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Posts by Polsyr  

Joined: 19 Sep 2011 / Male ♂
Last Post: 10 Dec 2015
Threads: Total: 6 / In This Archive: 6
Posts: Total: 758 / In This Archive: 566
From: Warsaw, Poland
Speaks Polish?: Yes
Interests: Mechanics

Displayed posts: 572 / page 16 of 20
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Polsyr   
15 Jul 2013
Life / Immigration in Poland and being surrounded by a monoculture? [134]

What happens when those people become stable and the numbers start going down again?

There are no perfect solutions, that's for sure. Every solution comes with compromises.

Some countries count on their ability to recruit skilled migrant workers (like the US or Canada) and this has practically become an essential part of their economic and social development.

Would this work for Poland? Hard to say. Poland's economy is growing, and the demand for skilled workers will increase with time. I have been trying to recruit a mechanical engineer (fresh graduate) for MONTHS. I am offering a very good salary for a fresh grad... The first person I gave an offer to, accepted an offer from a UK based company for about 40% less net income because it is a huge well known company, and the second guy decided to go spend a year in India to "find himself" instead of finding a job. Currently, I gave up on recruiting for my vacancy. Believe me, this did not come out of nothing. Perhaps trying to attract some of the foreign graduates of Polish universities wouldn't be such a bad idea - at some point in time and using appropriate selection criteria.
Polsyr   
15 Jul 2013
Life / Immigration in Poland and being surrounded by a monoculture? [134]

Foreigner;

I am all for good debate. But you said to someone that they are wrong (offering no reason) and expressed a different opinion (without supporting it). All I did was to ask you why you thought they were wrong, and to provide examples... It seemed like you took offense to that. In my last reply, I said to sustain population, not to expand it.

Let's say there is a misunderstanding here and start again.

What do you actually think of this subject?
Polsyr   
15 Jul 2013
Life / Immigration in Poland and being surrounded by a monoculture? [134]

Well I didn't make any claims contrary to your little research project so you're arguing against your own projections based on very few things I wrote.

Where did I make projections and then argue against them?

You said that there is no need for immigration but instead there should be fair opportunities at home (in order to encourage people to have more children). Unless you were talking about something else, out of context, and didn't clarify.

Sonickewl: immigration in my opinion is the perfect solution to make up for the decrease in the population of Poland
Your opinion is wrong.
Family friendly economic policies and fair opportunities at home for Poles would do that better.

I asked you for examples, you asked ME to provide examples instead to a point that YOU had proposed.

Speaking of

G20 countries or countries in which people ALREADY enjoy a high-standard of living.

These are countries where people have some of the lowest birthrates in the world, which further proves that simply better economic conditions are not likely to increase the birth rates.

Examples (Source: UN 2009)
Germany 1.41
Canada 1.53
Brazil 1.74
UK 1.82
Norway 1.85
France 1.89
US 2.05

As you see above, none of these countries enjoy a birth rates high enough to sustain the population and growth without resorting to brining in immigrants to fill the gap.

Birth rate in Poland: 1.23-1.38 depending on the source. This is FAR below the 2.1 necessary to sustain the population. Changes in policy will take decades to impact birthrates, and even then, I cannot imagine what sort of policy change can bring on a sufficient improvement in birthrates to bring it from 1.38 to 2.1.

P.S. I need a lot of things in life. Your attention is most certainly not one of them.
Polsyr   
15 Jul 2013
Life / Immigration in Poland and being surrounded by a monoculture? [134]

If you can't come up with any ideas then I doubt we have much to discuss anyhow

Well, you brought it up, so why are you asking me to back up your claim? You should back up your claim with something. Anything...

I will argue against your claim (regardless of what I actually believe), and say that increasing income as a result of increased opportunity (especially for women) leads to a DECREASE in the number of children per household, and I will back up my claim with actual examples of research done on this subject in different parts of the world. Please see below not 1 or 2 example, but TEN examples that support my point:

1. Ehrlich and Kim 2007 (International): 1% increase in GDP per capita was found to decrease fertility by 0.17-0.31%.
2. Heckman and Walker 1990 (Sweden): 1% increase in female wages leads to 0.55% decrease in the number of children at the age of 40.
3. Merrigan and St.-Pierre 1998 (Canada): 12.% increase in female wages leads to 6.5-15.6% decrease in number of children at the age of 40.
4. Butz and Ward 1979 (USA): 1% increase in female hourly wages leads to 1.59-1.85 decrease in total fertility rate.
5. Kackson 1995 (Australia): 1% increase in female hourly wages leads to 1.45% decrease in total fertility rate.
6. McNown and Ridao and Cristobal 2004 (Canada): 1% increase in female wages leads to 2.7% drop in total fertility rate.
7. Ronsen 2004 (Norway and Finland): Women's wages were found to have a negative and significant effect on the probability of having a first and a second child.

8. Risse 2006 (Australia): Women's wages were found to have a negative and significant effect on the probability of having fallen pregnant in the previous year.

9. Barmby and Sigano 1990 (UK): Increasing women's wages relative to men has a negative impact on fertility.
10. Ermisch 1998 (UK): 35% increase in women's wages relative to men leads to a reduction in family size of 0.3 children.
Polsyr   
11 Jul 2013
Law / Opening "Budke Gastronomiczna" [37]

= 4400 - 19% taxes= 3500MINUS 1 worker 2000zl

Correct me if I am wrong, but the salaries your business pays should be deducted from your gross revenue before tax, not net revenue after tax (unless you are paying your employees cash under the table)...

So to correct:
4400 - 2000 (salary of employee) = 2400
Less 19% tax = 1900 (actually 1944).
So you pay around PLN 400 extra for declaring your tax on the wrong amount.

Another thing you should know, if a prepared food item costs you 50% of its retail price just in raw material, then you are not on top of your game. Cost of raw material in the restaurant industry (particularly in fast food) should not exceed 25% of the retail price (and in some cases, can be as low as 10%).

For example, a chicken kebab:
Chicken 100g: 2.00 (for ready skinless chicken breast bought retail, so it can be reduced by buying whole sale and more so by buying whole chicken and deboning it yourself)

Flat Bread: 0.15 (can be reduced by half if you bake your own bread)
Veggies: 0.15
Seasoning: 0.15 (sauce, spices etc.)
Wrapper: 0.05
Total: PLN 2.50

However, I think your estimate of energy cost is a bit conservative. With the grill fired up several hours a day, energy may very well be your highest overhead.
Polsyr   
10 Jul 2013
Life / Immigration in Poland and being surrounded by a monoculture? [134]

I don't see being white as anything important. Why should I care about the colour of mine or somebody's else skin? I don't see any race problem- I can only see society's problems with some citizens. Period. If someone comes here legaly I have no problem with it. No matter what country he comes from.

That is because you are a normal, reasonable person.

In some cases, people that have no credible achievements in life tend to puff themselves up with things that they were born with, such as ethnicity, skin color and citizenship, or with achievements of other persons, like hypothetical distant ancestors or people of similar ethnicity and skin color etc.

People like that are impossible to reason with because their beliefs are not based on reason.

A typical example would be a male in his 20s, living with his parents, probably barely made it through high school or didn't even make it, unemployed or doing a job that he thinks he is too good for, and spends a considerable amount of time complaining about his situation directly and indirectly to people that he knows as well as people that he doesn't know, in person and online (like web forums, blogs, social networking sites etc.) He is arrogant, cocky and a know-it-all. He invariably blames people of other ethnicities for stealing potential opportunities from him, and blames the government for not protecting him from this, despite the fact that he makes no effort to win any opportunities and expects the government to hand them to him on a silver platter based on nothing but his belief that he is entitled to them based on nothing but his ethnic origin (or the achievements of other people that he thinks he is related to).

He is likely to hang out with like-minded individuals (i.e. losers). They probably dress different from their peers and act in a sociopathic manner (spit in public, swear a lot, rude by default etc.) Almost certainly some of them have committed offenses as juveniles or adults, ranging from vandalism to assault and robbery. Almost certainly some of them are substance dependent (smokers and/or alcoholics and/or drug addicts).

Unless I am completely wrong and they have PhD's from top academies and they have super careers at the world's top corporations... Which I doubt.
Polsyr   
28 Jun 2013
Law / Getting married in Poland (documentation, church) [42]

My partner did say a lot of poles hire a fire station hall to have the after party?? However we are going to a polish wedding in September that's going to be in a palace

Depending on how much you want to spend... You can spend around PLN 300-400 per person and have your wedding reception at a 5-Star hotel in central Warsaw (the number are highly variable).

A friend of mine had his wedding in Częstochowa and paid PLN 150 per person for a restaurant that he hired for the occasion, plus he bought his own alcohol. All in all, he ended up spending approximately PLN 250 per person for a 2 day party. The bride's parents insisted on paying for at least half the cost. The same thing happened with me, my wife's parents paid a huge part of the cost.
Polsyr   
28 Jun 2013
Law / Getting married in Poland (documentation, church) [42]

my husband is not Catholic (although Christian).

Like I said, every priest will ask for different things, and in light of our personal circumstance, we were not inclined to argue with the priest.

Also your husband is Christian. I am not, and that changes things considerably.

Another occasion where our priest insisted on "Catholic witnesses" was during the baptism of our son. He even refused to allow my wife's sister to be a godmother because she has been divorced and remarried. Again, maybe another priest might bargain, maybe another couple might be inclined to argue, but we were not.

The only thing that stands absolutely true, is that the original poster needs to ask the actual priest in the church where she intends to get married.
Polsyr   
26 Jun 2013
Law / Getting married in Poland (documentation, church) [42]

As far as I'm aware, this isn't an obligation anymore.

What I said is based on my own experience and my own priest. And like I said, different priests ask for different things and may or may not bargain.

However, as far as I know, no priest will waive the requirement for the declarations I mentioned if the other partner is not Christian all together.

We chose to pay one day in advance to talk in advance to the organ player (we made a special request) and notify the priest that we are changing one of the witnesses so we didn't want to surprise him the next day.
Polsyr   
26 Jun 2013
Law / Getting married in Poland (documentation, church) [42]

I am a non-Catholic person that married a Catholic person in a Catholic church in Poland.

Like others said before, it entirely depends on the individual priest that will marry you. We heard VERY different answers from different priests. We even heard 3 different answers from 3 priests in the same church. One of them declined to marry us all together, the second one had a lot of conditions, the third one (who actually married us) asked for the things listed below.

But in general, most agree on the following requirements:

- You (the non-Catholic person) need to bring some form of proof that you are single from a Catholic church in your place of residence. This was not possible in our case, so the priest demanded that I bring 2 witnesses that have known me for at least 10 years to testify that I am not married to another person. He also asked for our civil marriage certificate (we had our civil marriage 3 years before) as additional proof that I am not married to someone else.

- The Catholic partner must undergo premarital training/workshop/preparation (whatever you want to call it) at some Catholic church. This is usually a one or two day workshop.

- The Catholic partner must present his/her baptism certificate and marriage license issued from their Catholic church.

- The non-Catholic partner must sign a declaration saying that they will allow the Catholic partner to practice their faith freely without interference, and one more saying they agree to have their children baptized at the Catholic church.

In general, you will need to visit the priest (with your Polish speaking partner) and talk to him at least a year in advance. The priest will organize the church booking and the organ player at the mutually agreed date.

On the day before the wedding, you need to go see your priest and make a donation (average going rate where we live is PLN 500) and also pay for the organ player (average here PLN 200). It varies depending on the size and location of the church. I heard of people paying only 300 and people paying 1000. Also, immediately prior to the wedding, you need to go see your priest with the witnesses (bride's maid/best man - they must both be Catholic) and sign the paperwork, and handover your wedding bands to the priest. He will give them back to you towards the end of the ceremony.

I recommend that you practice your wedding vows in Polish. I said my vows in Polish and my partner and her family really appreciated that I made the effort to learn.

Good luck. Feel free to ask me if you have more questions.
Polsyr   
8 Jun 2013
News / Reorganization of Polish special forces. Strong deterrence forces needed in Poland? [19]

I don't know whether NATO has a mechanism for conflict resolution between its members or not.

In the big picture, NATO enforces the will of the US. I doubt the US would want to get involved in this (directly or explicitly) but at the same time, I doubt they would side with Turkey (or any "Eastern" country) against traditional (European) allies.

By the way, neither Greece nor Bulgaria is powerful enough (in an economical, political, military and geopolitical sense) to stop Turkey if Turkey decided to look west. The first country that CAN challenge Turkey to the west is Poland, but without a clear technological advantage (which is what I believe Poland should invest into), Poland cannot win such a conflict without help - help that others may or may not be willing to give.

Regardless of how you look at it, the people at the Kremlin will be having a very good day when that conflict starts (if and when it starts).
Polsyr   
8 Jun 2013
News / Reorganization of Polish special forces. Strong deterrence forces needed in Poland? [19]

Clairvoyant, are you?

Nope, but conflicts need reasons to happen (where there is smoke, there is a fire).

I believe the next direct confrontation Poland will get into is going to be with Turkey, when Turkey attempts to spread her influence in Europe and ultimately clashes with Poland's interests.

My belief is based on history having the habit of repeating itself. It is also based on the current pattern of behavior of both nations.
Polsyr   
8 Jun 2013
News / Reorganization of Polish special forces. Strong deterrence forces needed in Poland? [19]

F22 are nice but again too expensive.

As far as I know: F22 production ended already, and the platform was designed exclusively for the US Air Force. It was not sold to any other country and they don't plan on selling it. Perhaps they might pass them onto an ally once they have newer alternatives, however, the US is currently in a phase of cutting down on military spending, so I doubt this will happen anytime soon.

Also, I don't know what is the point of spending a fortune on defense when other areas are badly in need of funding, like infrastructure and health care for example. Improve the road and transportation network and the economy will improve, in my opinion, enough to offset the investment in infrastructure and even pay for future defense plans. Invest in the energy sector and the industry will boom. Invest in education, and Poland will locally develop the technology needed to build her own strategic and tactical defenses instead of handing over wads of tax payers' money to America or Russia, which only serves to widen the gap both technologically and economically.

The next time Poland will be directly involved in a military conflict will probably be at least 20 years away. By then, any weapons purchased now will become obsolete or near obsolete anyway. Until then, the focus should be on developing technology and on quality instead of quantity. One well trained pilot in an older but will maintained and modernized aircraft is more effective than 3 under-trained pilots in brand new models.
Polsyr   
3 Jun 2013
Work / English speaking tradesmen in Poland [8]

I would like to know how things turn out for you.

I heard from a few people that it is difficult to find an honest, reliable tradesman in Poland. I think that is a global problem.

If you are honest and hard working, and if you can communicate in Polish, I don't see why you wouldn't succeed. All you need to do is some networking to find clients and decent suppliers that won't rip you off.

Anyone else cares to add something?
Polsyr   
15 May 2013
Law / Visa interview next month and I was rejected before; Accepted at the Jagiellonian university [13]

Ok...

Reason # 1 is not applicable when you apply for a visa to go study for longer than 3 months, because you are required to apply for a residence permit once you arrive in Poland in this case.

Reason # 2 is more serious. You will need to (minimum) show them the original letter of acceptance from the university.

Did you show them a letter of acceptance last time you applied?
Polsyr   
14 May 2013
Travel / Coming to Poland with a pet :) [47]

Does anyone have an up-to-date answer to this question? The pets in question are two cats...

Nobody knows?
Polsyr   
13 May 2013
Law / Visa interview next month and I was rejected before; Accepted at the Jagiellonian university [13]

What documents did they ask for?

Did they explain to you why they rejected your previous application? Did you do anything to correct that?

They might ask you to show evidence that you have enough funds to get by during the course of your studies (for example a bank statement). In addition to paying tuition fees, you will need PLN 1,000-2,000 per month to pay for accommodation, food, transportation, clothing etc, depending on your life style. If we take an average of PLN 1,500 per month, this is equal to PLN 18,000 per year, or roughly USD 6,000 per year. This is the minimum amount you should have in your account (in my opinion.)
Polsyr   
12 May 2013
Language / Polski. Bez Problemu! - Polish language course (levels 1,2,3) - reviews and comments. [13]

I don't remember how long it took, but for sure not more than 6 months.

One of the reasons I stopped and started taking lessons is because I needed to practice conversation with a professional (who can talk to me about my mistakes, and how to correct them).

A good teacher can tell you how to pronounce some of the more difficult words and break things down in a way that a book simply can't.
Polsyr   
5 May 2013
Life / Biomass boilers/heaters in Poland [12]

Warszawski,

Have you done a heat load calculation? Is this a new home or a retrofit? How much space you have in your boiler room (for both boiler and fuel)? Tell me more about this project. Feel free to send me a message with details.

I am not yet familiar with the applicable calculations in Poland, but I can tell you, if your house was in Chicago, and we follow the US Department of Energy 2011 guidelines, and assuming that this is a NEW HOME, with modern insulation and construction technique, then your heating load will be 21kW (baseline which is too idealistic) and 26kW (with some reasonable losses).

I have seen some people in Poland blindly assume 100 W per square meter for retrofit on insulated homes, and even more for older buildings. If you follow this rule, you're looking at 35kW+

And if you let the boiler salesman size the boiler for you, you will end up with a 40-50kW boiler at least... (I am a boiler salesman, but the boilers I offer start at 3MW and go up to 285MW).

If you stick to 35kW (which in my opinion is plenty) then you have some interesting choices. If it was MY home, I would go for ORLAŃSKI model ORLIGNO 50 with 35kW. It is a classic cast iron boiler and can be fired on coal, wood, wood shavings, briquettes, sawdust and coke so this gives many fuel choices. They even supply this boiler with a set of cleaning tools. The drawback is that you have to manually empty a potentially heavy ashtray. However, this looks like a simple (and therefore reliable) solution. Their website is orlanski dot pl.

Of course, there are other choices like Viadrus (which I am not familiar with, but the name seems to be associated with quality). Their website is viadrus dot com dot pl.

Whatever you decide, try to buy a local product so you have easy access to service and parts. There are plenty of good boilers made in Poland. And don't assume that an "international" brand is better than local brands by default.

So Warszawski, did you get a boiler already?
Polsyr   
3 May 2013
Life / Biomass boilers/heaters in Poland [12]

I sell and service boilers for a living, however my specialty is large (industrial) steam boilers (up to 250,000 kg/hr of steam for a factory packaged boiler, and double that for a field assembled boiler). Plus energy recovery and the full boiler room package.

But I also worked on smaller boilers for a few years.

I entirely agree with what prawda said. For home, convenience and ease of use, combined with low operating costs are important. You also want it simple and reliable. Plus the advice about cast iron vs. welded steel sheet is right on the money. But be aware, cast iron construction tends to be heavier, and this is something to keep in mind, particularly if you are doing a retrofit.