Life / Advice needed on Dental implant in Poland [119]

dentestetica I was looking for a long time. Its a lot of clinic that state they do the "ALL ON 4" procedure, but after looking around, from what I could find, its only in Krakow they do the procedure with the Original Nobel Biocare.

The initial price was 15.000 euro for two jaws, but it ended up at 18.500 since I was not happy with the first protetic. I had a Toronto bridge made for my lower jaw. Had it for 3 months now, and for now I am happy.

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]

On what contition to you base that the laws of economics are not working in Norway? I assume you think the Euro is very strong? You may know that the price of oil has fallen close to 50%from its peak, and this (oil and gass) is the most important sector in the norwegian economy. When the price of oil was at 120 dollar a barrel the euro/nok cross was at 7.2-7,3, so i think a correction of 15% is according to both models, teory and also common sence. If you feel different, feel free to enlighten me!

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]

BUMP

Hehe, I had to bump this tread.

We are not there yet, but the euro/zoty cross has been touching 3.9-3,95 and atm looks to find a new place around 4.0.

It took longer time, but my best guess is still that we will reach 3,7-3.8 for the euro (I think this is the "right" fundamental value)

What that will mean for the market for apartments? No idea - Economic laws obviously dos not work in Poland!

Life / Advice needed on Dental implant in Poland [119]

Hehe - Funny! How long you been living in England again Mr Harvey James? Whole life? hehe. aaaaa love it!

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


UK should start now. I can not understand why they are waiting. A strong pound is ofcourse not good for the export, but its much better to take it 3 month to early then 3 months to late and always be one step behind the market!

US - Thats a diff story, since the flexibility in the job-market is much better. I can see the rate start to be moved a bit later, but not before there is a real pressure on the wages. I think we must see the unenployment rate dropping to 5,5 - 6% before this pressure will start!

The dark horse (as always) is China. Problems in china and the imported inflation go up all over the world. This inflation can not be controlled in normal terms with the intresterate. (at least it take much longer time... Marsahl Lerner effect).

Imported inflation from China (at least pressure from this), pluss with a lot of more money sent into the market (atm only from Japan and US), and we have a good mix!

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Yes!

When I talk about hyperinflation, keep in mind that I maybe give it a 5-10% chanse to happend. Most likly we will not be facing this. But if it happends there will be a situation that is close to 100% new for both policy makers and economist (centralbanks).

Integrated economic world, with hyperinflation in markets like Japan, Eurozone and in the US.

I would not like to be long in something that I will not be able to get rid of in very short time, if this things start!

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

10 years since I graduated, but if Im not wrong this "effect" is called extend and pretend.

Its ofcourse based on that banks can just prolong insolvent projects due to the low intrestrate, but the effect is the same for stubborn landlords (",

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Cought in Limbo!

As long as we have (for polish people) a very low intrestrate we will not see any changes in this.

I agree with you from Wroclaw that its stuppid to just sit on the apartments without lowering the prices, but as long as the intrestrate is as low as 3,8 - 5% the owners will just take a smal hit for this.

I Would like to see a more normal intrestrate, and see if we could clean out some of this.

Inflation is the oil in a capitalistic based economy. That means we need the wibor up to 4 - 4,5% and a real inflation on 2,5 - 3%. Then the economy will be more in balance, and the pricemecanisme will work better!

In Krakow there is also a slowdown. I dont know is because of the season, or its more in general.

The two most important factors for the market the next 12 months will be the Euro-inflation numbers, and what the central bank in the us do the next 3-6 months.

I think we are very close to a second wave of deflation in the whole euro zone, but we are at the same time very close to a unstable inflation spiral imported from the US, Japan and maybe also China (structural/fundamental, and not based on moneyprinting).

If the ECB are able to turn it around and lead the EURO on a stabile inflation path, I think we can see a lot of good things happend in the whole EURO area, and therefor also in Poland. I am not very optimistic for this, and maybe call me old fashion - But what I am affraid of now is a scenario with a high imported inflation from both China, Japan (not so important) and from the US, and that Germany does not have enough power to lead the ECB in the right direction. Hyperinflation in the EURO area will be very painfull for countries like spain, greece, portugal and Italy, but for Poland it will be a disaster!

My advice to day, is to "stay away" if you are able to do so, and if you need to buy, buy, but not as a investment, but for living! Where to put the money during hyperinflation? I dont know. Spend it on things that make you happy! Apartments in Poland doesnt make you happy!

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

ober-haus.pl/files/pl/files/pl/reports/aktualne/Ober-Haus%20indeks%20cen%20mieszka%C5%84%20-%20polskie%20miasta%20Kwiecie%C5%84%202014.pdf
27% you say (",

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Then the story is a bit different in Krakow.

Some unites are "dead" and most likly will not be sold untill we see a bankrupcy from the constructor.

Some units are on the other side quit popular, and (without having any numbers to back me up) I assume that the transaction volume is increasing more then eventually the prices are doing.

Firms continue to put out new buildings on the market, and there seems to be no slow down here.... I just dont get it, but I assume the margins are still way to high and that "polish stubborness" play a important role in the decisionmaking process!

Anyway - I am more positive to the market in Krakow now then I was 12 month ago, but I still think its at least a 10-15% chanse that the prices can dropp 10-15% more then next 1-3 years!

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Priceindex for March is out (Ober-haus).
ober-haus.pl/market-reports-pr

Clifnotes
- Marginally down in Warz and Krk (the same that had the most increase in February)
- Marginally up in the others
- All numbers are marginally
- Establish the consensus that we are in a horizontal trend in all major cities in Poland

Life / Advice needed on Dental implant in Poland [119]

Hi Gil

If you want I can send you all the information from our clinic here in Krakow.

10 years of experience with patients from abroad. Only second degree specialist and PhD doctors that do treatment on patients from other countries that Poland (due to NHS refunding) and modern and nice facilities.

Shoot me a email at:
dstensen@dentestetica.pl or at:
office@dentestetica.eu

and I will more then gladly send you all the information you need!

From manchester there is direct flights to Krakow and we also have acomodation (in apartments) only 30 yards from the clinic for very reasonable prices (20 pounds a night) and with good standard.

For Implant-treatment you will have to go 2 times to Krakow, for three and five days!

Regards
Dan

Classifieds / Would anyone like to play Golf in Krakow? [5]

Hi

There is two pretty og courses in Krakow (you find them by google).

Both are good in the sence that is you say you have a greencard, back home, they will let you play. As long as you let better player play in there speed, there is abs no problem.

One of the courses even have a six whole course with wholes primarly around 110 yards (up to 150-180 for the two longest). And this is a very nice way of starting to play Golf.

From Krakow it cost aprox 100zloty in taxi and if you give the driver 100 more he will wait 2-3 hours and then drive you home!

GL - FORE

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Nice material Wroc!

Anyone knows if its possible to find this data in a longer timespan then three months?

I would like to see this date over the last 5-7 years!

Btw:
I am going to buy one more apartment in Krakow during this summer.
I have 2-3 offers that I am considering atm but are still looking.

The critteria is:
- Central, north, north west area. (Around nowy kleppars area.)
- High standard, new is best.
- 33 to 45 m2

I look around a lot and have some, but I am greatfull for input of intresting units?

Life / Advice needed on Dental implant in Poland [119]

Hello

If you come to our clinic in Krakow the totalcost will be around 9.400 pln (2.300 euro) for two implants (with the abutment, healing and the final crown). You will need to visits, with at least three month waiting time for you second stage (three month if the implant is placed in the lower jaw, and six if its in the upper)

You will need two days for your first stage, and five for your second!

In this price its inculded:
- CT- Scan
- All sedation.
- X-ray
- Stichers
- controll x-ray
- Free followup and controll in fice years
- 10 years guarantee
- Implant, abutment, healing and crown.
- International brand of the implant that is used all over the world (and not only in eastern europe)

Visit ut at: dentestetica.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

ober-haus.pl/files/pl/files/pl/reports/aktualne/Ober-Haus%20indeks%20cen%20mieszka%C5%84%20-%20polskie%20miasta%20Luty%202014.pdf

New data from Ober-haus.

The trend from the last 12-18 months seems to be stable and maybe even pick up.

There is very clear signals that the market has been flat for some time now, and there is reason to think that the trend as shifted from flat-down to flat-up!

THis stats dos not say anything about what kind of apartments it is, and therefor there is at least a lag of 6-8 months before a trend can be significant, but all good news are news, right?

Owner in Krakow

Real Estate / Poland: Swiss Franc loans come back to bite [37]

Very intresting raport: warsawvoice.pl/WVpage/pages/article.php/27044/news

I am looking for the whole story, but clifnotes here is that:

- If the CHF loans had to be converted to PLN today, the polish banksector would be facing a 44.4bln pln loss!

- That loss would wipe out the legal capital necessary for running 2-3 banks in Poland.

Holy S#¤%, I hope we will see a drop in the CHF (as predicted by the french bank Credit agricole: before someone is realy going trough the loanportefolio for our bellowed polish banks!

A forced covertion (dont know from where that could come from, but take it as a technical experiment) would put Poland 5 years back - Give it a 1% chanse and a lot of investors have to redraw there risk picture of the polish market.

GL

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

ober-haus.pl/files/pl/files/pl/reports/aktualne/Ober-Haus%20indeks%20cen%20mieszka%C5%84%20-%20polskie%20miasta%20Grudzie%C5%84%202013.pdf

The numbers for Sept to December is out.

Clifnotes:
From month to month it look like all the five markets (wars, krk, poz, gda, Loz) is getting close to 0. Most markets have 2 or 3 months of falling prices and 1 or 2 month with increasing prices.

Based on this numbers I feel its rather safe to say that the fall in prices from 2008 now seem to have taken a break.

Its hard to find any fundamental variables that should give us a bounce back to the "old prices", (GDP, U-rate, Banking-changes, intrestrate) but the Psykological effect from "that the bottom is here, and now the prices will increase" is sometimes a very strong variable and should be taken into account when to predict the prices for the next 12-24 months!

GL

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Hehe

You are not alone to do that.

According to statics, the avverage sallary is 3.500 pln a month. But to drive a car for 120.000 and buy a apartmetn for 400.000 (10 times your yearly sallary) is "no problem"

I dont get it, noone I talk to from outside of Poland "get it" and I dont even want to say what the poles them self are answering when I ask about it (the knowledge about alternative cost is just not there)

But I guess we just have to adopt to it and understand that things work a bit different here compared to other economis (",

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Lot of examples of this in Krakow as well.

You can check out gardenrecidence.pl

I was very close to buy apartment here back in 2009-10. (dont remember exactly). From 450 units, still 220 is not sold!
Just for fun I sent a recuest for a cuple of months ago. "I was very intrested in a apartment - Aprox 75m2 with garrage"

Answer: Yes we have free apartment. The pice is 680.000, and you can get a garrage place for 50.000.

Fantastic (", 0% discount from the initial price back in 2008!

I dont say that just becouse the amount of mortages is increasing we are "safe". But I think it is a smal, but good, sign, that we are moving in the right direction!

Good luck with the hunt!

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Cliffnotes:
- Amount of new mortgages is increasing.
- The value of the mortgages is increasing.
- Still a way to go before they reach the top pre-financialcrises - years of 08 and 09!

Love / Advice Please! Meeting my Polish boyfriend's parents!! Gifts, customs... [105]

Frinde with your father inlaw:

Drink vodka with him - Tell him that "you can not belive" how good drinker he is!

Become very drunk, and let him win the "competition".

Next morning you tell him that you are realy impressed about his abilities and that you would like to doit again sometime!

Do this and you will:
a) Have a friend for ever. (This is just good)
b) Get a drinking problem. (This is just bad)
c) Can not expect to meet your inlaws ever again without getting atleast a bit vasted! (this is both good and bad)

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Upper left corner!

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

And
residentialadvisors.eu

Third quarter rapport from Reas!

Cliffnotes:
- Slightly increase in the prices (1.6%) (mostly do to a increased pace in the lowend market)
- Significant negative change in the suply.
- Siginficant increase in the amount of transactions.

Light in the tunnel, or just false hope?

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]


Thanks for the advice, and it may be a very good one for what I know!

I am not in that market, and I dont have enough behind me to be able to enter without loosing my nightsleep.... so I will stay out of it for at least some years!

Reason why I bring the currency question into the topic of real estate is that people tend to forget about the currency aspect when they are doing the calculations.

I know that the market of foreginers (with loan in there own currency, or euro/french) and the polish with a mortage taken in a different currency then zloty is shrinking and by fare not so important then in 2007/2010 periode, but I think that a shift of 10/20% for 10 to 20% of the players / potential players in a rather smal market as the polish real estate actualy is, the stability and eventually a appriciation of the zloty can be a very important factor to be aware of the next 1 to 3 years when we predict the market!

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]

So I am the first one to say when I am wrong!

To day the zloty is at 4,28. The Euro is getting stronger vs every single "important" currency. Dollar, yen, french.
In my head that should give a stronger zloty as well (based on history)

The reasons that this connections dos not hold this time is:
- Unsecurity about the political climate.
- A "lag" in the positive expecatations in the Euro area, so the appreciation of euro now comes from the positive signals back in the spring/summer this year!

- I am wrong. Less risk in the euro area dos not bring back the zloty to the 3.5-3.7 area to euro.

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]


What.

Even money should be 4.18 - Market is always right you know. If you think its unfair return you should go long in zloty!

Interesting numbers from GUS yesterday. For the currency not very important in the short run, but it make the fundamentals even stronger towards a stronger pln:

wbj.pl/article-63495-current-account-surprises-with-an other-surplus.html

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]


This is not the reason for this tread. Noone can realy predict the short-term fluctations, but why I started this tread was because:
- Many people from abroad that are moving to Poland would like to buy a apartment.
- They can not, or dont want to have a mortage in polish zloty, and get it in there own currency instead.

When you buy a apartment I guess the average timespan for your investment is at least 3-5 years.

If the prices of apartments are standing still the next four years (adjusted for inflation), but the zloty appreciate 20% towards the euro (my best guess), the buyer of this apartment has made a ok profit if he sell his apartment (in zloty) and pay back his loan (in euro)

I think that the risk that many people from abroad has been facing the last 4-5 years, are now heavy reduced, and I think that if the EURO-area is getting more stable, we can see a stronger zloty.

So in other words: If you as a buyer was on 50/50 to buy a apartment in Poland, and get the mortage in euro, you should be 52/48 (to buy) right now. That gives us more buyers!!!

At least I hope so!

D


The quate is from 30.07. Euro/zloty was at 4.31.
Today, at 11.08 the rate is: 4,18.

Thats a appreciation of 3%. I think this is just the beginning. When the markets start to see that the euro-area is done with the worst (for now), the risk-price of keeping zloty will go down, and the pricing of zloty will be connected to fundamentals variables in the economy. My best guess is that we will see the zloty under 4,0 against the euro before the calendar is saying November.

Since I have my mortage noted in Euro, I will be looking at a (paper)return of nearly 150.000pln just from looking at that the recovery goes faster in Spain, Berglusconi is kept away from any official office in Italy, the Greeks start to work again and that the Irish get there hands dirty again!

Nice life to sit at a outdoor serving in lovely Krakow, and drink my beer and think about this!

P.S. Any takers on a bet. Today rate is 4.18, I can go even money at 4.10... at lets say 1.desember! (100 days)

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]


The job for the centralbank is inflation, and nothing else. That has nothing to do with emotions. Some centralbanks within the same regime has more then one target, but that is per definition impossible (read a simple ISe - LM model from macroeconomy and you will see why)

Prediction about GDP in Poland. Ofcourse noone have the right answer here. The definition for a recesion is to have six month (or 2Qs) in a row with a shrinking GDP.

I can not belive Poland is going there in this round!

Compare countries - I know, but basic economic models work the same (maybe in different speed). But if you lower the intrestrate, the investment goes up, the GDP will follow and the inflation as well. Inflation is now below the target, intrestrate is lowered. When the GDP growth will catch up, the inflation will follow and so will the intrestrate!

Currencyrate: I think we will be looking at pricing conected to fundamentalvalues of the currency compared to the last 4-5 year when valuation of risk has been the most important component!

D