Real Estate / Help to buy a flat - for Poland's first time buyers [11]

pap.pl - But I don't know where exactly, however you will find it in all the news.

Most important part however is the property can't cost more than PLN 5,944 per meter for Warsaw. Some other links to related news:

The new program in Poland will support the purchase of a first home is compared to the previous two advantages : it increases the creditworthiness and promotes having children .

On Friday, the Parliament passed a law on state aid in the purchase of a first home for young people. The Act will soon be on the agenda of the Senate , and would enter into force in the first quarter of next year.

Real Estate / Help to buy a flat - for Poland's first time buyers [11]

Poland's lower house of parliament approved the draft law introducing the new state
subsidy program ŇApartments for the Youth.Ó The bill was supported by 258 MPs,
while six were against it and 175 abstained. ŇApartments for the YouthÓ is a program
directed towards married couples and single persons under the age of 35 buying new
apartments. The value of financial support will be 10 percent of the apartment's value
for those who do not have children and 15 percent for those who have with additional
subsidies when more children are born. Subsidies will be granted for up to 50 square
meters of an up to 75-square-meter apartment. Deputy Construction Minister Piotr
Styczeń told members of parliament that in 2014 the government will earmark zł.600
million for the program, then zł.715 million in 2015, zł.730 million in 2016, zł.746
million in 2017 and zł.762 million in 2018.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Will house price downturn continue until autumn 2013?

2012-08-31

Q2 2012 saw continued declines of house prices in all the major cities in Poland in the wake of the rising supply of flats on the market and a limited access to mortgage loans. The price slump is like to continue until the autumn of 2013 at least, according to a report prepared by Centrum AMRON on the basis of data stored in the AMRON and SARFiN systems.

According to the report, prices dropped by 1-3% in Q2 2012. Compared to Q1, the largest decreases were reported in Wroclaw with the average transaction price falling by PLN 182 (€43.5m) to PLN 5,473 (€1,308) per m². In Warsaw, the average home price was PLN 7,407 (€1,770) per m², down by PLN 129 (€31). In Q2 2012, housing prices in Krakow averaged at PLN 6,187 (€1,478) per m², in Poznan – at PLN 5,103 (€1,219), in Gdansk – at PLN 5,397 (€1,289), in Lodz – PLN 3,793 (€906), in the Katowice urban agglomeration – at PLN 3,166 (€756). On an annual basis, the steepest declines were reported in Wroclaw and Lodz with housing prices decreasing by PLN 673 (€161) and PLN 323 (€77), respectively.

The researchers argue that falls in transaction prices are not sufficient to encourage customers to buy flats and seek long-term loans to finance purchases. Falling wages and rising costs of living result in borrowers having a lower credit score, which counterbalances the advantages of decreasing home prices.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Yes, there may be correlation, no this statement is not a true statement.

Dom Development is trading above the 2008 (crisis) levels whereas Gant is trading below the 2008 levels. Gants stock price is a comment on Gant. If Gant and other developers go out of business, I think the effect will likely be a stall or increase in prices. Don't get me wrong, I am a bear on real estate, but as a person involved in the valuation of companies I can't imagine the spreadsheet that would reflect the valuation of Gant and a fall to 2004 prices (I expect Gant and all developers would have a theoretic negative valuation if we assumed 2004 apartment prices, although someone would likely always pay a few grosze for the shares).

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

[quote=peterweg]The report notes:


Commercial real estate transactions to increase in 2012
The value of transactions on the Polish commercial real estate market will exceed €1billion in the second half of the year, compared to €856 million in the first half of the

year, analysts forecast. This will rank Poland first in Central and Eastern Europe.According to forecasts published on Monday by consulting firm Savills, the value of

transactions on the commercial real estate market will reach between €2 and 2.5 billion and will be comparable to 2011.
Parkiet, Aug.21, p.10, KA

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Looking at it quarterly can be misleading as a relatively small number of transactions make up a significant amount of annual volume. Additionally it could be noted that Q1 2012 was 21% higher than Q1 2011. Also at the time they reported this, there was already at least one large transaction I'm aware of for Q3 2012 (see below). I would expect 2012 should be similar to 2011. There are a lot of large value properties under discussion currently; of course they could sell after 1/1/2013 instead of before 31/12/2012, but I predict Q2 2012 is in no way representative of future quarters.

"pbb Deutsche Pfandbriefbank has provided a €65.45 million senior facility to Hines Global REIT for the acquisition of a prime logistics portfolio in Poland. The transaction closed on July 24, 2012. pbb is acting as arranger, sole lender and hedge provider of this financing transaction."

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Record high discounts, demand low
Apartments on the secondary market are selling the slowest in the past three years.
That's despite the fact that owners are lowering prices. An apartment on the secondary
market is listed for an average of 168 days, i.e. close to half a year. That's the longest
since Home Broker launched its market studies in January 2009. In May the listing
time lengthened to 26 days despite additional discounts that became available during
that month. The gap between the transaction and offering price in case of apartments
has increased in the last couple of weeks to 7.2 percent from 4.5 percent in the period
from January to April.
(Rzeczpospolita, p. B1) AS

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Considering posts earlier on in the thread I thought the below may be of interest:

Polish emigrants transfer less money to Poland

When in 2007, over 2.2 million Polish citizens lived abroad money transfers from other countries to Poland reached a record level of zł.25 billion a year, which amounted to

2.5 percent of Poland's GDP. However, since then the transfers amount has been declining. Experts from Adam Smith's Center (CAS), who studied the influence of

emigrants' transfers on the Polish economy, say the decline is, for the most part, the consequence of the financial crisis, which impacted the labor market affecting Polish

emigrants especially in Great Britain and Ireland. As a result, in 2008 money transfers from abroad dropped to zł.20.6 billion. "The transfer dynamics have been falling due to

people returning from emigration and families reuniting abroad," says Ireneusz Jabłoński, board member of CAS. In 2011, the value of transfers to Poland is estimated

at zł.17 billion, which constitutes 1.42 percent of the GDP. Experts predict that the amount may remain the same in 2012.
(Parkiet, p.9) AS

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Higher interest rates expected to drive real estate prices down
The recent 0.25 percentage point increase in interest rates may mean a slowdown in
lending. That in turn will cause the values of homes and apartments to go down,
analysts, banking experts and developers say. The drop in real estate values may reach
4-10 percent in the next two years, they estimate. Since 2008, i.e. since the collapse of
Lehman Brothers, which affected the real estate sector, the prices of homes and
apartments in the largest 15 cities have dropped by over 14 percent, and in the last 12
months, as analysts from Open Finance point out - by 9.4 percent.
(Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, p.5) AS

Real Estate / Thinking of buying an offplan Luxury Property Wroclaw [79]


Freudian slip?

A Freudian slip, also called parapraxis, is an error in speech, memory, or physical action that is interpreted as occurring due to the interference of some unconscious ("dynamically repressed"), subdued wish, conflict, or train of thought. The concept is thus part of classical psychoanalysis.

The 90% price reduction you've been waiting for?

Real Estate / Investing in land in Poland? [7]

A lot of people are interested if the price and location are right.

Can you try to be a little more specific, location, type of land, size of the land, zoning of the land.

If the price/location are bad, then you can probably answer the question yourself.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


FYI - Peter is calling for inflation and prices increasing now - recommending gold to hedge inflation

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I can't comment on Ireland, I have no knowledge of this market.

58% drop in Warsaw:
-probably would be healthy
-still above the amount Milky interested in buying at, so his money would stay on the sidelines
-potentially would stop all residential development in Poland, which would lead to a recovery in prices, which would lead to developers developing again - at the end of the day Poland needs more apartments

-unlikely the apartments I would be interested in buying would fall 58%, but the general economy wins
-I still wouldn't be interested in being a landlord (at any price) but likely would create demand from people that want to move out of their 'too small' apartments

One day all the pesimists may be able to say I told you so

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Please don't go attacking McDonalds now, is nothing sacred. Supersize me, one of top misleading films everywhere. It isn’t the healthiest food, but it really isn’t that bad (with the salad instead of the fries).

Regardless, of course if you call a crash, you will eventually be right. I always liked the analogy that even a broken clock is right twice.

Polish real estate is still viewed as attractive to developers/investors (compared to other countries). Of course these leads to the situation of over-supply and an ultimate fall in prices.

As an investor, I wouldn't buy Polish real estate, as a person who wanted to own his own home, I bought.
Milky, I think you would fall into my group, good luck at identifying the bottom (but I agree with waiting for further decreases).
Regarding renting, I rented my first 10 years in Poland - my landlord was absolutely perfect, I actually miss her sometimes. I also substantially reduced the rent over 10 years - she had the attitude that it is better to have a good tenant for less money than a bad tenant or changing tenants or no tenant for more money - but this isn't the common view of landlords in Poland.

If prices did fall by any significant level, there is an enormous amount of money on the sidelines waiting to take advantage of this situation.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

My comments are directed towards Warsaw, but may be equally applicable to some other key cities.

More likely a combination of both.

Also I suspect where prices fall most, many of us won't want to live.

In the most desireable locations I don't think we will see people willing to sell at lower prices unless they are forced (eg. transferred to another city), even then they may choose to rent out instead.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Interesting article about the overheated Toronto market - I know this board loves statistics like "61% of the household income".
While the article may indicate that Warsaw is better off than Toronto; one important difference I believe is that the Toronto market is relatively liquid at the various price levels.

theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/rob-carrick/homebuyers-beware-market-sucker-punch/article2374242

The Toronto market may just cool off on its own. Royal Bank of Canada's latest data on housing affordability shows that mortgage payments, property taxes and utility costs for a standard two-storey home in the city were equal to 61 per cent of the median pre-tax household income at the end of 2011.

Three possible measures have been discussed as ways to slow the housing market:
-Reduce the maximum amortization period back to 25 years from the 30-year option introduced back in 2006, along with a 35-year option that is now defunct.
-Raise the minimum down payment from the current 5 per cent;
-Use tougher stress tests on new mortgage borrowers that would measure their ability to carry mortgages at the higher interest rates we'll see eventually.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


ok, understood, it was the exchange rate that killed them

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I'm having trouble with the math.

Assuming it was a 25 year mortgage paying down to zero, I ran some quick calculations.

To pay down the mortgage by only PLN 100 the interest rate would have to be 24% and they would have to pay PLN 3910 per month.
If the interest rate was 10% they would pay PLN 1772 a month and pay the mortgage down by PLN 1847 in the first year.

Could it be that the payments they were making were going to the fee to arrange the loan first and then to principle?

If you give me their monthly payment and the rate they pay I can run an amortization schedule and make them feel better.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

google translation

In cities such as Lodz, Katowice, Bydgoszcz and Gorzow Wielkopolski apartments can be bought used for less than three thousand. zł per square meter. This price does not mean a bad standard, but a worse location, and usually a larger area - underline analysts.

In smaller towns, flats, especially in the secondary market, prices are relatively competitive. The data service Ofert.net that, in Lodz, the lowest bid per square meter of your home are 2.8 thousand. zł, 2.7 thousand in Katowice. zł per sq. m is even cheaper in Bydgoszcz , where the lowest asking prices of flats on the other hand are 2.6 thousand. zł per sq. m, and Gorzów these prices fluctuate around two thousand. zł died sq Drogomirecki Martin, principal analyst Oferty.net service, ensures that the cheapest bid is contrary to appearances, they are not vandalized properties in the ruined buildings.

- These are usually properties in quite good condition. Their low prices due to the fact that this was worse than central locations - Drogomirecki said. The second factor that influences the price reduction per square meter, is, according to analyst area. The relationship is such that the flat surface is higher, the price per square meter lower. apartments cheaper because wages are low According to Jaroslaw leap, a representative office in the agency Emmerson, low housing prices in cities such as Lodz , Katowice , whether due to Gorzow that in these markets is at a standstill. - There is a lack of purchasing power in these cities because people earn much less than in urban areas such as Warsaw - said Skoczeń. He added that all these local factors compounded the crisis which has affected the housing market even in large cities and small is often felt even more.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Like I said - you can't trust any data anywhere - at best it is not comparable apartments (ie. more lower standard/smaller apartments are being sold).

Some more data from the news today for those who like data

Apartments losing value
Not all real estate markets in Europe have bounced back from the financial crisis - and
the Polish one belongs to them. Apartments have become cheaper since the 2007
housing bubble. Taking into account inflation, average value has fallen by a quarter,
according to professor Michael Ball from Reading University in Great Britain.
According to his newest report, "2012 RICS European Housing Review," it appears in
Ireland prices have fallen by more than 50% and in Great Britain and Hungary, by
more than 30%.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

good question, I went to the source and it seems what they quoted for Warsaw is actually for Poland, by city info below. I'd recommend checking the website for the full article (not that you can trust any data anywhere - I doubt the country data they use is even comparable) - globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/Price-History

Yet Poland's housing market was Europe's second-worst performer in 2011, down by 10.55% in inflation-adjusted terms.
Prices fell less in major cities, but the downturn is significant:
· In Warsaw, the average price of "exposed units" (i.e. used units) fell 6.6% in 2011 (6.97% in real terms), according to REAS.
· Krakow used dwelling prices fell 5.53% (5.90% in real terms).
· Poznan used dwelling prices fell 4.57% (4.95% in real terms).
· Lodtz used dwelling prices fell 5.46% (5.83% in real terms).
· Tri-City used dwelling prices fell 3.44% (3.82% in real terms).
· Wroclaw used dwelling prices fell 8.39% (8.75% in real terms).
Compared to pre-crisis peaks:
· House prices in Warsaw are down by 13.63% (13.53% in real terms).
· In Krakow, house prices are down by 11.80% (13.2% in real terms).
· In Lodz, prices have fallen by 17.87.% (17.67% in real terms).
· In Tri-City, house prices plunged by 25.22% (26.62% in real terms).
· In Wroclaw, house prices are down by 31.91% (31.81% in real terms).
· In Poznan, property prices plummeted by 44.08% (44.18% in real terms).

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Warsaw stats and comparison - article extracts below:

Global housing market downturn gathering pace
Tuesday 28 February 2012The world’s housing downturn is gathering momentum, according to the latest world-wide survey of house price indices prepared by the Global Property Guide. During 2011, house prices fell in 22 countries, of the 35 countries for which Q4 house price statistics are available, and rose in only 13 countries. Similarly, 21 housing markets performed worse during 2011 than last year, while only 14 countries performed better.

The figures for the 4th quarter of 2011 are somewhat worrying, with quarterly price rises in only 10 countries, but price falls in 25 countries. On the other hand, the apparent trend towards recovery in the US is positive.

The Global Property Guide’s statistical presentation uses price-changes after inflation, giving a more realistic picture than the more upbeat nominal figures usually preferred by real estate agents.

European housing markets still heading down
Most countries whose housing markets experienced accelerated downturns in 2011 are located in Europe, including Finland (-2.22% down in 2011), United Kingdom (-3.39%), Sweden (-5.29%), Netherlands (-5.77%), Slovak Republic (-6.88%), Portugal (-7.78%), Spain (-9.27%), Athens, Greece (-10.43%), and Warsaw, Poland (-10.55%).

Unhappy Ireland still holds the title of ‘world’s weakest housing market’, with house prices plummeting by 18.08% in 2011. With low transactions, constrained mortgage lending, and an uncertain economic environment, Irish house prices are likely to continue falling in 2012.

However, several European countries actually enjoyed house price rises in 2011. The highest house price climb in Europe was in Tallinn, Estonia, whose property market has been recovering since the second half of 2010. Over the past twelve months, house prices in Tallinn rose 8.36%.

Housing markets in the Ukraine and Iceland finally bounced back in the final quarter of 2011. In Kiev, apartment prices climbed by 5.29% (in nominal terms) from a year earlier, after falling 9.47% the previous year. Likewise, house prices in Iceland rose 1.84% year-on-year, after falling 4.18% the previous year.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

28 m2 doesn't sound so bad compared to 78 sq ft in New York

ca.shine.yahoo/manhattan-s-newest--smallest-apartment---architect-lives-in-78-square-foot-abode.html

Real Estate / IS IT A GOOD TIME TO INVEST IN POLISH REAL ESTATE? [83]


Hate to be negative, but for a first post, this sounds like someone trying to 'market' a product.

Real Estate / ADVICE please: Rightful owner of property in Poland? Property Value? [32]

delphiandomine

is this specific to the situation or in general? my understanding was a will is valid in Poland (in addition to if it is signed with a notary) if:

it was in writing or
it was witnessed by two people

of course I could be wrong - but please let me know as it would mean my will is not valid.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


Is it time to start the gold bubble thread?

forbes.com/sites/feeonlyplanner/2011/08/28/gold-bubble-or-not/

Final line: It is anybody's guess when gold will correct, but it is very likely that it will be ugly when it does.
Or should we sing the song of oil and silver and all the commodities.

End of the day trust people's addictions, I bought Philip Morris during the 2008 crisis and if we have another crash I'll double or triple my investment - even the freezing cold doesn't stop the smokers from smoking. Sure they have no problem renting - but somehow they always find the money to buy cigarettes.

I welcome all suggestions, what to do with $100,000 today (investing in any currency).

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


You're right - but most of what is written in this thread is nonsense - so I don't try too hard :-)

Reality today most people with money don't really have safe options how to invest it - people without money are basically in trouble

I'm not sure how/if this will ever clean up - while we may not repeat what happened in Japan - it really is impossible knowing what to do - while I feel apartment prices will drop, I do feel better being diversified (owning property and multiple currency savings and shares)

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


If the zloty does tank there could be positive consequences for housing:

-foreigners will be more hesitent to sell their apartments, preferring to wait (as the price of apartments fall and the amount translated into their home currency also falls due to exchange)

-Poland might start to look attractive for foreign investment again (as in EURO, USD, GBP or whaterever the apartments will get cheaper combined with the fall in zloty prices)

-Polish people working abroad could get more zloty for the Polish savings, making housing less expensive
-people with Swiss Franc or other currency loans will continue to pay their loans off (they can't sell as they wouldn't have enough to pay off the loan)

Therefore a fall of the zloty could offer some support for housing prices if we believe the foreigners and Polish working abroad have such a large influence - personally I think these factors don't have as much influence as some would want us to believe.