News / The Polish Economy and its future [101]

I truly believe that Poland has a great future - however I also believe that future must be cared for tenderly and that this is a vulnerable time to be an emerging market.

Lets get to the problems later and answer the first part of the question first.

Firstly I have been in business for 4years in Poland and living here fulltime for 3years - I am engaged to a Polishman and we are expecting our first child any day now - I have made Poland my home and plan to bring up our family live and do business here. Its been an interesting time these last years and its very interesting being a foreigner in trying to do business here. I have alot of stories, some good some bad and have made alot of observations on business and life in Poland 2009.

I am Irish and have in my 3 years in Poland heard many politicans claim many times that they wanted to turn Poland into the new ireland, or to mimic our super fast economic growth - the celtic Tiger we called it at home. Yeah on paper up to the start of 2008 Ireland looked like it was the success story of europe - in 1990 ireland had massive unemployment, in the region of 20% and we had the highest national debt per head of capita in the world. Fast forward to 2003 and Ireland had about 1/2% unemployment - about 300,000 emigrant workers(huge amounts from poland) no national debt and one of the highest minimum wages in europe - in 13years the country had managed to turn itself around dramatically and we had overcome the black years of the 80's and were now deemed one of the richest countries in europe.

Today 2009 and there is a very different picture - unemployment was at 11.4% in april 2009, the irish government are borrowing in the region of 77million a day just to run the country - Irish banking is on its knees and wants the Irish government to rescue it - the cost of living is one of the higest in europe, the property market has collapsed and has left an estimated 340,000families in negative equity their homes it is claimed will not be in positive equity until 2020.

So what the hell happened - The first problem was far too much reliance on the USA - when the USA went down Ireland went down. Multinational companies who located to ireland for tax incentives and our educated, low waged work force - began to have problems and they decided the recession was a good 'excuse' to decide to leave. The banking crisis and finally over reliance on property and the a huge property bubble in ireland, over investment in the construction sector, most of the Irish wealth was actually based on credit and not savings, the banks were allowing people to use the equity in their homes to borrow, creditcard debt increased, people borrowed for cars, holidays, second properties, overseas properties, Dolce and Gabana designer clothes, people quite literally went mad, however they had to pay all this money back and once the credit crisis came and mortgages increased they were in troubl. Lastly the miss management and over spending by the Irish elected government of the wealth generated between 1990 and 2007- the government blew the profits of the good times and the running costs of the country were simply too high. Nothing was put aside for a rainy day... they also did not listen to economic advisers who knew that the economy was inflated they thought they new better.

How does this all relate to Poland.
Many of the Polish Politicans wanted to copy Ireland -

1/ Offer incentives to the multinationals to come and invest in Poland- low wages and tax incentives would create employment, DELL in Lodz - Sharp in Torun -e.t.c.

2/ Open the doors to all the banks - have you ever seen so many banks open in such a short time - if people became more comfortable with credit and were borrowing from the banks to buy apartments, cars go on holidays it would give the assumption that Poland was a booming country, having to pay back the credit also made the job market way more competitive, people would have to work to keep paying the debt, if not they would lose their apartments.

My own experience is that alot of the companies that come to Poland have no real interest in Poland and they buy Polish business, drive it really hard to make as much money at as low a cost basis as possible and then take all the profits out of the country, thats what happened in Ireland - we had a hugely inflated GDP but none of the money stayed in the country, once the country was not of use to them anymore i.e they found a cheaper workforce and more favorable tax incentives elsewhere they left. Poland needs to learn from this. Many polish business people sold home grown businesses to large foreign companies, for massive money, many of these businesses should have belonged to the Polish people but the kaos after communism meant that many Polish businesses ended up in private hands and many individual made millions from businesses which essentially should have belonged to the Polish people. Unfortunately I have met many un nationalistic and exceptionally greedy dishonourable Polish people who are happy to sit with me over dinner and boast about how much they stole after communism.

The way forward I think is to ensure that new businesses and ideas are supported, buy polish products and support Polish businesses - I think that there should be more business partnerships with foreigners so that all the wealth is not taken out of the country but remains here and is used to fuel further business. Greed is the real enemy, greedy un nationalistic people who want to have massive amounts of cash and have no interest in the country as a whole are not good for the economy. We saw it in ireland too and now look at the state of the economy.

I think the recession came at a very good time for Poland and people did not get too wealthy or comfortable with debt, people know how to live on a budget and thats why this country is not feeling devasted now. In ireland the last time I was home i went to the local jabka - or centra as its called, I saw a school kid buying a breakfast sandwich, a late - another sandwich and can of coke for his school lunch and I saw him hand 12euro over the counter, if he did this 5 days a week thats 60euro thats 240euro a month thats 1008PLN @4.2pln to euro a month - as well anyone who lives in Poland knows many people can live, feed a family on 1000pln per month - this was a schoolkid 16years - its crazyness like this that shows the recession came at a good time or Poland. Irish English and germans e.t.c. all the richer nations of europe have to change their lifestyle so drastically now, its devastating for them. Polish people know how to be happy while on a budget. Polish people also know how to work hard. Many of the people who have been living overseas will come home and setup businesses, thats vital and its key that the ideas of the new businesses are Polish owned and that partnerships are created and the experience of foreigners used to create and run new polish business but its really important that the profits stay in Poland.

Anyways this has become a bit of a rant - but in all I think Polands future is bright and why - because of the strength, courage and intelligence of the people. Its important to stay positive and not to get caught up in too much rubbish, but its all here, just important to try and get it done.

MKD

News / The Polish Economy and its future [101]


Thanks for the welcome - I am trying to adjust to my new role as mum to be and winding my mind down is one of the really difficult things to do - but it must be done, I do enjoy reading about whats going on in the world at the moment and hearing what other people in business are going through so I am enjoying the site.

However - i don't like negativity - i realise that people can be frustrated and that things are hard but I am a great believer in taking responsibility for ones own life - 'life is not fair' nobodies perfect, the plus in that is that 'nobodies' perfect so that is pretty fair... haha

what I am trying to say is its important to always be deadly honest and not to get down about things when the going gets tough... i have'nt always been this way and have done the angry the worlds against me stuff but its pointless and the sunrises always on a new day, one of lifes certaintys so best to always try and be positive. I also have a fighting spirit and will not give in, so I don't let things get me down for very long. So I hate to see people moaning and being negative for the sake of it, negatives are vital but when they become an approach or a way of life, its not good and just doesn't work - nothing is ever that black and white -

anyways I am ranting again.

thanks for the welcome is what I am trying to say.

mkd

News / The Polish Economy and its future [101]


Thats not exactly true, i would say todays economy is mostly virtual - do you have all your money in your home? i think the answer most people would give to that question is no its in the bank and they view it virtually on a computer.

If we all went to the bank today and tried to withdraw all our money, could the banks give it to us? the answer is obviously no!

This is a banking crisis - the worlds dependence on Oil is another huge factor I agree and its making aspects of modern life way more expensive - i.e travel - the car industry is falling apart but I am very sure that somebody has a solution which they will hold the world to ransom with, or may even be holding the world to ransom with now.

As for the Poles loosing their jobs - in many cases the recession has been used as an excuse to get rid of dead wood, every company can cut costs, in good times people don't bother, now people are doing that - I did it in my own office, we hadn't reviewed wages, banking costs, phones e.t.c. when we looked into we brought the operating costs of the company down by a shocking 43%. Its a great time to get good deals and to bargain with people for better deals.

In the past alot of companies always produced way more than they needed, now with recession they don't want to sit on excess stock so they have cut bank, many banks have increased the margins on overdrafts and banking facilities so companies don't use them.

re china - well we are such a consumer society - Poland not so much as the richer countries in europe - just look in your wardrobe - how many pairs of shoes do you have - way more than you can ever wear- in the past people did not have so many and so much of everything, you bought something and it lasted. One of the big things about the 'credit generation' is you work all week and then you spend all weekend in the mall buying **** you don't need - look at TV the fashion industry how much advertising is done to make you think that you need all this consumer stuff, being a women its even worse - there is some rubbish beauty product to do everything for a woman - how much of it is actually needed. Very little.

In Poland people still grow vegtables and your food is very healthy and natural with people cooking at home from scratch - go to other richer world countries and look at their diets, packaged food full of additives. Alot of families in smaller towns still grow potatoes e.t.c so many poles make Jars every year, to be stored through winter.

These are all reasons why Poland is not feeling the world credit recession, because they have a more healthy and normal lifestyle.

As for the prostitution point - well thats just a bit out there to be honest - no one is hungry in Poland so I hardly think that career choice is based on survival, more on choice.

MKD

Law / Raising Investment in Poland [7]

I have not been on this site long enough to be able to PM sorry - also I am due to have a baby anyday which makes things a bit more difficult.

Its always good however to have another opinion - i think it would be a great idea to set up a group that maybe has meetings for foreigners and Polish who would like the benefit of each others experience or to create synergies to help businesses improve. I have been a member of various business groups in ireland from Rotary international to smaller groups and always found them so helpful, I have had some great mentoring from retired people who have left the working world but like to keep the brain active, wow i met some great people who had so much advice and experience and money to contribute to younger business people.

mkd

Real Estate / Foreigners: Please don't buy Polish Land! [823]

Well if you don't have to be a genius to work out that foreigners have driven up the price of real estate in Poland, why don't you spend a halfhour on line and get a valid statistic to back up your point, if its so true and obvious then its obvious that you can find validation for this point

I for one would take you a hell of alot more seriously!!!

News / The Polish Economy and its future [101]

Change your doctor -

News / The Polish Economy and its future [101]

The thing with doctors is, if you go to them they never let you leave their office without giving you a perscription, I have argued with my doctor all through the pregnancy and he actually told me that people don't think they are doing their job properly unless they get a perscription. Once he knew I was not that kind of person we had a more honest and natural approach.

If its your first child its hard not to be nervous, so running to the doctor is inevitable because if anything happened to your child you would never forgive yourself.

if you think back to our parents generation, people drank and smoked during pregnancy did'nt have scans or take vitamins and all the other stuff we are taking now and they all turned out pretty fairly healthy.

Its hard to know what to do.

I am finding the pregnancy experience much cheaper than in Ireland, dramatically.

mkd

News / The Polish Economy and its future [101]


Everything you say is true and I cannot disagree with you, however its the same in any emerging market and compared to Russia or the Ukraine Slovakia and Czech republic - I would have Poland anyday -

Communism was not so long ago. There is still this contact look after your friends mentality, i have come across so many people who create elaborate devious schemes that demand so much of their time to think up. They are always caught out and end up looking stupid. My moto is 'if a deal looks too good to be true - then thats probably because it is too good to be true' The honest straight forward approach may mean you take longer to make money but you can sleep at night.

Its easier to do business in Germany, Holland and UK because reputation is everything, people here do not realise the importance of reputation and professionalism hence they try to rip off foreigners up to now there were enough stupid people who did not do the groundwork to allow them to get away with it. Not anymore.

People need to use the legal system more and see court cases to the end - when enough people get sued or go to jail for downright illegal behaviour then people will be more honest they will have to be and thats why the German - english - dutch systems work - there is accountability.

My final point is that Poland needs to create an efficient market in Poland before it can focus on the rest of europe - if poland can become a reliable accountable place to do business it will be stronger than germany, why, because its cheaper - do we love the chinese, no they are cheaper, its all about cost effectivness and germany holland e.t.c are no longer cost effective. Poland bottom line is. The poles need to be open to learning about professionalism and accountability and to forge real business alliances rather than trying to out wit the foreigners and take their money, its downright stupid, why join europe if you want to be an island, does poland think its can take all the positives without having to actually give something, some say that this attitude comes from an inferiority complex, well get over that straight away, id rather deal with an honest pole than a self rightious german anyday, but if i can't find professionalism honesty and accountability and keep meeting greedy devious schemers then I am out of here and who would blame me eh.

mkd

News / The Polish Economy and its future [101]


No my point is not that, look at TPSA who owns it - a french company - all the profits leave the country - focus on home and get that right, create alliances and partnerships controlled by Polish businessmen and keep profits at home.

There is huge nationalism in Germany, holland and england - business people who remain residents of these countries and have no problem paying tax to the exchequers of these countries. In poland the fact that TPSA a french company could even buy a network like this in the first place is completely crazy to me, massive profit walking out of Poland day in day out and how many other businesses are like this.

Polish business should be Polish part owned, but most Poles are so greedy, they want millions, money they can't even spend. Some of the richest people I know live the most normal lives, they invest in credability and have ideals and nationalism. They want a future for their kids.

The potential to create some great businesses is here at the moment and the low wages are a key factor, it allows poland to export to the rest of europe and really compete with more established products produced in germany e.t.c but the profits to create any real future for poland need to stay in Poland. Ireland is an example here, mutinationals come in setup factories, employ people, people have money and can buy houses, there are not enough houses so developers met the demand, but they are greedy and they use the supply and demand problem to put up the prices- what do the irish government do - instead of regulating the area and keeping residential prices capped they earn huge capital gains tax income and are so happy to get this money that they do not get involved and allow greedy developers to profit on the sale of peoples homes. Then america enters a huge recession - at this point europe has made ireland bring in minimum wage, if they don't agree they will bring them to court and deny them the right to offer such low tax incentives to multinationals. Once the minimum wage comes in the multinationals have to pay more, so they want out. Without employment people cannot pay mortgages. What a lovely mess the Irish government have created.

Own the businesses is the way to sort this out and create a stable self sufficient market at home and then like china produce everything for cheaper than everyone else and become a really rich counrty.

hahaha what a rant, I have just solved the problems of the polish nation, now I think I will have some lunch....

i don't think its that simple - wish it was, i do believe the key is to be a self sufficient nation - to strike oil might be a nice bonus as well haha!!

mkd

Real Estate / Foreigners: Please don't buy Polish Land! [823]

Access to money has driven the market much more than foreign investment or English investment, in otherwords more polish people have the money to buy apartments. If lots of Polish people all want to buy the same apartments what does the developer do, he in creases the price -

think about it Bolek - if you had 100 bottles of water and 200 people desperately wanted to buy your water and you were a greedy bastard and your Polish government had no laws to stop you increasing the price of water to any level you please and people were so desperate to have water that they were willing to sign away 25years of their lives and monthly income to pay for that water, you would see an opportunity to make alot of money and you would charge excessively for your water.

You would you know!!!

Many foreigners were burned quite badly in Poland because they bought apartments in the more exclusive concept developments sold by other foreigners and aimed at the outside market, these highly over priced apartments have decreased in value now - which should make you very happy and many of the people are so short of cash that they will offload them for 3/4 or half of what they paid for them, which means good deals at the expense of foreigners for the Polish.

So as we say in Ireland, 'its an ill wind that does not blow somebody good'

Oh that it was so simple to really believe that the problems of increases residential prices could be blamed on foreigners -

I do however think it pleases your little heart to truly believe this, not good for you in the end of the day because the real people you should be blaming are off the hook because you and Ola refuse to deal in facts and like a drowning man just want to hold tight to your small minded opinions.

Hitler had his small minded opinions too and look what happened. he blamed the jews for all the woes of post world war Germany.

Love / What are the perceptions of polish towards homosexuality? [106]

I really don't care what other people do to fullfill themselves sexually. As long as two people are in control and comfortable with their choice then I have no problem with it.

Who the hell am I to decide what choices are right for other people. Its their own business and as long as they are enjoying their choices and feel comfortable then what is the problem?

Its not my life choice - but I still don't believe that I have the right to inflict my opinions and view of society on someone else, its just stupid to think that the feelings Homosexual and lesbian people have will somehow go away if you deny them the right to have them. What usually happens is the feeling become associated with guilt and the repression and pushes them in directions that are not so open and expressed. It creates a huge alienation and loneliness for people, wasted lives, homosexuality and lesbianism has and always will be part of society no mater what my views are its not going away, I can deny their right to their feelings but it will not change their feelings, I can condemn them, judge them and abuse them but they will still feel what they feel. Acceptance their feeling does not change my sexuality.

Live and let live and vive la difference -

Bolek you fight for the rights of racists on the posts about foreigners and think its so great that everyone has an opinion and you cannot accept that gay peoples attraction is a right.

You are a true bigot

A bigot (in modern usage) is a prejudiced person who is intolerant of any opinions differing from their own or intolerant of people of different ethnicity, race, or class.

Real Estate / Foreigners: Please don't buy Polish Land! [823]

Ireland is a rip off country fact and its mighty hard to live there right now.

The Irish government are totally to blame - 320,000 people in negative equity an will be till 2020, paying off their homes with job loses happening everyday, its scary times for people -

I don't think that investors should be allowed to profit massively from residential property, its a persons right to have a home, leave them make money elsewhere.

Real Estate / Foreigners: Please don't buy Polish Land! [823]

They re elect the same party over and over - FF suck and have no plan future.

look at the lisbon treaty vote -

the policy of the government is ' vote yes' why? because we told you too.

the real damage was done many years ago and now its like holding onto a rising balloon, you are too far off the ground so if you let go now you are going to break alot bones and injure yourself, however how long can you hold on for....

I think Poland needs can learn alot from the mistakes of the Irish.

Real Estate / Foreigners: Please don't buy Polish Land! [823]

Irish people don't care enough to take drastic action - its a trait of the nation, they constantly moan & complain and have endless debates on the TV and then re elect the same morans - We have had one dominant party who deal in the same **** since the foundation of the freestate - 1923. The population is so small that the property developers had the government in their pockets and despite advice from many many people the government believed that they could sustain the property market... boy were they wrong. Now it will be back to the old days when all the educated young people emigrate as soon as they get their degrees because there is no chance of decent work at home. sad really...

this is going to take along time to fix!!

Real Estate / Foreigners: Please don't buy Polish Land! [823]

Yup that strike idea is good and its the only way to make the government take notice.

Love / My Perfect Love Story so I thought [73]

Whenever I hear a story like yours this image always pops into my mind - you have no idea really who or what you fell in love with, you have never met each other. Don't be so quick to give your heart to someone you have never met. Its just a fantasy! your fantasy and you are projecting your hopes and dreams on a person you have not actually checked out in person, its very dangerous.

Good luck in the future,
Be a little more cautious is my advice.

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Love / Shall we go back to interracial relationships for a bit? [50]

This image says it all to me!!!

all relationships are difficult - if your family really love you they will accept your life choices.

Good luck

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Real Estate / Selling building land - advice needed [9]


Who the hell likes to use agents - I have said many times on this site that I try to always be very positive about everything.

well o.k not everything - I hate property agents -

I make no bones about it, as a group they are in the majority dishonest money grabbing greedy, devious, liars e.t.c. e.t.c. i could use lots more stronger words but i would like to retain my lady like composure. In all countries of the world, no one country is any worse than any other, actually maybe the Irish agents are the worst because of the area of inflated valuations, hence alot of the current banking crisis. It will be interesting what the valuers appointed by the irish government to value all the crisis property will be doing.

Poles don't want to pay money for nothing and sometimes when you are buying the agents fee is money for nothing. However if a good agent with all the lovely characteristics I outlined above is involved in the sale, you may get more money, my advice is a combination of the two, if you speak polish put a sign on your land and a phone number and see what happens, tell the agent you deal with that you are doing it too. However if you don't live here then they may take your sign down, advertise it on line Allegro is good.

In relation to the agents commission - they will all tell you its a standard 3% - total horse manure - NEGOTIATE - they are getting commission both sides.

I could tell you stories of deviousiousity in ireland and poland that would scare you, many agents will buy a good deal themselves and still charge you commission and not take valid higher offers.

If you get a valuation hire a company that you can trust -
Savilles - cover the whole of poland, but they aint cheap -

This is probably the one I trust the most but your valuation will be expensive, but a proper valuation. If you want to save money contact a bank in the local area of your land and ask them to recommend a valuer, this is good because they won't take risk and you will get the number of someone who you can trust thats local and will give you the real value.

Contary to what I say there is always honest people everywhere, the problem is that the really honest people are always busy with repeat business so not out touting business and the people who you find easily who speak good english and talk everything up are usually the people to really avoid. beware of the really hot girl who speaks english and is sooooo nice - she is wall paper and used to lull you into a false sense of security, if I had a euro for every Irishman who has fallen for that trap I would have at least a nice two week holiday for myself. These ladies couldn't organise a pissup in a brewery and are usually doing their nails in the office, one friend made a surprise visit to the city he bought an apartment and was ringing such a lady who sold him an apartment, she was ignoring his calls, when he got to outside the office, he could see her and she could not see him, he was calling she wasn't answering, boy she she get a fright when he walked through the door - BUSTED!!!

Be wise is all I'm saying, its a crazy business so proceed with extreem caution!!!!

good luck with your sale.

MKD

Real Estate / Selling building land - advice needed [9]

It is good advice to surf these websites but they are also controlled by the agents, think about it, in this market where cash is king alot of stuff is selling way below market value, its interesting to watch how much stuff is selling on these sites. We are trying to buy a bigger apartment at the moment and I know every site and the stuff thats on it. I also know the price that will be accepted on some places and its 100,000pln off the asking price on the website. The agents keep contoll of these sites with bogus properties to make it look like the market is still very stable - what things are selling for is a very different story. Cash is King!!!

One other problem if you don't have a proper valuation on your property land, if you agree a sale price and lets say its subject to your client getting finance, they go to the bank get a valuation and its less than the price you have agreed, its a bad situation to be in, your client can get out of the sale. If you have a valuation thats from a babk approved company, its going to be conservative and realistic, in the current market things are not good and its hard to raise finance so this is the most common reason people are walking away from a sale.

This way in my opinion you save yourself alot of heartache. My advice if you can is wait - the banks will be more open in the newyear or mid of next year.

Real Estate / Selling building land - advice needed [9]

Well they are saying they will - property is seen as high risk at the moment. Many banks like WBK are over exposed to property i.e. they have maybe 3/4 of their lending book lent to property and that makes them nervous, its the area of greatest return for the least risk i.e european law is very in favour of the banks when its comes to defaulting on paying your mortgage. In Poland in the area of home mortgage the risk area is swiss franc mortgages- too many people have mortgages in swiss franc and it has created unease in the banks, if people start to default on mortgages then the banks who are stable here will have problems.

The people who I know in banking told me their brief for 2009 was wait and see, sit on the fence so to speak, cut costs in the running of banks, give people high rates of interest and get them to put their savings in longterm high interest accounts and wait and see how the year pans out. In 2010 have a look at how things are going and with caution start lending again.

So all you can do is wait, I have seen some fantastic apartments for such great prices, some people have to sell, maybe they were left the apartment in a will and want the money, maybe its a couple getting divorced who want to move on and need to sell, but who has money at the moment, its a bad time to sell apartments you can't get money from the bank... what do you do.

euro millions is 100million this week, maybe thats the best way to go.

Real Estate / Avoiding tax when selling a flat in PL [19]

Capital gains is a fair tax, if you are selling and you have to pay it then you have made a profit, its a good situation to be in. That profit was made on the strength of the good economic situation which all the people in poland are responsible for and should gain from. Capital gains tax is 21 plus % IN ireland and in the UK can be almost 40%(not exact about this) on an investment property. you are liable for income tax on the capital gains too but will be liable for that in your country of residence.

The setup first day was when you should have considered all this and weighed up the pros and cons of setting up a sp.zoo to own the property, that way you can offset costs in the company against the capital gains. You could have paid yourself a consultancy fee through the company and made the profit look minimal. However you would still be liable for incometax on the profit. Income tax is a little easier to avoid than capital gains.

I think capital gains is fair enough, you have made money, good for you, in Poland and the state of Poland is entitled to a slice.

Grin and bear it!!! or plan better from the start, people are funny they think that lawyers and tax consultants are expensive at the beginning and then in the end they pay more capital gains and income tax and wish they had got the professional advice from the start.

PLANNING IS KEY AT ALL TIMES - Get quality professional advice and the start and save money in the end.

Real Estate / Avoiding tax when selling a flat in PL [19]

If you use the property as the setup capital of the company you have an easier ride with the banks - but as I said you need to weigh up the costs - do the maths beforehand - this is strictly for investment and not advised for owning your home, once the property is used as the setup capital the banks can take it much easier, which is why they will lend easier. If you intend to flip and to keep reinvesting the sp.zoo is a better option and can allow you to offset alot of costs.

Again research needs to be done.

For real Tax planning offshore is way forward, however I don't know if I am morally in favor of it, I do know how to do it and enjoy finding a way to avoid such issues, i.e prove that it can be done, and it can be done legally and its what every multinational does, they are loyal to no nation to profit alone and to be honest I think thats what has the world as messed up as it is at the moment. Profit should not be peoples only goal. Off shore is costly and means living on the edge all the time. I think that paying tax is only fair and everyone should be loyal to their nation or what nation they want to live in. Give a bit back rather than take all the time.

Real Estate / Avoiding tax when selling a flat in PL [19]

Capital gains is on profit, gain on the capital input - of course your loan is taken into consideration - talk with the notary who is handling the sale and they will clarify everything.