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Polish GDP per capita has dropped !


Ironside 47 | 9,540
21 Nov 2010  #1
Statistics has it that in the years 2000- 2007 GDP in Poland per capita has risen from 10.6 $ to 15.9 $!
It mean that purchasing power of average Pole has dropped, about 38%.
convex 20 | 3,978
21 Nov 2010  #2
Your post seems a bit confused :)

Polish GDP per capita has dropped !

in the years 2000- 2007 GDP in Poland per capita has risen

OP Ironside 47 | 9,540
21 Nov 2010  #3
2000 - 1US$ - 4.3126zł
2007 -1US$ - 2.4754zł

How about now? clearer?
Lodz_The_Boat 32 | 1,535
21 Nov 2010  #4
I dunno what he is saying or thinking, but I can say that the Polish economy is not as strong as it used to be, and jobs are more scarce. This is all I can add to the cry of Polish economy suffering.

Recently the elder brother of a friend of mine got a job that he didnt study for ... and the pay is not that good. The man has a wife and a son to look after ... it is not that easy for the educated ones even ...

Some of the Poles earn alot higher, which drives all figures upward ... I suggest to interrelate the mean of the GDP/cap along with its mode and median ... in that way you can know more precisely about the current state of the economy.

For the ones seeing green ... do you know that the coming winter will not be sweet to many Poles? ... Its not paradise in here.
OP Ironside 47 | 9,540
21 Nov 2010  #5
So in 2000 GDP per capita - 45.7 zł
2007 -39.4zł

down about 14%, plus 24% inflation = 38%!

Well?
PennBoy 76 | 2,437
21 Nov 2010  #6
World Bank raises Poland's GDP growth forecasts to 3.5% in 2010, 4.1% in 2011

gowarsaw.eu/en/news/world-bank-raises-polands-gdp-growth-forecasts-to-3-5-in-2010-4
ShawnH 8 | 1,497
21 Nov 2010  #7
So the zloty has sank faster than the GDP could rise. I can see it.
OP Ironside 47 | 9,540
21 Nov 2010  #8

Yeah ! talking about PO being good for economy ! phew!
Lodz_The_Boat 32 | 1,535
21 Nov 2010  #9
talking about PO being good for economy

They try better than others ...

The economy is a tricky thing ... there are other factors too that the government must look into, such as corruption, society, tolerance and culture.

PO is good ... what do you think about the SLD? =)

I care less for politics ... neither do I follow much ... but I feel that the PSL and SLD should be together and do something interesting ... they can make small changes within themselves and come out as the best choice for Poles. It is possible right?
convex 20 | 3,978
21 Nov 2010  #10
2000 - 1US$ - 4.3126zł
2007 -1US$ - 2.4754zł

That would mean that Polish purchasing power increased on the global market.

Polish GDP in 2000 was 744b zl
...in 2008 1,342b zl

And the zloty is worth nearly twice as much now against the dollar as it was in 2000.

Really not following you.

Yeah ! talking about PO being good for economy ! phew!

I can assure you that both of the leading parties in Poland are equally worthless when it comes to stimulating the economy. Poland has the NBP to thank for good management of the zloty over the years.
PennBoy 76 | 2,437
21 Nov 2010  #11
They try better than others ...

Donald Tusk sold the shipyard and he doesn't even know to whom
cheehaw 2 | 263
21 Nov 2010  #12
yea, but these days, debt and borrowed money is added to GDP, so we're not really talking about 'product' and production here. Poland got a big influx of cash from the EU didn't it? that's mostly what you are seeing in those GDP stats.
convex 20 | 3,978
21 Nov 2010  #13
That'd be €65b allocated until 2013, but it's not a transfer from one countries balance sheet to another. It is counted as investment only when a particular program is funded, of which Poland has been fairly conservative in getting going. EU funding has had an impact on GDP, but not a substantial one. But your right, GDP is probably the worst economic indicator out there. It doesn't take debt into account..
A J 4 | 1,089
21 Nov 2010  #14
Poland got a big influx of cash from the EU didn't it?

Bingo.
FUZZYWICKETS 8 | 1,884
21 Nov 2010  #15
THIS is exactly what I cannot stand on this forum....schmucks posting crap like this:

Lodz the boat, you JUST wrote in another thread:

Come back those who are not making it big in USA ... it is still possible to make a living in Poland.

and within the SAME hour, you wrote this in this thread:

I dunno what he is saying or thinking, but I can say that the Polish economy is not as strong as it used to be, and jobs are more scarce. This is all I can add to the cry of Polish economy suffering.
For the ones seeing green ... do you know that the coming winter will not be sweet to many Poles? ... Its not paradise in here.

need I say more?

i simply cannot STAND posters like you.

MAN, am I glad I was not born in this country. I can't imagine having this ridiculous love/hate Polish complex.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,531
21 Nov 2010  #16
I care less for politics ... neither do I follow much ... but I feel that the PSL and SLD should be together and do something interesting ... they can make small changes within themselves and come out as the best choice for Poles. It is possible right?

Last time it happened, they lost badly at the next election.

The best result for Poland would be something around 35% PO, 20% SLD - a solid majority in the Sejm, yet both sides forced to work together to find common ground.
bullfrog 6 | 603
21 Nov 2010  #17
EU funding has had an impact on GDP, but not a substantial one.

65 bn€ over 2007-2013 is around 10 bn€ per year, that's 3% of total GDP. Quite substantial by any count!
convex 20 | 3,978
21 Nov 2010  #18
I need to check the numbers, but from what I remember, about 20% of that has been allocated.
SeanBM 35 | 5,808
21 Nov 2010  #19
Statistics has it that in the years 2000- 2007 GDP in Poland per capita has risen from 10.6 $ to 15.9 $!
It mean that purchasing power of average Pole has dropped, about 38%.

If they have risen, how have they dropped?
Have you a link?
Lodz_The_Boat 32 | 1,535
21 Nov 2010  #20
ove/hate Polish complex.

Here I posted a personal Polish problem ... on there I posted a welcome sign for a possible human resource addition.

I dont say that we are doing excellent, but we can use good skills from people who moved to more developed countries. They can come back and do some good in our country ... create jobs etc.

But well ... you wont get it... its called being in love with ones country but yet at the same time being worried about it aswell.
OP Ironside 47 | 9,540
21 Nov 2010  #21
That would mean that Polish purchasing power increased on the global market.

Maybe, but it means that purchasing power of an average Pole had been lower in 2007 than in 2000!What good for banks and financial institution, is not often good for an average taxpayer on whose shoulders all system depends.

2000 GDP per capita - 45.7 zł
2007 -39.4zł

Considering that, worth of zloty has not much to do with this!

If they have risen, how have they dropped?
Have you a link?

Risen in US$ and dropped in złoty !
Nope, although you can find GDP per capita in $, along official statistical information.
convex 20 | 3,978
21 Nov 2010  #22
Those are very strange numbers. I'd be curious to see where you go them from. The numbers from GUS are:
Polish GDP in 2000 was 744b zl
...in 2008 1,342b zl

The population has remained pretty much stagnant at 38,5m. It looks like a 100% increase in GDP and a nearly 200% per capita increase in purchasing power for dollar denominated commodities (like oil).
delphiandomine 83 | 17,531
21 Nov 2010  #23
Risen in US$ and dropped in złoty !

Erm...do you really not understand that although the amount of zloty might have dropped, what you can buy for that zloty has increased dramatically?
OP Ironside 47 | 9,540
21 Nov 2010  #24
Those are very strange numbers.

GDP per capita?

Erm...do you really not understand that although the amount of zloty might have dropped, what you can buy for that zloty has increased dramatically?

Don't you understand that at the same time prices have risen dramatically as well, and o not forget about inflation !
SeanBM 35 | 5,808
21 Nov 2010  #25
Polish GDP per capita $18,072 (2009 est.) (Wiki)
convex 20 | 3,978
21 Nov 2010  #26
GDP per capita?

The population has remained the same, and GDP has doubled, ergo, GDP per capita has doubled.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,531
21 Nov 2010  #27
Don't you understand that at the same time prices have risen dramatically as well, and o not forget about inflation !

Yes, prices are rising. As are wages. It's called 'convergence'.
FUZZYWICKETS 8 | 1,884
21 Nov 2010  #28
Lodz the boat wrote:

But well ... you wont get it... its called being in love with ones country but yet at the same time being worried about it as well.

it's called blow it out your a$$. I mean honestly. sorry for the vulgarity Mods, but Lodz the boat....get a grip.

i will never take a single comment you make about poland seriously.

ever.
jwojcie 2 | 763
22 Nov 2010  #29
Statistics has it that in the years 2000- 2007 GDP in Poland per capita has risen from 10.6 $ to 15.9 $! It mean that purchasing power of average Pole has dropped, about 38%.

I think you've made and error in your calculations. I'm not sure I will be able to explain clearly what I mean but let give it a shoot:

1. If we compare your calculations:
GDP $ USD/PLN GDP PLN
2000: 10,6 4,3126 45,7 zł
2007: 15,9 2,4754 39,4 zł

with official data:
2000: 19,4 zł
2007: 30,9 zł

then we can clearly see that those two don't match

2. Why?
I believe the reason is that you've used GDP PPP numbers not nominal GDP with real exchange rates. Because of that when you multiplied GDP PPP by those exchange rates you've did something similar to multipling apples with oranges. This PPP statistics is based on something called "theory of one price" and among other things values are not converted with current exchange rate but with some artificial exchange rate wich would best describe purchasing power of given currency.

I think the way you should do it would be to use nominal values, for example (nominal data from IMF):
2000: 4,45 $ and 19,36 zł
2007: 11,16 $ and 30,87 zł

If you apply your exchange rates to those nominal values of $ above then you will get more or less above values of zlotys.

Ok, mistery solved, what did I win ? ;)

Hm.. if those above is not clear enough, I would like to add something:
When they (IMF, WB, whatever...) are calculating GDP PPP they usually using $ as a common denominator. That is why nominal values of GDP are usually equal with GDP PPP values for United States. Everything is valued against dollar (but probably we could find some Eurostat data, where common denominator is Euro). Anyway what "they" do is they are choosing some arbitral basket of goods and compare purchasing power of currency, ie. how many loaf of bread one can buy with 100 zł. Based on that, they calculate what exchange rate should be in order to buy the same amount of bread in US. In the end this artificial exchange rate is used to calculate GDP PPP. So in the end, the variable here is not GDP in zlotys but the exchange rate which was used to make 10,6 $ from 19,4 zł. To present common way of presenting exchange rates lets revert that question, and we get:

[Artficial Exchange Rate] = 19,4 /10,6 = 1,83.

So the answer is that in order to get Polish GDP PPP in $ in 2000 "they" used 1,8301 artificial exchange rate not 4,3126. Which also means that in year 2000 Polish Zloty was hugely undervalued.
OP Ironside 47 | 9,540
24 Nov 2010  #30
Ok, mistery solved, what did I win ? ;)

a Brazilian nut !

:)


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