Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

There is no property tax in the UK, unlike the US. Council tax is not property tax as its not based on a percentage of valuation.

please stick to topic

This seems cheap. Pip, it looks as if you are right about prices for some areas of Warsaw - 5000PLN/m2 unless I am misunderstanding it. Seems realistic in price if not far from Warsaw and not shared ownership.

asbud.com/inwestycja/twoje-osiedle-bialoleka/prezentacja/prezentacja

I'm almost tempted to say bye bye to Wroclaw if the prices are that low in Warsaw.

and prices have to go down a lot more.

And here they might, if Wroc gets downgraded -

So Fitch rates Wroclaw above Spain and Italy, must be in big trouble then!!!! That news is going to make all the Polish property sellers drop their prices by at least 90%. Perhaps they will give the houses and flats away to avoid the huge property taxes?.oh, I forgot!!!...there are no huge property taxes.

I'm just wondering that if indeed the outlook is accurately forecast as negative in a town or city, that does usually lead to a slump in property prices if unemployment climbs. Anecdotally, people have told me there are few jobs. Without knowing their qualifications etc, I can't say if that's just their viewpoint or fact. I can say there's b*gger-all for me but that's because I have no in-demand quals and don't speak Polish, so the silence was deafening when I made enquiries with employers. It does at the moment look a bit like the prices are going south - but the caveat is whether that's just a summer lull and also might depend on whether the NBP cut rates.

I also read that the gov of Poland were wondering if they should rescue some of the construction sector that's troubled (I'm not sure what sort of construction they're talking about). Interesting crossroads now!!!

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski told reporters that Poland should refrain from supporting troubled builders as they operate in free market conditions.

I agree fock them

I dont think they will cut rates at the moment - would damage the zloty which is having a real shaky few months. Probably going to be autumn before any rate cut even considered.

I hope they don't cut them at all, autumn is no good either.

By coincidence on what I was saying above regarding summer lulls - Gazeta Wyborca Wroc is saying prices have fallen. This is an online translation of a small extract of the article. Not sure if we're allowed to post in excess of this length from a copyright source and machine translating is not something I like to rely on.


Source and more...
wroclaw.gazeta.pl/wroclaw/1,95327,12124445,Latem_ceny_zakupu_i_wynajmu_mieszkan_sa_nizsze.html#ixzz20W8Jo8r6

It also mentions (if the online translator is correct) prices down 10-15% on negotiation for sales, and 20% down for rentals.

although it is directly linked to the value of a property - in the UK.

When prices are higher, people spend more money. When prices start falling, they no longer have the extra money to spend. This causes economic chaos. It's the flattening of the bubble that causes things like recessions and depressions.

Not really, they only have less money to spend if the interest rate on their mortgages increase.


Rubbish, negative equity contributes granted - buts thats not the reason.

When housing prices fall, no more refinancing and it's harder to get the value of the mortgage out of selling the house. If it's an apartment, it means the owner will get less each month for rent. If he gets less, he spends less. This has a ripple effect in the economy.

Its a small ripple Plastic.

Not many are fortunate enough to own rental property.

You said "economic chaos" i say "hardly". Its more of a problem in the US and UK - leading capitalist economies.

So there are no high rise apartment buildings anywhere in Poland?

Price wise? Doenst make any difference in Poland, you cant take Poland's property market and link it in anyway shape or form to recession.

property bubbles lead to short term personal wealth, unless one is savvy enough to ride the bubble ie. buy low sell high it has little significance on the grand scheme.

Bubble's are a byproduct of recession, not the other way round.

I think you will find that these are "civil engineering" firms. They build/maintain roads, hospitals, schools etc, government projects. The government has a budget, these firms price low to keep getting the contracts, they go over budget and invariably get into trouble. Chinese getting kicked off the A2 motorway ring a bell. The Government brags about saving 2 billion on the tender and then wonders why the project does not get finished. Same with the A4, nobody worked on section between Bochina and Tarnow last year as the contractor had not been paid, a whole year wasted.

There are only a few firms in Poland able to handle projects of this size, you cannot shaft all of them. (as much as you would like to Milky}

Bubbles are by products of housing booms.

yes, fueled by growing economies, shrinking economy = decline in property prices. Except in Poland, well......for the moment anyway.

downgrade in economy = deflating/burst bubble, except in Poland...for the moment anyway. Its hard to attach this to Poland considering the billions of EU money poring in.

... I haven't a comprehensive list of who is who, but PBG (as mentioned in the article above*) do have a residential construction division ...


*"Poland could support insolvent builder PBG via PLN 385 million"

Is it substantiated?

Corrected for you dude.

You should apply for a job at google.
google.com/jobs/students/emea/spotlightwroclaw

Very loosely.

In some US states its 8% per year, council tax on a average million pound house is no where near £80K and trivial in comparison. In fact council tax is based on bands - so rising house prices do NOT increase he tax you pay as all prices rise together. You pay more RELATIVELY than a cheaper house but the absolute amount is always approximately the same and doesn't rise and fall with prices.

It would not make any difference if they were losing billions on the civils That's where you are talking about huge amounts of money.

So a few months ago you were saying no developers were going bust but now that they start to go bust you say they were the wrong kind of developers. Let me guess, Poland is different :)

In fact PBG's housing operations are not massive, only 8 developments, but neither are they tiny.

Nobody picked up on yesterday's Gazeta Wyborcza article showing not only good data on falling asking prices and real falls compared bto inflation but also that the gap between asking prices and achieved is now getting very wide - a 9% difference for a 2 room place. In some towns then really big differences e.g a studio in Wroclaw 18%, in Warsaw 14%. (in Gdansk bizarrely its 2% higher !).

Dont worry, its just a levelling out.

I don' think anybody said that there were no developers going bust. The crap ones will always continue no matter what the economy.

Thank you for posting another tip off about newspapers indicating falling prices, it's appreciated! I couldn't find it, an article with a likely title led to a story about investors buying property in Poland

But this article, about developers "quickly slashing" their prices, I did find:


There is a link in the GW 'Economy' section translated to English as "Polish real estate market feeling the pinch"

In the first half of 2012 . The real estate market in Central and Eastern Europe concluded investment transactions totaling nearly 2.1 billion euros, of which Poland accounted for up to 854 million - announced advisory firm CBRE. The largest contract in the region was the sale of ING Real Estate Development Warsaw Golden Terraces shopping center . AXA Real Estate and CBRE Property Fund Central Europe paid for 475 million euros.

- but it loads the investors story described above if clicked.

Avalon has said that on many occasions somewhere in the depths of this thread.