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Poland's apartment prices continue to fall


Harry  
11 Jun 2012 /  #871
It's actually one of the reasons that prices have neither gone down as far or as fast as they should (some people are simply not selling their properties, as they believe that the market price is for some reason below the 'real' value of their property, and that limitation of supply is keeping prices artificially higher than they should be).
Wroclaw Boy  
11 Jun 2012 /  #872
Thats evidently bullocks, as if it wasn't prices would never gone down.

Harrys onto a winner there weg, obviously you cant take it 100% literally, there will be room for slight negotiation. The main thing keeping the market where its at are stubborn property owners/developers. I think Poles see it as a loss/weakness, they havent been through traditional boom bust property scenarios like we have.
OP peterweg  37 | 2305  
11 Jun 2012 /  #873
It's actually one of the reasons that prices have neither gone down as far or as fast as they should

The falls are, in reality, high. Prices in Poland are falling faster than many other EU countries.
Wroclaw Boy  
11 Jun 2012 /  #874
Some EU countries perhaps.

On a side note: if Poles had taken the correct property hit when it should have actually happened then they would have been somewhere back to property equilibrium right now, as it is nobody really has a friggen clue. Personally I think they are just delaying the inevitable and the market will continue to slowly decrease over the next year or so.
milky  13 | 1656  
11 Jun 2012 /  #875
Harrys onto a winner there weg,

The consistent downfall in the last 12 months, prove that this theory, that was invented in attempts to rationalise the stagnant period:is a myth.
Since the peak in places like lodz and Poznan,prices are down 32% and 25%.
The mythical Polish trait of "refusal to put down prices" is now up there with the Irish mythology of "the soft landing" in house prices. Both myths perpetuated by the seller.

The falls are, in reality, high. Prices in Poland are falling faster than many other EU countries. ( FACT)
kristofer24  - | 1  
11 Jun 2012 /  #876
in Krakow prices are all same what was before
milky  13 | 1656  
11 Jun 2012 /  #877
ober-haus Real Estate advisors

Krakow down 13.6 % from peak
Harry  
11 Jun 2012 /  #878
Which is rather different to the '20%+ fall' between September of last year and the September of this year which a certain somebody whose name starts with M was predicting back in September of last year.
milky  13 | 1656  
11 Jun 2012 /  #879
prices down between 10 -32 % and going down at least 1 % a month overall, every month.
One thing for certain: I was right and I am right.
Harry  
11 Jun 2012 /  #880
The one thing which is certain is that you were at best economical with the truth and you are at best economical with the truth. The reality is as follows: Katowice up year-on-year 17.25%, Kraków up 6.57%, Poznań up 5.74%, Warsaw up 7.50%, Wrocław up 1.57%, Trójmiasto up 2.98%, Poland up 3.80%.

And because I'm not you, I'll give a source to back my post:
tabelaofert.pl/real-estate-prices?locale=en
OP peterweg  37 | 2305  
11 Jun 2012 /  #881
Try giving a credible source.

For instance,

residentialadvisors.eu
InWroclaw  89 | 1910  
11 Jun 2012 /  #882
Wrocław up 1.57%,

Doesn't seem that way here, not sure what category of property that applies to, although prices aren't tumbling fast they don't seem to be in the ascendancy at all. Not so far, anyway
OP peterweg  37 | 2305  
11 Jun 2012 /  #883
Doesn't seem that way here,

Prices are falling in Krakow.
InWroclaw  89 | 1910  
11 Jun 2012 /  #884
I don't know what they're asking, but there's a house and a flat on the side of Krzyki near what was the drama academy, and new church - I think they have both been for sale for 18 months. Whether the vendor has dropped the price or stubbornly refused as Harry suggests I couldn't tell you, but they're certainly not sold so far. Also quite a few with the for rent signs locally and in the Rynek, for some months. (Banners on balconies or windows is how I know.)
Avalon  4 | 1063  
11 Jun 2012 /  #885
in Krakow prices are all same what was before

Prices are falling in Krakow.

Krakow down 13.6 % from peak

Whom to believe?

We have all agreed that prices between 2004 - 2008 increased by over 100% so a 13.6% fall in prices from peak is still only a correction, and not a very big one at that. It still means you are going to need one hell of a mortgage to buy one. Even with cash, I cannot see a seller knocking another 90% off but you can always live in hope.
delphiandomine  86 | 17823  
11 Jun 2012 /  #886
Yes that is ridiculous but it is also very common.

Very very common, I'd say. There is a very weird habit of being afraid to take less money - I've seen it in other areas, too.

I reckon the problem will get worse as Babcia dies - more and more young people (without a clue) will suddenly inherit property and will demand ridiculous prices.

One can only hope that the forthcoming reforms coming in real estate agencies will change things dramatically.
InWroclaw  89 | 1910  
12 Jun 2012 /  #887
Was just checking the direct (not via agents) rentals on Gumtree and seemed to me the prices were down - more were sub 1500 than last week when I last checked. I was thinking perhaps this was a blip and I wouldn't post here but then I saw one reduced from 1600 to 1200 a month and that encouraged me to post this anecdote. I would post a link but I may go view it, sorry about that!
delphiandomine  86 | 17823  
12 Jun 2012 /  #888
It could be that the real estate agents are getting very afraid - and thus they're dropping prices now to make more money before the law changes.

(the law will change soon - and the profession will become deregulated)
InWroclaw  89 | 1910  
12 Jun 2012 /  #889
What will the reforms and deregulation mean for consumers? What will agents do/not do differently? Deregulation usually means a relaxing of rules, does this mean there will be more people setting up a business as an estate agent/real estate agentrealtor?
milky  13 | 1656  
12 Jun 2012 /  #890
Deregulation

The word's meaning depends on the user.
OP peterweg  37 | 2305  
12 Jun 2012 /  #891
We have all agreed that prices between 2004 - 2008 increased by over 100% so a 13.6% fall in prices from peak is still only a correction, and not a very big one at that. It still means you are going to need one hell of a mortgage to buy one.

Thats complete and utter rubbish. The rise in prices was 258%

Go back to school and learn how to multiply - it is not the same as addition.

I explained compound interest to you here

Polish apartment prices continue to fall

Read it and understand it. How on earth did you survive in the building industry without learning maths?
Avalon  4 | 1063  
12 Jun 2012 /  #892
We have all agreed that prices between 2004 - 2008 increased by over 100%.

Thats complete and utter rubbish. The rise in prices was 258%

So, is 258% not more than 100%?

How on earth did you survive in the building industry without learning maths?

I survived by thinking first and then making a comment, I also did not pretend to know everything about everything.

Keep going, you are making yourself look a bigger prcik with every post.
milky  13 | 1656  
12 Jun 2012 /  #893
Thats complete and utter rubbish. The rise in prices was 258%

This is correct, by saying at least/by over 100% Avalon is hiding the fact that there is a bubble.
Peterweg is correct to point this out.
Ziemowit  14 | 3936  
12 Jun 2012 /  #894
So, is 258% not more than 100%?

When I'm reading "over 100%", I am thinking of something between 100% and 150%, typically 100-120%, but definitely not of 250%! A very curious logic behind this statement. Yes, 258% is more than 100%, but that is also more than 10%, so why not tell 10% rather than 100% to compare it to 258%? Any explanation for that?
milky  13 | 1656  
12 Jun 2012 /  #895
He wants people to avoid the big picture.
Wroclaw Boy  
12 Jun 2012 /  #896
what did property secrets used to call it? the 200% club....
Avalon  4 | 1063  
12 Jun 2012 /  #897
This is correct, by saying at least/by over 100% Avalon is hiding the fact that there is a bubble.

Another one that cannot read.
Where did I say "at least". If I had said 145%, 176%, 258%, people on this forum would argue as to the exact definition of how these figures were reached as all the available sources, contradict each other. I made a statement and it does not matter whether the figure is 200%, 300%, 900%. Your figure of 13.6%, taken from any of the percentages over 100% is small, certainly not a crash in prices. Even if your figure is correct, prices would still have to fall another 46.4% to be in line with your prediction of 2009.

This would then be 40% above the 2004 figures, which, you would still pretend is a bubble. Do any of the posters on here, really believe that prices will fall another 46%? Has anyone seen any evidence of the Polish economy tanking to such an extent?

I sold a large 120 m2 flat last month (completion on July 1st) for 290,000 (developers standard, built 2 years ago) I let the young couple (both work in Norway) have it for 290,000 although the asking price was 299,000. No agency was involved so I basically knocked off the agency fee for them. It cost me next to nothing.

The flat was cheap at that price and I was not prepared to negotiate any further discount, I would rather give it to one of my wife's family than drop 50%.

How on earth did you survive in the building industry without learning maths?

Being good at what I do and making lots of money? What have you ever done, besides living off your Polish girlfriend?

Yes, 258% is more than 100%, but that is also more than 10%, so why not tell 10% rather than 100% to compare it to 258%? Any explanation for that?

Yes, see my post above. The important figure is the "13.6%", not the percentage rises of different types of property as these can vary enormously.

Milky's prediction of a 50-60% prediction of falls in prices have not happened. I am not saying that the luxury end of the market has not seen substantial price reductions but his has not occurred at the lower end.
OP peterweg  37 | 2305  
12 Jun 2012 /  #898
Any explanation for that?

He's no good at maths.

Where did I say "at least". If I had said 145%, 176%, 258%, people on this forum would argue as to the exact definition of how these figures were reached as all the available sources,

And a very loose interpretation of numbers and logic.

What have you ever done, besides living off your Polish girlfriend?

Hmm, living off a student nurse with a 500pln a month grant or my 20k per month wage. With your maths skills, I guess you would think thats possible.
Avalon  4 | 1063  
12 Jun 2012 /  #899
He's no good at maths.

There is nothing wrong with my maths skills. But, if you really want to get personal, would you like me to dig out your posts and maybe we can try and understand how somebody who boasts about going to university, can barely put a sentence together without leaving out ''articals" and as WB puts it, "waffles" on, inanely.

Hmm, living off a student nurse with a 500pln a month grant or my 20k per month wage.

You stated previously that the flat in Krakow is owned by your girlfriend and the farm is owned by her parents. Does that leave you with a mortgage? or are you paying rent? For someone that does not own property in Poland, you know a lot about it, probably as much as Milky from the sound of it.
FUZZYWICKETS  8 | 1878  
12 Jun 2012 /  #900
You stated previously that the flat in Krakow is owned by your girlfriend and the farm is owned by her parents. Does that leave you with a mortgage? or are you paying rent?

which is probably something that helps push down apartment prices in Poland (just trying to stay on topic here).

those old commie blocks and 100 year old houses in "the village" are breaking down and people aren't filling them like they used to (not to mention the country's youth is moving to the cities to find jobs) and now, people have to actually PAY for their homes. I swear, half the posters on this forum seem to be living in their grandparents' home or their girlfriend's/wife's parents' home or something to that nature and skating by rent/mortgage free.

at some point, poland will realize that life on their salaries simply isn't sustainable when everyone has a mortgage/rent payment. then they'll also realize that 27 is too late to be getting your first job.

foreign developers are going to make gagillions in Poland in the future.

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