@FUZZYWICKETS, different "visa thread" the same attitute, speculations without any meaningful statistical foundation. We might as well speculate what if Martians invade earth tommorow. There is no value in such discussioin only fancy rhetoric. I'm not begging for numbers, I found some and give some, and made logical argument based on that. I'm not begging, I'm expecting the other side to do the same, otherwise any discussion is pointless. But, what the hell, lets see through your question. But first some word about your method of discussion wich I cann't accept:
You cannot beg for numbers without having an idea of what numbers would be acceptable and what numbers wouldn't. Otherwise, what would be the point even if you had the real numbers in front of you, no?
Heh, that statement is somehow disqualifing... The whole idea of real numbers is to make an assement based on them not the other way around. Otherwise it is close to making the judgment without a rationale. Actually that is the point: I had no idea or personal agenda before I engaged in this visas threads. But after some discussions and data research I come to conclussion as stated before, that main fault here lies on US clerks at embassy. I can be proof wrong easilly with valid data about overstaying and other violations. You just have to make an effort and bring something against this:
Number of "Tourists and business travelers" (without student exchange) in 2009 (wich I suppose means tourist visas) was:Last but not least, Your questions:
Number of "deportable aliens located by region and country of nationality: fiscal year 2009" from Poland was:
IF.....the USA announced TOMORROW that 1% of all Poles that visit america on a tourist visa overstay their visas and IF out of those 10% that get refused every year, 1% planned on overstaying.....would those numbers justify Poland's exclusion from the VWP?
As was stated before in fact overstaying is not directly connected with refusal (excluding those who overstayed and apply again), but a possibility of overstaying. The problem I have with it is like this:
1. is it at least in part an mathematically calculated possibility and statistics about it do exist?
2. or is it just a lucky guess of US clerk?
So far it seems that it is rather number two, because data from US HS don't add up with 10% refusal rate, at least to me.AND FINALLY THE ANSWER! It depends... ;-) :
The answer depends on the idea of 3% threshold. If the idea is that theoretically US clerks are 100% effective then refusal rate is equal to people who would overstayed. If that is the case then if 1% in fact planned to overstay, then it is below 3% threshold which means that in such situation Poland should be included in VWP.
The same with 1% who actually overstays, it would be still below hypothetical 3% threshold. The other conclusion from your hypothetical situation would be that US clerks are highly ineffective because with 10% refusal rate and 1% actual violations they would exclude 9 innocent people in 10. If that would be the case something should be done to increase their work effectiveness or fire them and get better ones ;-) After all it is not Poland who loses something but USA tourist industry. Well, I'm aware that this are peanuts but not long ago I saw some american guy on CNBC crying that they have great services but since USA become besieged fortress they are lossing bussiness. Your choice :-)
PS. I assumed that by:
IF out of those 10% that get refused every year, 1% planned on overstaying
You meaned 1% out of 100% visa applications NOT 1% out of 10% refusals.
IF NOT, what numbers would justify Poland's exclusion?
The rate of exclusion is clear, above 3% refusal rate of visas. I have no problem with that threshold. I don't agree with the way refusal rate for Poles is made, which is a lucky guess of US clerks who don't have to support their decisions with anything. I think that their attitude originates in inertia and previous behaviour of Poles, but it has not much to do with current situation. I just feel sorry for people who paid a few hundred zlotys, went half of Poland and get 2 minute interview and refusal without any valid reason. I would say it is veery bad service.