The current property boom in Poland is a bubble

Markets always find their own level and something will eventually give.

Many people simply refuse to drop their prices, holding out..... fatal move.

if left alone maybe, but not with government sponsored developer grants.

That still going on?

Interesting Statics for the first 2 months.

Highlights:
- Number of finished dwelings are up with 2,8% compared to last month.
- Permission to start build is down with 24,1%
- Started bulidings are down with 27.3%

Funny part is that the "headline" in the static from GUS is the tiny increase of 2,8% and not the numbers that is truly significant!

We have just let our flat out after 2months empty, hoo fking ray. Our friends however are still looking boohoo....


They do this because they took mortgages out in CHF and now find their monthly repayments are more than their rent charged..... f*cked.
And also desirable locations, ha.... the developers did a very good job during the euphoria from 2004-2007 in marketing new developments with luxury apartments in areas advertised as convenient, with city post codes, these developments were luxury apartment blocks surrounded by forest located off SLIP roads into major cities. rubbish.

no, they do this because it is a stubborn Polish mentality.

I am being driven to alcoholism by my in laws because of this. You can't change how the vast majority think.

and what about the Irish who bough at the height of the bubble,,Irish mentality?

seriously? Love the Irish, but they don't exactly have the best reputation with money.

Pathetic sweeping statement about an entire people. What is your origin/ethnicity? Have they a good reputation with money? Or is it just Slavs and Celts?

Back on topic.

Would it be on topic to observe that almost all of the individual Irish people which I met out here buying property were accidental speculators, i.e. people who wanted to invest but in reality were speculating as a result of falling victim to smooth talking shysters and rip-off merchants?

The property market in Poland is most certainly a better one now that those shysters and rip-off merchants have moved on to other places. Hopefully we won't see them back again anytime in the future.

Ok, but us Irish don't like to be stereotyped negatively anymore,end of story. There is a peace process.


very true.

my maternal grandparents immigrated from Liverpool and my paternal grandparents immigrated from Ireland and Scotland.

Did you ever?

The stereotyping of the Irish (catholics) as feckless and stupid is purely British Unionist propaganda.

Well !!!it's common in Ireland to tell jokes about how stupid Paddy Irish Man is etc,, but we are slowly losing this slave mentality. Even today in Ireland, when some Irish people come across something they think ridiculous or stupid, they very often refer to it as been "a bit Irish".


Where they wreckless with money and have you inherired that gene?
To stay within topic, the mess that has been created by a deregulated, free-market system, penetrates through overt generalization about ethnicity. Lazy Greeks, stubborn Poles. stupid. Irish. Property bubbles and the general crises etc are international.

wreckless?? Investing in property in Poland is not wreckless- you just have to know the market. And we do. so we are quite successful at it.

so it's not in the Genes?

Milky, just keep doing what you are doing- which seems to be nothing. We, on the other hand, will continue to buy property using the knowledge we have, and most importantly, we will continue to be successful at it which ultimately contributes to the well being and security of our family.

But for those who read on here who are interested in buying property in Poland- Do not listen to Milky. He has no idea what he is talking about. Has even tried to prove me wrong with articles my husband has contributed to.

Knowing Polish real estate is more than sitting behind a computer reading articles. Try working in the field, you might get a better understanding of what actually goes on here.

You cannot begin to imagine the chicanery of the real estate market in Polska, it is mind blowing.......

this is why I have said from the beginning that residential agents in this country are a joke. but, chicanery happens in every field- not exclusive to real estate.

Edited by a mod

Real estate to continue to drop for another 2 years or to 2002 levels before a bottom.

I doubt that very much

Even though Avalon, Harry and Pip claim there is no bubble. I am on the frothy stands.

2002 levels don't think so bud, Poland was just exciting a previous decline if you do your research.

Typically what goes up must come down. I have using charts for years. There is still a drop in prices to come but the bottom should be in late 2015 based upon current projections. They are pointing to 2002 levels but like everything else in life it could be lower or higher. We shall see. My work is not based on statisitics but charts.

That is the problem the world is run on stats but in reality it is fueled on emotion.

Couldn't agree more.

just to be clear- I am of the opinion that the prices are decreasing but will then level out- I don't think they are going to crash like a bubble bursting. But I have never denied that prices were dropping.

When prices rise very quick over a period of time outside of normal parameters people consider this to be a bubble as there is mopre buyers than sellers. Once the bubble or rise changes trend to a downwards motion one of two things can happen: If buyers exit enmass then we have a crash but if there are other factors such some mentioned in this thread such as the current owners holding prices/monthly rents while their flats etc are empty, then people who want to rent or buy begin to wait as they realize that the psychological bubble will eventually burst. This can happen gradually as we have been seeing since the top. A 30% haircut would clean the market up and allow it to start fresh.......so it is the after affects of the major rise or busrting of a bubble.

Everything levels out sooner or later, its boom and bust politics. If you are in for the long term you can never go wrong, having said that Polish real estate is not for widows and Children. It is high risk, not transparent and lacks liquidity.


Lets not forget that most foreign owned banks in Poland from 2003 fueled speculation by offering print out easy credit this what fueled price hikes in real estate.

I agree on that point.

Not a bubble, market goes up and down, the modern real estate market is still young in Polska, finding it's feet.

I was chatting to a qualified economist yesterday, I didn't say a thing to him about property bubbles. I was merely telling him about the rental market and noisy neighbours. He then dropped into the conversation that he bought his place in '03 at 3000/sq m (Wrocław) and added "A few months later it was up 25% then the bubble went to prices at double before it popped, although prices still seemed to climb after the banking crisis started, they only fell when people realised Europe was not immune and Poland wasn't either."

(Polish-born economist, 41, who works in finance in Wroc.)