Presidential elections and debates 2015 Poland

PiS 40%, Kukiz 25% is more like it, but that's what coalitons are all aboiut. Auntie Angie scored a real coup by teaming her upright Christian Democrats with a motley collection of greenies and other leftist loonies, and somehow Germany has not fallen apart.

The PiS-led govenrment will have to reach a modus vivendi with Kukiz, who must realise that his group is in power (if it does come to a government coalition and not just a voting agreement) only thanks to PiS. That should encourage both sides to exercise restraint and display a spirit of compromise.

PiS and Kukiz do not have 65% of the vote combined. Don't forget that PO won 48.5% in the Presidential election during a shockingly bad campaign, and in the first round, took 33% of the vote. Don't forget that PO have heavy resources behind them, particularly as the business community is overwhelmingly behind them, and those resources will pay for a brutal campaign against PiS. Every single mistake by Duda will be relentlessly analysed and criticised, and PO will be in the somewhat strange situation of a ruling party being able to behave as if it's in opposition.

A far more realistic outcome would have PiS narrowly winning with around 32-34% of the vote, PO winning 30-32%, Kukiz taking 10-12% along with NowoczesnaPL and the PSL taking 5-6%. It could be enough (just) for PiS-Kukiz, but it would be a razor thin majority.

As for PiS, they have a history of causing trouble with coalition partners. Whether Kukiz would be foolish enough to sign any agreement with PiS without getting control of the MSW, well.

More to the point,

You seem to forget that the Platformers are slipping fast and the Kukiz in recent polls outstripped them.
You'd better believe the bloodsuckers and gougers of big business are shaking in their boots at the prospect of the scam-friendly Platfusy losing the election, so you're probably right that they'll bankroll the hate campaign to stop the sinking PO ship going under.

All these figures are highly speculative at this point, but just for the sake of analysis, let's assume that my prediction is correct (65% for PiS/Kukiz). What in your view would be the result? BTW why should the major coalition partner give up the Interior Ministry. That is the main weapon against lawbreakers including PO-style white-collar crime -- juggling books, kickbacks, under the counter deals, fixed tenders, backroom payoffs, etc.

Yes. Which is why I strongly expect that his party spin doctors have told him to keep his mouth mostly shut and avoid typical PiS flaps before the election, rather than putting his foot in his mouth every time he opened it like the last (and only) PISuar to hold presidential office

We'll see how long he lasts when he comes up against an electoral machine that's used to winning elections. Kukiz won't only have to worry about PO, he'll also have to worry about PiS in the Eastern provinces. So far, he hasn't attracted any political power at all, which is what matters in an election. If you consider that Kukiz has a parallel with Twój Ruch in 2011, then look at how many experienced campaigners Palikot had to call on. Kukiz has nothing so far, and this will likely hurt him.


Disaster for PiS in your scenario. They would be facing a coalition partner that would offer them constitutional changes in exchange for some very odd populist policies, and it could lead to yet another 2006-2007 situation arising again. A better result would be something around 55% combined, as it would allow them to govern without the distraction of constitutional changes.

As for Kukiz, the MSW would probably be a red line in order to prevent Kaczyński repeating history and using the MSW against him. Remember, Kukiz is building his reputation on destroying the existing system, and allowing Kaczyński to control the MSW would be a disaster for him.

Looks like PiS are also realising that Kukiz is a threat to them.

rp.pl/artykul/1205747.html

To explain - MP Pawłowicz from PiS (of infamous eating in the Sejm fame) is mocking Kukiz for apparently having abandoned Poland already.

As for Duda, there are certainly growing murmurings that PiS may be starting to move away from Kaczyński's authority now that they've got someone to rally around. It's certainly telling that Duda won the Presidential election by putting in a lot of hard work, which Kaczyński has never done.

Every party has got its dingbats - Pawłowicz in PiS, Niesiołowski and Palikot (formerly) in PO.
It wouldn't be a bad idea if someone other than Kaczyński were PM. He is tired, exhausted, politically spent and still traumatised by his family tragedy. MP Beata Szydło has been tipped for PM but she herself says she prefers to remain an MP. At least for now, Anything can happen in the months ahead.

I would also add Grzegorz Schetyna to the PO list.

Why is that? I thought he was one of the more even-keeled Platformers?

I think it's time for Kaczyński to retire from politics. Duda's success shows that PiS can win elections if the candidate has the energy to enthuse the electorate, but Kaczyńśki is just tired, old and jaded. Look at his public appearances, as they lack energy and he simply doesn't have the power for the job. He avoids meeting the public in general, and his appearances are mocked by most of the electorate for being stage managed. Even PiS voters these days seem to be fed up with him, and it's notable that he hasn't received any credit for Duda's win.

When I compared Duda's 2015 election campaign with Kaczyński's 2011 campaign, you can really see the huge difference. Duda was travelling all over Poland to try and secure votes, while Kaczyński managed to associate himself with a ridiculous stage-managed "win" at the PiS conference.

There are plenty of capable politicians within PiS, but Kaczyński needs to realise that PiS is not about him anymore.

Good memory Teargas. I think you just made a very sensible statement.

I agree Polonius. They call themselves PIS.

Chatting to English speaker Poles quite a bit this week - another week of many enquiries and more successful sales than usual.

This is a PO strong hold city yet everyone I chat to says they're pleased PiS got in. From that I assume they voted PiS. Background of these people, semi professional and professional (draughtsmen, shop owners, dentists)

Must confess not had a chance to question the key members of local population such as dog walkers.

Dog walking bottom tier businessmen usually support PO that I know from personal experience.

Did you use a time machine? The general election is later in the year.

He clearly had opinion poll on his mind...

The data from GUS suggests that there hasn't been any sudden spike. I have access to retail information, and there's nothing that suggests that Duda's victory has changed much except that the markets are rather jittery at the thought of PiS winning later this year.

The other reason that I know that you happen to be lying is that everyone this week has gone away for the long weekend. No-one is doing business this week, as witnessed in my own business. Anyone claiming that business is "booming" during this week is clearly full of it.


Suggest that you're making this up. The swing from PO to PiS in the Presidential election was only around 5.5%, which is rather minor.

Incidentally, numbers from the Presidential election in PO stronghold cities stayed somewhat consistent, which rather proves that you seem to be making things up. An example occured in Szczecin, Komorowski won 64% in 2010 and 61% in 2015. There was a small swing of around 2% to PiS, but nothing that could suggest that PO strongholds moved to Komorowski. Elbląg was around 62-38% in 2010 and 60-40% in 2015.

If you wish to present me with some evidence that PO strongholds went over to PiS, then I'd like to see it. There were some cases, such as Rzeszów that went from 51-49 Komorowski to around 56-44 Duda, but Rzeszów would never be called a PO stronghold. Perhaps Wrocław? It was 65-35 in 2010 and 58-41 in 2015.

As far as I know, there were no dramatic swings to either PO or PiS in the presidential election. Perhaps you should rethink your lies?

Given that both sides view their opponents as carpet biting lunatics, they are never going to switch sides or be happy if the others win.

A close showing by PiS and PO in autmn means nothing more than a continuation of the murderous, self-defeating Polish-Polish war. Just imagine the time, energy, money, air times and newsprint that has been wasted on this fallacious project over the past decade! The onyl thing that will change that is a clear setback to the Platformers -- a vote of 20% or less, amid 35-40% for PiS and 20-25% for Kukiz should do the trick. The Platfusy will still rant and rave but the noise they generate will be largely harmless.

Secondly,let's not idealise or deify the markets and business community which have a tendency to stray into unethical practices in their unbridled pursuit of greed. According to the constitution Poland has a social market economy, and that means close tabs should be kept on the corproate sector with a view to preventing and prosecuting fradulent and monopolistic practices, misleading adverts and other abuses harmful to society.

The thing with Kukiz is that I'm not sure that his politics can stand up for a sustained campaign. PiS (particularly in the East) will be very afraid of his nationalism taking away their voters among young people, and in the West, he'll come under a huge amount of attack for his conservatism.

Taking the poll from the 1st of June into account.


45% might - just - be enough to get 231 seats in the Sejm. But that would be an electoral disaster for PiS as they would win the election, but be faced with a razor thin majority and a coalition partner with no experience in national politics. Kukiz could simply refuse to vote on an issue (any issue) and the PO/NowoczesnaPL grouping would be able to defeat the government. For PiS, it would be a disaster, as they would be forced to act like a Government while being constantly held up by a coalition partner.

Kukiz will fade away as time goes on. He will appoint people to electoral lists who will then be assassinated locally and endlessly by both PO and PiS, who undoubtedly learnt a lesson from 2010 and Ruch Palikota. He'll get 10% of the vote, but it won't be enough to form a viable government with PiS.

I was talking about for President, Jon, if you're that unaware of the recent presidential election you shouldn't be commenting on a thread about Poland's presidential elections

Then you should take care to be more precise if you wish to comment, guest poster. Rather than suggesting that PiS got in. PO/PSL are still 'in' and long may that be true.

Yeah Teargas, I got nothing better to do than make things up, maybe like online trolls hired by other parties, yeah. Sorry cant offer you a crumb of comfort, none of its made up by me so they're either lying to me or you're kidding yourself. Tough love sunshine.