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Poland in the 'brave new world'?


Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
7 Mar 2011 #1
Barring some meteorite or other unforeseen catastrophe, there is much to indicate that the world's power and economic balance is shifting away from the developed West to the already developed (Japan) and rapidly developing Orient (China, India, Japan, Korea etc.). How the Orient interacts with the Muslim World, which controls strategic fuel deposits, may play a key role shaping the further course of events. Mass emigration from the above to the West may also play an important part in the overall West to East shift. Probably the only unknown is the rate at which this will occur. Some predictions maintain that within 50 years English will become a minority language in the US, outnumbered by Spanish and oriental-language speakers.

Where do you believe Poland will end up within the total puzzle, let's say 50 years from now.
--For instance recent Sino-Polish military talks (possibly prompted by a common Russian potential foe) may suggest an independent, special relationship between Warsaw and Beijing.
---If the euro collapses, will Poland's fidelity to the złoty prove an advantage to its economic growth? Reverting to marks, francs, lire, punts, etc. will surely be a confusing and costly operation.

--Poland's being less of a magnet to Third World immigration may be a boon by avoiding the hyper-diversity 'multi-kulti' as Tante Merkel put it) now causing so many problems in the West.

P

--Where will the investment stream and outsourcing business go following the upheavals in North Africa? Can Poland and other Central European countries benefit if this business is re-directed?
poland_
7 Mar 2011 #2


Along the way Friedman explains how Japan, Poland and Turkey become world powers and why so many things that seem important to us now - such as Islamic extremism and Chinese economic dynamism - will eventually fade from relevance.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
7 Mar 2011 #3
Interesting stuff. Only shows to go that speculative historical projections can go in different directions and no-one can foresee the invariable surprise twists along the way.
Des Essientes 7 | 1,291
7 Mar 2011 #4
Friedman's ridiculous prediction of a Mexican reconquista of the Southwestern United States could contribute to the anti-Latino sentiments already being drummed up by racist demagogues should his prognosticating become renown amongst American idiots.
NomadatNet 1 | 457
7 Mar 2011 #5
50 years? Even only 2-3 years past after economy crisis started and chaos already started everywhere. In the past, if such a crisis happened, we could see some wars between some countries so that some gas relief could be done. Now, it is not possible as many have big weapons, nukes that can destroy the life on whole earth. So, what else left? Revolts, riots, anarchy, civil wars, etc etc. already started in some places in the world. With deepening of crisis, such things will spread everywhere in the world, this is unavoidable. So, with mass movements everywhere, also, cosmopolitic structures of cities everywhere in the world, things will worsen. Country borders will disappear everywhere. So, talking about this country that country etc doesn't make sense, everywhere will be in chaos. and such things may happen in a year or two. Rather than nations, every individual will try to survive. In that sense, Poles can survive better than individuals of rich powerful countries today who will disintegrate very quickly. So, everythings depend on this global crisis which seems to be unstoppable, unrecoverable anymore.
smurf 39 | 1,981
7 Mar 2011 #6
Most of us lot'll be in our 70s/80s even 90s by then & might have more important things to think about.....like trying to not die/trying to die/trying to remember names/trying to get laid one last time.
beckski 12 | 1,617
8 Mar 2011 #7
English will become a minority language in the US, outnumbered by Spanish

It's already pretty much the trend, in many parts of Southern California.
poland_
8 Mar 2011 #8
his prognosticating become renown amongst American idiots.

Friedmans book “In The Next 100 Years” is already a best seller

Friedman undertakes the impossible (or improbable) challenge of forecasting world events over the next 100 years. His wise words of "Be Practical, Expect the Impossible." Should be heeded and not scoffed at. The speed of change will only up the anti, in a world in which big does not mean best. We are entering the age of downsize.

George Friedman is the chief intelligence officer and founder of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), a private intelligence agency whose clients include foreign government agencies and Fortune 500 companies. Gathering information from its global network of operatives and analysts (drawing the nickname "the Shadow CIA"), Stratfor produces thoughtful and genuinely engrossing analysis of international events daily.
AdamKadmon 2 | 508
8 Mar 2011 #9
Stratfor produces thoughtful and genuinely engrossing analysis of international events daily.

Any advert that sounds like this must be made by the shadow, secret CIA agent - George Friedman.
Dande - | 5
8 Mar 2011 #10
Polonius3: Barring some meteorite or other unforeseen catastrophe, there is much to indicate that the world's power and economic balance is shifting away from the developed West to the already developed (Japan) and rapidly developing Orient (China, India, Japan, Korea etc.).

This would mean that the socialist in American and Europe have gotten their way and have succeeded in making us as poor as the rest of the world. Their cries of equality would have made mankind equally poor.

Polonius3: How the Orient interacts with the Muslim World, which controls strategic fuel deposits, may play a key role shaping the further course of events.

Well China would not play nice with the Muslim world. The full force of communism would be upon the Arab world if they messed with China. Public executions, slave camps, the whole works, the Chinese are capable of it. Of course China would love to allow the oppression of people under Sharia law in the Arab world if it benefited them (and it would), unlike the west, because under both communism and Sharia law human rights and dignity are nonexistent.

Polonius3: Mass emigration from the above to the West may also play an important part in the overall West to East shift. Probably the only unknown is the rate at which this will occur. Some predictions maintain that within 50 years English will become a minority language in the US, outnumbered by Spanish and oriental-language speakers.

Na. Many will be bilingual but if anyone wants to achieve success in America they need to know English, and therefore their kids will know English. There is a difference between people being bilingual and in 50 years 250+ million people (say the population is 500 million then) in America not knowing English. Very unrealistic. American may have a large poor community that does not know English, but screw them, if they don't want to learn the language to bad.

Polonius3:Where do you believe Poland will end up within the total puzzle, let's say 50 years from now.

Ya, Poland and the rest of Europe would be screwed. I go back to world wide poverty on this one. The amazing wealth the western world has seen has been a direct result of the free market capitalism. Without that, and you ain't getting that from China or the Middle East, I would say Europe falls back into communist rule or some twisted form of it. It seems like that's Europe's natural state anyway.

In conclusion, if the economic demands of the world focus on China and the Middle East, then expect poverty. These places have amazing wealth and natural resources right now, but they are all still crap-holes. You have a west that buys every resource you have, every good you produce, and most of the people there still live in poverty. The middle class would once again become nonexistent and you would be left with rulers and serfs.


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