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Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

8 Jul 2014  #1,771
:-) only if you are a real estate agent.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
8 Jul 2014  #1,772
That's a shame, because some of them here are really having a laugh and I only find out for sure when I see the KW number or deed. It would save a lot of time if my hunches that Pan Vendor is taking the urine could be verified officially before even having to talk to them.

Slight increase in the number of emails from developers offering discounts. Deals include cheap finishing and approx. 8 to 10% off the list prices (although one development deducted much more than that in S Wrocław). However, a quite awful block not far away has a banner sayind 'last 4 remaining', which by my calculations means 3/4 must have been sold.

Stunned at the flats which I recognise from Jan or Feb still on at the same prices, unsold of course.

Have also noticed 1 or 2 definitely slashed in price, however. I can't give exact figures but at least 2 have been reduced by over 10% in the past 2 weeks and 1 of them I think has been slashed by something in the ballpark of 20%. (Both secondary market, not bad areas.) That house I was after -- they have further slashed it although not to what I'd be able to afford.

On the flip side, I see some aspirational prices for new to market stuff, obviously the agents play a waiting game and humour the owners.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
14 Jul 2014  #1,773
Despite the fact the 1 or 2 places I have personally tried to negotiate on being very stubborn on price (they won't reduce by more than 3% despite in one case the thing being up for sale for several years!) I have noticed some prices coming down here and there. One that surprised me was on a good estate (near the one shown below) where the price was slashed 8% and still no buyer. Knowing what I know about that estate, they usually sell quite readily according to a friend who lives there, and I think he's honest about these things.

This one has just been reduced 10K. I am not completely certain as they all look similar after a while, but it might be the same one that was 30K more a couple of months ago. I also know for 100% fact that another on another friend's (less nice) estate was slashed from 340K to 280K and still has no buyer. A similar thing happened in a prestige street and prestige block earlier in the year, where a flat needing updating was slashed from its starting price by about 20-25% and that might also still be on the shelf, I don't know. That one, at its cheapest price, was not a bad buy for where it is. If I was looking for a flat, I'd have gone for it.

Norwegian 5 | 56
14 Jul 2014  #1,774
Cought in Limbo!

As long as we have (for polish people) a very low intrestrate we will not see any changes in this.

I agree with you from Wroclaw that its stuppid to just sit on the apartments without lowering the prices, but as long as the intrestrate is as low as 3,8 - 5% the owners will just take a smal hit for this.

I Would like to see a more normal intrestrate, and see if we could clean out some of this.

Inflation is the oil in a capitalistic based economy. That means we need the wibor up to 4 - 4,5% and a real inflation on 2,5 - 3%. Then the economy will be more in balance, and the pricemecanisme will work better!

In Krakow there is also a slowdown. I dont know is because of the season, or its more in general.

The two most important factors for the market the next 12 months will be the Euro-inflation numbers, and what the central bank in the us do the next 3-6 months.

I think we are very close to a second wave of deflation in the whole euro zone, but we are at the same time very close to a unstable inflation spiral imported from the US, Japan and maybe also China (structural/fundamental, and not based on moneyprinting).

If the ECB are able to turn it around and lead the EURO on a stabile inflation path, I think we can see a lot of good things happend in the whole EURO area, and therefor also in Poland. I am not very optimistic for this, and maybe call me old fashion - But what I am affraid of now is a scenario with a high imported inflation from both China, Japan (not so important) and from the US, and that Germany does not have enough power to lead the ECB in the right direction. Hyperinflation in the EURO area will be very painfull for countries like spain, greece, portugal and Italy, but for Poland it will be a disaster!

My advice to day, is to "stay away" if you are able to do so, and if you need to buy, buy, but not as a investment, but for living! Where to put the money during hyperinflation? I dont know. Spend it on things that make you happy! Apartments in Poland doesnt make you happy!
Dont gag me yo 7 | 156
14 Jul 2014  #1,775
I Would like to see a more normal intrestrate, and see if we could clean out some of this.

Yes me too,was a time one could live off interest rates now one has to make the money work.Infact still they give you 4% lokata in Poland but in USA you can get .2% or .5% for 5 years deposit .SUX!and 1% on $ in Poland.Better off buying even expensive property and sit on it for a while and eat the rents meantime.
Norwegian 5 | 56
14 Jul 2014  #1,776
10 years since I graduated, but if Im not wrong this "effect" is called extend and pretend.

Its ofcourse based on that banks can just prolong insolvent projects due to the low intrestrate, but the effect is the same for stubborn landlords (",
14 Jul 2014  #1,777
"effect" is called extend and pretend.

A significant amount of mortgage holders are CHF/PLN if the banks had to mark-to-market, a significant percentage would be insolvent, which is something the government doesn't want to deal with going into an election year.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
14 Jul 2014  #1,778
I agree with you from Wroclaw that its stuppid to just sit on the apartments without lowering the prices, but as long as the intrestrate is as low as 3,8 - 5% the owners will just take a smal hit for this.I Would like to see a more normal intrestrate, and see if we could clean out some of this.

I agree with every word in your post, and Warsawski's too, which is why they are probably extending and pretending, as you said.

I have been given a very cold shoulder here by agents (or perhaps owners) if I dare to offer even 5-10% off the asking price - - they almost always just cut me off like I'm some sort of freak, never hear from them again, finito. In the UK, 10% off for cash was the norm, if not more. And yes I am only buying for myself to live in not to rent or invest, with the thought in the back of my mind of part of the house being an office for my income (very small business, not doing well unfortunately, but no worse than expected so far).

I'll never complain about British estate agents or vendors again after the majority of my experiences here. Come back, F*xt**s & B**rs**w E**s, all is forgiven :D

One of the few agents to take some interest sent me the details of a place and presented it as good value. I immediately sent an email back saying it was too expensive by far. Just a few weeks later it is already reduced by 10% and in my opinion has another 10% to go before anyone is tempted. Slowly, some sellers are getting realistic, or at least in that approximate ballpark. This week for the first time I can recall, I saw a semi come on the market for 599K. It seems to have sold within days, so sellers should be aware they will probably sell if they are realistic. (IMHO the semi was approx. 20% over value anyway, but compared to others it looked cheap.)
20 Jul 2014  #1,779
My advice to day, is to "stay away" if you are able to do so, and if you need to buy, buy, but not as a investment, but for living! Where to put the money during hyperinflation? I dont know. Spend it on things that make you happy! Apartments in Poland doesnt make you happy!

Before we start talking about hyperinflation maybe we should see if the ECB will start QE and if there will be a default in the Portuguese banking system. The USA and UK are showing positive numbers, the question is what will Euro-land do next?

It certainly is on a knifes edges once again.
Norwegian 5 | 56
21 Jul 2014  #1,780
Before we start talking about hyperinflation maybe we should see if the ECB will start QE


When I talk about hyperinflation, keep in mind that I maybe give it a 5-10% chanse to happend. Most likly we will not be facing this. But if it happends there will be a situation that is close to 100% new for both policy makers and economist (centralbanks).

Integrated economic world, with hyperinflation in markets like Japan, Eurozone and in the US.

I would not like to be long in something that I will not be able to get rid of in very short time, if this things start!
21 Jul 2014  #1,781
I would not like to be long in something that I will not be able to get rid of in very short time, if this things start!

There is no liquidity in Polish real estate.

I expect the USA and UK will start to increase interest rates at the end of 2014 Poland will follow in 2015 Q1.
Norwegian 5 | 56
21 Jul 2014  #1,782
I expect the USA and UK will start to increase interest rates at the end of 2014 Poland will follow in 2015 Q1.

UK should start now. I can not understand why they are waiting. A strong pound is ofcourse not good for the export, but its much better to take it 3 month to early then 3 months to late and always be one step behind the market!

US - Thats a diff story, since the flexibility in the job-market is much better. I can see the rate start to be moved a bit later, but not before there is a real pressure on the wages. I think we must see the unenployment rate dropping to 5,5 - 6% before this pressure will start!

The dark horse (as always) is China. Problems in china and the imported inflation go up all over the world. This inflation can not be controlled in normal terms with the intresterate. (at least it take much longer time... Marsahl Lerner effect).

Imported inflation from China (at least pressure from this), pluss with a lot of more money sent into the market (atm only from Japan and US), and we have a good mix!
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
23 Jul 2014  #1,783
Nice part of Wrocław, Biskupin. Noticing some flats having a gentle drop in price over the past 3 or 4 weeks. One that even I was thinking about (I really only want a house!) has reduced by just under 2% in the past week having been reduced by something like 8% in the past few months. I don't know if it's the summer slowdown or a dawning of realism, but this is what I am seeing more of at the moment. The quite cheap house that I thought had sold has not sold, btw, it's been relisted.

A flat seems to have sold on a supposedly good estate near me -- it had been for sale for must be over a year. The builders are now in there which is why I think it sold, so it could be that it was just sold cheaply. The for sale banner has of course gone.

that another on another friend's (less nice) estate was slashed from 340K to 280K and still has no buyer

This one has now gone back up in price to 310K. I don't know if it's just with some agents or all. Perhaps the 280K was attracting offers of 250K, and so they put the price back up.
frd 7 | 1,399
25 Jul 2014  #1,784
I really like the new flats at ogrody hallera in Wroclaw.. Really good flat layout and a perfect location. I've notice many apartment projects being build in Krzyki the thing is each is in different colour and shape it creates a real cacophony and chaos for the eyes, especially cause they are usually built 3 meters from one another. The prices vary as well but the further away along the Krzycka the worse the public transport and the surrounding and so many building with max size under 60 sq meters.. Ridiculous.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
27 Jul 2014  #1,785
Are offices and shops falling in price too? Nice area, down from 345K to 315K (Krzyki).

One or two cheaper houses seem to be coming on to the market with the more expensive stuff sticking for absolutely ages. Like years.

In the last few days, an apartment in a smart area (smart duplex flat too, 80m2) dropped from 420 tys to 399 tys. It had been at 420 tys for maybe 4 months. It came to my attention as near an acquaintance's place.

Having said that, some houses (and probably flats too) are still coming on for ahem aspirational prices.

I don't know if it's a summer slump or an acceleration of price cuts, but seems to me that more and more flats are looking less expensive. If I was in the market for one, I'd start to pay more attention. I couldn't be 100% sure but I think I'm seeing even never-before-occupied (no pcc) new flats on estates that were built 1 or 2 years ago coming on for 10-15% less than I recall a few months ago. 60-65m2 size new flats at prices that I don't remember seeing before in the good parts of Wroc. I shall try to find more definite evidence in case it's just a blip for the holiday period.

Another 1 or 2 reductions, and these are without me paying attention, so there could be more. Flat on a good estate - started life up for sale at 365 000 about 6 months ago. Dropped to 350 then 330 over the months. About 2 weeks ago down to 325. Since yesterday 315. I am not 100% sure but this could be the same flat that was 399K last year. It's certainly on the same osiedle.

Quite incredibly, a flat that was around 320 or 330 tys. earlier this year is now 260 tys. and marked as price negotiable (Oporów, reasonable estate). Although some sellers are continuing to ask prices that seem comical, there seems to be a growing number of very realistic prices. It either suggests imminent capitulation by sellers or a severe summer slump. I don't know which it is. I can tell you the house I was hoping to buy wouldn't reduce for me, but they may be regretting that decision by now.

I know for 100% fact of another flat which started life at 360 tys. in May. It then dropped to 330 tys. by July. Now 300 tys (since yesterday). It was over-priced at 360 tys, it's the right price now pretty much. It's the fastest drop of 20% that I have seen although not monitoring flats that much as trying to buy a house. Anyone who wants details of these reductions can PM me. I have not posted links because mods may prefer sellers' blushes spared.

Curiously, seeing the same flats going on with new agents for typically 2 or 3% more but staying at the old price with the old agent who continues to advertise. Seeing quite a few of these. House I offered on and was rejected, still for sale and also for rent. Some properties coming to market at high prices -- they should look next door and see similar size homes that have not sold in months or years at lower prices. One of the new developments is renting out many of its flats (slightly expensive rents it must be said) because they couldn't sell enough of them. Looking around that area, the devs must be very sure of demand, the sheer quantity of flats built on various estates by various devs. But, in the meantime, some are renting them out, perhaps er just a small cashflow problem? Prestige very expensive flat in Krzyki has just been put on the market by its owner. That may speak volumes. Interesting times.
Ziemowit 12 | 3,358
18 Aug 2014  #1,786
Today's Rzeczpospolita says the mean price of 1 sq meter of a flat on offer in Wrocław has gone up from 5,42 K in July 2013 to 5,75 K in July of this year (data based on, metrohouse and expander). According to your posts, however, prices tend to go down in Wrocław, however. What is your comment to such data?

This same tendency has been shown for a few other cities, including Kraków, Poznań, Gdańsk, Gdynia, with Warszawa and Sopot on top of the list (Warsaw: 7,4 to 7,62 tys; Sopot: 8,4 K to 8,8 K)
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
18 Aug 2014  #1,787
Today's Rzeczpospolita says the mean price of 1 sq meter of a flat on offer in Wrocław has gone up from 5,42 K in July 2013 to 5,75 K in July of this year (data based on, metrohouse and expander). According to your posts, however, prices tend to go down in Wrocław, however. What is your comment to such data?

If they are selling prices I am a bit surprised but I don't follow flats mega closely. But from checking once a week or so it seems many are not selling, unless the agents are relisting automatically and a phone call to them reveals they're sold. Locally, devs have dropped and maybe slashed prices, and some are having to let.
cms 9 | 1,287
19 Aug 2014  #1,788
One obvious comment is that median is a far better measure than mean in something like apartments
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
19 Aug 2014  #1,789
Had an in-depth look at flats on the second-hand (secondary as it's known here) market. Although I saw some that have increased their asking prices by a couple of %, I saw far more where the price can be traced using Google or Trovit etc and 5% reductions over the past month or so seem common (reductions in asking price, I don't know what they sold for). There is also a trend towards renting an unsold flat to tenants, unsurprisingly. The impression I come away with after 4 hours of checking 40 pages of flats on the s/m is that some are pricing optimistically (for example in the same block in S Wroc and almost the same size, asking prices can be 15% apart and in my opinion the inferior one in that example is the higher priced one). I think the flats where they drop the price usually sell, but not always. I know of one where the price was dropped over 20% over 3 months and still no buyers are rushing for it. None of this really surprises me because although some people tell me Polish wages have risen, they still seem modest compared to the price of many apartments. Poland is not alone in this, of course. However, judging by how many flats are being built in S Wroc, block after block, hundreds if not thousands of new units, they must be expecting a surge of demand from somewhere at some point. Some developers are offering good discounts now, and when that's failing to work they're renting the flats out with basic furniture. Anyone looking to rent in Wroc should contact me and I can put you in touch with an agent where you get charged no commission and can rent from the developer via an agent. They're not very cheap but they're not actually expensive either. (No, I won't make a penny in the deal, it's merely altruism believe it or not!)

or example in the same block in S Wroc and almost the same size, asking prices can be 15% apart and in my opinion the inferior one in that example is the higher priced one

Having looked into that, it transpires Ag the Agent was telling porkie pies about the cheaper flat's location - for it is not in the street she said, but down the road. The ad did not say ok. it said very definitely that street and that street only has one (quite prestige) block. So, the above comment I made is null but I was basing it on what I read.

Somewhat amusingly, an ad for a flat in a part of S Wroc says the estate is holding its value and prices. What that ad does not mention or acknowledge surprise surprise is that the very same flat was over 10% more in price just a few months ago. Irony there, I'd have thought.

Unless I'm going loopy, this graph shows prices down in this good part of Wrocław

However, other graphs show less of a drop for different neighbourhoods.

Agents must have buyers though, because when my Polish speaking friend leaves messages for agents to contact me about buying something, none phone back if the place is sold. You'd think they'd want to get their hooks into someone who is buying if buyers are in short supply. So perhaps buyers are not in short supply, because agents take very little interest in keeping in touch with me. If I were selling, I'd be very careful about who I choose as my agent if they let buyers slip through their fingers.

Prestige new estate S Wroc: dev has slashed prices from (for example) 510 tys to 445 tys. I won't post a link unless mods say OK.

Dev nearby also reduced flats by a considerable figure and has put some on for rental.
That said, prices for yet another new but off-plan dev up the road from there are rather ambitious (2015 completion).

This may be of little relevance to me or most readers here, but anyway: a very large and prestigious new flat in one of the best streets, over 200m2, 1,6 million zł, still sitting unsold since 2010. And there aren't many as nice as that one, they're quite a rare beast in that street and that size. There are 2 of that size unsold in the same building of probably just 4 flats, similar prices. (However, the 100m2 approx. new flats on some S Wroc estates seem to be getting reserved early, I assume either for large families or businesses.)

Just checked a more normal estate in a reasonable part of S Wroc.

Between mid 2012 and early last year, flats on the same estate (same street on the same estate too) dropped from 4990 per m2 to 4200 per m2 for very similar sizes (100m2). The upshot is that one could buy a 9m2 bigger flat a year later in the same good condition as the other one but for 10% less if the asking price was paid in both cases. Final selling prices are of course unknown (they are both sold).

Looking at smaller flats now on the same estate, it would seem prices have fallen about 5% in 10 months.

However, looking at flats coming to market now, asking prices often seem to be rising compared to existing stock.

Some weeks ago I mentioned a cheap house. It's still available, and in my view good value compared to most flats. The area it's in isn't the best but fair play to the seller because they have priced it to sell. There are a few more sellers doing that now, slowly getting real. Bit by bit.
28 Aug 2014  #1,790
There are a few more sellers doing that now, slowly getting real. Bit by bit.

No more money to be made by the foreign gamblers on the estate market in Poland. I guess there were few fortunes made and quite a few good returns,
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
28 Aug 2014  #1,791
No more money to be made by the foreign gamblers on the estate market in Poland.

There certainly are or were, from anecdotes I heard, foreign buyers coming in. One development, now only has 4 flats remaining from 40. It took over 2 years to sell them, however, perhaps longer.

Agents here tend to be disinterested however when they hear from me, which suggests they have sufficient buyers at the cheaper end of the market. If prices are falling, as they seem to be, maybe that pick up in trade is to be expected.

This is probably going to be my last post on this for some time, but prices seem to continue to be revised downwards. I am not tracking things scientifically but I come across a lot of ads which say 'nowa cena xZ£' and then if one also checks the price in the price field the price in the price field is even lower than the 'nowa cena' price, typically by a couple of %. It does also seem that lots has been for sale for a long time. Newer listings tend to generally have asking prices which seem fanciful. I was surprised to see one flat slashed in price by 20% over the space of 2 months, 10% of that over the last 2 weeks. It's still for sale. However, some new developments yet to be built are asking surprisingly high prices.
29 Aug 2014  #1,792
I have a theory why developers of un built property advertise at such high levels. Its because the property web sites take those figures to calculate the average price for the area. A empty shell in my area of Krakow increased the average by 50% for the several years its stood waiting to finish.

When it is finished he can claim its cheap compared to the area.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
29 Aug 2014  #1,793
Thanks for posting.
FWIW locally here the larger new flats (80m2 plus) seem to go first, and 4-roomers are of course more popular than 3. Some of the devs are letting unsold units and over the last 2 weeks these were snapped up (18 in one building). They had been unlet for months before. They didn't drop the advertised rent, and the furnishings are basic, not even an oven in the kitchens but washing machines were supplied. All18 have now let. The landlord is of course the dev, and maybe all the tenants are students. Anecdotally am hearing students are already reserving or taking rentals.
6 Sep 2014  #1,794
What is the price per sq meter for apartments in Wroclaw in the Biskupin area and what do you think the price should be?
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
16 Sep 2014  #1,795
Looks like there's some new found optimism among some sellers. I heard last week that a friend of a friend lost a flat of around 300 000 -- someone offered more money and the agreement was torn up by the seller.

Although I'm seeing quite a few flats and houses at lower prices (primarily the ones that have been for sale for a while) I am also seeing some obvious optimism in some sellers. Recently a seller told me to shove my offer up my d**a just a few days after agreeing a price with me. It's not been sold to anyone else, but they obviously now think it will be. So, Perhaps the Poland government is introducing new schemes, more MDM or something, to encourage this optimism? Or maybe there's hope of an interest rate cut in response to deflation?

Whatever the reason, I wasn't hugely surprised to find this rather dramatic revision upwards in a flat's asking price over just a few months:

Flat S Wroc:
April asking price 600K
Now, asking price 850K
(if you doubt it's the same flat, just check the tiles in the bathroom and then the art on the wall in the bathroom to the right of the washing machine)

What's that, nearly 50% more on the asking (not sold) price in just a few months...?

Although am still seeing ads declaring 'new' (ie lower) prices on some flats and possibly houses, recently there are some very ambitious prices in new listings. Would seem to be some increases, many of which seem almost absurd. I can only guess that the newspapers are pumping out rising price stories or the credit taps are on full. Perhaps some of the properties are owned by Poles in Eire, which is apparently booming with serious growth, according to news reports. I guess if you're living in a booming economy, you're tempted to superimpose that on the apartment/house that you want to sell back home? I am of course a mere amateur, purely guessing and merely offer that as one possible explanation, if the newspapers and home [Poland] economic 'news' are not the obvious catalyst.

It is clear, however, that Wroclaw seems much busier than ever before. The buzz has got louder, although how widely inclusive that is may be open to question. I am not a beneficiary of that buzz myself, sadly.

And on the other hand, the last new (primary) apartment on a quality development is still sticking and unsold despite a cut in price of something like 12% in the past 3 weeks, I am reliably informed. I won't say where but in a good part of town where some of the properties are for sale for higher prices on the same estate or adjacent (but I think the same developer built them and some are now for sale on the secondary market).

So, I think I have to concede I don't really know what's going on! Mixed messages from the market and perhaps there are patches of activity with a bounce here or there due to optimism based on something or the other. Whether these are translating to sales I don't know. I can say the agents seem busy somewhere and often too busy to help with enquries. Make of that what you will. It could be they are selling lots or it could be they are delivering parcels. I can't come to any conclusions now, there are so many conflicting signs.

When I go past one of the main new estates in S Wrocław at night, most of the lights seem to be off, suggesting a low occupancy rate. Yet the agents say they let 18 flats there with none available now, and prices reduced on the remaining 'few' flats. So, who has bought but not moved in? These flats have supposedly been mostly all sold for many months now, perhaps 6 Yet drive past and almost every window (about 95%) is dark. Seems a bit inconsistent with the idea of them being sold. Average prices 350 tys. 200 flats or more.

Another new estate nearby, all flats are definitely sold. Average price 300 tys. 45 flats.

Another new estate in Partynice, 7 or 8 flats still unsold out of 500 flats, 1-2 years after completion. Average price 350 tys.

Another estate on the edge of S Wrocław not far from Partynice, and here all but 5 of over 100 houses are apparently sold. Average prices 800 tys.

It could be that Poland's government subsidies for buyers of new homes is having a positive effect on some flats within the size constraint, yet I think houses are outside of the subsidy, and they are still apparently mostly sold at the estate above.

Agents are increasingly simply failing to phone back when my Polish speaking friend tries to make appointments to view homes. This indifference to buyers would, if sellers were keen to sell, be very bad news for sellers. But of course it would seem to suggest that buyers are increasingly less important, would it not? These are different agents that I've not previously dealt with so cannot say they are tired of showing me places! Indifference and agents not bothering is far from unusual here.

It's likely a mixed picture, with some properties coming to market at what might be increased prices. Others reduced in price after not selling. One flat that I can't help but notice was 5% lower 18 months ago before rising 5%, then reduced to that price again 2 months back, and now 5% higher again. Still unsold.

This house has risen in asking price over the last 14 months (from 799 tys to 833 tys)
2013 approx. Q3 799 000
2014 Sept 833 000 although now it might be 0% buyer fee

0% prowizji od kupującego

and billed as 'negotiable' of course. There is some movement towards not charging buyers a commission fee but it's still in its infancy in Wrocław. (Most agents still try to charge 1-2% and sometimes more.)

Same flat
Now 375 tys
Different agent 407 tys1 week ago

Doubt it's the same flat? Just check the white kitchen cupboard doors, the big silver-coloured worktop object that looks like a large football trophy, and of course the description and size. It's definitely the same flat. I have seen prices go down and then back up in a matter of weeks before, perhaps it's for a short period when sellers have found somewhere else and are trying to secure the other place they want to buy. Once the other purchase is lost the price may revert back up. Just a theory, could be wrong.
jon357 64 | 14,382
24 Sep 2014  #1,796
I have seen prices go down and then back up in a matter of weeks before

To be fair, valuing flats isn't an exact science and real estate is one of the least trustworthy trades going (I won't call it a profession). That kind of variable between agents is well within the range of normal. Some fix it low to get a quick sale (all agents want this so they can move on to the next victim) and others make wild promises to the vendors. All try to talk up some dump as much as they can.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
24 Sep 2014  #1,797
Almost all seem so disinterested, though, that I can only assume BNing is a mere hobby for them or that they have lots of other deals going through to make ends meet. What I have also noticed is that agents will keep listing and updating houses and flats for many months. And it's only when I enquire that they discover the flat or house is sold or rented out when they actually contact the vendor. So, if my random choices are anything to go by, a number of the ads are invalid even if recently (and by recently I mean the last week or so) updated or relisted. I am currently pessimistic about the chance of buying something, and more or less intend to continue to rent (which I don't like at all but seems literally no other option in my circumstances). At least when each rental turns out to have noisy people all around, I can at least move quite easily. There's a lot to be said for that!

This one, in a prestige road in a good area called Borek, seems to be down from 560 tys to 479 tys, if you check the difference between the price in the text and the headline price.

If it's a mere marketing technique to make something look cheap I'd be surprised. The price is probably not expensive by comparison if it's where I think that flat is. It might even be cheap compared to others nearby of that size. If I were in the market for a flat, I'd probably have a look at it because they might even take 450. Considering houses are well over 1.2 million in that vicinity (often much more), it's realistically priced at the moment even when taking into account a bit of modernising, 2% buying tax and all the fees. There are flats in newer blocks miles away at that price which are inconveniently situated and full of screaming kids to disturb any peace, making this look a very reasonable deal in my experience as an observer if it is where the ad says and there are no hidden drawbacks.

Here's an interesting one:

Flat for sale at 370 tys earlier this year.
Price dropped to 350 tys then most recently 340 tys.
I noted from my own research the flat was in the hands of the debt collector's office last month or earlier this month (I can't remember exactly).

All this time, the owner-occupier or tenant is living in the flat.
The same flat is now back on the market at 390 tys.

Seems strange. Or it could be that some estate agents get business by promising higher sums, as Jon said. But if it didn't sell at 340 tys...

This won't come as news to some, but the EU is, it seems, about to restrict some aspects of loans which are used by people who want to buy flats or houses to rent out. "Buy to let" mortgages have caused some problems in the UK, as landlords have increasingly bought properties for investment or pension purposes. This has caused something of a shortage of homes to buy in some regions. I imagine the same is true to some extent here in Poland although the yield (the return on capital employed) is much lower than in the UK from what I can tell, plus of course Poland starts taxing at approx US$1000 (US$1K or US$1 tys.) and the UK starts taxing at a much more generous US$17K or something like that. Thus, Poland's landlords get less rent money per zloty and have to pay tax on that rent much sooner. Nevertheless, a glance at the listings on Gumtree or similar shows that there are a lot of rentals available and many BN (estate agent) ads boast "ideal for investment/to rent out" or words to that effect. This is an echo of what's happened in the UK where unsold property gets rented out and others are bought and rented out as an alternative to low interest rates in banks or because BTL mortgages are too freely written.

Recently, one of the UK's biggest private landlords, with a portfolio of many properties in Kent, has made noises about selling up. This might be because of his lender's mortgage book being sold off, or it might be because the property market has peaked and could (at long last) deflate with the removal of certain crutches such as Buy To Let (it may be true that the government there is perhaps introducing another scheme called Rent To Buy, by the way) and stricter loan criteria being applied.

It'll be interesting to see if this EU proposal affects things in Poland too, where there are rentals available due to yield seeking investors and also sellers who can't sell and choose to rent out instead.

EU BTL news

Hard to stifle the laughter as I see some of the prices of fresh-to-market secondary flats in some areas. The vendors or agents seem to be on another planet or off their heads on various substances. Some of the most hilarious prices are from vendors directly, obviously as no agent wanted to bother.

On the flip side, more and more of the discrepancies in price (especially of houses) when the large font headline price is lower than the price in the text. Saw another couple of large discrepancies over the weekend, with the headline price being 8 and 12% lower than the price in the text. How long it took for the seller to drop the price I don't know.

I am guessing that newspapers are talking prices up, but it's not turning into reality for all. One of the things I see here that is just like the UK is sellers renting places out while keeping asking prices high if anyone wants to buy the place. This allows sellers to sit out slumps and wait for the market to catch up with their optimistic pricing. I suppose this will pay off for some, eventually.

I forgot to add, that it does however look for sure like apartment rents have increased quite a bit, maybe 15 or 20%. This may be seasonal, I am not sure. I was chatting to a young Polish man yesterday and he told me Wrocław has seen the arrival of a significant number of foreign workers by which he explained that he meant from other parts of Europe including Spain and Italy. I would add that it also has a number from Korea, India and parts of Africa. I have spoken with them outside their offices and at restaurants - it seems most are on contracts of 6 months to 2 years and probably earning enough to live comfortably. I would have thought wages here are a lot lower than Spain or Italy but perhaps work is harder to find there, I don't know.

I was shown around a quite smart flat today, and was almost tempted to make an offer and perhaps buy it despite the fact I really want a house.

However, a quick check using Google shows that it was 15% more expensive in December 2013. So, I'm guessing they'd not want to come down another 10% to where I'd be comfortable. The only thing is, since December or whenever the photos were taken, they've removed some of the light fittings and the flat somehow looks somewhat shabbier. I can only guess the photos were either taken well before December or there was quite a rough tenant living there for some months in the interim.

En passant looking at some of the flats advertised directly by sellers - noticed at least 2 where the price has been reduced in the past 2 weeks by 3 to 5%, along with the removal of some photos from their ads and the addition of new ones. This does not suggest a stampede of buyers, despite the agents' couldn't give a fig attitude to us buyers a lot of the time.

I also have 1 more theory to throw out there for feedback: if the number of direct sellers increases it either means agents don't want to accept places at the seller's unrealistic price, or it means sellers are more optimistic about selling and so think they don't need an agent? Of course, it could also be said that sellers just mucking about and only testing the water (had this done to me twice) use an agent because it's then just the agent who has the expense and time wasted, not the seller.
1 Oct 2014  #1,798
InWroclaw, how many unsold apartments do you have here in Poland?

You talk, act and write exactly like one of those desperate developers/investors
who always claim that the real estate market will just skyrocket up...

Also, I do not understand how the moderators let you post the same
message one hundred times here... :/
Ziemowit 12 | 3,358
1 Oct 2014  #1,799
InWroclaw, how many unsold apartments do you have here in Poland?

That's an interesting question! Reading his posts, albeit vaguely, I had an impression that he is trying to buy an appartment (or a house) for himself.
jon357 64 | 14,382
1 Oct 2014  #1,800
one of those desperate developers/investors

The guy is looking to buy one rather than to sell plenty, and seems quite frustrated (as do many) with the unusual real estate market in PL.

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