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Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]
PiS will win 30% of the vote. Where the other 70% goes, who knows - but I don't believe that Kukiz can win against an organised PO/SLD/PSL campaign. It's easy to get votes as a one-man candidate, but it's much harder to translate it into electoral success in parliamentary elections.
Spot on.
Many outsiders (and even some Poles) here wouldn't necessarily know about it or if they're a PiS supporter want to acknowledge it (in fact they'd probably get in a typical PiS flap at the very suggestion), SLD and PiS are much closer on a local party (and business) level than either party would care to admit. It isn't unimaginable that they'd strike a deal to keep their rival out.
Easy to forget also the PiS PO (unfortunate name) coalition project that never happened in the end.
And yes, PSL always do better in elections than in surveys.