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Poland's apartment prices continue to fall


poland_  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1171
Homes are still selling- there is still residential construction--this can't be disputed.

Pip, there are still homes selling in Poland, there were also apartments/houses selling in the USA during peak of the real estate crash 2008-2009. Real estate/land will also will always sell dependent on price. The main problem with Polish real estate circa 2012 is liquidity, Warsaw or any of Poland's main cities can not be compared to the UK, Canada or Austraila, although it has the possibility in the future to go further south.

With regards to the sales dropping- also a result of the mass purchases of 2007-2009. Poles tend to buy a home and live in it forever- and then they give it to a relative. The housing ladder doesn't apply here.

Three points here Pip,

1. In the 80's and 90's Poles built their own homes to house two or three generations. There were many Poles who had worked in the UK or USA bringing money back and flipping apartments before they had been built as there was a shortage of new build before 2,000.

2. With the introduction of easy money in 2004/5 onwards in Warsaw it was easy to buy as long as you had a decent job, most professionals either bought 1,2,3 or 4 apartments with the intention of reselling or renting.

3.The older generation built homes to live in long term, the younger generation firmly got themselves on the resale ladder. I would estimate that at least 85% of the people I know in Warsaw have at least three properties ( houses or apartments) many without mortgages, although they are asset rich, they are cash poor, as they are not prepared to sell for less that what they believe the property is worth, so they will sit and wait.
Harry  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1172
sales are down 23%.

Really? I don't suppose you could link to a source which confirms that, could you? I somehow doubt it.
milky  13 | 1656  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1173
I would estimate that at least 85% of the people I know in Warsaw have at least three properties

That's a lot., are you in the Bilderberg group.
pip  10 | 1658  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1174
PIP youve lived in Poland for what 10 years and are relatively successfull by your own admission, why didnt you buy in Warsaw pre 2006?

I have a successful small business. I like what I do, I make a profit every month and have since I opened- I do something that Polish people don't do- but they want. There are different measures of success. I will not be a millionaire off of my work- but I am ok with that.

We bought our first home in 2006, I think. We didn't buy earlier for the very simple fact that we didn't know if we would stay here or not, we didn't know where we wanted to live in Warsaw and selling a house in this country is a clusterfuck.

pip: I know feck all than you do with regards to real estate in this country

Corrected for you.

isn't it funny that those who are claiming there is a bubble and a crash have no property but those of us that say there isn't--actually own property and work in the industry.

no sources. just a bunch of crap based on self appointed experts.

I guess we will just continue to buy more property and increase our portfolio while chicken little and all his special needs friends claim the sky is falling.
InWroclaw  89 | 1910  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1175
we didn't know where we wanted to live in Warsaw and selling a house in this country is a clusterf***.

Not my beeswax I know, but I have a feeling you're blonde and a bit of a babe ;o)
pip  10 | 1658  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1176
you are funny. not blonde. a babe? my husband thinks so.

If you are implying that I am a botoxed blonde that has just married for money....I have been married for 13 years. I met my husband in uni in Canada. we have known each other since we were 21 ---we have been broke and successful--together. I am not a blokersy cheap ass blonde that marries an ugly Brit because he is wealthy.
InWroclaw  89 | 1910  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1177
If you are implying that I am a botoxed blonde that has just married for money

Botox didn't cross my mind, wasn't implying what you suggest at all. I should stop smiling to myself now and giggling like an immature schoolboy, this is a serious thread and Milky will rightly tell me off in a minute as will a moderator!!

I shall say no more for now ;o)
poland_  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1178
That's a lot., are you in the Bilderberg group.

Lol, allow me to expand the " I know " bit....

These are people and families who I spend time with - NOT the girl who serves me lunch in the local "Food bar" which I visit for lunch most days.

Milky you don't have to be brought up on Aesop’s Fables to buy a few places in Poland when you have lived through the good times.
MoOli  9 | 479  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1179
I guess we will just continue to buy more property and increase our portfolio

Exactly PIP! one can never go wrong eventually(with very few exceptions) in buying property maybe you have to wait a couple of years for prices to come back if they go down but eventually one cant go wrong,I would never sell any until I need food on my table or have another project to fund or being offered a ridiculous price.
InWroclaw  89 | 1910  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1180
That worked so well for the vendors in Eire didn't it!

Who wants to see a farmhouse that was first offered for sale at about half a million euro and is now on sale at eighty million euro? Take a look...........

Address .................................................New Price Old Price Change Percent Date
Link Kilnagospagh, Skibbereen, West Cork 150000 175000 -25000 -14.2 09/04/11
Link Kilnagospagh, Skibbereen, West Cork 175000 220000 -45000 -20.4 02/06/10
Link Kilnagospagh, Skibbereen, West Cork 220000 280000 -60000 -21.4 20/10/09
Link Kilnagospagh, Skibbereen, West Cork 280000 435000 -155000 -35.63 21/10/08
Link Kilnagospagh, Skibbereen, West Cork 435000 475000 -40000 -8.42 19/09/08
- - Current Price Initial Price Change Percent -
- - 150000 475000 -325000 -68.4 -

source:
housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=180363&st=0
milky  13 | 1656  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1181
but eventually one cant go wrong,

hhhahaahahhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaahahahahahahahhhaha yea sure it's different in Poland
Real estate bubbles in the 2000s

By 2006, several areas of the world were thought to be in a bubble state, although this contention was not without controversy. This hypothesis was based on observation of similar patterns in real estate markets of a wide variety of countries.[22] This includes similar patterns of overvaluation and excessive borrowing based on those overvaluations.

The subprime mortgage crisis, with its accompanying impacts and effects on economies in various nations, has given some credence to the idea that these trends might have some common characteristics.[6]

For individual countries, see:

Australian property bubble - 1997 - 2012
British property bubble
Bulgarian property bubble
Chinese property bubble
Danish property bubble
Indian property bubble
Irish property bubble - 1999 - 2006
Israel's housing bubble
Japanese asset price bubble
Lebanese property bubble
Polish property bubble
Romanian property bubble
South Korean property bubble
Spanish property bubble
United States housing bubble - 1997 - 2006[23]
Greek property bubble

I have to go for a walk to walk of this laughter.
Wroclaw Boy  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1182
in buying property maybe you have to wait a couple of years for prices to come back if they go down but eventually one cant go wrong

Not really, if a property sells at £200k one year but then drops to £150k the next, £50k could have been saved.

negative equity sucks which ever way you want to play it, with negative equity youre trapped.
milky  13 | 1656  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1184
yes it states
That’s a 23 percent decrease compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, and a 19.6 percent decrease compared to the first quarter of 2012.

also
and the amount of mortgages refused are very high , up to 90% of mortgages in Warsaw had the own your own home government grant(gone since may 2012). Now they have to fork out the full price,so, sharp price reductions should be inevitable.
Harry  
7 Jul 2012 /  #1185
^ Try reading the article before demonstrating your stupidity: that article is only about sales of new apartments completed by WSE-listed developers, it says nothing about sales of new apartments by other developers our about sales of apartments which are not new. But do feel free to claim that it speaks about all apartments.
InWroclaw  89 | 1910  
8 Jul 2012 /  #1186
Might be cutting interest rates, says NBP thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/104900,Lower-growth-and-inflation-could-mean-cut-in-borrowing-rate
OP peterweg  37 | 2305  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1187
that article is only about sales of new apartments completed by WSE-listed developers,

Find an irrelevant fact and use it to justify what ever stupid viewpoint you want. Standard harry trick.

Surveys never count every thing, they are based on a sample in this case a very large sample.
milky  13 | 1656  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1188
very large sample.

yea,it's pretty significant.
Harry  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1189
Surveys never count every thing, they are based on a sample in this case a very large sample.

It is really? Perhaps you could tell us what percentage of housing sales in Poland are accounted for by the primary market? And then tell us what percentage of those sales are accounted for by WSE-listed developers?

Or is this just a case of find a figure which covers one small part of something, then lie about it covering the whole thing and insult anybody who points out that the source one gives does not support one's claim? A standard peterweg trick.
Avalon  4 | 1063  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1190
BUT!!! they were living abroad earning up to 10 time more. Not from indigenous economy. If that was the case prices would still be at 2004 levels.

So to go back to 2004 levels, wages will have to drop.

Salaries stay highest in Mazowieckie
9th July 2012

In the first quarter of 2012, the average salary in the Mazowieckie voivodship amounted to zł.4,800 (gross), according to Central Statistical Office data.

That’s more than in any other region of Poland, although differences have declined slightly in the last 12 months, Parkiet reported.

Mazowieckie is the only voivodship where salaries have increased by less than the inflation rate since the first quarter of 2011. This shows that other regions are slowly catching up.

There is still a lot of work to be done, though. The gap is large, with the lowest average salary amounting to zł.3,360 (in Podkarpackie).

I bet this is something you do not want to read, or do you still want to insist that everyone in Poland earns 1,500 a month.
4 eigner  2 | 816  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1191
or do you still want to insist that everyone in Poland earns 1,500 a month.

I hope you realize that the numbers are not showing the reality of income in any country? Some people are making 10k+ and that's why the numbers are so impressive. Skip the top earners and you'll see how much an average Pole really makes. You'll see, it's way beyond your expectations. It works the same way in any other country too.
Avalon  4 | 1063  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1192
Skip the top earners and you'll see how much an average Pole really makes.

Gdańsk Shipyard to employ 600 new workers
6th July 2012

The Gdańsk Shipyard is looking for qualified workers including welders and fitters to fill 600 vacancies, reported Gazeta Wyborcza.

Approximately half of the workers will be employed this year, with the rest taken on during 2013. The best-qualified workers will be offered monthly salaries of as much as zł.7,000, the company said in a statement.

“The yard is going to be the best-paying employer in the shipping industry in this region,” said Arkadiusz Aszyk, board member of the Gdańsk Shipyard.

So welders and fitters are in the top 1%?

Spin it any way you like, it's not what you want to hear.
teflcat  5 | 1024  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1193
The best-qualified workers will be offered monthly salaries of as much as zł.7,000

Any idea where I can do a welding course?
grubas  12 | 1382  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1194
Approximately half of the workers will be employed this year, with the rest taken on during 2013. The best-qualified workers will be offered monthly salaries of as much as zł.7,000, the company said in a statement.

The problem is that "The best-qualified workers" are already welding **** in Norway and make like 3 times of "as much as zł.7,000,".
Avalon  4 | 1063  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1195
Sorry, I thought we were talking about Poland?

I am sure that there will be plenty of skilled workers who would rather stay in Poland.
grubas  12 | 1382  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1196
Sorry, I thought we were talking about Poland?

Yeah,I am talking about Polish welders,plenty of them in Norway and other Scandinavian countries.
NorthMancPolak  4 | 642  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1197
I am sure that there will be plenty of skilled workers who would rather stay in Poland.

Exactly. Yet some people on this forum will never understand that life is not just about where you can make the most money. I could easily earn over $100 000 p.a. in the USA, but would I move there? Not a chance; I've got everything I'll ever need within a few miles of here.
pip  10 | 1658  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1198
well, not to be a downer, but 100,000 USD doesn't get you a whole hell of a lot anymore. You would be one of those people who makes too much money for subsidized health care and not enough to pay for proper insurance.

insurance runs about 1000 to 1800 per month for a family of four --the same as a mortgage payment.
4 eigner  2 | 816  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1199
The yard is going to be the best-paying employer in the shipping industry in this region,” said Arkadiusz Aszyk, board member of the Gdańsk Shipyard.

So welders and fitters are in the top 1%?

Spin it any way you like, it's not what you want to hear.

"The yard is going to be the best paying employer in the shipping industry in this region" - I couldn't ask for any better confirmation for what I said earlier. Now go ahead and ask a lady working at a retail store, hair salon or even a teacher (etc.) how much they make and we'll come much closer to reality.

I guess, it's not what you want to hear ;-)

well, not to be a downer, but 100,000 USD doesn't get you a whole hell of a lot anymore

it depends where in the states.
NorthMancPolak  4 | 642  
9 Jul 2012 /  #1200
insurance runs about 1000 to 1800 per month for a family of four --the same as a mortgage payment.

I know ;)

But my point is that $100 000 USD p.a. is a quite a lot more than I earn over here, despite the fact that I earn a fair bit above average in the UK. But it would never tempt me to move to the USA, even though I will never have to support "a family of four".

Then again, here in the UK, I am forced to pay £700 a month for benefits and pensions I will probably never receive (it all goes on supporting the feckless), so we're not really better off over here.

LIkewise, it's not necessarily relevant that a Polish welder can earn a lot more in a Scandinavian country - many would rather stay at home and earn 7000 PLN a month without having to move abroad.

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