Super power is quite an exaggeration, but a major European power? Possibly. If Poland lucked out, circumstances were favourable and the right measures were taken - who knows?
Not, of course the small, truncated Poland we know today which has 20% less territory than even the also truncated II RP. (Truncated compared to the IRP that got partitioned in the late 18th century.)
Ukraine would have to play an important role in that development. Let's say the Donbas area is eventually completely taken over by Russia (either annexed by the RF or as a Kremline-controlled puppet state), Ukraine might be inclined to team up with Poland in some sort of federation. Since Lukashenka isn't eternal, eventually Belarus might also join, possibly even Lithuania, although with the smaller countries there might be problems (fear of losing their cultural identity). A Polish-Ruthenian federation with access to both the Baltic and Black Sea could develop into a power to reckon with. Over Moscow's objections the federation would have to join NATO and the EU. In terms of population it would roughly match Germany. It would have to spend at least 5% on defence and security. If the GDP started inching upward, such a new continental power might be a distinct possibility. Pożyjemy, zobaczymy!
Poland hasn't got an ice creams chance in hell of ever being a super power using conventional methods. If it were to become the first country to successfully implement the Third Industrial Revolution however, or some other new social system, then maybe. The World needs one country, one country to transition to make a success of something new...and the rest of the planet will follow.
If Poland lucked out
Even if Poland all of sudden discovered more than half of the worlds total oil reserves within its borders, it still wouldn't be a superpower. What do you mean by 'luck out'?
If Poland got lucky and the general configuration of things on the continent lined up in a way advantageous to the Polish nation... but I never said super power, but at best a major European power.
However, let's not be ahistorical. In geopolitics most anything can happen. Now Germany is No. 1 but in 10, 20 years, who knows? Only one things is certain: nothing ever stays the same indefinitely.
If Poland got lucky and the general configuration of things on the continent lined up in a way advantageous to the Polish nation.
If that would ever happen, I'm sure the Russians would intervene. The last thing they'll accept is yet another (military) power challenging them on their western border.
Poland unfortunately follows steps of countries such as Spain and Greece and in few years (maximum) we'll see results. How many airports with no planes for instance built out of EU's money, which ends up in big proportions in some private pockets? Poland missuses EU's money on stupid things when so many Poles need to go abroad to find work and decent salaries. Don't tell me that towns such as ... Radom need airports????
Superpower is a silly description. Comparing Poland to corrupt Greeks and all that is a sad joke, Poland is a good performer in EU, Greece is deluded. All that will happen in two years is more links to new markets such as UAE to give one example. You pessimists can go jump you are just bad for my share prices. Some of us have good performing assets in Poland which are doing just fine. The economic growth social development are going just fine. The distancing from backward despotic neighbours is going just fine thanks. Super power maybe never and I hope not but the rest is making great progress and they far outweigh the bad bits.
@Marsupial: I understand you live thousands of miles away from Poland so you are "a bit out". If you dared getting informed, you'd know about the misuse of EU's funds by Poland and about corruption. How many for instance airports with no planes? What about Modlin airport closed for a year because they had suddenly realized that the landing path was too ... short? The list is very long and every week Polish medias tell us about something new. What about all the money ending up as a result in the pockets of building entrepreneurs?
As to your idea of Poland "doing well" in EU, it only look so because of the hundreds of billions paid by Western Europe (in terms of their contributions: 1. Germany 2. France and 3. UK) and taxpayers from said countries are fed up to be milked.. Futhermore a country with shrinking population and a huge emigration is obviously not doing well. I often read that in Poland only around 20% of the population is doing well.
When EU stops pouring hundreds of billions to Poland, we'll see the results. Poland is only artifically doing "well". It has no economy per se. Big firms in Poland are all foreign and therefore so called Polish exports are in fact those products made by foreign companies. No Polish company is able to have a world presence.
Poland is a long way behind the West and it'll always be so and most of the Poles (who live in Poland) know it since according to all surveys, the huge majority of younger population see their future out of Poland. When we get out of nouveau riche circles, the situation is very bad...
You forgot about NATO. Of course, today's NATO may not be tomorrow's NATO. NATO may succumb to "wimpification" and became a shadow of its former self. But new problems may also confront Russia - challenges from China, internal terrorist activity and disgruntled break-away national groups within the RF. Not to mention potential disabilitating natural calamities (meteors, earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc.)
Today Austria and Hungary are only two small countries but once constituted an empire ruling over large swathes of the continent. Poland-Lithuanian was once Europe's largest land empire. There were even Moravian and Bulgarian empires at various points in history. Viewing future perspectives through the prism of "nowness" is usually a mistake that can only lead astray.
Gosc you are right I am a long way away. I am out of touch but not completely just partially. Anyway regardless of this I will continue to invest a safe percentage of what I can there. Giving up and all that will not help only action will. I hope a day will come when poland can hold its own. Its worth working towards it.
If Poland got lucky and the general configuration of things on the continent lined up in a way advantageous to the Polish nation...
Define, general configuration - give me an example. What do you mean by advantageous?
the huge majority of younger population see their future out of Poland
That is indeed a sad situation. Poland needs a revolution. It can be an infuriating country to live in.
What about Modlin airport closed for a year because they had suddenly realized that the landing path was too ... short?
The A4 ring road South of Krakow used to drive me nuts, it was like driving in a long ditch at high speed. The trucks had literally created two submerged rails almost all the way along as the motorway wasn't built properly in the fist place. Some body somewhere probably took a massive back hander on that one. God knows how many accidents/deaths that caused.
Marsupial, it is obvious when away, one has the tendency to see things rosier ;). Of course, Poland has made tremendous progress (but without EU's money it would not have) but if we get out of urban "nouveau riche" circles, it is very "primitive". I don't often go to Poland B (or C) and when I do, I am shocked by so much poverty and underdevelopment. Not long ago, I was in Nowy Sacz. Believe me, except for the small commercial center on the outskirts, the town does not seem to have moved in the past 20 years or so. In the town per se, not a decent restaurant, not a decent place to even have a cup of coffee - only a few greasy spoon joints for drunkards. The clothes sold there are not wearable in the "developed world" and most people are poor and look sad. This is a current example but 'sh./ty" underdeveloped towns, with no present and no future are too numerous in Poland and make up most of Poland in fact. When we dare getting out of Warsaw's "expat and nouveau riche circles" and ouf of Krakow, Wroclaw, Poznan and Gdansk's fashionable touristic districts and we dare seeing the real Poland, we cannot say that Polish situation is brilliant. Only those not knowing Poland or in the Government pretend all is rosy - they do not know or they do not want to know ;)
Personally I could not imagine living in B or C Poland ;)
@Wroclaw: I did not follow whole story but when I found out that Modlin Aiport got closed down because they had realized the landing path was too short, I really "cracked up"...
Comparing Poland to corrupt Greeks and all that is a sad joke
Why is Greece corrupt? if you ask me Greece has the right idea - those chaps know how to put on a proper riot. If any relatively developed nation should be rioting ....its Poland. Poland needs a riot big time, a revolution.
Greece is deluded.
You pessimists can go jump you are just bad for my share prices.
ahh we see, the true picture forming now. Theres a very good reason as to why the Greeks voted in the first Socialist government in a very, very long time and it has everything to do with equality and what is morally right. What do you know about Greece? other than what the brainwash box tells you.
Why what do you know about Greece? Having said they are on the right path...a path to what? Bankruptcy and no future and a socialist government is good? I hope they leave the EU. You are saying riots are good and Poland should have some? Mate back to the drive through Window to serve fries you have night shift tonight.
@Wroclaw: it is true that people don't know and just repeat what they read on the net or see on tv. Greek employees have their tax directly deducted from the salaries so how the h... don't they pay tax (I personally know people in Greece)? Those not paying tax are the Church or the very rich.
Greeks are not "lazy" too as most have 2 or 3 jobs.
It is pathetic to believe any bs found on the net. (style Levi ;))
@Marsupial: let the Greeks decide for themselves. They are fed up to be close to starvation to please Brussels and Merkel. People cannot eat, cannot go to school, cannot get medical treatment because lack of money (in hospital, they just supply beds and the very basic). In Spain, people feel the same way as the recent election results show.
People are just fed up to be close to starving whereas the few rich get richer and richer and dare telling them to tighten their belts.
Easy for you to say bs when not aware of the situation!
I am not saying Greece shall get better but one cannot expect people to starve without complaining.
I personally know people in Greece. Their salaries were cut by 30% but prices go up, of course. How the hell are they supposed to survive? Are they supposed to kill their kids and eat them?
After Greece, it'll be Spain in December (Podemos now already controls Madrid and Barcelona), then other countries like Portugal.... and no way people shall stop.
You can stop the world changing!
"A hungry man is an angry man"
@Marsupial: you just started the "clichés" against the "lazy and corrupt" Greeks but please let them run their country!
Yes, back to Poland and I'm afraid Poland shall face same situation after EU no longer feeds Poland and this is my concern. When you see for instance, airports built in Poland in one-horse towns, with no planes, we have the right to worry. EU should supervize their money.
Ok just looking what Poland did without all this cut off from the world we did ok considering that. After 20 years of development people abroad sending money and business people investing Poland will still be better off if they shut the gates than it would have been without this period. You people should do us a favour and stop the negative talk and put on a positive face to help the cause. I will be there in December again to hunt more business. I have a percentage of money here that I use to help there and hopefully make some profit too. I feel like I am doing at least my share. When there at the end of the year I will be looking for a new purchasing person to give a job to. I doubt this will lead to superpower but that's not an aim. Small steps will pay off.
To be honest, I don't believe that the USA would risk a nuclear war for any country in Europe except the UK.
But new problems may also confront Russia - challenges from China
At the moment it certainly looks as if these two nations are closely working together to limit the influence of the US. They are not going against each other as long as they have their common enemy. Nothing has changed since the end (?) of the Cold War.
It wont be a super power because the universities are teaching Polish and then getting EU loans and giving degrees to 3rd world country student, who then are armed with the necessity to stay in Poland. Take away more jobs from the locals who end up DISPLACED AROUND THE WORLD
The people in Poland will flee Poland once larger presence is allocated.
Nothing but a attack on white people all around the world.
Well said Gosc. Sometimes riots and general civil disobedience are the only ways to be heard. I'd really like to see more people rise up in Poland and start to address some of the issues which really affect them....Instead of jumping on a way one RyanAir ticket to Stansted.
Seems a lot of the people commenting on this thread are actually Poles who already jumped ship.
Because they are used to use the public machine (which is HUGE there since they had series of left wing governs) to private benefit. This is the definition of corruption. Look for the rankings of transparency international. Together with Portugal and Spain, Greece have corruption levels of a third world country.
About riots: Most of the riots are not for better management of the country. But rather for people claiming more welfare.
At the end of the day, the own population wants to someone else to give them free lunch.
That kind of underdeveloped mentality is typical of Mediterranean and Latino countries.
That is why south of Europe and entire Latin America are dominated by left wing governments that promise welfare while make those countries be the relatively underdeveloped **** holes that they are.
Together with Portugal and Spain, Greece have corruption levels of a third world country.
Where did you source that, wesupportcapitalismandtheenslavementofthehumanrace.com? Corruption is a by product of capitalism, the free market economy practically induces it. Take a look around Poland without the rose tinted glasses as the evidence is everywhere. The haves and the have nots....and its getting worse. Capitalism is directly responsible for acute inequality.
The 85 Richest People In The World Have As Much Wealth As The 3.5 Billion Poorest
I would love to post a link but it will be removed within 10 minutes, even if we are discussing Polish related matters.
people so stupid... in the 21st century Poland WILL become EUROPE'S SUPERPOWER....what do you people know about Poland other then 966, lol Poland existed in the 4th Century as well and was around WAY before Italy and others. LOL... all you people speaking based on what you hear in the media, the B.S. politics you hear about, etc. Poland was a super world power and will be again.. Poland acts in secrecy and will be granted a Blessing. Skeptics and Optimists both stupid as none of you know the truth.
I agree. Poles have that in themselves. That aristocratic mentality. Plus, they have memory of the elephant. Their penis would hit many who offended them in past time when they were in crisis.
But, we Serbians knew it and waited and we still wait. We know that Poles arising. With strong Poland, we would get kind of wings. We would practically fly.
Among the direct advantages derived from the division of labor, Adam Smith reckons the invention of many machines facilitating and abridging labor... copy-paste=removed
