Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

And the world will end? maybe, sometime, in the future!!!

You are like a duracell battery, you go on, and on and on and on................

that's a compliment.

Most posts that I've read seem to focus on new housing. What's the state of kamienicas?

I'm afraid I bought an old fixer-upper four years ago and paid too much. I'm sure it's worth less than I paid for it, but students rent it and the mortgage stays paid every month. I am in the Middle East and don't plan on moving back to Poland, contrary to what I planned before I went to the ME. The location is great (Poznan - ul. Swietego Wojciecha) and the building is slowly being renovated, so I have hope to gain some ground back.

Does anyone hazard a prediction of the future of kamienicas?

Give us the details...

I am potentially thinking of buying into the market just to have a place in Warsaw. If an apartment is good enough then it doesn't really matter if it is a few percent overpriced, because surely good quality places must retain a premium.

Having said that, I don't really want to rent to students. I'm also a bit worried about tax implications.

Sorry if it seemed like my post was off topic before - I haven't been able to find a decent website to check out a decent sample of whats currently of offer in the market. I've looked at "tabelaofert.com" but that just looks like a developers website dressed up as a real estate site, and the story that they tell on that website doesn't reflect what posters here seem to be saying about the market!

If its over priced you will not get as higher return on it and will lose money when you sell it. 'retain a premium'... what does that mean?

The tax implications are that if you don't declare it they can charge you double when they catch you and they check real estate purchases and the sources of the money There were some articles here about it yesterday

podatki.gazetaprawna.pl

Sorry, incomplete sentence: I meant to ask whether high quality (and not necessarily the most luxurious, or best located) properties tend to not be affected by falling prices as much as the market average? It's the same thing where I'm living at the moment: the house market is very sluggish, but so little good real estate is offered for sale that any that is goes for a very good price.


Of course, the same rules apply to any overpriced asset. I guess what I was wondering is if I would get something meeting my criteria for the price I am willing to pay, not as an investment as such but more to put some roots down. The biggest question I have is what sort of land taxes/city taxes/oplaty administracyjne/opłat budowlanych I would have to pay on an ongoing basis even as freehold owner?

//Edit

Thanks for the link, but it doesn't work

No idea,

gazetaprawna.pl - try clicking on the Tax link (Podatki)

The price per metre might be a medium but it is an unrealistic price per meter when you actually try to bid on a unit. They are actually closer to 8000-9000 per metre in center Krakow.

Janek

What a difference 10 days have made, only down 10%. Your predictions are as good as Milky's

You see!!!

Silence, thats all you get from these pratts. They slam down Poland and ignore the economies of the rest of the world. Your property today is worth exactly what you think, or whatever somebody will pay. You do not have to sell if you do not want too. Watch the worlds shares turn into a lottery. Your home/property, exists and will still be there in 10 years time. So, you have a mortgage in CHF and the repayments are hurting. Its going to hurt a lot more if you rent and there is no money coming in!! at least your landlord will look for the next tenant, whereas the bank will only be looking at the bottom figure. Better something than nothing.

The socialist world is a fantasy. Everybody is equal but in reality it can never work this way. The rich have no problem with the poor working hard and catching up. What they object to is the poor wanting to share the wealth without even trying.

People like Milky, CMS, Peterweg etc; will always try and run down Poland. Its not the Poland they want, they wish for a communist system, whereby, they are given everything at the expense of others. Read their posts, if you disagree with them you are called a "Thatcherite" or a neo-com liberal. Everyone is wrong except them and the admin on this forum, allows them to libel anyone that disagrees with them, so say, in the cause of "Free speech"

The serious members of this forum have tried to back up their posts with "facts". The admin seem quite happy to allow the "trolls and spammers"to post what they wish.

I have never pretended to know everything about what happens in this world. My experience is limited to nearly 60 years of life and 38 years in the construction industry.

Look at the advice from CMS to Pip (27-07-20110), invest in German stocks instead of Polish property. The stock market has collapsed in the last 10 days. Has your house/apartment lost the same value in that time?. Genuine people are looking for advice/help which is what I thought this forum was about. I have never promoted my own projects on this forum, only tried to advise people who were thinking of moving here. Admin knows that "Polsky, Milky" etc are posts by the same people, they have admitted as much and yet they do "nothing" about this. What is the point of a forum that restricts, common sense and allows flagerent lies?.There is no problem with a sensible debate, but, that is not allowed to happen here.

God bless all the people who wish to settle/re-settle in Poland. If you want advice, look somewhere else. You will not find any sensible information here.

Nice rant avalon. Are you trying to justify property as an investment now? Given up on the 'roof over your head'?

Personally I think property is a good thing, as long are you can get an income from it. Problem is that wages and prices have to be related for that to be viable, otherwise you are gambling on the availability of credit from banks. Banks are constrained in their lending by their share prices as they use it in their core capital ratio's.

So if German share prices fall, so to will Polish apartments prices. Its contagious.

Nobody knows where the safe haven for your money is. Gold is one. I'd go for oil/food, which would be oil shares and farmland and people need somewhere to live, even in the worst of times - so cheap property is probably safe.

I take it "reading and understanding" is not one of your strong points. Where in my post did I say that property was an investment?. I merely pointed out that anyone following the advice of CMS would have lost 10% in the last few days, whereas, property in Poland has not decreased by that amount in the same period.


Fall? crash? when? 2011, 2012, 2050? Its a simple questiion, how come you and Milky find it impossible to answer?.

Yes - they are a reliable bet, at least in Poznan. It's new builds that have been doing badly - I think people started to realise that many of them were built cheaply and badly, especially in the early 90's and the mid-late 2000's. But Kamienicas will always have appeal - the high ceilings, the location - you won't do badly to hang onto it. The only issue with them is often the people living there - but it doesn't discourage people from buying them.

The real people who got hurt in Poland are the ones who bought off-plan developments when not being in Poland in anticipation of a "quick buck" - and quite frankly, they deserved it. There's no sign of a crash coming in Poland - prices are stable in the big cities.


Looks like, as always, you were right :)

yes exactly, basic logic.


not sure of the exact date but it will begin around 3pm.


The market is stagnant and prices are going down everywhere since 2007. Stable prices lol, there's a world recession.

Its happening in future, the world economy is tanking for the next few years. I expect the recovery to take hold when world debt is paid off. Three years at least, maybe five or even eight years. So avoid buying property until them, prices will depreciate.

That the answer you were looking for?

As it is obvious that such abuse of confidence is being allowed on this forum and is so aptly explained by the principle of "free speech", as long as it does not violate the rules of the forum [and I don't really know if it does], Admin is OK.


Off they go with their clever investments! But honestly, people that Avalon mentions above know nothing about the stock market in Germany, neither do they know anything about the property market in Poland.

I'm happy with this answer.


So, Admin, am I posting under different names????or am I the one person??

cash in australian banks.

currently getting over 5% on my cash balance which is out performing my stocks and managed funds.


thats crap.

property prices in australia have sky rocketed from 2007 to 2010. currently they're stagnating, but there is no huge drop of say, even 10%.

I have no idea who 'they' are, but don't tar me with the same brush. I would not buy shares, well possibly in the next few weeks when the market is going to hit a historic bottom.


Actually, he said invest in hundreds of other things first, rather than Polish property.

You cannot make a judgment on a instantaneous share price to justify your point of view, next week prices maybe up 10%. Next year you can be certain of the trend in property. In a few the trend will reverse and it will be a no brainer.

Everywhere as in 'Poland'.

Milky and yourself have both stated that property prices in Poland have "crashed" and are yet to fall further. In Milky's case, he has been saying this since 2009 and it has still not happened. Most people who are wrong would usually feel a little foolish by now. Not Milky, to him, everyone that disagrees talks "crap", Poland is "crap", wages are "crap", life is "crap". I wonder if he realises that his predictions and opinions are "crap"

I did not say crashed,I said they are 'stagnant' and going down.

"The prices are going to crash and its going to be worse than Ireland" Milky, Dec 3rd,2009

Any more lies?

grammar lesson
'have crashed' is different to 'going to' or 'will'.
The prices are stagnant or going down.

Either way your statement/prediction was wrong. You can nit-pick and twist and turn all you like but at the end of the day, you talk bol***ks and you are not man enough to admit it.

please keep it civil

Prices have fallen 10% and inflation is near 5%. How is that not a fall in prices,. Please explain.


I have never said anything about a crash either


Ok, to you the difference between rising prices and falling 15% per year is 'nit picking'.

To everyone else (who arn't obviously desperate to sell property) its a big 'Don't buy' signal.

Big time.

"The article is dated, 1st August 2011.

So this is in addition to the previous 10%, add on two years of around 5% inflation and you have 30% fall from peak.

Continuing falling prices constitutes a crash, so its new".

Your post # 158, correct? I am not calling you a lliar, you probably just forgot.

I did.
I would say a fall is of 15% per year would constitute a crash, but thats something you dispute.

What would you call -15% per year? steady? stable? gentle decline?

Whatever, lets see what this non-crash looks like after a few years of the same falls.

Bit bizarre being ranted at for not being glued to my computer on a Sunday night. I did a few other things - put the kids to bed, watched telly, had a beer with my in laws.

Yes the stock market in Germany has fallen by now 15% but I'm willing to measure my prediction over 1 year, 3 years, 10 years or 20 years. Somewhere here you still have my prediction made in 2010 that Polish property prices would be down 30% by the opening game of Euro 2012 and I'm prepared to stick with that and meet you outside the stadium with a bottle of good scotch if I am wrong.

I dont think I have ever slagged Poland off in economic terms - maybe on specific issues like the infrastructure or debt or bureaucracy but in general I'm positive about the place and with a few ups and downs have made a good living over here for 10 years.

Regarding Ziemowits point - I worked for 3 years in Germany with many listed companies in a financial role so I do have some knowledge. On the Polish property point then I have 3 properties here and rent another one (because I dont want to buy !). The last one I bought was in 2006 so maybe I have missed a trick - time will tell.

And I am certainly no socialist !

A crucial part of my point was that Polish property is illiquid at the moment. If German shares start to fall then you can sell them for small brokerage fee and with only mild tax consequences. Or you can sell SOME of them and keep the others. With a flat you cannot sell the kitchen and keep the living room and when you sell it you absorb lots of time and costs.

The other thing nobody has mentioned is that if like many expats you are paid in Euro then a Zloty denominated house has lost 4% of its value in the last 12 days and if you are unwise enough to have Swiss Franc mortgage then the cost of the house has just gone up 10%.

Certainly the events of recent days will not be positive for the Polish housing market - the Polish stock market has seen heavier falls of circa 18%, the falling zloty will drive inflation and possibly interest rates and the threats to big Polish mortgage lenders like Unicredit and Millennium will result in more difficulty for Polish punters to get credit.

On Kamienicas then a good question - they are well built and you will always find people who want to live close to town but quite a few town centers are moving their office space and even restaurants and bars into other areas but the lack of parking and the amount of idiots in hoodies walking around is always going to deter families and I think the DINKY demographic is not so strong in Poland as it is in the West. I think with underground parking and the whole kamienica being renovated then they might work well.