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Poland's apartment prices continue to fall


pip 10 | 1,659
12 Sep 2011 #271
Poland is not in a bubble- why does this keep coming back? The market is leveling out- the market is saturated and people are able to be more selective. I have worked with a developer that had to split existing apartments into two separate flats because the market is changing. People are still buying but they are bing more cautious with their money.
PWEI 3 | 612
12 Sep 2011 #272
Poland is not in a bubble- why does this keep coming back?

Because the only way that the likes of Milky Mark will ever be able to afford to buy a place is if the price of property goes down by 95% and they think that by constantly predicting that the sky is falling, the sky will actually fall. Sad really.
Foreigner4 12 | 1,768
12 Sep 2011 #273
Sorry to p*ss all over your party.

My party was never in your pants so no apologies necessary:)
Anyhow, to get back on track, to anyone else with experience, what are the chances that some areas will see a bit of a dive while others remain stable?
pip 10 | 1,659
12 Sep 2011 #274
I think in the larger cities of Poland- Warsaw, Krakow, Wroclaw...etc etc- they will remain quite stable- I do think that there is a market in smaller cities- like Radom, Brodnica and Grudziac- but developers will be nervous to build there- with the mindset that the market is too unstable based on the local economy.
PWEI 3 | 612
12 Sep 2011 #275
Foreigner4
what are the chances that some areas will see a bit of a dive while others remain stable?

Pretty close to 100%. In the current market conditions, some sectors will see falling prices (although I think that 'dive' would be too strong a word), others will see stable prices and others will see increasing prices: it all depends exactly what we're talking about and exactly where it is.
Foreigner4 12 | 1,768
12 Sep 2011 #276
Now my question is, did prices jump in those areas you mentioned pip? If they did, was it to an extent that went beyond what people could or can afford?

Thanks for the info Harry.

I'm not sure if it should be a question of if prices will drop in Poland but rather where prices will drop in Poland...
pip 10 | 1,659
12 Sep 2011 #277
Now my question is, did prices jump in those areas you mentioned pip? If they did, was it to an extent that went beyond what people could or can afford?

I don't know if they jumped but they were hugely inflated. A lot of developers made a lot of money very quickly- no selling necessary. Now builders are having to lure potential buyers with incentives and lower prices. However, in Warsaw- my direct experience, there are still osiedle's being built where the houses are going for 3.5 million zlots ---and they are selling.

I think in Poland people tend to buy more than they can afford --saving is for people who can't afford to spend money--it is a different mindset than what I know.
milky 13 | 1,657
12 Sep 2011 #279
This is one foreigner that is not abandoning that is not abandoning it.

So? why are you crying about going somewhere else on that thread the other day??
Stuck with a few apartments eh ....
Why did Harry the lacky change his name...
Pip you're full of s...,
no bubble..Over the span of years 2002-2008 real estate prices in Poland have increased drastically. Between June 2006 and June 2007 alone the average price of a square metre in Warsaw rose from 6,683 PLN (1,636 EUR) to 9,540 PLN (2,519 EUR) (over 50% rise in euro terms).[1]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_property_bubble
Avalon 4 | 1,068
12 Sep 2011 #280
Stuck with a few apartments eh ....

No. My rant the other day was about dealing with idiots/stupidity and how the system is not changing.
From you, I have learnt to expect it.
LwowskaKrakow 28 | 431
12 Sep 2011 #281
there are still osiedle's being built where the houses are going for 3.5 million zlots ---and they are selling.

Wow, 3.5 Million zl, i guess Polish millionaires have to live somewhere too....
Avalon 4 | 1,068
12 Sep 2011 #282
They should have waited for another 3 years. They would have got them for half the price. (If what Milky predicts is true)
milky 13 | 1,657
12 Sep 2011 #283
From you, I have learnt to expect it.

From me??expect what?

(If what Milky predicts is true)

Simlpy the way of the market,not my prediction.
pip 10 | 1,659
12 Sep 2011 #284
Pip you're full of s...,
no bubble..Over the span of years 2002-2008 real estate prices in Poland have increased drastically. Between June 2006 and June 2007 alone the average price of a square metre in Warsaw rose from 6,683 PLN (1,636 EUR) to 9,540 PLN (2,519 EUR) (over 50% rise in euro terms).[1]

actually, I am not. That is not a bubble. I also imagine it had something to do with the fact that Poland joined the E.U. in 2004.
milky 13 | 1,657
12 Sep 2011 #285
actually, I am not.

Yes you are.
pip 10 | 1,659
12 Sep 2011 #286
ok, your right. I am full of ****. But you are still wrong. There is no bubble.
Wroclaw Boy
12 Sep 2011 #287
Milky Mark (who ever the hell he actually is) has always been partly right, and as far as i can tell nobodies denying that.

A bubble exists but it hasnt and will not burst IMO. In keeping with the bubble analogy lets call it a deflation shall we?

Spain was a bubble, many US States experienced bubbles, Dubai was probably the biggest bubble of the lot, but not Poland. Actually lets not forget about Ireland that was a huge bubble with a big burst. Dubai was the worst, nobody wants them.
wielki pan 2 | 250
12 Sep 2011 #288
there are still osiedle's being built where the houses are going for 3.5 million zlots ---and they are selling.

Don't doubt that there are homes selling for that price, but in the total picture these are very isolated situations, one just has to look at the average wages and you then draw your own conclusions.. The money coming in from the US/ireland and the UK is drying up.

I suggest that people still need to be cautious if wanting to invest in Polish real estate, there is no reason why property prices won't come down dramatically like in the US and Ireland etc.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,454
12 Sep 2011 #289
one just has to look at the average wages and you then draw your own conclusions

Bear one thing in mind - the average wage doesn't tell the whole story. Plenty of workers will be doing extra 'on-the-side', so to speak. There's a lot of nice new houses going up in even allegedly "poor" areas - where's the money coming from?

(plenty of teachers work a mere 9 hours a week to get ZUS paid, then work the rest in lucrative private classes - at 50zl a shot, that can easily be an extra 4000zl in income that no-one knows about)
Wroclaw Boy
13 Sep 2011 #290
there is no reason why property prices won't come down dramatically like in the US and Ireland etc.

There are plenty of reasons as to why it wont, a major one being a nice flat in the city will cost 6000 PLN / m2 bit if you drive a few miles outisde you'll get a house for 1500 PLN/m2.
wielki pan 2 | 250
13 Sep 2011 #291
Plenty of workers will be doing extra 'on-the-side', so to speak. There's a lot of nice new houses going up in even allegedly "poor" areas - where's the money coming from?

Thats true, but the majority of Poles haven't the skills to do that, a lot of money coming from the US has dried up, zakopane when times were good was built on the funds of poles working in the US. Things have changed. Mr D keep in mind that we are not talking about homes worth 1 to 2 m, but 3.5 million zlote.. Some Poles are very rich, most are struggling working long hours with increasing costs associated with living. I generally believe that real estate will be stable for a long time, although some properties will fall dramatically, by the way, how long does it take to sell a house in Poland, hmm I've seen home/apartments still not sold after 2 years.

There are plenty of reasons as to why it wont, a major one being a nice flat in the city will cost 6000 PLN / m2 bit if you drive a few miles outisde you'll get a house for 1500 PLN/m2

Depends if people have money, your theory does't hold in the US situation
pip 10 | 1,659
13 Sep 2011 #292
by the way, how long does it take to sell a house in Poland, hmm I've seen home/apartments still not sold after 2 years.

people are becoming smarter and the market is more saturated. In my osiedle there were 5 houses all owned by one buyer, they were fit out in high end finishings and have been sitting empty for a year. At this moment there are only two left- the other ones just recently sold but it took a long time.

I did a remodel of a 23 m2 flat in centrum Warsaw next to a park- it sold in four days. At this moment smaller flats are selling- retirees that are using their savings or bachelors buying their first place.

There are houses in Warsaw that haven't sold after 10 years. (this is info from an agent)

The market is leveling out and adjusting. Doesn't mean there is a bubble. The market is saturated and the prices are inflated- builders are having to adjust the selling price to accommodate a different buyer-
bullfrog 6 | 602
13 Sep 2011 #293
hmm I've seen home/apartments still not sold after 2 years.

This has only to do with a peculiar "polish" attitude made of a mix of stubborness and misunderstanding of what a market is. When they want to sell and once they have set what they believe to be the "right" price for their house/flat, they will rarely bulge from it and adjust it downwards if that's the way the market is moving. They think their price is right and prefer to stick to it and wait for the market to move their way which can sometime take .. a very very long time..
pip 10 | 1,659
13 Sep 2011 #294
Pip you're full of s...,
no bubble..Over the span of years 2002-2008 real estate prices in Poland have increased drastically. Between June 2006 and June 2007 alone the average price of a square metre in Warsaw rose from 6,683 PLN (1,636 EUR) to 9,540 PLN (2,519 EUR) (over 50% rise in euro terms).[1]

I am assuming the reason you didn't source this little tidbit is that it is actually a wikipedia source- which everyone knows is crap. have a better source?

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/housing-bubble-and-currency-controls-in.html
this is interesting.
cms 9 | 1,255
13 Sep 2011 #295
Bear one thing in mind - the average wage doesn't tell the whole story. Plenty of workers will be doing extra 'on-the-side', so to speak. There's a lot of nice new houses going up in even allegedly "poor" areas - where's the money coming from?

You can get a bit of korepetycja or bar work to help pay day to day bills but the kind of cash from that will never buy property at these prices - besides to get a mortgage you generally need income that it documented and contracted for.

Affordability is the issue - Milky is quite correct, with the banks being stricter about deposits and loan to salary ratios then the amount of people who can get credit must be drastically reduced.

Surprized that nobody mentioned the long article on this in Gazeta W last Monday which talked about reasons why young couples can no longer afford flats. It had plenty Milky's sentiments but was backed by plenty of numbers.

As for investing in smaller towns then developers would be mad to do that at the moment - there is so much good vacant property there as many towns have shrinking populations as young people head for cities or abroad.
Foreigner4 12 | 1,768
13 Sep 2011 #296
CMS- that is the best post on this thread so far.
LwowskaKrakow 28 | 431
13 Sep 2011 #297
This has only to do with a peculiar "polish" attitude made of a mix of stubborness and misunderstanding of what a market is..

If they can afford to wait ,why sell at a lower price? I personally hate the anglo saxon habit of bargaining for everything. If your budget is 300.000PLN why visit places proposed at 600 000 PLN ? It is annoying for the seller and a waste of time and energy for everyone.

I also saw some ads for rentals with rental prices beeing advertised as "negociable" so what's the point for the owner setting a higher price just for the sake of a future bargaining?

In my opinion if the price is "negociable "it is not the correct price and is somewhat over inflated.
I rented my flat last month to a Polish professionnal but during the process of putting the flat on the market for rent indeed the only people bargaining were an English-Polish couple of "professionals" who contacted several times showed their interest, sent emails and calls , liked the place but in the end had a budget 600PLN lower than the rent i wanted.

It would have just saved my time if they had not contacted me in the first place!
Foreigner4 12 | 1,768
13 Sep 2011 #298
^damn them for trying!
You can complain but c'mon, how were they to know whether or not you'd have been willing to come down in price?
wielki pan 2 | 250
13 Sep 2011 #299
If they can afford to wait ,why sell at a lower price? I personally hate the anglo saxon habit of bargaining for everything. If your budget is 300.000PLN why visit places proposed at 600 000 PLN ? It is annoying for the seller and a waste of time and energy for everyone.

The fact remains that sellers inflate their prices, knowing buyers like a discount or bargain. I've never seen a auction or set sale something I think Poland is not ready for. The golden rule remains that buyers dictate the price of a property. ie a place is only worth what a person is prepared to pay.
LwowskaKrakow 28 | 431
13 Sep 2011 #300
The golden rule remains that buyers dictate the price of a property. ie a place is only worth what a person is prepared to pay.

Apparently not given the high purchasing prices for properties now in most Polish cities!


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