15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon

Ooops, my bad. I just put 2 and 2 together and came up with the wrong answer; 4? It's only because MBiernat's profile has his website as www dot clarituslux dot com that I drew the conclusion that he is one and the same as clarituslux. Or maybe it was all the same back-slapping gibberish going on between a number of different guest accounts.


I don't know why they let losers like this bring down the forum. In the past I had actually contemplated doing a Gold Membership, but why blow $25 on a forum that has been hijacked by nutters and charlatans. Supposedly "By making a contribution you will also help to keep this website annoying ad-free! "

Yeah, ok.

The 15 reasons are still nowhere to be found?

... and while the Polish real estate market is heading for a crash, British house prices record first rise in 19 months in October this year with the average house price now at £162,038, still 13 per cent lower than their October 2007 peak of £186,044 ...

So the policy of the real estate agents is to kill and cut the right to opinion and arguments to anyone who doesnt say that prices in realestate will rise forever?

So it should be censored, just like back to comunism, if any other users are telling people to pay attention at the high, unsustainable huge prices of the real estate in Poland,

where developers have profits margins of over +200%

Hi Claritaslux,

I have been involved in the Polish real estate market for 7 years, both investing and developing brownfield sites.

Unfortunately I am still a little green behind the ears ( lacking in expertise ) and would love your help. You see the problem is I am still paying up to 4000zl per meter for construction costs ( luxury end of market ) and it is taking me approx 24 months to complete.

I reckon with your friends that can build apartment blocks in 3 months and do it for 1000zl/meter we would surely conquer the market.

WHAT AN IDIOT!!

green behind the ears alright, green and wet at that, no one is going to buy at that price sorry, no matter what trolls are on this forum, the price of real estate is by far overpriced.

Yes, exactly. And here only real estate agents post, plus developers, because they need to keep the market high and finish selling all their overpriced apartments

whilst I agree, you may also include banks who are keen to set up somebody to a life of debt and be at its mercy...people with high debts don't become free people as they stress out about repayments in a climate of job insecurity etc

Popw, please don't mind asking but who are you, please declare your hand.

* Claritaslux
* Popw

wrote:

I am a real estate market analyst, quite lazy to create an account and remember a new password, but I am analyzing a lot of real estate markets all over European Union and the world.

Polish real estate market is overpriced and currently in bubble

Clear facts should be discussed, clear facts as:

1.falling down in number of citizens

2.who affords to pay 6-15 000 pln/sq.m.??

3.who will buy at these absurd high prices, when the building cost is only 1000 - 1500 pln/sq.m.?

House Hunting in ... Krakow, Poland nytimes.com/2009/11/04/greathomesanddestinations/04gh-househunting.html

A DUPLEX APARTMENT IN KRAKOW'S CITY CENTER 1.4 MILLION POLISH ZLOTY ($478,000).

This 130-square-meter (1,399-square-foot) duplex apartment is in a complex of tenement buildings that are about 100 years old.

Yes for sure, considering that Krakow is a freezing place 8 months per year, that the pyramid of huge prices was based just on speculation, the bubble will explode very soon.

You mean how very soon? (a) within a month; (b) 1 to 3 months; (c) 3 to 9 months; (d) 9 to 24 months; (e) over 24 months.

Will you tell us kindly your prediction, please?

You back and agreeing with yourself again.

Apart from spamming your website, what is your ocupation because you sure as heck don't have anything to do with the real estate market.

Average price for Kraków 7345PLN per metre square, that is up 0,6% last September and down 12,6% from the peak year.
It is in Polish (Raport z rynku nieruchomosci 10_2009.pdf)


Strange thing about that article is it is supposed to be about houses and talks about luxury apartments.


So apart from agreeing with yourself and spamming your own website have you ANY impartial links or proof of your Armageddon speculations?



Next months? 1.5 years?
But you are an american that has been here since 2004, so you have seen it all right?

It is 7,391 PLN, up 0,6% from 7,345 on the previous month, to be precise.

Than you for this source. Anyway, it proves that Kraków was hit the worst over the last year, with the highest slump of prices in Poland (-12,6%). But may we call that a crash? In some areas (Białystok, Katowice) prices are even up on the previous year by 1,4-2,2% (4,000 - 4,500 PLN at present). May we call them less freezy than Kraków? I don't think so, Białystok is certainly the coldest voivodship capital in Poland.

Youve just exactly copied what SeanBM wrote, why?


What a crock of shite, what the hell has cold weather got to do with anything. You could state the opposite for hot climates, Dubai for example. Many people my self included prefer nice warm summers and freezing winters.

This was between September and October and I did not want to confuse people but I should have written that.


That is just a lie now, many people on this forum have been to Krakow and not just in the four months that are thawed out :)

Missing the Californian sunshine?


No and there were foreigners who remortgaged there houses bought over here and got stung at home and therefore stopped buying.
I personally think the slight drop is good for Poland, it stopped the prices from becoming ridiculous like in Ireland and Lithuania, they are really suffering now, where prices have halved in some areas.


North West Poland is still very underdeveloped, I think when the infrastructure goes in, it will do a lot better.
Weather and freezing has nothing to do with anything, Norway, Sweden, Finland are all further North and much colder than here, so what?


When you're good you're good :)

How come is it IMPARTIAL what you posted SeanBM, when it is "study" made by a REAL ESTATE AGENCY ? :)))))

Just wanted to correct his figure a little bit (adding "to be exact"). I thanked him for that source and next I started to explore his source a little further ...


You are addressing these words to me, whereas in fact I was mocking the idea of Claritaslux who persistently links the property prices in Kraków to it being a freezing place ...

---------------

I have assumed people on this forum are clever ...

Open finance are not a real estate agency.
And your opinions are not backed up by anything, you do not even work in the real estate sector.


Assume: makes an 'Ass' out of 'u' and 'me' :)



Just stop it, it is bad enough you know little about the real estate market and just insulting that you have different accounts to agree with yourself and defend your bogus claims.

I think everybody knows that for buying real estate you need to have DEMAND.

Demand comes from people who usually pay with their wages, the credit from the bank.

For an average wage of 2000 zlotych/month, bank allows you maximum 800 zl/month
of payment for your mortgage.

800 zl/month for a credit of 20 years, equals 800 x 12 = 9600 zl / month equal
maximum 200 000 zl (rounded in plus) for an apartment in Krakow

So that is the correct market price for a 2-3 rooms apartment (60-100 sq.m.) in Krakow:
200 000 zl

Right now there are thousands of apartments for sale at abrud prices, and nobody is buying...

just one example please, just one..

Claritaslux started this thread on the 28th October.

Polsky started a similar thread in the "Krakow Post" on 28th October stating that prices of flats would fall by 1000%.

What is this persons agenda?...surely they cannot enjoy being thought of as fools and idiots?

What is the deal with polish estate agents I went in to a big estate agent company with huge reception, beautiful offices overlooking the city, I had money to buy and was interested in a property on their books, The estate agent was the most arrogant man I had ever come across he refused to let me do a viewing, but I persisted in insisting that I was interest in the end he snarled at me that he did a foreigner to buy it. It was a good deal and he wanted a polish person to have it I said yes but my husband is polish so it will also be owned by a pole anyway he practically threw me out of his offices.

So maybe its the coldness of some of the estate agents that might be harming the market

w w w .property-krakow.com/properties/show/id/890

21 491 PLN/sq.m. and it's not even in Rynek Glowny !!!

w w w .property-krakow.com/properties/show/id/386

16 667 PLN/sq.m.

Check other websites online, more than 450,000 apartments are for sale,
waiting and waiting and waiting...

This is like talking to a child.
Yes the average wage, very good.
And all these people on the average wage should be living in the Wawel castle, no doubt?

Nobody in any country lives in the center of one of the biggest cities, especially a major tourist destination like Krakow, on an average wage.

Do you think Irish, English or whoever are able to afford an apartment in the centre of Cork, Birmingham etc...?


I have actually come across these fools myself, it is a wonder how they do business at all.
I don't think the market is that harmed but fools like those particular estate agencies.
But you are right, it is amazing sometimes.

It is interesting that some people do not know even to apply the basics of mathematics, statistics or logical rational thinking, when buying an apartment.

And they see afterwards that they paid some 100 000 zl or 150 000 zl more than it was worth it :))

Quick correction,
It is interesting that some people do not know even "how" to apply the basics of mathematics, statistics or logical rational thinking, when buying an apartment.

Is this you again Popw? this game of yours is tedious.
Every time I refute your bogus claims you counter me by ignoring me, signing in with another user name and generally disagreeing with me.
You have obviously no knowledge of the real estate market and I am not going to teach you.
So what really happened?, you came here to Krakow in 2004 from California and did not buy a property and have watched as prices have risen but did not buy anything? Come on out with it, it is time for some transparency on your behalf.


That is ridiculously expensive, fair enough but you will find ridiculously priced apartments in every major city. The thing is, will anyone buy them?

there is no theory of conspiracy. The prices will fall down for sure. There are thousands of logical and rational arguments for it, plus demand and supply and level of financing afforded to be offered by the banks.

Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.

Polsky..........you are the same person who has been "spamming" Polish Forums for the past week. You make unsubstantiated comments in order to provoke a response. Get a life.

posted by Avalon on Nov.06.2009

I posted just one message - this message. With clear arguments and study of the real estate markets. And almost every real estate expert agress with this. Few of the many arguments: I think everybody knows that for buying real estate you need to have DEMAND. RIght now there is just OVERSUPPLY from the 3-4 million poles working aborad, who never plan to return. Demand comes from people who usually pay with their wages, the credit from the bank. For an average wage of 2000 zlotych/month, bank allows you maximum 800 zl/month of payment for your mortgage. 800 zl/month for a credit of 20 years, equals 800 x 12 = 9600 zl / year equals maximum 200 000 zl (rounded in plus) for an apartment in Krakow. So that is the correct market price for a 2-3 rooms apartment (60-100 sq.m.) in Krakow: 200 000 zl Right now there are thousands of apartments for sale at absurd prices, and nobody is buying... (PS it seems that the only spammer is Avalon here)

posted by polsky on Nov.06.2009