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15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon


Wroclaw Boy  
9 Dec 2009 /  #181
Again, to those on this forum, please don't equate the term "Polish Real Estate" with only 'flats'.

Exactly if i achieved 500 PLN / m2 for some of my properties id be laughiung all the way to the Porsche dealership. For agricultural land we have what 3 PLN / m2 or £0.66, none farmland less..
scorpio 20 | 188  
9 Dec 2009 /  #182
For agricultural land we have what 3 PLN / m2 or £0.66

Ok, that's a fair price for pure, empty agricultural land (about 30,000 PLN per hectare). Keep in mind, that's empty arable land with nothing on it. When you start to price arable land which contains a small wooden home, or brick stable, or a wooden barn on it, that totally changes the way you value that per m2 land - it then ranges anywhere between 75,000 PLN to 150,000 PLN per hectare for the reason being you now have a zoned farm plot within and / or adjacent to your agricultural land, which is perfect for renovating or tearing down the old farm house and building a home which replicates the same area on the original foundation. Everyone wants a house or other building on a large plot or arable land, instead of a home on a small 0.20 hectare piece. I've done exactly that, purchased an empty wooden farm house, barn shell, all with electricity and water, on land / forest exceeding 5 hectares and 2 hectares respectively. For the former, I tore down the old wooden house, rebuilt a new brick house consisting of the same area in m2, on a new foundation which was constructed on the same location as the log home's foundation, without any cost of a plan or architect. The same was done with my barn, which is now brick as well. Such properties are rarely ever mentioned here on Polish Forums when discussing the 'Polish Real Estate' market. It's always the same - flats, flats, and flats.

Eventually, Polish agricultural land will reach a fair equilibrium price with that of Western European farms. That means, the price will only go up until a near equilibrium is reached. One major reason is that foreigners still need permission from the Polish interior ministry to purchase farmland and farms in Poland. Once this law is abolished around 2012, you will see demand increase for agricultural land from a new bunch of people...foreigners. That will only bode well for those holding agricultural properties in Poland.

As far as flats in Poland go, there isn't much good news as of now.
Pipi Langstrmph  
9 Dec 2009 /  #183
Just had my Polish real estate (over 10 hectares of mostly forest, including some arable farmland, two farms.

If put on the market today how long would you estimate it would take you to sell at that price?
bolek 6 | 330  
9 Dec 2009 /  #184
thats a good point, a lot of Poles discuss their luck at the local watering hole and as the vodka starts flowing faster so does the price of Real Estate, reminds me when I was collecting stamps, the price in the catalogue and what I was offered were like chalk and cheese. Scorpio congratulations on your windfall, but don't open the champers until you have the cash in your hot little hand. I've noticed a lot of properties over the 1 million zlote mark in the outer city area remain in sale for a long time.

I believe that real estate will be stable for the next couple of years, although properties in down town areas will increase.
Our friendly banks are telling us that properties will rise, they have to, the money to be made for offering loans are very lucrative, as was in the US which resulted in the current financial crisis.
scorpio 20 | 188  
10 Dec 2009 /  #185
If put on the market today how long would you estimate it would take you to sell at that price?

It wasn't my intention to give the impression that 'all' of my property holdings in Poland are going on the market for sale, because they are not. I happen to live on one of my farms, so forget about this one being for sale. I was only providing information on how valuable the property I had purchased 7 years ago has become. The 1,200,000 PLN estimate is at the low end. The thousands of thick birch trees in my forests alone (without the land they stand on) make up a nice portion of the total asset value. Then throw in a brand new brick home, a new brick barn that resembles more of a large house, lots of arable land, and then my second farm with three buildings...yes, everything can be easily sold, quite fast for that price.

Scorpio congratulations on your windfall, but don't open the champers until you have the cash in your hot little hand.

Again, it's not my intention to sell. I was only providing fair market value and making the point that 'Polish Real Estate' isn't only 'flats'. It's much more than that. It seems on these forums, the prime focus of 'Polish Real Estate' is only on flats and nothing more. I'm only introducing another segment of the property market in Poland to the readers. My mention of fair market value is not a prelude to selling my holdings. It's for informational purposes only.
bolek 6 | 330  
10 Dec 2009 /  #186
Allow me to say that it will also depend on how flush the government is with funds, when you hear that hospitals are only doing emergency operations due to lack of funds it makes you wonder, living in a country were hospitals are half closed is not a welcome prospect.
Avalon 4 | 1,068  
10 Dec 2009 /  #187
This is slightly off topic bolek but I will answer you anyway. Since the Labour party came into power some 12 years ago, they have pumped an EXTRA £100 billion into the Health Service and have achieved only a 5% improvement in service, overall. Some 5,000 people a year are still dying from infections caught during their stays in hospital. Many people are actually affraid to go into an NHS hospital.

Below are some quotes from todays English papers:-

"Despite the six-figure salaries, the UK has the worst survival rate from a stroke in the developed world, the report shows."

"Hospital patients endure longer stays and face bed shortages. Britons are also among the least likely to have access to a dentist".

"A summary of its findings, reported by the Daily Mail yesterday, revealed that British healthcare is little better than that of former Communist countries such as the Czech Republic".

"British cancer and heart attack victims are more likely to die than almost anywhere else in the developed world, despite Labour tripling health spending over the past decade".

I have found the Poish health system to be excellent, both clean and efficient. The access to good doctors is far superior to the UK, so, stop running your country down. I have experienced both systems and I know where I would rather be treated.
Wroclaw Boy  
10 Dec 2009 /  #188
I have found the Poish health system to be excellent, both clean and efficient.

Whilst i have no personal complaints about the polish hospital system ive recently had to lend money to a Polish relative to bribe Doctors for preferentual treatment. That is absolutely discusting, ive never known a Doctor to turn down a bribe, its almost as though they feel its there right.

Still waiting for those thousands of other ways to buy property Mark, I'll even settle for a couple.
Popw  
10 Dec 2009 /  #189
Our friendly banks are telling us that properties will rise, they have to, the money to be made for offering loans are very lucrative, as was in the US which resulted in the current financial crisis.

Banks live only by giving overinflated loans in Poland, so they always HAVE TO say bshyt about prices forever rising, so naive people can become salves to the banks...

The funny thing is that people think they own the apartment for which they pay 650 000 pln over 30 years time, while THE BANK OWNS THE APARTMENT (valued at 200 000 PLN) ALL THE TIME, and IF YOU PAY JUST 600 000 PLN and you dont have last 50 000 PLN

then YOU LOSE EVERYTHING BOTH the apartment which was never yours, and both the 600 000 PLN you paid so far like an idiot
ChrisPoland 2 | 123  
10 Dec 2009 /  #190
I'm starting to feel a lot better about my house/land purchase a couple of years ago after reading this thread. Like scorpio (but on a smaller scale), we bought a house and a barn on a hectare of farm land (worst and next to worst classification). We got permission from the dept of agriculture and as I mentioned in another post somewhere I am only partial owner of the buildings and have the right to the value of the land because I'm not Polish or even an EU citizen. However, the land (1 hectare farm land) was appraised at a value of 3000 zloty only. Good for me as a buyer back then. We have since then been slowly (very slowly) working on our house. Maybe we'll finish it someday...

Also like scorpio, I have no intention of selling but we like to speculate at what price it would fetch. Our neighbor's house has been for sale for a long time at an amazingly high price considering it is on a tiny piece of land in the middle of a village. I think some sellers have a problem with the balance of what they invested or how much it cost them to build vs the market price.

Also we have had more than once, people from outside of the area stop at our house and ask how much we want for it. I always tell them that it is not for sale but they press on, demanding a price. I give them a price that would allow me to buy a house in the city and then they always get mad and tell me that I'll never sell it with a price like that :)
Harry  
10 Dec 2009 /  #191
The funny thing is that people think they own the apartment for which they pay 650 000 pln over 30 years time

Now I see the problem: you don't know how a mortgage actually works!

I'd say "Keep throwing your money away renting a place, moron!" but let's face it: you live in your parents' house.
Popw  
10 Dec 2009 /  #192
Teach me Harry how a mortgage works in YOUR opinion.

Because in REALITY and FOR EVERYONE, a mortgage works exactly how I described in my posts above.

That's how banks make THOUSANDS OF BILLIONS EUROS PROFIT EACH MONTH !!!
Harry  
10 Dec 2009 /  #193
A mortgage secures a debt. If you can not repay the last 50,000zl of a mortgage, you sell the home, repay the 50,000 and then buy a smaller place. Moron.
ChrisPoland 2 | 123  
10 Dec 2009 /  #194
It's called equity one of my father's favorite words right after penalty interest.

PS Never borrow money from my dad ;)
Wroclaw Boy  
10 Dec 2009 /  #195
a mortgage works exactly how I described in my posts above.

That's how banks make THOUSANDS OF BILLIONS EUROS PROFIT EACH MONTH !!!

So are you witnessing bankers in the street screaming about house price rises in order to sell mortgages?

When i want a mortgage i approach the bank, ive already decided that i wish to apply for a mortgage. I dont go there for a market apparaisal, i only wish to obtain the loan specifics.

Still waiting for the thousands of ways to buy property other than mortgages.
Avalon 4 | 1,068  
10 Dec 2009 /  #196
Popw

That's how banks make THOUSANDS OF BILLIONS EUROS PROFIT EACH MONTH !!!

Do you have problems with numbers?.....you always seem to exaggerate every figure you give.
If the banks made "THOUSANDS OF BILLIONS EUROS PROFIT EACH MONTH", there never would have been a credit crises. I cannot believe how thick you are. Do they allow you out on your own?
Popw  
10 Dec 2009 /  #197
Banks are not screaming in the street.

They have millions-worth of FAKE ADVERTISING
everywhere - on TV, on posters everywhere... claiming they are your friends and they "HELP YOU" with everything... but they take from you 650 000 PLN after they lend you 200 000 PLN, and in the meantime, your property is down to just 80 000 PLN or less

Excellent deal, to pay 650 000 PLN for an apartment that will be 80 000 PLN or less ! ;)

Excellent deal made possible only with the "help" of these lovely banks ;)
scorpio 20 | 188  
10 Dec 2009 /  #198
I love this thread. It ranges from the incredulous to the hilarious. Keep in going. ;)
Avalon 4 | 1,068  
10 Dec 2009 /  #199
Popw

"but they take from you 650 000 PLN after they lend you 200 000 PLN, and in the meantime, your property is down to just 80 000 PLN or less"

Is this what happened to you?, if so you have my sympathy, never have I heard anyone with a story so sad, never have I known anyone with your problems, life seems to have been really cruel to you.

Now f/uck off and annoy somebody else.

PS. Is the flat for sale?, is so I will give you 60,000 PLN as according to mbeirnat, prices have crashed this week. Will a cheque be ok?
wildrover 98 | 4,451  
11 Dec 2009 /  #200
I just bought a luxury flat in the center of Lodz for thirty zloty...sold it the next day for 25.000.000 zloty....found out today , the land i bought for 10 zloty has ten trilion pounds worth of Nazi gold burried under it....but life goes on the same....
bolek 6 | 330  
11 Dec 2009 /  #201
I just hope when the vodka wears out, you don't give it another hammering, gods speed.
LG.. life is good
Wroclaw Boy  
11 Dec 2009 /  #202
Excellent deal, to pay 650 000 PLN for an apartment that will be 80 000 PLN or less ! ;)

Excellent deal made possible only with the "help" of these lovely banks ;)

If youve taken a mortgage and are in negative equity its your fault.

Did somebody put a gun to your head and force you to approach the lovely banks? I can assure you that the banking establishments are most worried about sub prime markets, do you think if they could forecast future property market downturns and thus the possible liquidity of their corporations they would lend so much? Man your dumn.
Harry  
11 Dec 2009 /  #203
Only a complete and utter moron would buy an appartment at PLN 200,000 and then have the value fall to 80,000 or less.

Oh, sorry, forgot who I was talking to!
bolek 6 | 330  
11 Dec 2009 /  #204
I have found the Poish health system to be excellent, both clean and efficient..

Take your point and agree 100%...
Wroclaw Boy  
12 Dec 2009 /  #205
they lend you 200 000 PLN, and in the meantime, your property is down to just 80 000 PLN or less

I cant see how that is possible unless you bought a property, which was worth 200,000 but was really worth 100,000 or you had a major fire with no insurance even though mortgage insurance is compulsary with many banks or you bought a property which collapsed or flooded or something. In any case all of the above would be the buyers fault yes.

I dont know of any properties that have reduced in value by more than 50% in Poland, youre talking out of youre ass again.
Popw  
12 Dec 2009 /  #206
I think everybody was referring to the prices who are dropping down!
Wroclaw Boy  
12 Dec 2009 /  #207
No im referring to your statement bought for 200,000 but now only worth 80,000, please explain.
Popw  
15 Dec 2009 /  #208
The situation is based regarding to the near future.

A small apartment for which you pay 200 000 PLN now,
will be worth it maximum 80 000 PLN in 1-3 years from now on.
SeanBM 35 | 5,808  
15 Dec 2009 /  #209
A small apartment for which you pay 200 000 PLN now,
will be worth it maximum 80 000 PLN in 1-3 years from now on.

You are completely off your head, you have proven your lack of understanding of the real estate sector and now you make absurd predictions.
Tell us who will win in boxing matches so we can all bet against your predictions and make a few quid.
Avalon 4 | 1,068  
15 Dec 2009 /  #210
14th December 2009, From Warsaw Business Journal by Adam Zdrodowski

Unfulfilled prophecies

The difficulty in predicting the future development of Poland's residential market is evidenced by how different the sector's current condition is compared to some of the more pessimistic scenarios envisaged last year.

The quarters following the onset of the global financial crisis may have been some of the most trying ones for the Polish residential market in many years, but as Kazimierz Kirejczyk, president of the management board of consulting firm Reas, pointed out last week at the Nowy Adres-organized Polish Residential Market conference in Warsaw the sector has still been spared much of the possible fallout from the crisis.

"Predictions made one year ago that prices would drop by from 30-50 percent, developers would go bankrupt en masse and large numbers of mortgage-holders would default on their payments have not come true," Mr Kirejczyk said.

He added that bankruptcies have in fact been relatively few in number and the decrease in prices, ranging from 10-30 percent depending on location and property standard, are moderate in comparison to those in some other CEE countries.

popw, when are you ever,actually, going to provide any facts to back up your idiotic statements.
Do you enjoy being thought of as a moron?

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