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The Polish Economy and its future [101]
I truly believe that Poland has a great future - however I also believe that future must be cared for tenderly and that this is a vulnerable time to be an emerging market.
Lets get to the problems later and answer the first part of the question first.
Firstly I have been in business for 4years in Poland and living here fulltime for 3years - I am engaged to a Polishman and we are expecting our first child any day now - I have made Poland my home and plan to bring up our family live and do business here. Its been an interesting time these last years and its very interesting being a foreigner in trying to do business here. I have alot of stories, some good some bad and have made alot of observations on business and life in Poland 2009.
I am Irish and have in my 3 years in Poland heard many politicans claim many times that they wanted to turn Poland into the new ireland, or to mimic our super fast economic growth - the celtic Tiger we called it at home. Yeah on paper up to the start of 2008 Ireland looked like it was the success story of europe - in 1990 ireland had massive unemployment, in the region of 20% and we had the highest national debt per head of capita in the world. Fast forward to 2003 and Ireland had about 1/2% unemployment - about 300,000 emigrant workers(huge amounts from poland) no national debt and one of the highest minimum wages in europe - in 13years the country had managed to turn itself around dramatically and we had overcome the black years of the 80's and were now deemed one of the richest countries in europe.
Today 2009 and there is a very different picture - unemployment was at 11.4% in april 2009, the irish government are borrowing in the region of 77million a day just to run the country - Irish banking is on its knees and wants the Irish government to rescue it - the cost of living is one of the higest in europe, the property market has collapsed and has left an estimated 340,000families in negative equity their homes it is claimed will not be in positive equity until 2020.
So what the hell happened - The first problem was far too much reliance on the USA - when the USA went down Ireland went down. Multinational companies who located to ireland for tax incentives and our educated, low waged work force - began to have problems and they decided the recession was a good 'excuse' to decide to leave. The banking crisis and finally over reliance on property and the a huge property bubble in ireland, over investment in the construction sector, most of the Irish wealth was actually based on credit and not savings, the banks were allowing people to use the equity in their homes to borrow, creditcard debt increased, people borrowed for cars, holidays, second properties, overseas properties, Dolce and Gabana designer clothes, people quite literally went mad, however they had to pay all this money back and once the credit crisis came and mortgages increased they were in troubl. Lastly the miss management and over spending by the Irish elected government of the wealth generated between 1990 and 2007- the government blew the profits of the good times and the running costs of the country were simply too high. Nothing was put aside for a rainy day... they also did not listen to economic advisers who knew that the economy was inflated they thought they new better.
How does this all relate to Poland.
Many of the Polish Politicans wanted to copy Ireland -
1/ Offer incentives to the multinationals to come and invest in Poland- low wages and tax incentives would create employment, DELL in Lodz - Sharp in Torun -e.t.c.
2/ Open the doors to all the banks - have you ever seen so many banks open in such a short time - if people became more comfortable with credit and were borrowing from the banks to buy apartments, cars go on holidays it would give the assumption that Poland was a booming country, having to pay back the credit also made the job market way more competitive, people would have to work to keep paying the debt, if not they would lose their apartments.
My own experience is that alot of the companies that come to Poland have no real interest in Poland and they buy Polish business, drive it really hard to make as much money at as low a cost basis as possible and then take all the profits out of the country, thats what happened in Ireland - we had a hugely inflated GDP but none of the money stayed in the country, once the country was not of use to them anymore i.e they found a cheaper workforce and more favorable tax incentives elsewhere they left. Poland needs to learn from this. Many polish business people sold home grown businesses to large foreign companies, for massive money, many of these businesses should have belonged to the Polish people but the kaos after communism meant that many Polish businesses ended up in private hands and many individual made millions from businesses which essentially should have belonged to the Polish people. Unfortunately I have met many un nationalistic and exceptionally greedy dishonourable Polish people who are happy to sit with me over dinner and boast about how much they stole after communism.
The way forward I think is to ensure that new businesses and ideas are supported, buy polish products and support Polish businesses - I think that there should be more business partnerships with foreigners so that all the wealth is not taken out of the country but remains here and is used to fuel further business. Greed is the real enemy, greedy un nationalistic people who want to have massive amounts of cash and have no interest in the country as a whole are not good for the economy. We saw it in ireland too and now look at the state of the economy.
I think the recession came at a very good time for Poland and people did not get too wealthy or comfortable with debt, people know how to live on a budget and thats why this country is not feeling devasted now. In ireland the last time I was home i went to the local jabka - or centra as its called, I saw a school kid buying a breakfast sandwich, a late - another sandwich and can of coke for his school lunch and I saw him hand 12euro over the counter, if he did this 5 days a week thats 60euro thats 240euro a month thats 1008PLN @4.2pln to euro a month - as well anyone who lives in Poland knows many people can live, feed a family on 1000pln per month - this was a schoolkid 16years - its crazyness like this that shows the recession came at a good time or Poland. Irish English and germans e.t.c. all the richer nations of europe have to change their lifestyle so drastically now, its devastating for them. Polish people know how to be happy while on a budget. Polish people also know how to work hard. Many of the people who have been living overseas will come home and setup businesses, thats vital and its key that the ideas of the new businesses are Polish owned and that partnerships are created and the experience of foreigners used to create and run new polish business but its really important that the profits stay in Poland.
Anyways this has become a bit of a rant - but in all I think Polands future is bright and why - because of the strength, courage and intelligence of the people. Its important to stay positive and not to get caught up in too much rubbish, but its all here, just important to try and get it done.
MKD