Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

businessweek.com/news/2012-07-04/poland-leaves-rate-unchanged-as-euro-crisis-damps-growth

good read.

they already have

so what is it. they are dropping or they will skyrocket? the prices are inflated from 2008, 2009 and now they are dropping. Or have you decided this is not accurate either.

From my perspective they already have gone up considerably, but then I thought the UK was already a bubble in '05... ! And we know many thought the same in '02 after the stimulus you mentioned propelled prices then!


My view too, but see above and the UK '02 to '07. London prices now make '07 seem cheap.

My flat in Battersea is worth the same it was in 2006.

When you get back, you might find people willing to pay more - people report quite an increase since '07 in many places. You might even find a leaflet pinned to the notice board in the hall from a Greek or Chinese speculator offering megabucks to anyone who wants to sell. I checked my old N London area - a lot on the price since '06.

“A sharp disagreement about the direction of policy has become apparent, with both rate hikes and rate cuts being considered,” Michal Dybula, an emerging-market strategist at BNP Paribas in Warsaw, said by phone before the rate decision. “Growth is slowing and the outlook is weak, so we no longer forecast a hike, while inflation bouncing back above 4 percent in the summer will support MPC hawks.”.

Anyone who considers there will be growth in the Polish real estate market over the the next three years is seriously deluded. There is a massive underbelly of debt which is slowly coming to the surface, it is rumored that every second house is for sale in Konstancin, it takes over 8 months to sell a flat/apartment at discounted rates in Warsaw and two years to sell a house in the current market. Prices are valued in Euro and exchanged into PLN, Polish real estate has no liquidity, it can not be considered as the same asset class as London or Paris, things will get worse over the next 12 months as the high of Euro2012 has now gone. It may be possible to lease commercial, although leasing is not selling, the residential market is in line for a re-correction. All this talk of ' bubble' or 'not bubble' is just Semantics. Real estate in Poland is over valued based on the fact no one is buying and there is no liquidity in the market.


There is absolutely no comparison between London and Warsaw/Krakow/Wroclaw, London is a highly liquid real estate market and prices have grown significantly since the 08 Crisis began, a colleague of mine has been gazumped twice in the last 12 months while buying in London,

That's where all the brand spanking new cars are coming from, and the shopping malls pretty busy (except the electrical shops, not so busy)? I've never seen so many new cars in my life outside of N London as I do here. Even my 19-21 yr old neighbour has a 1 year old Merc and I kid you not. He does not work more than the occasional unskilled temp role every now and then,

Everyone's a ' yuppie' and it will all end in tears as it did everywhere else. What may people forget is Banks and financial institutions are in the business of selling ' debt '

Yes, thrust into my hand by a young lady student working for one of the banks was yet another leaflet offering me a loan. Posters are here and there around this city offering 300zl to 6000zl in hours from small brokers or the Polish version of payday loans etc. Pawn shop man tells me things are tough out there - but I have to be honest and say I am still seeing busy bees and a buzz of prosperity here - real or borrowed.

That can be seen in the Black population in the UK. Low housing costs means money for cars is available, afro-Caribbeans often live in council property which is cheap.

Anyone know the URL for the sold prices of properties/homes in Poland where the public can check what somewhere sold for previously, the Polish version of Net House Prices in the UK...?

Just knock 15-25% of asking price and keep asking until you get yes.

Every week in the Gazeta W they list sold prices for the previous week.

I was hoping for a website that shows prices going back 5 or 10 years, like we have in the UK, such as

nethouseprices.com/index.php?con=sold_prices_street_detail&locality=LONDON&town=LONDON&street=WATFORD+WAY&year=All&house_style=All&house_age=All&house_type=All&search_radius=&northingToSearch=&eastingToSearch=&cCode=EW&outcode=NW7&incode=2PU&ord er=&price_min=&price_max=&start_limit=160&curPage=9

I'm with Warszawski on this one, as much as i don't like it and it doesn't suit me. Its just more shite cake that the Poles and investors have to swallow im afraid.


Why? its not going to show anything other than unsubstantiated growth.

Yep, I agree.

I expect things to get worse next year, with the end of the high from the football and the end of the 2007-2013 E.U. funds.

Unless Poland gets more E.U. funds, I believe they put in a bid with Sweden for more finances and the E.U. will probably give them more since it was mostly spent on what it should have been spent on.

Does anyone have any information on the next E.U. funds?

Obviously I want to see what the prices were a year ago, 5 years ago, etc, so I can see what's what and either hazard a guess on how much I would be overpaying or try to calculate where prices may go next. Unsubstantiated growth is not the issue - the issue is what did someone else pay in year x, year y, year z.

Fcuking is.

If you know of a site that can show me the prices of individual properties from past years' transactions (sold, not asking prices) it woud be appreciated. I like to know what I'm overpaying, ie the 'unsubstantiated growth' premium or whatever we could call it. I know, we can call it Brian.

i dont know of any sites listing those details. I can tell you from my experience and taking into account one specific central Wroclaw development that prices were listed and sold at the following.

2005 5500 PLN / m2 (selling very well)
2006 6500 PLN / m2 (sold like hot cakes)
2007 9000 PLN / m2 (still selling)
2008 11000 PLN / m2 (gradual slow down)
2009 11000 PLN / m2 (virtually nothing sold)
2010 no idea
2011 7500 PLN / m2 (virtually nothing sold)

All first quarter

and for 2000,,---- 2004???????????????/

Okay, thanks for that, it all helps me to try to get a feel for the market.
I recall one of the posters above said that the market is driven by cash-rich speculators in the main. If the banks here were to loosen lending further. or the NBP was to drop IRs like the ECB, BofE, Fed have - would that not cause a surge upwards in prices just like happened in the UK, Eire, USA? People tend to look at the monthly repayment cost in the UK, not the price of the house, so they kept buying even when prices were already stupid. In London and some other areas, prices are now even higher than when prices seemed really stupid between 2005 and 2007. In fact, a lot of people understandably thought prices were already crackers by late 2002. Between 2002 and 2007, crackers went bonkers. Since 2007 bonkers went mega-barking in many areas including my own and the parts of London I'm familiar with (not sure about Battersea).


Before he lived there or made a note of prices? Or before it was built?

The REAS reports seems to have accurate figures. residentialadvisors.eu

Q2 report will probably come out in a couple of weeks, I'll just say that asking prices in central Krakow have fallen substantially this year.

Thanks Peter, but I want specifics, I suppose there is no such site in Poland. Maybe I will pop into one of the EA offices and see if they can reveal such a site to me. If not, will got to an RP office and see if they know of one.

( What I really want to know is if, for example, if Flat 7 at 100 Cherry Way, Wroclaw which is now for sale at 440,000PLN sold for 500,000PLN in 2007 or 200,000PLN in 2007, etc etc. )

I do know there was a premature inflation prior to Poland's EU accession around 2003 but that quickly stabilized itself, not so many people actually took the bait then (bought) so no problem with the pricing restructure.

When you look at the history with other countries property booms its no wonder what happened in Poland actually happened. The stage was set - the big boy companies made billions on emerging property market speculations way ahead of the curve in other emerging countries. Poland was the next nest egg, the next big thing. One of the major factors which made the property market in Poland boom so appealing (unlike Bulgaria or Hungary for example) was that the indigenous population bought into the speculation as well. It could never be sustained based on the economic situation and this is exactly what we are all witnessing right now.

Average wages in Poland at x amount with average property prices at x amount, no way. Stubborn, overly exposed owner/investor asking prices are the only thing keeping from a major crash.

There's some other country where the multiples remain stubbornly high (wages out of step with property prices) and not just the South of England and London - was it China on 8x salary?

economonitor.com/blog/2010/08/andy-xie-on-chinas-empty-apartments
That's just prawn crackers.

China is a special case. Chinese people have no where else to invest except in property (its illegal to take money out of the country) and there is a lot of money sloshing about - many people have 3+ apartments for their pension funds.

Nothing to do with a billion people then weg, with the rich being the top 1% and having money to throw around? in a truly thriving economy....

Waiting for a bus today I was counting flash cars - I know this is a big city and I shouldn't wonder such things, but I saw brand new cars and very expensive Mercs driven by young women. They can't all be driving their husbands' cars. There seems to be a lot of money about here, I fear it will prop up prices beyond my comfortable reach, I'm beginning to wonder if I will not miss the boat to use that awful cliche if I hang around too long. I want to be wrong because I feel it will stretch me into the financial danger zone if I buy at these levels, yet I don't want a 2005 situation again where I am left kicking myself.