Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

a) Source for the claimed fall being between 11.5% and 17.5%? Or do you not bother with sources?
b) Given that inflation in Poland since 2008 has varied between 2% and 5%, perhaps you could present a calculation showing how that interest rate causes a fall of 11.5% to become a fall of 24.7% in just three years? How does an interest rate averaging about 3% cause a fall to more than double?

Looking forward to your reply....

these are official GUS figures and they are hmm the lowest thing they can come up with I guess - the 'czynsz' for my bro's apartment increased 20 per cent since 2008 - ask people about bread and basic food prices - add the fuel prices (especially in the last two years)


my guess is we haven't even hit the bottom so far - it may even take a year or more before we touch the ground

Which would give an inflation rate of about 4.5% over the four years. And we have to factor in other things: has your bro's building association voted to renovate the building at all (and so jacked up the czynsz); etc; etc.


Ask me about beer and taxis: four years ago a large Zywiec was 10zl and it still is now (although I still refuse to drink it). A taxi four years ago was 1.80zl per km and it still is now.

Fuel costs have risen too, and has he had a child in that time, etc etc?


I can think of three things -

bread - 1.60zl in the local bakery, still 1.60zl.
tymbark lime juice in my local shop - 4zl then, 4zl now.
30 minute tram ticket - 3.60zl then, 3zl now.

What I suspect has really gone up is the cost of people's repayments for that flat screen TV, etc.

Polish apartment prices continue to fall

Please stick to topic

We are on the topic.

A claim has been made that when inflation is taken into account, prices are down by 24.7% to 29%. Now we are waiting for the claimant to produce a source to support his claim (and his maths). We're also making sure that any claims at 'But that isn't the real inflation rate' are impossible.

Last year saw a revival on the Warsaw housing market. Developers resumed some of the projects they had put on hold during the crisis. This was accompanied by increased sales of finished apartments. Foreigners have contributed to the recovery on the market by stepping up their investment in housing, including premium apartments, in Warsaw and other Polish cities.

I used a 5%, the approx figure for the previous two years.

a) The rate in 2011 was 4.6%, in 2010 it was 3.10% (tradingeconomics.com/inflation-rates-list-by-country). So you are over-estimating inflation by some 30%. Given that inflation in 2009 was 3.5%, you are actually some 35% over the real rate for the three year period which you referred to.

b) Could you please provide the calculations that you produced (using either your claimed rate of 5% or the real rate) which show that the inflation rate causes a fall of 11.5% to become a fall of 24.7% in just three years?

Bit difficult to post Excel here, I'll post the figures later

Anyone got a link for houses prices in Poland for the month of January, 2012 ??

Why?, they would still be too expensive.

You were well and truly rumbled there Peter, or are you still intending on posting those calculations.

Were waiting

Well, Mr developer, I only want to know how far they went down in comparison to the last few months. Too expensive:

In The Complete Idiot's Guide to Buying and Selling A Home, Shelley O'Hara and Nancy D. Warner estimate that a buyer should plan to borrow "roughly 2 to 2-1/2 times your annual gross salary. If you and your partner make $50,000, you might be able to buy a home in the $100,000 to $125,000 range.

The cost of your home -- including taxes, maintenance and other costs -- should not exceed 28% of your monthly income.
In the UK
Generally speaking, a mortgage lender will lend you between three and four times your gross salary, although some lenders will offer you more if you're willing to pay a higher interest rate. If you're buying with a partner then they'll probably throw in the equivalent of his or her annual salary in addition to the amount they're prepared to lend you. So, if you're on £25,000 a year and he or she is on £20,000, you should be able to borrow around £120,000. Alternatively, they may lend you three times your joint income. This usually means you can raise a slightly bigger

mortgage. Using the same salary figures, you could borrow £135,000 on this basis. If you get any additional income from bonuses or commission these may be taken into account as well.

So in Poland paying 10 times your salary for a one bedroom flat, or 15 times your yearly salary for a house; could easily be described as TOO expensive.

SO

Anyone got a link for houses prices in Poland for the month of January, 2012 ??

No you did not. You just wanted restart this thread ( as you do every couple of weeks) to lecture evertyone on how much "you" would like to see house prices fall in line with your ridiculous predictions. Its not goping to happen so dream on. You are not going to instigate general strikes, mass protests or rioting on the streets. The price is the price, live with it or get a better paying job.

this is a pretty good assessment.
I also wanted to add that I have seen housing prices fall in Warsaw- or rather on the fringe of Warsaw. Developers are starting to add perks such as a new car, fit out included, appliances and a discount. This, however, does not mean there is a bubble. Once again, ad nauseum, the market is saturated, the prices are dropping to a leveling off point and buyers are expecting more for their money.

Nothing that is happening in the market is a shock or extreme.

People aren't paying that much. The average wage in Poland is now 3,416zl per month, which is 40,992zl per year. In some cities (such as Slupsk), a one-bedroom flat can be had for less than two years' wages.


We'll be waiting for quite some time.

But then we're still waiting for Milky to support this gem:


When he was challenged about that, he replied "hahah yea, have you got a time machine." but then when a link to the program in question was posted, he whined about the posts until both his comment and the link were both removed. Since then he's been completely silent about being caught lying yet again.

I think the "real" fall is 21% - take 2008 as your start point i.e. 100% and if you have a 5% fall and a 3% fall in house prices. = 100 x 1,05 x 1,03 = 1,0815%.

Then apply 3 years compound inflation to get to your real rate = 1,0815 x 1,035 x 1,031 x 1,046 = 121%.

However no point arguing about real falls at the absolute falls are going to be 20% :)

Now we are waiting for Pip to provide her definition of a bubble !


what is the average salary in slupsk ? I cannot be bothered to look it up but I know from my own work that it has a big depopulation problem (about 6% reduction since end of Communism with that 6% being mostly made up of wage earning men in their 20s and 30s) and a high unemployment rate.

gotta love the property threads.

at the end of the day if we were all such experts we would have bought every single square meter possible of Rynek property third quarter of 2004, sold late 2007 and be millionaires.

A 5% fall in what?

Although you might want to note that the original claim was that a fall of 11.5% (that was the unsourced figure given by the poster in question) becomes 24.7% in just three years when inflation is factored in. Any chance you can crunch those numbers for us?


No idea. Do ZUS even release breakdowns by city? From my knowledge (which is fairly good, the Misses is from there and still owns a flat up there, plus number one step-daughter is up there separately several times per year) unemployment is down quite a bit and the economy is doing a lot better than it was before the latest mayor took office.


There is a vast difference between buying property as a speculator and buying the place where you will live.

It's not just there - Kielce (bloody Kielce!) is booming these days, too.


No-one is paying 15 times their salary for a house. Maybe you would have to, because working two english classes a week doesn't mean much.

I am sure it is there somewhere in the past 14 pages. In real estate a bubble is defined as a sharp incline in market prices--usually based on a guess and a limited amount- much like the stock market, then followed by a sharp decrease and crash.

simply put it is a peak and a crash- but there are other factors that waver into the situation.

and interestingly enough a bubble is only defined after the fact- only when it bursts.

we don't have the sharp decrease. we have a steady decrease and a leveling off- based on market saturation, etc etc.

Wouldn't be so sure about that.

So

Anyone got a link for houses prices in Poland for the month of January, 2012 ??

residential.pl/sosnowadolina.php

this is just outside of warsaw, next to Ikea. American builder

harmonium.investland.pl/cennik.htm

this one is in Kostancin just outside of Warsaw

I suppose, not being a property owner, you wouldn't understand the meaning of "deposit". People buying houses tend to sell another property, you know.

So how many times the average industrial wage is Pip's link below?
residential.pl/sosnowadolina.php


Pip this may help you with your bubble blindness
youtube.com/watch?v=0F7SCbrU5sQ


So
Anyone got a link for houses prices in Poland for the month of January, 2012 ??

But what about the God-given right that everybody has to move into a 300-metre house as their first property?

The only reason that prices are above their natural level (i.e. 1,000zl per metre, finished, with bathroom and fitted kitchen, and a Mercedes E-class and a Ford Focus in the garage), the level at which people can afford them, is that evil developers artificially force prices far higher.

that link is a complete joke when related to the Polish market.

Name me one country where this happens?? 300 metres???


Yes the Polish bubble was driven by foreign capital, so yes there is a difference.


harry that's a bit harsh, 'opportunistic' perhaps would be a better word.

You mean people do not have that God-given right? You mean that they have to start out with 30 metres and work their way upwards (if they want to)? You Thatcherite!