Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

Anything -50% or more would be catastrophic and very unlikely, IMO. Although if prices continue to fall for a couple of years inflation will make Poznan close to that.

Totally true,as an Irish person originally from the border of the 6 counties, I feel confident that it's an illegal occupation, and, yes, it's time to move on, I agree entirely,move on but only toward a United Ireland. "Moving on" as in accepting the border is like asking the Palestinian to move on and accept the Israeli domination. The border was founded on the threat of genocidal attack by the Brits and sustained by gerrymandering.


Bottomless postmodern argument. Like a Pole forgiving Hiitler/Stalin with with a shrug "ah sure we're all evil". Tiocfaidh ar la


No one knows the future but their is a wold recession so bubble and buckets of easy money may not be the future.

Not true:-

"this was a political decision to steal from foreigners to try to save the Spanish economy."

The links you provide refer to developers and bank guarantees, how is this a political decision? All this points out is that there was a failure of governmental regulation, the same as the banks in the States, Ireland and the UK. I see none of these governments taking responsibility so why should the Spanish. Even now, some two years into the crises for Spain, the Spanish government still have no idea of the total debts which are owed in the provinces. The markets are still jittery because they believe that the small provincial banks have not fully written down these debts.


Milky, you get sadder by the day. The only company that does not take a risk (Gamble) and has the biggest turnover per year is the Inland Revenue. And before you ask, No,you cannot buy shares in it.

By the way, I have been reading some of your old posts from 2009, you have actually toned down the rhetoric rants about criminality, right wing scum etc. have you realised now that property is not going to fall to 1500 m2 no matter how much you wish it?

I have given my view along with cms and others for the end of this year,overall in the coming years 50-60% drop from peak for sure.

If you want to dig up an old discussion at least provide the links so I can see what you are talking about.


The rate wages are increasing in Poland will make that almost impossible.

27th August 2011, its your post.

Peterweg


If you are bullish about wages or acknowledge they are rising, which would be inflationary, then unemployment must also be falling. In that case, what sort of fall in prices are you expecting? Rising wages due to low unemployment are not heralds of property price crashes. Is it mortgage constraints that you consider will be the catalyst or rising interest rates?

If there were to be no upward movement of rates, rising wages and low unemployment, then I would be far less certain of a continued price correction downwards.

Nonsense, there is as much as 40 % of the age-group 24 to 35(also the main property purchasing age) working abroad, and there is an international crisis with a double dip on the way. If even 50% of these people return unemployment will sky rocket. The general message from the media is that the Poles are returning, due to the growing unemployment in the West.

Will they return to Poland and buy properties? Will they live in rented accommodation? Will landlords buy flats to let out to returning Poles?

There are a number of questions to be addressed to gauge the likely severtity of any continued downturn.

What I do not understand is it would appear that PeterWeg is pessimistic about property prices, yet bullish about wages. These would seem contrasting viewpoints.

These are the question that only time will answer;also,will some just have to move back in with their parents,due the the impossibilities of the Polish economical situation. As With Magda below:

"You know, I would go back to Poland and then what? I would get 570 Polish zlotys per month (€139). I would have to move back to my parents (who) live in a village. No, I prefer to stay here", the 28-year-old female said.

irishcentral.com/story/roots/ireland_calling/polish-immigrant-becomes-most-famous-pole-in-ireland-after-botched-article-138924189.html


Maybe he is simply giving his honest opinion. I feel that he is one of the more balanced/rational people on here.

Yes, I agree, a number of them will just have to go and move back to their parent(s) or family home. But, some Poles in the UK have done very well financially - they became very well paid managers or self-employed in Britain. If they lose their jobs or tire of the UK, they probably do have enough money to buy in Poland if they choose to return rather than go to Germany or elsewhere

No contrast, when you have property 5-8x average earnings its so un-affordable prices can/will fall and wages will rise. They will meet in the middle, with interest rates (and availability) being the deciding factor.


Its seems (my theory) there can be quite high unemployment and increasing wages in Poland because of lousy infrastructure making jobs inaccessible.

The big "if" and some Poles,for examples in Ireland got stung, and are now up to their eyeballs in negative equity, and doomed never to return;even though the initial idea of purchasing was to make a quick buck and get back home asap with their crock of celtic gold. I think a lot of (Poles)people who did well have already purchased property in (2005-07)Poland. The people who went in the last 3 or so years are scraping the barrel or living of the fat of the land.

Wage rises cause inflation, inflation supports property prices for the most part - unless there is sufficient unemployment


A number of non natives do just walk away from their debts in the UK - somehow they manage to give creditors the slip. That can't happen in Eire? It was in the British media a month or two ago that non Britons were running up tens of thousands in debts and then absconding from the UK, sometimes returning and doing it all over again. I can't find the news link right now. Here are related links.

immigrationmatters.co.uk/crackdown-on-immigration-fraud-%E2%80%93-banks-and-ukba-to-share-information-on-debtors.html
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7912548.stm
askmrcreditcard.com/creditcardblog/can-credit-card-companies-go-after-you-if-you-leave-the-country
uk.answers.yahoo/question/index?qid=20090903135139AAN01h8
birminghampost.net/birmingham-business/birmingham-business-news/financial-business-news/2009/09/24/foreigners-flocking-to-uk-to-clear-debts-quicker-65233-24768097

emmerson.pl/grafika/5365.pdf

this is a link to what happened in 2011 and expectations of 2012.

and another

ober-haus.pl/files/pl/files/pl/reports/aktualne/Poland%202011.pdf

I didn't even open them.. beware of reports by real estate companies. I remember how good they all looked before things went to sht here.

Thank you, Pip

I might be reading it wrong, but it seems you have supplied a sales organisation's newsletter and they suggest property prices are to fall?

From the first link ---
"Main factors influencing market perspectives in the next months
– Demand
- Further exacerbation of the credit policy of banks granting mortgage loans – new regulations of the ‘S recommendation”
will come into force in January 2012, limitation of the debt carrying capacity, especially for the € loans
- Further limitation of the accessibility of the „Family on its own” („Rodzina na Swoim”) Programme – lower price limits
- Uncertain situation on the international financial markets, increasing investment uncertainty, waiting and withholding
mood towards making decisions with long-time consequences + media information on lowering housing prices and bigger
and bigger offer of residential developers = postponing decisions on buying dwellings and on incurring mortgage loans
- Part of potential buyers may postpone its decisions until the “Developer’s Act” comes into force.
Main factors influencing market perspectives in the next months – Prices
- Oversupply of dwellings in relation"

Just by the by: In the UK, during the major property crash of the 1990s and the boom of the 1980s, major newspapers carried stories of a never-ending boom, no bubbles, recovery around the corner, etc etc. It didn't happen - there was a bubble, there was a much longer crash than their reams of reports forecast, things were very bleak indeed even if trying to sell in London.

yes- but I have never said otherwise. I have always had the opinion that the prices will drop and then level out---not crash like many ill informed say here.

another important issue is the regulations in banking. I have also said this before--the U.S got hit hard in the housing industry through this whole recession- Canada didn't. In fact- Canada barely had any problems in housing.---this is because of the strict regulations of the Canadian banking system.

Same issues in Poland. It is not easy to get a mortgage here- it is like a rectal exam, it took us over two months to get approved for a mortgage- and we were not first time home buyers.

This 'Family on its own' BS just helped to prolong the overpricing, its limitation will reduce prices significantly this year.

Coming from you, that's a classic reference.

lol and you're a developer so your opinion is (BS)worthless, but provides a laugh.

so quick to discredit those who are in the industry. What makes you such an expert?

Well my expert advice is don't ask a barber whether or not you need a haircut.
Or, don't listen to crack dealers when they tell you its not addictive if you have a strong personality.

The one major thing which cause prices to rise is rising prices - positive feed back. Similarly, failing prices discourage purchases in a negative feedback loop.

What will cause the fall to level out and and what level? The answer to both is affordability. Which means a 50% fall in price/wage ratio. Thats a crash.

In all fairness pip, he has had lots off debates with his mates down the pub and he has been making predictions for the past three years. He also has lots of friends of friends who keep him informed of the current situation in the property market and he has "always" discredited "anyone" that is involved in the property market or who has disagreed with him.

I will make my own prediction. In a few weeks he will reactivate an old thread with "What's happening with the property bubble in Poland" or "anyone got the housing sales figures for the last quarter". The only thing predictable is Milky.

I have no idea who these people are, but they call Poland's market the second worst in Europe
and claim >10% falls in 2011

globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/Price-History

For Wroclaw, they suggest 31% fall in real terms since peak

I have no firm idea on these figures, anecdotally I think prices are down a bit, yes. Some would say more than a bit, depends where you look.

But!! if anyone bothers to read the threads, they will realize that you were just spouting salesman jargon.

Peterweg, Milky.

This is what I call a crash.:-
youtube.com/watch?v=ccJp6C1xdZ8

If you are so convinced that there is a crash in the Polish property market, perhaps you could provide a link showing this, not words but newsreel or video where whole estates/towns are empty and I do not mean the odd apartment block.

Then, I will agree with you. Construction in Spain has all but stopped dead. They are still building in Poland. Is that a FACT Milky, or not?

they are still building in Warsaw and Tricity. Other cities?

Avalon, I think that's an old video, at least 4 years. Soto del Henares is making progress, albeit slowly. A hospital has already been built.

They've learned their lesson and are not pushing it on foreign speculators any more, but cater it to local population by providing more job opportunities.