daniel.podpora
27 Dec 2008 / #1
Halo all
First of all I would like to take some comments regarding loans because I notice that some things are unclear.
First thing which is worth to mention is that the NPB cut the rate by 75point and the basic rate is 5% now. It is more than expected but still very high when we compare it to LIBOR. This will change the property situation?. Not at all. Especially now. The rates was cut but the margins are higher.
Before the crisis the bank margin in currency were from 0,8% up to 1,5%. The "standard" margin was 1%-1,2%
In PLN the margin started from 0,5% up to 1%. The average was 0,8%.
The LTV was from 100% up to 130%
And now we have:
The LTV in some banks are still 100% but the bank margin is 1,8% in PLN and 3% in currency. CHF is almost unavailable. Most of the advisors starts to offer the loans in euro and dollars with 2,5% bank margin.
The "standard" LTV is 80% and it is not true that 30% deposit is required.
And now I would like to ask everyone. Would you take a loan with bank margin 3%-5% in currency and 1,5%-2% for 30yrs?
I think no. it is not true that the prices are still high. They are really low but the customers are not interested not in the properties but loans. They are not waiting for lower prices but for better offers from the banks.
The longer the loan will not be available the longer the prices will go down.
But I notice as well that a large number of people resign from selling the properties for a such low prices. So we will not see a next 20 or 30% reduce in price. In my opinion it will be just 8-10%
On the forum I read that the forecast for GDP will be 3,9%. I saw analysis which say that GDP will be -0,5%. Everyone now are chasing to give the worst forecast but it is not possible to predict how much it will be.
The prosperity time will come back as soon as banks will start giving loans.
Also for non-residential customers loans are very hard to accessible. I would say that there are two banks for them now.
There is a very good time to build property portfolio. I think we have 6 months before the prices will start to rise.
At the moment I have 4 investors who asked me for a help to chose for them discounted properties. But cash is a king now.
I think we will see property growth sooner that expected. And it will not be 2012. I do not know why everyone likes so much this date :). What is your opinion?
Loan and property Advicer
First of all I would like to take some comments regarding loans because I notice that some things are unclear.
First thing which is worth to mention is that the NPB cut the rate by 75point and the basic rate is 5% now. It is more than expected but still very high when we compare it to LIBOR. This will change the property situation?. Not at all. Especially now. The rates was cut but the margins are higher.
Before the crisis the bank margin in currency were from 0,8% up to 1,5%. The "standard" margin was 1%-1,2%
In PLN the margin started from 0,5% up to 1%. The average was 0,8%.
The LTV was from 100% up to 130%
And now we have:
The LTV in some banks are still 100% but the bank margin is 1,8% in PLN and 3% in currency. CHF is almost unavailable. Most of the advisors starts to offer the loans in euro and dollars with 2,5% bank margin.
The "standard" LTV is 80% and it is not true that 30% deposit is required.
And now I would like to ask everyone. Would you take a loan with bank margin 3%-5% in currency and 1,5%-2% for 30yrs?
I think no. it is not true that the prices are still high. They are really low but the customers are not interested not in the properties but loans. They are not waiting for lower prices but for better offers from the banks.
The longer the loan will not be available the longer the prices will go down.
But I notice as well that a large number of people resign from selling the properties for a such low prices. So we will not see a next 20 or 30% reduce in price. In my opinion it will be just 8-10%
On the forum I read that the forecast for GDP will be 3,9%. I saw analysis which say that GDP will be -0,5%. Everyone now are chasing to give the worst forecast but it is not possible to predict how much it will be.
The prosperity time will come back as soon as banks will start giving loans.
Also for non-residential customers loans are very hard to accessible. I would say that there are two banks for them now.
There is a very good time to build property portfolio. I think we have 6 months before the prices will start to rise.
At the moment I have 4 investors who asked me for a help to chose for them discounted properties. But cash is a king now.
I think we will see property growth sooner that expected. And it will not be 2012. I do not know why everyone likes so much this date :). What is your opinion?
Loan and property Advicer