Poland Parliament elections in October 2011

remember (and don't start twisting away now) - we're not saying of majority of votes or PiS getting into government here - just the simple mathematical construction that PiS wins more votes than any other party (counted seperately) - I'm sure you will love your beret - and I assure you that Polish pigs are fat enough not to be able to make it into the air ;)

Er...no. We're talking about


Who's twisting?

Merged: Polish parliamentary elections 2011 will take place and will be cancelled

The marginal party Nowa Prawica (New Right) had submitted the required documents to the election commission on time. The election commision registered their candidate lists for 20 districts but failed to register the remaining list, which prevents Nowa Prawica from having candidates in all of Poland. Nowa Prawica protested but today the Highest Court decided that the protest is "too early" since the law strangely allows such protests to be submitted only after the elections. Since Nowa Prawica has a strong case (they had no influence on the way the election commission works) the most likely outcome is that the elections will have to be repeated.

You are an optimist! :):):)


ooops, I hope this black scenario won`t take place.


Are you serious or kidding because I don`t know. :):):)


My father in law has one too. But he votes PO because he wants to see his grandchildren in the future. :):):):):):):):):)
That was a silly joke, sorry.


How can you be so unwise? Don`t you realise they are the best coalition partner for PO? It is elementary, Watson. :):):)

Have you seen some of the corny campaign vids? It makes you wonder 2 things. Do they know the meaning of 'cheesy' or 'corny?' Are they even taking this seriously or do they have so much money that they just do not care anymore?

I tried to find the Pawlak clip with the Adamek music and the heavy metal SLD stuff but it is not up on youtube, probably because it is fresh. Has anyone seen them? If you can get hold of these clips then please to post them.

Good post.

I was thinking of showing a few of them:

PO female karate candidate: Kinga Więzowska.

We need tough people like Kinga to fight PiS hordes effectively.

PS. She is pretty, too. Kaczyński has no chance.

As it stands?

PO - 39% (a slight slip due to the 'youth' not bothering to vote, unlike last time)
PiS - 32% (a strong showing, but no improvement on 2007)
SLD - 17% (very strong, I can see that the SLD are putting a lot of effort into the small cities this time round - and they have the 'alienated from PO' vote)

PSL - 6% (just enough)

Prediction : The SLD will play kingmakers, and will choose to support PO on a "confidence and supply" basis. PiS will scream blue murder about how the SLD have caused them to lose (again) and will spend 3 years blaming the SLD for absolutely everything because they chose to support PO rather than them.

Meanwhile, PO will form a successful minority government - they will be forced to work with the SLD, who will support them on an issue-by-issue basis rather than full coalition.

Polish politics has always been cheesy and corny, what's new there?

The latest attempt by PiS to seem "cool" and "jazzy" is hilarious, for instance.

That is against all the recent polls which regularly show SLD support at 10-12%.


Hey, come on. It is unfair! I didn`t announce the future coalition prediction game yet!! :):):):):)

Indeed, I'm sticking my neck out with this prediction. But they really do seem to be putting a hell of a lot of effort in - and they are really pushing the message that they're more interested in balanced books than socialism. I'm also convinced that any drop in support from PO will go to the SLD.

I'm actually not convinced that PiS will even get 32% - but they have tended to do slightly better than the polls have predicted.


Ah, come on, the result isn't important, the governing coalition is :D


Count me in too - if PiS get more votes countrywide than PO, I'll be wearing that beret and sending cash too.

Indeed he doesn't.

On a more serious note, for all those who constantly complain and find the Polish bureaucratic system very frustrating. this article is for you-very interesting and no BS: I fear the current government's approach would not be replicated by PIS if it were ever to win power, and the process of reforms would come to a halt. I think that Adam Szejnfeld is definitely one of this government's stars.

Predictions? Well...

PO - 39%
PiS - 31%
SLD - 15%
PSL - 9%

PSL will get many votes because they are no Samoobrona anymore who would steal their votes from village area. PO-PSL again is highly possible, I would prefer PO-SLD though. PiS will unfortunately gain a lot of votes from fanatics and these who believe them. RPP (Ruch Poparcia Palikota) has few percent in polls, but I doubt if they get more than 2%.

Merged: Jędrzej Wijas election video

Now, imagine this as a Party Political Broadcast in the UK - you have to give it to the Poles they have imagination :0)
One of Jędrzej Wijas election videos and he is a SLD candidate in the coming elections.

Kind of quaint and meaningful - I use it as a lullaby to send my daughter off to sleep...

I have to disagree, partially. I do not think PO is going to lose votes because of youth not bothering to turn up to votes. I think there are a lot of people frustrated with the way they have run the country [including football fans].

I think SLD will take some of the frustrated PO voters but Palikot, as much as I dislike this man, is playing his part in taking some of the voters too. Apparently his movement/party now has close to a 5% backing [if what the media say is true, although recently he was supposed to have had only 1%]. Funnily enough this could play in to the hands of PiS. If he takes away some more of the PO frustrated voters, perhaps SLD takes a few more as well, PiS could get really close. The media is frightened of this [TVN, Polsat etc] so they would actually prefer people to vote any other party but PiS, even Palikot, who you might have noticed is getting a lot of TV time lately. The thing is this plan can backfire and work for PiS, because noone else has got a realistic chance of beating PO.

As for the PiS corny advertising. I think they are just trying to appeal to the younger audience who seem to like the 'ura bura' Tusk types, not the old little man Kaczynski types, so they have brought in some youngers candidates. Look above my post, now there is a corny ad [that I mentioned before].

r

those who used to vote for Samoobrona were doing so exactly because PSL had nothing to offer them - they neither cared or did anything for these people - so I don't believe the majority of those who voted for Samoobrona will vote for PSL (I actually believe only a small minority will)

The guy is a total cokc.

Most of them are, hague. Bunch of wanky bandits!

Football fans wouldn't have voted PO anyway - so it's no loss. Incidentally, the fans we're talking about are not the "mainstream" fans - these are the ultras, and their political views are always going to be on the right of the political spectrum, no matter what country. Bear in mind that many "ordinary" fans are supportive of PO's measures - because it makes the stadiums far more friendly places.

As for people being frustrated - that's not the word on the street. There are plenty of newly-middle class people who will always vote PO because it offers them the best hope - the only frustrated people are the ones who have been whining and complaining since 1989 about everyone. It's the same old in Poland - but the last few election results show that the electorate is satisfied with PO.


Indeed, it's possible. But bear in mind that Palikot isn't an idiot - if he can play kingmaker, he'll get PO to support some of his policies and will back them in a coalition as a result. Likewise with the SLD - they will support PO if needed because they can work with PO - they can't work with PiS.

Bear in mind that the Polish electoral system has never resulted in an outright majority. Even if by some utter shock, PiS managed to win - PO would still manage to put together the magic 50%+1 - because PiS has utterly alienated the PSL, SLD, et al through their actions. The *only* way PiS can win this election would be to be in a position where a coalition with the SLD is enough to pass 50%+1 - and then to get rid of all the "hawks". That's not going to happen. Oh, and bear in mind that it would also be electoral suicide for them - their voters would never again vote for a party that shared power with ex-communists.

The SLD are also pretty damn unlikely to agree to any coalition unless they were in charge of security and justice - they know what PiS did to Samobroona and LPR - do you really think that they're going to let PiS use instruments of power against them as well?

In a strange sense, Kaczynski has led them to electoral success and yet oblivion. They're firmly the 2nd party in Poland, yet they're totally unelectable - a huge contradiction, don't you think?

I've looked, looked and looked again at the electoral mathematics - and I just cannot see how PiS can win this. Even if they get over 40% of the vote (which would be a massive shock) - the PO/PSL/SLD/Palikot/etc parties would simply find a way to keep them out.

I'm not sure what streets you hear this on but I have heard many opinions from people who voted for PO in the past, that have said that they feel 'let down' and are not going to vote PO again. Yes the election results show that more people prefer PO, not sure about being satisfied, but certainly PO do have less backing now, even if still more than others [for now, according to surveys, however much you can trust them].

As for SLD. Yes it is true that many PiS supporters would be furious if PiS went with SLD but do you think PO supporters would be happy if PO did it? I think you underestimate just how much a lot of people [apart from an SLD voter obviously] in Poland are against SLD. They are still thought of as commies, so if PO, however we look at it, still a right wing party, had anything to do with SLD, it would be frowned upon.

yes it's highly unlikely that PiS will receive 40 per cent of the votes - but if it however somehow happens (which of course I would much welcome) then in case there is a lot of lost votes (parties not getting over the 5 per cent threshold) then they might actually end up close to 50 per cent of parliamentary seats - then there is a question if they can carve up a faction that would desert PO and form a majority for a PiS government (there are a couple of moderate people in PO in terms of PiS-hating) - but yes this is highly unlikely - even if PIS has 40 per cent of the votes most PO will opt for coalition government with SLD (in this scenario I presume a three parties parliament) - the SLD will try to get a very good bargain out of this coaltion (there would be pretty much resentment in PO and the partners would not trust each other anyway unlike the PO-PSL deal) - this coupled with not so bright economical forecasts can result in early elections say in early 2013 (because late 2013 will have Poles waking up to the effects of 'climatic agreements' and having to pay perhaps even double the current electricity bills not to mention the big businesses closing (some industries in Poland are very electricity dependant) and people losing jobs

The streets of Warsaw, Wroclaw and Poznan.


Indeed, but these voters are going to gravitate to the SLD or Palikot, not PiS. Or worse for PiS - they won't vote at all.


Well, talking about satisfaction - I know several people who will vote PO simply because they're the best option. Many of them aren't satisfied as well (quite a few of my co-workers despise PO's educational policies, for instance) - but they simply don't see any alternative. Again - this is where it hurts PiS, because these voters simply will not 'go there'.

Bear in mind that the SLD as early as 1993 managed to win 37.2% of the vote - when memories were far fresher. And the SLD absolutely destroyed everyone else in 2001 - taking home a massive (under proportional representation) 216 out of 460 seats in the Sejm. They've been elected twice to government - so while the majority is against them, there's still 40-45% of people willing to vote for them if the circumstances dictate.

As for PO supporters being happy - well, this is the question. I suspect that it would depend on the nature of the support - a PO/SLD coalition is still quite unthinkable, but the SLD supporting PO on a confidence/supply basis would be acceptable to most PO voters as the SLD wouldn't be in government.

It's not beyond the realms of impossible to suggest that we might end up with no viable majority after this election - although the SLD and PO have enough common ground to make a minority PO government work. I also suspect that from the SLD point of view, it makes more sense to keep PO in Government than to allow the very-socialist PiS back into power.

if PiS is so very socialist what is so wrong with them in the eyes of SLD then - isn't SLD supposed to be a left wing party?

You know, I wondered the same not so long ago. Then I realised - it's only economics/welfare state that they agree on.

(Polish politics really do not follow the usual left/right line, do they?)

PiS definitely are dreadfully socialist though - not that there's anything wrong with that, Poles like it.

I think there is a certain expectation amongst certain Poles, esp the older ones, that the state will help them. Therefore, the socialist model fits them to a tee.

Conservative socialists you mean? ;)

SLD is left-sided socialism, which is much more up-to-date than PiS's one. SLD have much more of ideas that are actually possible to make. PiS have some idoeas too, but I treat them as science fictin. They already promissed they will build 3 millions of new flats...

PO is the most popular probably because it has something from PiS and PO together, plus they don't make a lot of things that would put voters off them :)

The proper name is National Socialist.

if you ever considered do delve into it you would have learned that they meant 3 million flats in 8 years - and not built by the state but with the help of state maintained financing programmes like 'Rodzina na swoim' ('Rodzina na swoim' was moderately successful actually AFAIK and was not completely out of touch - it was meant as an incentive for the construction industry to build new homes)


yes, I would be delighted to 'heil' you - though I think I would be worried a bit you will not 'heil' back - I can't believe not everyone is a good Nazional Sozialist as me and our beloved leader Jaro Kacz - and well the police of course never bothered those who put out 'Donald ma Tole' banners on football matches - no - and well ABW never arrived at 6 a.m. at the doors of the nazi who maintained antykomor.pl website - yes you are far from here pal - and in your case being far means you are able to see far less

I too read this many years ago. According to posters like Milky etc, there is no need for these flats as there is a huge surplus of apartments in Poland?. It seems silly to make a promise which will never be fulfilled.

actually in Poland this is a norm - Donald Tusk in his first day in government promised a laptop for every school kid in Poland - I just wonder if he believed in that himself (or how does anyone make himself believe a lie they tell just for the moment they utter it) - if you followed Tusk any closer you would found out that he never gave a single interview with any journalist that could possibly ask him some troublesome question (starting from some time in 2005)

more like access to computer and internet for each kid in 'gimnazjum', no?

you mean not every kid in gimnazjum has an access to one??

what is then 'a personalised laptop and internet access' for every gimnazjum student then??