Sean no links but cold hard experiences, you may well be critical of people who forecast a market downturn, but you masquerade in doing the opposite, claiming prices will increase?
Prices of apartments in Krakow are collapsing further down in 2010-2011
No links, just as I thought.
You do not work in the real estate business at all, you told me that a while ago.
I am critical of your lack of understanding, yes.
How is it I am masquerading now?
You are just putting words into my mouth, you're now lying. Show me where I even once said prices will increase?
No links and false allegations, Bolek time for you to get over your disappointments.
You have been known to tell lies on this forum so you will have to excuse me if I ask you for the article from Gazeta Wyborcza, that you base your allegations for this thread on.
You do not work in the real estate business at all, you told me that a while ago.
you may well be critical of people who forecast a market downturn
I am critical of your lack of understanding, yes.
but you masquerade in doing the opposite, claiming prices will increase?
How is it I am masquerading now?
You are just putting words into my mouth, you're now lying. Show me where I even once said prices will increase?
No links and false allegations, Bolek time for you to get over your disappointments.
Gazeta Wyborcza
You have been known to tell lies on this forum so you will have to excuse me if I ask you for the article from Gazeta Wyborcza, that you base your allegations for this thread on.
No links and false allegations, Bolek time for you to get over your disappointments.
Whe your in Poland you have to graduate from the college of hard knocks, I've done so and now sharing my experiences
Special-Polak
17 Nov 2009 / #34
Search on Google:
" House Price Bubbles on the Major Polish Housing Markets "
You will find a very detailed analysis and statistics with the current
size of the bubble overinflated polish real estate prices
which are bursting down in flames...
You can easily see the REAL demand also going down since 2008,
to less than 20% of its original values...
" House Price Bubbles on the Major Polish Housing Markets "
You will find a very detailed analysis and statistics with the current
size of the bubble overinflated polish real estate prices
which are bursting down in flames...
You can easily see the REAL demand also going down since 2008,
to less than 20% of its original values...
please, please clarify your comments..
Special-Polak
17 Nov 2009 / #36
read the report made by NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND,
simply search on Google:
" House Price Bubbles on the Major Polish Housing Markets "
and read the report of NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND
You will understand everything ;)
simply search on Google:
" House Price Bubbles on the Major Polish Housing Markets "
and read the report of NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND
You will understand everything ;)
polsky = Michaelas = Tadeusz2007 = Popw = clarituslux
and now Special-Polak, (all the same person) you should learn to vary the way you structure your sentences.
" House Price Bubbles on the Major Polish Housing Markets "
The article you quote is quite interesting, but, as usual, the devil is in the detail, which you do not seem to understand. Even the authours of this article, admit that it is very difficult to compare the Polish property market to any other as it has not been in existence that long. So, in other words, they are guessing.
"You will understand everything" ;)
As you put such "great store" in this article, you must realise how the contents disprove the rubbish you have written in previous posts under all the different alias's that you use.
You have quoted developers profits in Krakow at 600-1200%, yet table 14 (although this refers to Warsaw, I assume Krakow is similar) in this article shows a maximum profit of 100%. You have also stated in a previous post that the developers cost per m2 is around 300 PLN, the same table 14 shows the developers cost at 5000 PLN m2 inc. land, VAT etc, so by stating that a new flat/house should cost a maximum of 200,000 PLN, this will buy you 40m2 with no profit for the developer? No one has disputed the fact that apartments have been built, purely for the rich and foreign clients who were/are willing to pay over the top prices, that is their choice.
The article was written to cover the period from 2004 until March of this year, since, which, unlike the rest of the EU, Poland has not been in a recession (the only EU member to remain in Poistive GDP) and the banks have always been strict with their lending criteria and thus have not sustained the predicted huge losses as per the article and none of the major developers have gone bankrupt either.
I will refer you to the last 3 paragraphs of the article you quote:-
"Another factor of the analysis is the assessment of future trends in the housing market. In the optimistic variant, developers have over 60% of projects sold which will enable them to spread sales and profit realization over the period of 2-3 years and wait for fundamental demand to drive sales of the existing housing stock. Prices will fall by 10% and, combined with inflationary depreciation, will slightly boost demand. Speculative investors will rent flats, or, if they are in a good financial condition, they will wait through the difficult period. A considerable decline in investment outlays will take 2-3 years.
In the pessimistic variant, bad economic condition of property developers and investors,
combined with further fall in demand as a result of deteriorating general economic situation will lead to devastating competition in the housing market. As a result, prices will see a deep fall, at least by 30%. Such large house sales will, however, lead to a strong recovery in demand, and the market will regain its balance within a year. A fall in investment outlays will take 1-1.5 years.
The in-between variant assuming a price fall of 15-20%, a gradual recovery in demand and the market regaining its balance within 1.5-2 years, seems the most likely. Investment outlays are likely to be expected. Such a variant would lead to the worsening in housing portfolio quality, albeit without a significant impact on the banking sector stability. Also the resulting decline in GDP would not be significant".
As per my previous posts regarding this thread, I agree that there will be a correction in prices on existing properties but there will not be a massive crash in prices. There will however be a shortage of new properties on the market as developers will keep new projects in abeyance until such time as the market improves.
If you are going to continue to post inane drival on PF, then at least learn about the subject first.
and now Special-Polak, (all the same person) you should learn to vary the way you structure your sentences.
" House Price Bubbles on the Major Polish Housing Markets "
The article you quote is quite interesting, but, as usual, the devil is in the detail, which you do not seem to understand. Even the authours of this article, admit that it is very difficult to compare the Polish property market to any other as it has not been in existence that long. So, in other words, they are guessing.
"You will understand everything" ;)
As you put such "great store" in this article, you must realise how the contents disprove the rubbish you have written in previous posts under all the different alias's that you use.
You have quoted developers profits in Krakow at 600-1200%, yet table 14 (although this refers to Warsaw, I assume Krakow is similar) in this article shows a maximum profit of 100%. You have also stated in a previous post that the developers cost per m2 is around 300 PLN, the same table 14 shows the developers cost at 5000 PLN m2 inc. land, VAT etc, so by stating that a new flat/house should cost a maximum of 200,000 PLN, this will buy you 40m2 with no profit for the developer? No one has disputed the fact that apartments have been built, purely for the rich and foreign clients who were/are willing to pay over the top prices, that is their choice.
The article was written to cover the period from 2004 until March of this year, since, which, unlike the rest of the EU, Poland has not been in a recession (the only EU member to remain in Poistive GDP) and the banks have always been strict with their lending criteria and thus have not sustained the predicted huge losses as per the article and none of the major developers have gone bankrupt either.
I will refer you to the last 3 paragraphs of the article you quote:-
"Another factor of the analysis is the assessment of future trends in the housing market. In the optimistic variant, developers have over 60% of projects sold which will enable them to spread sales and profit realization over the period of 2-3 years and wait for fundamental demand to drive sales of the existing housing stock. Prices will fall by 10% and, combined with inflationary depreciation, will slightly boost demand. Speculative investors will rent flats, or, if they are in a good financial condition, they will wait through the difficult period. A considerable decline in investment outlays will take 2-3 years.
In the pessimistic variant, bad economic condition of property developers and investors,
combined with further fall in demand as a result of deteriorating general economic situation will lead to devastating competition in the housing market. As a result, prices will see a deep fall, at least by 30%. Such large house sales will, however, lead to a strong recovery in demand, and the market will regain its balance within a year. A fall in investment outlays will take 1-1.5 years.
The in-between variant assuming a price fall of 15-20%, a gradual recovery in demand and the market regaining its balance within 1.5-2 years, seems the most likely. Investment outlays are likely to be expected. Such a variant would lead to the worsening in housing portfolio quality, albeit without a significant impact on the banking sector stability. Also the resulting decline in GDP would not be significant".
As per my previous posts regarding this thread, I agree that there will be a correction in prices on existing properties but there will not be a massive crash in prices. There will however be a shortage of new properties on the market as developers will keep new projects in abeyance until such time as the market improves.
If you are going to continue to post inane drival on PF, then at least learn about the subject first.
interesting issue all the more as I'm selling a flat. In short: don't put too much faith in any one prognosis because you never know where the info is coming from or what the motives are. Over the past year I have heard so many different opinions on the matter that I refuse to believe anyone or anything other than the market itself. Prices have fallen slightly (residential, in the city) but there are no signs of any cataclysms on the market.
Someone will always be looking for flats to buy, especially in Warsaw, so success just depends on the price. Our real estate agent filled us with juicy info about how flats in our neighborhood sell for 9000PLN per square meter, but this is obviously inflated and she is hoping for a nice fat commission. However, when you look at listings for comparable flats in the same hood, sure enough that's what people list them for.
Our neighbourhood grocer told us that her neighbor just sold for 8500 per sq meter...and we treat that as the best source of info.
I would like to believe that tales of 50 percent falls in prices are just uninformed guff.
Someone will always be looking for flats to buy, especially in Warsaw, so success just depends on the price. Our real estate agent filled us with juicy info about how flats in our neighborhood sell for 9000PLN per square meter, but this is obviously inflated and she is hoping for a nice fat commission. However, when you look at listings for comparable flats in the same hood, sure enough that's what people list them for.
Our neighbourhood grocer told us that her neighbor just sold for 8500 per sq meter...and we treat that as the best source of info.
I would like to believe that tales of 50 percent falls in prices are just uninformed guff.
szczeciniak 4 | 92
17 Nov 2009 / #39
if you think that the prices will collapse , then buy property option for 1 year and go short with them?
you will make a lot of zlotys?????
or better make Straddle and make zlotys on short and long?
you will make a lot of zlotys?????
or better make Straddle and make zlotys on short and long?
Krakow is not the most beautiful city in Europe , poor infrastructure , too cold , dirty city
LOL I would have said this ABOUT Warsaw; Krakow is nice but it has the makings of a rather provincial town.
SpecialP
18 Nov 2009 / #41
if you think that the prices will collapse , then buy property option for 1 year and go short with them?
you will make a lot of zlotys?????
or better make Straddle and make zlotys on short and long?
you will make a lot of zlotys?????
or better make Straddle and make zlotys on short and long?
Where can you sell short a property in Poland? I have no knowledge about this being possible.... it woul dbe awesome... pure profits huge ones
szczeciniak 4 | 92
18 Nov 2009 / #42
i can do it in north america, australia and asian makets
poland is somehow difficult to find out where the property index is?
i havent done index trading for a long long time and it was in use and australia.
for the last 15 years i do currency trading
i will try to do some research and let you know! what is up with poland!
poland is somehow difficult to find out where the property index is?
i havent done index trading for a long long time and it was in use and australia.
for the last 15 years i do currency trading
i will try to do some research and let you know! what is up with poland!
SpecialPolak
18 Nov 2009 / #43
When the price index will be done, prices will collapse a further 50%... because all the world will clearly see how overinflated the prices in Poland real estate are,
compared to mature markets like Germany , Netherlands, France
compared to mature markets like Germany , Netherlands, France
Whatever SpecialPolak. To be honest, I think we are all getting sick of you spamming the forum with your different user names and your sensationalist / misleading / untrue / out-of-context comments. Believe what you will, but no-one else here is taken in by your rubbish, and if you think your 'campaign' can actually have some influence on prices, then you are deluded.
As for the above comment, well this is just another example of your complete lack of understanding of how real estate markets work.
Just because prices in Poland are high compared to other mature markets in Western Europe does not mean that they will collapse and fall into line with other markets. The real estate market in Poland is driven largely by demand and supply in Poland and the domestic economy - what happens in France, Germany etc is not going to directly influence the prices in Poland. Maybe there are less foreign investors buying in Poland now, but there is also less hype and some reality entering the market, which is a good thing.
We had a boom in Poland (much like the rest of the world) which ended in the middle part of 2007. At the height of this boom, some parts of the Polish property market were in a bubble situation. But things have calmed down a lot since then. Prices have fallen around 20-30% on average from their peak. We are now returning to some kind of normal market situation in which prices should rise in a more subdued way, say 10% per annum. The Polish economy is still growing, unlike most of Western Europe, and some pretty nasty economies in the region (Baltic States, Hungary, Ukraine). The zloty has stabilised and is starting to strengthen.
True, there are still some issues in Poland. Credit is still hard to come by, but hopefully this situation will improve in 2010. Many owners still believe their apartments to be worth more than anyone will pay in the current environment - this is still prevalent in the centre of Krakow for example. But what is the point for an agent to overvalue an apartment if it's then priced at a level where no-one is prepared to pay anywhere near the price advertised? The agent doesn't make anything unless they sell the property. If you know what you are doing at the moment, there are bargains to be found - you just have to sift through a lot of overpriced offers.
The market in Poland is still maturing, that's for sure. But there is not going to be a crash in prices here, no matter what this spammer on the forum says.
If you know something about real estate in Poland, then support me on this. Don't let this spammer continue to dominate the real estate section with his lies and misinformed rubbish.
As for the above comment, well this is just another example of your complete lack of understanding of how real estate markets work.
Just because prices in Poland are high compared to other mature markets in Western Europe does not mean that they will collapse and fall into line with other markets. The real estate market in Poland is driven largely by demand and supply in Poland and the domestic economy - what happens in France, Germany etc is not going to directly influence the prices in Poland. Maybe there are less foreign investors buying in Poland now, but there is also less hype and some reality entering the market, which is a good thing.
We had a boom in Poland (much like the rest of the world) which ended in the middle part of 2007. At the height of this boom, some parts of the Polish property market were in a bubble situation. But things have calmed down a lot since then. Prices have fallen around 20-30% on average from their peak. We are now returning to some kind of normal market situation in which prices should rise in a more subdued way, say 10% per annum. The Polish economy is still growing, unlike most of Western Europe, and some pretty nasty economies in the region (Baltic States, Hungary, Ukraine). The zloty has stabilised and is starting to strengthen.
True, there are still some issues in Poland. Credit is still hard to come by, but hopefully this situation will improve in 2010. Many owners still believe their apartments to be worth more than anyone will pay in the current environment - this is still prevalent in the centre of Krakow for example. But what is the point for an agent to overvalue an apartment if it's then priced at a level where no-one is prepared to pay anywhere near the price advertised? The agent doesn't make anything unless they sell the property. If you know what you are doing at the moment, there are bargains to be found - you just have to sift through a lot of overpriced offers.
The market in Poland is still maturing, that's for sure. But there is not going to be a crash in prices here, no matter what this spammer on the forum says.
If you know something about real estate in Poland, then support me on this. Don't let this spammer continue to dominate the real estate section with his lies and misinformed rubbish.
SpecialPolak
20 Nov 2009 / #45
Just because prices in Poland are high compared to other mature markets in Western Europe does not mean that they will collapse and fall into line with other markets. The real estate market in Poland is driven largely by demand and supply in Poland and the domestic economy - what happens in France, Germany etc is not going to directly influence the prices in Poland. Maybe there are less foreign investors buying in Poland now, but there is also less hype and some reality entering the market, which is a good thing.
This is one of the most absurd things ever written on this forum.
So in your opinion "andy b", if average salary in France is 2 700 euros / month,
and in Poland 450 euros / month, somehow still, there is HIGHER demand
in Poland than in France ? Where is this "demand" ? The only one completely delusioning himself is only you "andy b".
You claim there is some "demand" that nobody sees, which makes it normal for
the real estate prices in Poland to be higher than in France,
even if the average salary (and therefore demand) is suited to a average price
of 450 eur / sq.m. maximum.
This is one of the most absurd things ever written on this forum.
Yes. I think you are right and you wrote it
So in your opinion "andy b", if average salary in France is 2 700 euros / month,
and in Poland 450 euros / month, somehow still, there is HIGHER demand
in Poland than in France
and in Poland 450 euros / month, somehow still, there is HIGHER demand
in Poland than in France
I wrote nothing about the average salary in France, you did.
I just wrote that there is demand in Poland from Polish people that want to live in Poland, not France.
Andy with respect, Poland has 38 million people, I don't think a couple of people wanting to live in Poland have bumped the prices of homes...lets get real, the majority of Poles are either pensioners or on a income of less than 1500zl a month and find it difficult to make ends meet. Those people buying on the higher scale are flush with funds and no matter how expensive real estate was they would still buy...Look at the price of homes in Hong Kong etc... The Polish lifestyle and infrastructure suits very few people let alone the harsh weather.. Andy you may get your slops from real estate, but understand some of us around haven't come down in the last shower.
I met a Polish man who works in Scandinavia and returns to his family every 6 months. They own land and a B&B in the mountains.He's keeping it going wth extra cash and she is making and selling cheese and keeping guests. Not all who work outside are disreputable as you seem to suggest.
SpimowitzSS
26 Nov 2009 / #49
the majority of Poles are either pensioners or on a income of less than 1500zl a month and find it difficult to make ends meet.
Yes, so they afford to buy a small studio with their salary in the next 200 years... at the current level of overinflated bubbled prices ;)
Kowalski2007
30 Nov 2009 / #50
lets get real, the majority of Poles are either pensioners or on a income of less than 1500 zl a month and find it difficult to make ends meet
Very true. That's why prices will go down towards 1500 zl / sq.m. in next years.
They were there in 2003 and 2004, they will just return to that same level
Of course real estate will return to a normal price: that is the average salary per month= price per meter. Which is about 2000 pln.
I can buy a house on the beach in Florida for the price of a small concrete flat in Krakow in a block.
Only a fool buys in a real estate bubble.
I can buy a house on the beach in Florida for the price of a small concrete flat in Krakow in a block.
Only a fool buys in a real estate bubble.
Kowalski2007
2 Dec 2009 / #52
That is what 90% of all economists and 90% of all real estate experts are saying also.
However, the big delusion of 5 - 9000 pln/sqm will start to fade away step by step, month by month... to return to normal correct price of 2000 pln/sqm
However, the big delusion of 5 - 9000 pln/sqm will start to fade away step by step, month by month... to return to normal correct price of 2000 pln/sqm
average salary per month.....Which is about 2000 pln.
No, it is not.
That is what 90% of all economists and 90% of all real estate experts are saying also.
No, it is not.
However, the big dellusion of 5 - 9000 pln/sqm will start to fade away step by step, month by month... to return to normal correct price of 2000 pln/sqm
No, it won't.
Spamming, does not change anything.
hullo
2 Dec 2009 / #54
No, it is not.
yes, yes, yes, net is about 2000, brut is about 3000zl, o mr sean wrong again.
again.
Your continual posting under a new name every time you are avoiding the realities are childish.
What ever 'reason' you have for spamming, it just shows us your immaturity and inability to discuss or debate your position.
Agreeing with yourself, makes you look silly.
dtaylor5632 18 | 1998
3 Dec 2009 / #56
1500 zl / sq.m. in next years.
Away go hang yourself. Are u trying to tell me I can buy a flat for 52000pln???!!!! The most BS Ive heard in a long time.
delphiandomine 86 | 17823
3 Dec 2009 / #57
yes, yes, yes, net is about 2000, brut is about 3000zl, o mr sean wrong again.
Sorry, it's you that's wrong.
Simple maths tells us that first time buyers will be fairly affluent and most likely married. Let's use the 3300zl average wage figure - that gives us just under 2400zl a month netto. Times that by 2 and you've got 4800zl a month netto - so by your maths, prices should be dropping down to around 5,000PLN sqm. Coincidentally, that's what we're seeing right now in Poznan, with premium developments going for around 6,000PLN/sqm.
They were there in 2003 and 2004, they will just return to that same level
Okay, now your ignorance is showing through quite badly. Why would they return to 2003/2004 prices when wages have dramatically increased since then, to the point where the minimum wage in Poland is becoming irrelevant because no-one is being paid it?
hullo
3 Dec 2009 / #58
Sorry, it's you that's wrong.
I'm not wrong, firstly the average wage is around the 3000zl mark, can we agree?? take home around the 2000zl agree?? x 2 is 4000, keep in mind that's the average wage I know many people who take home 1500zl ie teachers and bank workers, how are these people supposed to live on fresh air you may suggest, the reality is that things are pretty expensive in Poland ie running a car, computer, food etc. if say a couple purchased a modest apartment for say 450,000zl and had a deposit of say 100,000zl, it would take them a lifetime to pay off the mortgage. Even a professional person in Poland looking at purchasing a house in the upper market would have a big mortgage.
Take a good grip of yourself and think before you talk. Its either Polish incomes are too small or real estate properties are too expensive. by the way a pensioner receives about 800zl a month.. If wages go up so do goods and services and people like the unemployed, pensioners will be living in the gutter.The Polish government is in debt.
Kowalski2007
3 Dec 2009 / #59
hullo has very good points here.
especially that bank allows mortgage payment of ONLY 40% of the income.
if average NET income is 2000 pln/month, then maximum mortgage is 800 pln/month !
A person should not pay more than 5 years (let's say MAXIMUM 10 years)
for a shit_ty apartment, so 48 000 - 80 000 pln will be soon the MAXIMUM price
for a flat in the center of Krakow
especially that bank allows mortgage payment of ONLY 40% of the income.
if average NET income is 2000 pln/month, then maximum mortgage is 800 pln/month !
A person should not pay more than 5 years (let's say MAXIMUM 10 years)
for a shit_ty apartment, so 48 000 - 80 000 pln will be soon the MAXIMUM price
for a flat in the center of Krakow
firstly the average wage is around the 3000zl mark, can we agree??
The average salary for the whole of Poland has been released last month, it is 3300PL per month.
a modest apartment for say 450,000zl
That is the price of a house in the suburbs of one of the main cities.
Or a top end apartment in the the centre of one of the main cities.
agree??
Can't, i am afraid.
You are taking below average wage for the whole country and top end apartments in the main city centres.
how are these people supposed to live on fresh air you may suggest,
Learning how to use a calculator would be a good starting point at this stage for you and your aliases.
bank allows mortgage payment of ONLY 40% of the income.
This is to prevent people accumulating huge debt and prevents the type of thing that your point suggests.
ifaverage NET income is 2000 pln/month
'IF' is the main word there and it is not.
A person should not pay more than 5 years (let's say MAXIMUM 10 years)
for a shit_ty apartment, so 48 000 - 80 000 pln will be soon the MAXIMUM price
for a flat in the center of Krakow
for a shit_ty apartment, so 48 000 - 80 000 pln will be soon the MAXIMUM price
for a flat in the center of Krakow
Not going to happen just because you and your aliases think it should.