who think prices can not fall to 2004 levels should note that gant share price (theoretically the sum of all future profits) is at 2005 levels.
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2 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Its about 70k from warsaw, and its a house not a flat. What you are looking for is a far more liquid market hence you should probably aim more for the 15-20 percent discount. If you have 5 places on your shortlist then one of them will go for it.

What people say about the polish mentality is only applicable up to a point,normally when the bank starts pressing them to repay their credit.
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2 Sep 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

It's good advice from delph. The more expensive or individual the property the bigger discount you can try and get, I have just got 28 percent off the asking price for a place. That will be difficult to achieve in wola or mokotow but 15-20 percent is possible provided you have got your funding in place and are ready to execute.

Be careful of deep discounts on new developments and check that the infrastructure is in place - otherwise you might end up the only tenant in a half finished apartment block, with the developer having gone to the wall long ago. This can be the case even in good locations - I drove past a very well located development in Poznan last week and saw maybe 2 out of 100 apartments looking occupied.

If you get a cut price of say 15 percent and then spend months messing around with a bank then the seller will probably do a deal with someone in the meantime, so make sure you already know what kind of mortgage you would want etc.
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30 Aug 2012
Law / Where is Warsaw's CBD? [3]

Doesn't have as clearly defined as in American cities but the busiest office place is between rondo onz and the station, about 2 k west of where you are
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27 Aug 2012
Law / Rights of a consumer when dealing with faulty goods in Poland? [65]

There are some fees with the e- sad, about 20 percent of the normal court fees, so somewhere around 100 zloty.

The success rate of the e- sad is about 80 percent but once you get a positive judgement you have to wait ages for execution as the amounts are too small for the komorniks to give them proper attention. The komorniks also know that it's easier to frighten a small businessman than pitch up in piaseczno and try and get cash out of auchan.

Atnany rate it's not going to be a very effective tool against media markt or auchan. If they decide to contest the case then it will automatically be referred to a physical court, probably in the place where the retailer has their head office. Since most of these guys employ 10-15 lawyers in-house then they will certainly not ignore any e-sad cases. Once you are in a physical court case you will waste more time and money than your router or washing machine cost in the first place.

I would advise you to hassle them at the point of sale as much as possible. Be aware however that if you are abusive then they are within their rights to ban you from the premises, which might be a problem if the place you normally shop at
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12 Aug 2012
News / Poland's Economy Is Booming! The EU's Success Story? [711]

The cars thing is not really an indication of wealth, more a sign of immaturity in people's attitude to wealth. Most are leased or bought by employers, in fact if you speak to employers here one frustration is that you rarely get half an hour in to an interview with even clever candidates before they start bellyaching about what car they want. And I've almost come to blows with people demanding black cars when the group policy is blue.

Delphians parable about the guy with alcoholic parents is a case in point. A top of the range merc is pushing 300 k zloty. If the guy really wanted to give his own kids a stable start he would pay down a big chunk of his house with that and make do with a Volkswagen or ford
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10 Aug 2012
News / Amber Gold and other Poland's suspicious institutions [139]

The authorities had no legal right to meddle into Amber Gold`s functioning. Only when a client reports his/her case to prosecutors, action can be taken.

This is one that really surprizes me. My own business trades a lot of forex and we get inspections almost every year from the NBP (not the KNF admittedly). We have done nothing wrong and nobody ever made a complaint but they always say they have the right to inspect us whenever they want.

But here is an organization that is taking deposits which to me is clearly against the law but they are saying they are powerless to inspect it !
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9 Aug 2012
News / Amber Gold and other Poland's suspicious institutions [139]

In 1990s Swiss frank mortgage was a much better option than PLN. Ziemowit explained it well

Yes and in 2008 or 2009 then returns on gold probably were much higher than returns on bank interest, shares, bonds, property or any other asset class. Coincidentally the same time these gold deposit shysters entered the market.

The principle is exactly the same - people who signed swiss frank mortgages thought they were able to circumvent economic reality but over a 25 year period were sure to come unstuck. By the way there was an interesting article in last weeks GW that some banks were calling people who had more expensive swiss frank mortgages and asking them to provide extra collateral.

I havent seen the statistics showing pln mortgages to be more underwater than swiss ones - where was that published.
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9 Aug 2012
News / Amber Gold and other Poland's suspicious institutions [139]

Easy for us to feel smug but how many folk here have got Swiss Frank mortgages based on the promises of lower interest rates. It's equally barmy, affects millions, the losses are far more than most of amber golds pensioners have and and I'm surprised at the number of qualified people, even accountants and bankers that went for it.
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24 Jul 2012
Law / Accounting in Poland, business venture [44]

Actually no idea - one is definitely way over 40 but the rest between 20 and 40. I would put their average age around 30.
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24 Jul 2012
Law / Accounting in Poland, business venture [44]

You dont need masters staff to do that work -

my own accounting team is

- 3 qualified - all paid PLN 10k plus
- 4 others with degrees - mostly doing treasury/forex type things - paid 4-8k
- 5 interns (paid about 2000 per month but you could get them for a bit less)
- 7 with only secondary education but most who have been on a bookkeepers course (which I think is a few months). These are the people that do most of the actual booking and those are the people I think you can get for less than 3k

15 women. Occasionally some of them get pregnant but thats life and no babies eventually means no customers for anyone. Of the others I would say that if you can provide flexible time for people with kids and are understandng when their kids are sick you would probably get people willing to work for a few hundred zlots left.

szczecin would be cheapest place of the ones you mentioned also for office space etc. I think you might find it more difficult to find people at the higher competency level however.

anyway, thats enough free advice ! good luck with your venture
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23 Jul 2012
Law / Accounting in Poland, business venture [44]

I think I answered this a few months ago - well done for pressing on with your case. If you can dig out what I wrote before it still applies with a few changes - mostly in your favour

- rates are going down for accounting clerks. In my experience they have fallen 5-10% over the past year and you would get people starting at around 2.700 (though with limited language skills). Reason is that shared service centres now recognized as being boring work and also less entry of shared service centres in past year or so.

- unemployment among young people is going up quite rapidly in most big towns and you would be surprized at the rates in some big towns. In Gdansk and Wroclaw overall unemployment now at 7%+ (I havent bothered to check the exact figures in case some pedant finds its 6,5%).

You would probably be better off with India or South Africa though - less language problems, lower wages, better accounting traditions and in the case of India you can shorten your deadlines by them working during the European night.
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19 Jul 2012
Life / Is it McPoland? [63]

you are 100% right about the weight but I think its partly down to more cars, longer work days. Not just food.

I dont think its easier to get buns and cheese from a corner shop - you need a knife, you dont get any plate and napkins, no hot drinks, nowhere to sit (and sitting on benches outside in Poland in a suit tends to make you the target of every beggar in a 1km radius), nowhere to go to the bathroom. Add to that the fact that you will have to queue behind a bunch of people buying lottery tix, that the guy will not have any change for your 20 zloty note and the buns are normally hard by late morning.

I honestly think that in most Polish towns then the golden arches is the most reliable place to get something quick to eat. As someone else said, just make sure its once a week, dont supersize your fries and you will probably not die.
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19 Jul 2012
Life / Is it McPoland? [63]

No they don't but if they did I actually think it would come in as one of the healthier quick eating options in polish towns. Choice is limited to vile kebabs, poor quality pizza and very greasy polish food. coffee shops cost huge amounts here - more than 5 euro for a weak coffee and a half filled sandwich.

Things are changing - more and more sandwich bars, salad bars etc but never close to offices.
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17 Jul 2012
Travel / OLT Jetair (flight to Wroclaw) [38]

I think the worst that could happen is that they may go bust between you booking and getting on the plane, but if its only a case of losing a few hundred zloty then may as well go for it. Same happened with Air Polonia a few years back.

I booked a few weeks ago but missed my flight so still havent tested them.

But I'm very nervous about safety - its not really a credible pricing structure !

Still it will hopefully make the trains and lot think about their pricing - the train is getting really expensive (or rather poor value for money). Of the last 20 intercity I have been on 14 have been late - up until recently train was much more reliable. And the stations are just horrible.