Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

a few questions.

What do you do that makes you think you are an expert in Polish real estate?
Where do you live that makes you an expert in Polish real estate?
What experience do you have that makes you an expert in Polish real estate?

Here is what I know. My husband works in real estate. He is probably the top producer in Warsaw- yes I am bragging but he knows what the fcuk he is doing. His clients are Polish, German, American, British and other countries. Has spoken in conferences for commercial and residential- the guest speaker in the residential section said there was no bubble.

I work indirectly in the residential sector- I am an interior designer- my clients are those that have new construction homes/flats- private clients and builders- I design the space they live in.

I have heard from builders and those that work for them that the market has changed. There was never any question. People are buying but they are not going big. They are starting small. The prices have gone down. There was never any question about that either. They have gone down to reflect the current market. The market is saturated and therefore the prices are going down.

If there is anybody on this forum that listens to the complete crap that this person keeps spewing over and over again- hopefully at one point you will see that he/she is wrong. completely wrong.

And no matter how many times you try to discredit me or others- there is no way your stance will ever be correct.

With Poland being the only country in the EU not to be going through a recession is it so difficult to believe that there is no housing bubble here either?

Give your head a shake.

jesus, I am being made to look like some nouveau riche ***** who just follows blindly to what my husband has told me to say. When in actuality I work in the sector - on my own. I have nothing to gain by saying what I am saying. Nothing. I know the market- it is my job to know what is happening in the residential sector so that I can benefit also. It is important to know what is selling and for how much. By saying what I am saying doesn't make a client hire me faster and I don't get a kick back from anybody.

How could any developer charge 600 m2 for that? It is not possible. It is cheaper to just give the flats away for free than go through all the hassle.

Pip

You, your husband and Avalon are involved in real estate, which makes you opinion worthless, especially when you make counter-intuitive and nonsensical claims about the state of the market.

Is this the IT consultant talking or just the village idiot?

I'd take the village idiot's advice over that of anyone involved in real estate. Stupid advice is better that bare-faced lies.

And you are claiming they are lies based on what proof- wikipedia?

By your very logic you shouldn't listen to what a dr says because they work in the market? nor any other professional because they are involved in their market profession- that is dumb arse logic? doesn't make sense- surely those involved in the market know the most about it- including privy information that others may not know.

surfing the internet and finding facts to support your cause is not difficult. type in any random phrase and you fill find somebody who supports it and somebody who doesn't- it is those in the field that know the truth.


clearly.

I guess the greatest evidence of measurement is to actually see those who are successful in real estate- residential. buying and selling. private people who have made money in real estate, guess what, we are. but then obviously I don't know what I am talking about. must have been a fluke.

The way it has turned out, especially in Ireland, it has become quite apparent that the bulk of developers were a glorified version of the village idiot.


They are actually called "positive strokes of the art or coercion."


No , by his advice, you shouldn't listen to a representative of McDonalds if you want reliable information on nutrition and what is best for your children.

Never ask a barber is your hair too long.

Please don't go attacking McDonalds now, is nothing sacred. Supersize me, one of top misleading films everywhere. It isn’t the healthiest food, but it really isn’t that bad (with the salad instead of the fries).

Regardless, of course if you call a crash, you will eventually be right. I always liked the analogy that even a broken clock is right twice.

Polish real estate is still viewed as attractive to developers/investors (compared to other countries). Of course these leads to the situation of over-supply and an ultimate fall in prices.

As an investor, I wouldn't buy Polish real estate, as a person who wanted to own his own home, I bought.
Milky, I think you would fall into my group, good luck at identifying the bottom (but I agree with waiting for further decreases).
Regarding renting, I rented my first 10 years in Poland - my landlord was absolutely perfect, I actually miss her sometimes. I also substantially reduced the rent over 10 years - she had the attitude that it is better to have a good tenant for less money than a bad tenant or changing tenants or no tenant for more money - but this isn't the common view of landlords in Poland.

If prices did fall by any significant level, there is an enormous amount of money on the sidelines waiting to take advantage of this situation.

I don't think the opinion of real estate people is worthless and have never said that. More that it should be viewed with caution. Regarding your keynote speaker - he is hardly going to stand up at a real estate conference and say the market is way too high and its time to sell.

The difference to a doctor is that he has nothing to gain by overhyping your condition (at least in the public sector !) and also that to be a doctor you need to be qualified and understand the techical aspects of your job. I am surprized by the amount of real estate people in Poland that dont understand basic valuation concepts - discounted cash flows, yields, vacancy rates, case-schiller measurements etc.

What is your evidence that the commercial sector is getting better ? Totally at odds with my own understanding

warehouse/industrial (where I have most experience) - rents, occupancy and purchase costs are all going down.
retail (where I have quite a lot of experience) - rents going down sharply everywhere except Warsaw, vacancy going up sharply and it appears a huge number of white elephant shopping centres being built in the provinces.

office - I dont know much about that but I would be surprized if there was much happening apart from central warsaw.

That hasn't been the case in Ireland nor Northern Ireland (which is part of the United Kingdom), where prices are very dramatically down, and that sidelines money has not even been content so far with very large drops of around 50%. I was in Dublin in 2007, I remember so many people told me "there's no bubble". I refused to buy, despite pressure from many sides

.irishtimes.

Houses in the capital have lost about 54 per cent of their value than at the peak recorded in 2007, while apartments are 58 per cent lower.

There is loads of stuff happening however it is not big scale projects that would get noticed. They are a bunch of smaller projects in the smaller towns. Elblag, Olsztyn are starting to see some building projects.

There will always be good and bad investments. For example, in Gdynia there is the Sea Towers. It is gorgeous. Amazing location. Hugely over inflated price. And the apartments are not selling. However, Ikea just bought land next to it. They are building waterfront condos. Ikea is not stupid. They are going to price them at a fraction of the cost- yet the locale is the same. Which do you think will sell?

Any development on the peninsula is a good purchase--within reason. Again- watching for over inflated prices. We bought a condo there and it rents for the entire summer as well as all the major holidays and occasions. We even have people that book in January for 2 weeks- booking. is a helpful tool.

Buying loads of condos in Warsaw like the Irish and Spanish did- does not make any sense what so ever- gone are the days where you would make any money off of that. And then there are all those ill informed who took their mortgages in Swiss Franc- bad investment.

If one knows the market there is success. I redid a 21 m2 flat in a 70s low rise. It sold in 4 days for the asking price.

Real estate agents, commercial anyway, follow a code of ethics. There is the law to protect the consumer- my husband has actually had to testify in court against somebody he worked with. Residential agents are retards in this country. But that doesn't mean residential is tanking and it is a bad investment. Now it is all about the smart investment and doing research.

In my osiedle there was an egyptian buyer who bought 5 houses and fitted them out exactly the same. 4 of them have sold- this last one probably won't sell for a while- my logic is that for the price there is more selection for buyers- the market is saturated and buyers have more power to negotiate. Houses are still selling in Warsaw- osiedle's are still being built--but buying a pack of houses or flat is not a good investment.

I can't comment on Ireland, I have no knowledge of this market.

58% drop in Warsaw:
-probably would be healthy
-still above the amount Milky interested in buying at, so his money would stay on the sidelines
-potentially would stop all residential development in Poland, which would lead to a recovery in prices, which would lead to developers developing again - at the end of the day Poland needs more apartments

-unlikely the apartments I would be interested in buying would fall 58%, but the general economy wins
-I still wouldn't be interested in being a landlord (at any price) but likely would create demand from people that want to move out of their 'too small' apartments

One day all the pesimists may be able to say I told you so

Indeed, a McD server would offer better property investment advice than someone with a vested interest in property.


You are equating yourself to the level of a 'professional' . The property market is not full of professionals who have an expert opinions based on qualifications and experience. Its full of people who have a 100% need for ever increasing asset values, even though markets go up and down with equal certainty.

There is no skill involved in predicting property markets, they go up and down with monotonous, predictable reliability. Guessing the precise turning point up or down is the skill. However you and Avalon obviously have no expertise (that you will admit too) as there is only one way, up, in your opinion. Pretty much the same bull we hear from your entire 'profession' (lol). One professional is Jon Hunt (Foxtons), he sold up when he knew the game was up.

The rest of you are clueless ****wits, if you believe your own bull****.


There is about $4 Trillion of QE sloshing about to be invested somewhere. This is how bubbles get formed and a similar situation after the dot-com boom cause the 2008 crash.

some are and some aren't- just like any profession.

I am not in real estate. I am an interior designer. I get hired after purchase- so I don't give a rats about any part of the sale. As for my education I went to college and uni in Canada for interior design. not a week end course. I am comfortable in my knowledge and I have nothing to gain by saying what I am saying. Trying to convince a bunch of people on a message board that there is no bubble- whatever.

However, nobody answered my question. ---If Poland is the only country in the EU to not go through a recession---then why is it so hard to believe that there will not be a property bubble here?

OK so I will answer your question. Increases in Polish house prices far exceeded either economic growth, inflation or wage growth in the period 2004-2008. Therefore the affordability of property was reduced drastically, therefore less people will be able to get finance for that.

yes- but there was never any disagreement with that. Which, in turn is causing the prices to level out paired with a saturated market- buyers have more choice. First time buyers are buyer small- like 45-50 m2 flats- but they are still buying.

Not in my eyes, its simply an illegal occupation.

I only see a drop of 50 % (not 90%) from peak bubble prices, So that is well within my forecast; don't mind the rants of the real-estate fundamentalist trying to steer what people have said.


exactly


very true, even taxi drivers.

If I were you, I would be very careful about calling people liars, look at your post from Aug, 20th, 2011:-

Avalon Aug 20, 11, 11:57 Reply / Quote #9

In Spain, the banks gave guarantee that the deposit money would be safe. They refused to uphold teh guarantees and gave the money to the developers, this was a political decision to steal from foreigners to try to save the Spanish economy. Illegal? yes. Will the Spanish legal system help? no.

Could you provide a link to this information? To "Save" the Spanish economy?, Spain has only been reported as having problems in the past year? How many people, have been buy property, off-plan, in Spain recently? I was not even aware that they were carrying on building. The reason Spains banks are in trouble is because of the money they lent to developers.

It was my impression that the problems with the developers in Spain was not to do with failure to build, it was that they built on land which did not have planning permission. The government then insisted that these houses were demolished. Apparently, the local "mayors" were giving permissions for bribe money, when they never had the authourity to do so.

You are an expert on the Spanish and Polish property markets and yet you cannot answer me when I ask you a question. You live in a flat in Krakow, yet, you live on a farm. You have land which is agricultural, but may be worth a lot of money when/if the council builds a road leading to it. I find this intriguing, especially since you have so much knowledge about property. I believe I asked you before if you had ever actually , physically, built anything, again, you never replied.

peterweg Edited by: peterweg Sep 27, 11, 19:01 Reply / Quote #62
Not disagreeing, I don't know your company situation.

Avalon Sep 27, 11, 22:15 Reply / Quote #63
So you "assume", without knowing the facts.

Posting and not knowing the facts seems to be one of your little foibles. Show me one post that I have made where I have lied, or, STFU and stop making yourself look foolish.

so answer the question. Why are flats and houses still selling?

er...because whatever the economic climate there will always be some people that must move, normally for one of 6 reasons - new jobs, marriage, more kids, kids leaving home, divorce, retirement.

I appreciate that reasoned debate doesn't seem to be your strong suit but surely the measure to look at is how many units. All data shows that there are far lower transaction numbers than in previous years.

In addition the time spent on average to shift each unit is increasing quite drastically with some towns like Lodz and Wroclaw showing almost 2 years worth of housing stock on the market.

Then why are developers starting new projects. Are you saying that they do not know what they are doing? Should the shareholders of the larger companies not be objecting to any future projects?

If there are two years worth of housing stocks on the market, surely it would not make sense to build any more.


Do you have any links to this data? does it include the figures of the number of new married couples that enter the market each year?

right.

what data? wikipedia? where is the data?

read this. nothing about a bubble. nothing

globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/Price-History

prices have dropped, duh, no bubble. saturated market, duh, no bubble.

Whats the obsession with Wikipedia?


Can't you do your own research?
thespainforum.com/f344/bank-guarantees-spain-petition-finca-parcs-action-group-334162
telegraph.co.uk/expat/campaigns/spanishplanningscandal
typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_26962.shtml
news.kyero.com/2010/08/03/holding-spanish-banks-accountable
bankguaranteesinspain.com
telegraph.co.uk/property/expatproperty/8577821/British-government-offers-hope-to-property-buyers-in-Spain.html
thespainforum.com/f202/developer-sold-properties-licences-bank-guarantees-140979


As per usual you miss-understand the reply and edit out the rest of the thread. And throw in a few personal insults to boot, while saying nothing.

because any idiot can put something there and edit it.

and then there is this link: mamdom.com/property_and_real_estate_prices_poland-Warsaw.php

learn: pwc.pl/pl_PL/pl/publikacje/Polish_Real_Estate_Market_2011.pdf

pip, step AWAY from the PC

Yes, so why mention it? Everyone knows to check the sources if you refer to Wiki, else don't use it as a reference.


See page 32 for the crash in residential prices.

do you smoke crack? there is nothing of the sort.

because they are gamblers,maybe they should visit;
GAMBLERS ANONYMOUS is a fellowship of men and women who share their experience, strength and hope with each other that they may solve their common problem and help others to recover from a gambling problem.

The only requirement for membership is a desire to stop building after the bubble has burst. There are no dues or fees for Gamblers Anonymous membership; we are self-supporting through our own contributions. Gamblers Anonymous is not allied with any sect, Neo-Liberals, Banks, Hedge Fund organization or institution; does not wish to engage in any controversy; neither endorses nor opposes any cause. Our primary purpose is to stop the compulsively building of over-priced apartments which prey on desperate workers, and to help other compulsive gamblers do the same.

Most of us have been unwilling to admit we were/are real-estate gamblers. No one likes to think they are different from their fellows. Therefore, it is not surprising that our gambling careers have been characterized by countless vain attempts to prove we could gamble like other people. The idea that somehow, some day, we will control our gambling is the great obsession of every compulsive gambler. The persistence of this illusion is astonishing. Many pursue it into the gates of prison, insanity or NAMA.


Go to several meetings a week for the first six months.


PIP step away from the computer and return to reality.

Exactly. Polish apartment prices are holding up. In Warsaw they're still quite high.

Really, Poznan, 9500 fallen to 6400
Tri-city 8500 to 6500
etc

Those are big falls and 9 months out of date.


Possibly true, but after 400 years you got to ask whether it maybe time to move on. Ireland was only settled 9000 years ago, so you all are interlopers.

not really. if they go down to 3000 then it might be a shock. I expect things could level at about 4800 to 5000.