What should Poland do to solve the population crisis?

The thing I notice about this demographic crisis is the shortage of teenagers to teach in the language school. The amount of groups has dropped considerably in the last couple of years.

Start shagging, folks... or a lot of us will be without work!

Merged: Demographic Future of Poland?

How do you see the demographic future of Poland?

According to the CIA Factbook, Poland is 98% Polish with mainly Ukrainian, German, Slovak, and Czech minorities. There are Do you believe this will remain in the future of Poland? I am talking about the next 50 years or so.

If you believe that the demographics will change, and there will be more immigrants ( which is likely) where do you think those immigrants will come from? Will Poland follow the path of Western Europe and attempt to assimilate African, Arab, and Asian immigrants? Or do you think that Poland will import immigrants from poorer and less developed Eastern European nations such as Ukraine, Georgia, Serbia, etc?

Please if someone could offer they're opinion on the demographics of future Poland, that would be very much appreciated.

If Poland keeps sucking on Israeli, Americans and Germans it will become a dump.
The key is to KILL the EU organization. Throw it in the bin.

Poland should follow Japan or China in general (closed, united and for the most part homogenous). The government economic and other social policies should be similar to Russia.

Traditional values must be HEAVILY promoted (not what is now its not enough). Do not let any liberal or leftist extremist come to power or Poland might go the way of France/Britain (Pakistani/Muslim colonies).

Russia, of course, is quite strange example to follow with its distance between the richest and
the poorest which is probably the highest in the world.Are you sure that only Russia and not any other
country should be an example to follow?..

You make a good point.

Currently its GDP nominal is rising (I think close to the fastest in Europe).

2011 (figures are in billions of dollars)
1. USA 15,076 (USA is 15 trillion, etc)
2. China 7,298
3. Japan 5,867
4. Germany 3,607
5. France 2,778
6. Brazil 2,493
7. UK 2,431
8. Italy 2,199
9. Russia 1,850
10. India 1,827

Citigroup (Feb 2011)estimated the future top 10 gdps to change.

2015
1. USA 18,247
2. China 13,118
3. Japan 5,876
4. Germany 3,886
5. India 3,358
6. France 3,047
7. Brazil 3,026
8. UK 2,885
9. Russia 2,668
10. Italy 2,414

2030
1. China 57,138
2. USA 35,739
3. India 24,824
4. Japan 9,213
5. Brazil 8,780
6. Russia 7,380
7. Indonesia 7,299
8. Germany 6,466
9. UK 5,819
10. France 5,236

As you can see Russias position changes for the better.
Their population will most probably remain the same (or lower).
As the nominal gdp increases, perhaps the gdp per capita would increase... at least one hopes.
Then living standards increase.

That is what I meant when its economy is growing nicely.

Socially, Russia hasnt been infected by the Liberal virus for the most part which is also good.

As for the gap between the wealth and poor, whatever Poland chooses should hope to solve this problem.
It happens in every country.
In USA you have billionaires and homeless, 50 million on foodstamps, etc.
Its rough everywhere.

I have doubts that Russian GDP will exceed that of Germany in 2030.
Natural resources of Russia will be seriously depleted to this time.
Even if it will happen it will be probably for account of Germany decline.

The nominal GDP doesn't take the size of the population into account, that's why it's better to compare the economic output via the GDP per capita. Where are Russia, China and India then?

cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html

Yes for the GDP per capita, they are lower compared to more Western Nations, then but I believe that will improve as well in a few short decades.

The last two are the superpowers of the future. Be very afraid.

Nah, not really. If it continues on the path it's currently on, India will destroy itself either through its uncontrolled population growth or through a (nuclear) war with Pakistan. China will go down the drain because of its tremendous environmental problems and the demand of its people for more freedom and democracy. Most of their industry is subsidized, which they cannot sustain over a long period of time without going bankrupt. Just look at the old commie system and how it ended. Besides, western countries are already (or will be) shifting their production away from China either back home or to a country with even cheaper labor.

[moved from]

I heard a report on Radio Poland yesterday that said that the population of Poland is dwindling very fast.
Currently 38 million,but maybe as low as 25 million by 2050.
Please correct me if my figures are slightly wrong,as I was not taking notes but cooking Sunday Lunch.... :-)
If this is the case,and please say if you think it is not,what is the solution?

Milo,
The solution is a true market economy. But how to achieve that is another matter.
I don't believe that analysis, but for its size in area the Polish population should be 45 million plus.
Without inner city regeneration you can forget that. Some smaller cities need blitzing, that is, wholesale district demolition - otherwise they are doomed.

We have been bombarded with this news for some time already. As of today, the year 2050 is an abstract reality for most people here in Poland...

Didn't Madame de Pompadour of France once say: 'après nous, le déluge'? In the year 966, under Mieszko I, there were approximately only one million of us - and we have survived to this very day!

So how to get it up to that?
Promote birth rates or immigration?

Ziemowit
This is a serious topic. Poland is so poor because it is seriously underpopulated, never mind the brain drain.
Only banning domestic coal burning and awarding a realistic public sector pay rate, plus a huge infrastructure regeneration, will start in alleviating this
Your flippancy as to grand old "history" is quite pathetic.

Significantly enough, here in the States, a problem has been brewing for some time now, that apparently the ONLY ones having children on a regular basis, are Hispanics and recent migrants from Syria:-) White Americans are having fewer children, quite a large number, having none at all!

1.9 per 100,000.
Used to be 3.7 in 1960. And, then, came Roe. Not good for the US. Not good for my Social Security benefits.

Better messin' up some bureaucrat's books than screwin' up a woman's life!
Social Security can easily do some "creative bookkeeping" as they've done since time immemorial.
Tough do creatively reconfigure someone's insides:-)

Yet again another leftist lie for open borders.

No surprise then that you wouldn't back up your absurd claim with any facts.

So I will.

Country GDP Per Capita for 2017 (USD) / Population (2017)

Luxembourg..............107865.27 / 590,667
Switzerland...............76667.44 / 8.42 million
Singapore.................55235.51 / 5.612 million
United States............53128.54 / 327.2 million
Germany...................46747.19 / 82.79 million
France......................42567.74 / 67.19 million
United Kingdom.......42514.49 / 66.04 million
Czech Republic.......22779.29 / 10.58 million
Slovakia...................19897.15 / 5.435 million
Estonia....................18977.39 / 1.316 million
Lithuania.................16793.25 / 2.848 million
Poland....................15751.23 / 38.43 million

As you can see, a low population size does not equate to a country being poor.

Quite the opposite.

What makes a country rich are enforcement of fair laws, sound economic policies, and comparative advantages.

These factors attract inward investment and allow export markets to grow.

Who cares if Poland's population is 25 million or 40 million if it has many markets to export to and can take advantage of automation to sustain it?

Note too how Poland's GDP is completely in line with the GDP of neighbouring border countries in the region (save Ukraine).

You can always import as many Cossacks, Belarussians, Russians, Serbians etc, as you want. The other question what will happen to the cultural integrity of Poland... I don't see a principal problems with assimilation of the forementioned nations, but first of all in this case the problem of depopulation will switch to the other countries (Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Serbia etc.) and secondly assimilation can never be absolute...

In fact it is you who are flippant with your claim that Poland's population should be 45 million plus. There is no ground whatsoever for such a pathetic claim.

Could any "serious" institution or office predict in 1938 that Poland's population would be reduced to slighly below 24 million in 1945? The answer is "neither". What is even more to it is that their "serious" predictions would have inevitably gone in the opposite direction since Poland had started with 27 million in 1921, went up to 32 million and finished with nearly 35 million in 1938.


Ha ha ha, a downhill descent from 35 million to 24 million in just seven years and then a sharp growth of its population thereafter! Likewise, all these silly predictions for the year 2050 are not even worth the value of paper on which they are written.

And next time, please stop being so pathetically patronising just because you are British and I am Polish. I think you have been reprimanded for this several times already, and by your British compatriots as well.

Sorry that you have an inferiority complex Ziemowit. Strange. Of course the truth is that you seem to be suggesting that immigrants shouldn't have an opinion.

As to the 45 million - not my theory, but the demographers'.

Talk about pot, kettle, black - nothing but lies and inventions from you when you think you can get away with it - speaking of which, what are you doing here hiding in the long grass? Why aren't you on the Nice treaty thread, responding to my comments of yesterday? Could it be because Diddums has made an even worse fool of himself than last time, and doesn't know how to wriggle out of it? And I see from your comments regarding population that you don't understand economics either - quelle surprise!


Well, PIS's solution was the 500 plus program, an unsustainable social welfare initiative. Falling birth rates are an issue in many European countries.

Since you are big time lefty, what do environmentalists have to say about adding another 5 to 7 million people to Poland's current population?

Can you even try to imagine the magnitude of more resources needed and amount of waste generated by that many more people?

What sort of quality of life would adding that many people have both for humans and wildlife?

Quite. That one didn't work; even the most eager (and justified) recipients are sceptical about its future.

He does with Brits and I have no idea why.I may be British but my blood is as Polish as his.

My personal opinion is Poland needs a bit of both promoting birth rates in Poland and controlled immigration.
They promoted birth rates in France about 30 years ago and it worked to a degree,I have friends who were persuaded to have a third child because of it.

They are trying to do it in Hungary now,we will see how that works out.

Vlad 1234's suggestion of allowing other Slavs in is a good one.Not very culturaly problematic.
But Poland should heed what has gone wrong in Western Europe and control the number of non europeans coming in.(For cultural reasons).
But I think some more exotic immigrants would be good for Poland.
Variety is the spice of life but too much spice is not good for you.

Well, a good start for Poland would be to introduce universal free child care in the municipality where the child lives from the end of the parental leave. The situation is dire in many areas, particularly with creches, and such universal provision would go a long way to encouraging people to have children.

Add in a good tax cut (say 500zł less income tax per month per child) and you've got something that encourages people to have children while not encouraging the rise of a welfare-dependent class (think about some of the core Labour electorate in England around 2000).

I think that developed countries will be forced to switch to some kind of artificial reproduction (possibly cloning) and incubator state education of people. Possibly memory downloading.

That's probably not an immediate solution, Vlad...

A genetically engineered and artificially bred human after personal design of its soon-to-be-owner with a brain filled to the brim with downloaded informations about all topics he might need for a start (and the memories of its new owner of course)...what a way to cheat death and to proliferate...THE FUTURE! :)