Real Estate / Poland Real Estate 2013 -drops in offer prices, lack of liquidity indicate market crashing [39]

Sorry if any mistakes. First post!

I have followed the market pretty good the last 4-5 years, focusing on Krakow (where I stay at the moment)

I think that the market for apartments is going to be very bad the next 2-3 years. The new legislations laws about how the developers can finance there projects (cant use from the escrow acounts) has sent the market out of balance (havent been in balance since 2005).

To many grants are given, and to many projects have been startet priort to april 2012. It will take long time to get everything done, but places like Krakow as a crazy overhang of suply.

After april 2012, there is a dramatic reductions in both aplications and grants. The problem is that it take so long time for this to get reflexed in the market. I think (maybe more hope) that it will only take 2-3 years, and that the developers and banks has found a healthy way of dealing with this new set of regulations, and that we slowly can see a normal pace in the construction of new projects.

Noone, in the long run, benefit from a market out of balance. If its over or under investments dos not matter. We need stability. I hope that the adaptions of the new ruls dont go to quickly, but for sure the worst thing that can happend is that it goes to slow. My experience with the polish banks is that we may risk option nr 2... If so: Run and buy, but not untill spring 2014!!!

Real Estate / Supply vs Demand - How long can contractors continue to push? Krakow [15]

To have over 50% unsold units, and not reduce the prices, sounds to me like the sure thing of going to h¤%&

With the capitalcost that I guess these developer have (6 to 10%) to have 1 unsold unit, of let say, 500.000pln they drop between 30.000 and 50.000 in rentalcost on a yearly basis. Keep in mind that a lost oppurtinty to make money, has the same value of actually have to pay money!

I havent been all over the world, but in those areas I have been involved the last 15-20 years something I have never seen anything like this. Ofcourse you have irland and Spain atm due to the financial crises that hit them after a massive boom in the consruction sector (market out of ballance), but Poland is not supposed to be hit by this crises, but the market stil seems to, voluntarly from the supply side, to be out of balance.


If this is correct. Then they should just come to Krakow. Maybe 5.000 - 10.000 apartments, ready to move in, fresh from the market, UNSOLD!

Real Estate / Supply vs Demand - How long can contractors continue to push? Krakow [15]

Thanks for this paper.


According to this rapport the market is clearly more in balance then how it feels and look like for me. So this is a very good read.

What I am affraid of is 1) Not correct numbers and, 2) a big difference (in prosent) between sentrum and pereferi. (In the fact that sentrum is ofcourse the intresting area for everyong that invest in this market and that the relativ % is much worse here compared to the average numbers.)

The raport also state a upsvinge in prices both in Warsaw and Wroclaw. Intresting to see if this continue and affect the other cities. Upsvinge in GDP, lower intrestrate is good news,

While a climbing unemployment rate may ease the demand pressure in the bottom market.

Life / Grass is always greener? Poland experience. [69]

This


No need to talk about this topic anymore!

Real Estate / English speaking Estate Agents In Poland? [18]

Hello.

I have some apartments I rent out. Good standard, but more "pricy" then the average.

Send me your mail and I can send you some pictures and prices.

D

Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]

Hehe, I must say. This is rather funny reading - Milkey and Pip, Pip and Milkey!

You put to much personal intrest in it. When you Milkey say that the prices in Krakow is back to 2006 and that we are in a buble I must disagree with you. Maybe the prices are back to that level and that this new avverage price reflexts the economical environment better then the prices from 2009 - 2010 did.

To say that we are in a buble, is maybe to drag it to fare. In 2010, yes, today, maybe no.

Today the prices has falen for nearly 36 months straight. From my point of view its not a buble that has exploded, its more that the peoples expectations has adjusted (a bit slower in Poland then in other markets), some foreign investors has pulled out and a rather stiff depreciation of the zloty. Are we done with the downturn? I dont know, but from where I stand, the downturn has been moderate and controlled, and not like the typical pattern after a buble witch is dramatic fall within a limited time span. I would call this periode a adjustment of expactations, and maybe edjucation periode for both polish landlords, contracters and speculators. Not a buble burst.

To you Pip. The prices has fallen, and they have fallen quit a lot. It not so easy to see it if you just think of a drop from 9.500 to 8.500 during a 36 month periode. If you adjust it for the inflation, the capitalcost (that has been crazy high in Poland way to long) and the decepraiton of the currency, the numbers become very very nasty and you dont need much imagination to understand that those investors will have serious problems to come back to this market, not in the nearest future, maybe forever.

Beside that: Intresting reading - Keep it coming. More links to statics to establish / underpin your own arguments is highly appreciated!

Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]


This is ofcourse true. But when you are discussing economy I think its good to stay away from personal experience and rather focus on the facts. The fact is that today there is no buble (People are not buying overvalued uniteds with the intention to "find the even bigger fool" that can pay even more) BTW: Thats my very short definition of a buble.

When prices is faling rather stedy 3-7 prosent a year thats a market correction and not a buble.

Back in 2008-10 you may say you had a realestate buble. Not 100% like the one we have had in Spain, Irland etc, but surly the fundamental economy could not back up the prices that we had back then.


Well for many people that is a soft definition of a buble: When a lot of finished units remains empty over a long periode of time, and the number increases, it indicates that the market is not in balance. E.G: In Norway if 1000 finished apartments where standing empty in Oslo we whould cry that the buble has burst, and we are now going stright to hell. I know (but dont understand) that the mecanisme in Poland work slower, and that the market need longer time to correct itself, but the sum of many new empty projects without buyers, steady drop in prices, a rising unemployment and a slowing growth rate is all indicators that show that there will still take some time before we will see the prices go up.

If you dont want to call it a buble, ok i actually agree with you (today, not in 2009) but keep in mind that with same conditions in many other countries there would be no doubt about it - The buble still release air - Cold air!

Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]


Keep in mind that if the prices has fallen, let say 30% from the top in 4 years that is actually quit a lot, but you also have to add the capitalcost and the currency "cost" as well (for foreigners) and the inflationrate for (polish investors) in the same periode.

If you rather moderate assume a generalt inflation of 12% (in these four years) and the depreciation of the zloty (towards euro) to 30% in the same periode, the investor has lost a lot of money in a rather short time, and for many investor this loose is more then just a "adjustment" of the prices, and feels more like a shinking ship that they can never restore from!

Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]


If i bought a apartment in 2008 for 320.000pln it would cost be aprox 100.000 euro.

Lets say that I boorwed this 100.000 euro.

Then I sell it today, and let say I will get a price of 320.000pln for it. I change that into my currency to pay back my loan, and I get: 77.000 euro.

If you add capitalcost of 10% in these four years I am back even more - 67.000 euro.

And then add for the real price I can get: Let say, 250.000 pln (aprox 20% pricefall). My example gets even worse:

250.000 pln to day would give me aprox 60.000 euro.

As you can see, if the prices has fallen 20% a foregin investor (with euro has his currency) has lost already 40%.

I know you know about this, but I just wanted to show you a example in numbers that state what kind of conditions investors that arrived in 07-09 era is facing today.

I guess its ok to say that with that kind of losses, there will take some time to get them back!

Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]

Interesting Statics for the first 2 months.

Highlights:
- Number of finished dwelings are up with 2,8% compared to last month.
- Permission to start build is down with 24,1%
- Started bulidings are down with 27.3%

Funny part is that the "headline" in the static from GUS is the tiny increase of 2,8% and not the numbers that is truly significant!

Real Estate / Statistics directly related to prices or potential price movement of real estate in Poland [7]


I agree. No question that there is a oversupply right now. At least in the pricerange between 7.000 to 10.000 per m2.

When I write 12-18 months I write from my biased point of view (since I already is in the market). These things moves in cycles, and when there is very easy to turn around (nearly on a weekly basis) to start to work, the paperwork (permissions) is something that will take longer time to turn around. The lag in the polish system has always been quit long, and with the new regulationslaw I just assume that it has been even longer.

I am not cheering for a totalstop in supply, but I think a health slowdown, conected to a increassed demand will have a positive effect on stabilizing the market, and we can not have a healty return on our investments if not the market is in some form of equivalence. If this is the fact in 12 - 18 - 24 months I dont know! But that these numbers we are talking about is a step in the right direction (even if they hardly can given a significant value after just 2 months)

Btw: I dont boil my eggs, I fry them and eat them with bacon, and if its a good day I even take a smal Tyskie for breakfast

Life / Advice needed on Dental implant in Poland [119]

Hello

Try the clinic: dentestetica.eu

Its the best clinic in Krakow. Not the cheapest but for implants quality, safty and guarantee is more important then 5-10%!

D

Real Estate / Statistics directly related to prices or potential price movement of real estate in Poland [7]

I am looking for a link to find information about the derivative market.

According to Bloomberg the nine month forward rate agreement for the intrestrate is getting traded at 2,74 atm. Anyone know where to find this statics/numbers? I guess money.pl is a good start, but my polish is not very good and I have no chanse to find this spesifics

(I would like my kapitalcost to go even further down. So for once I am hoping the market have right!)

Nor

P.S. Also nice to get a discussion what this massive cuts in the intrestrate will mean for the prices. From my point of view this is mainly a short-term effect, since the lower Kap-Cost first affect the buyers, but will after a while increase the supply of new condos since the cost for developers will also go down). The second effect will come slower, but I think this "graph" is more sensitive to this changes!

Real Estate / Statistics directly related to prices or potential price movement of real estate in Poland [7]

Intrestrate from the polish national bank keept at the same level at today meeting.

My analyse of this is that the members are not looking at a recession as a possible outcome and that the "downswing" of the economy is neutralised and under controll.

We will therefor see no more ratecuts atm and hopefully we will get statistics that confirm this the next 3 - 12 months.

Isolated this is good news for people that want the prices of apartments to go up (",

BTW: Yes I am already in the market, and yes I have intrest in a upswing in the prices!

Travel / Hunting in Malapolska (Krakow area) [5]


I am sorry. I made "direct translation" in my head from Norwegian to English. I mean ofcourse to rent the right to hunt! To make it clear. I would like to get intouch with someone that is preparing for hunting and are selling "huntingpackages" that includes the right to hunt, rent of guns, acomodations, food etc!

eg, if you want to come to Norway for some moosehunt I can set you up rather good (",

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I must say I find it quit "polish" that you still are stating this. The prices of polish reel estate was way to high in 2006-2009. Much higher then the fundamental economic variables would indicate. The foregin (idiot) investments + a major change in the expectation in the polish market have to take most of the explanation of this! Therby buble!

The reason why the prices has been faling so slow as they actually have is in my opinion a mix of Polish stubbornness, a banksector with litle experience and that the growth in the GDP as keept a smal hope in many investors that Poland is the one market that dos not follow the same rules that anyone else (Prices get decided by the suply and demand)

DIfferent statics shows a pricefall around 20 - 35%. For all of this there is 2 missing things: Inflation (very high in poland compared to other EU countris), High capital cost ("polish investors" have had a significant higher capital cost then investors in other countrises eg in the EU. This "cost" add to the lost money from the fall in prices)

The last thing that is important for international investors is the drop in the zloty compared to the Euro. If you add a 20-25% drop in the currency on top of the 3 points mentioned above you will see that the investor has lost way over 50% from his investment (foreing investor back in 2008).

So please stop this crap that this is a "natural" pricemovment. It has been a buble and hopefully we are close to the end of it and we may have a steady market for som years infront of us!

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Hehe ye I agree. I was actually hoping that the suplyside had potential of slowing down for a while... but after checking around the last 2-3 weeks there seems to be no indication of this. From a "normal" point of view that have to mean one out of two things. Either the margin in this market is so much higher then in the rest of Europe so they can continue this madness, or 2) we will see more smal and medium companies file for bankrupcy the next 1-3 years!


This is a very good point. Ofcourse if you ought a apartment for 350.000 and you dont have to sell it today, the price is still 350.000. No matter that the actual price you would get is no more then 280 max 300! I think we are talking about the polish stobbernness here (",

I dont have any numbers of total units that "changed hands" per day in 2008, but my guess is that its a bit higher then we are seeing today!

BTW: I am in at 7.500 per m2 and at least I hope I am still in the green... but I will not be very surprised if it take as much as 24 months untill we can start to talk about a "bottom"

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I agree, and you should nt since you only have to think about absolute prices.

The reason why this thing is a rather important factor is:
1) Local investor that wanted to lower there capital cost by taking the loan in Euro, or CHF, has had a very big cost by doing this. As long as they don't sell they don't see this (this also show how bad and inexperienced the Polish bank system are).

Local investors that have not done this and have taken there loan in local currency have had a much higher capital cost then average investors in other countries. The capital cost I would estimate has been on a average of 7-8% during the last five years for them. (very rough estimate, please correct me if I am wrong)

So what i point out here is that investors in polish reel estate market since 2006, must either: Lost a lot of money by the currency change, or have had a very high cost on its capital. (its called alternative cost if you don't need to take a credit, and it doesn't matter for the conclusion)

2) The international investors are not a very big part of the polish market. But that is actually not so important. The important thing here is that they invest in these project that is getting media. And when these investors is "fighting" for the best objects the liquids in the market goes up, and prices of a very small part of the market also goes up.

This result again to a change in expectations in the "normal polish investor" and also for the developers. Many (to many) projects will get started on false hopes since this is speculation and not based on real economic factors.

So again. The international investor dos not play a big part in the polish market, but back in the days in changed more of the market then its relatively small proportion of the market should let them do.

And as a last point:
28.06.2008: you got 1,97 zloty per CHF
20.05.2013: You got 3,30 zloty per CHF.

If you took a loan in CHF on the first date, for let say 100.000 CHF, you could buy a apartment with a value of 197.000 pln.

Let say you have to sell this apartment to day, with a 25% discount and then you want to pay back your loan?

You will sell it for 147.750 zloty.

I don't think the bank man will be very happy when you are coming with this 147.750 pln (equal 44.772 CHF to day) and you want to get rid of your loan that is twice as big as the amount of money you bring!!!

If you have lost only 5%, that is very good. But there are some other that has lost more!

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I would like to get the opinion from other people on this:

Since I invested my first zloty into the polish market the capitalcost I face has dropped 48%. I also see that the consensus is that the centralbank will continue to cut the intrestrate, maybe as much as one point during the next six months!

How dos this affect your decissionmaking in the short run?

How will this affect the developer and the amount of new projects?

In other economies (pre the financial crises) a cut in the intrestrate ment only one thing for the real estate market, but I am not so sure that is true in Poland atm!

Input, anyone?

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

delphiandomine

Sorry, but: What?


ober-haus.pl/files/pl/files/en/reports/actual/Ober-Haus%20Polish%20Cities%20Apartment%20Price%20Index%20September%202013.pdf

Real Estate / Negotiating - how low will developers go? (Krakow) [4]

I assume you are not polish, and this is the first apartment you are going to buy here?

If so, be ready to run into so manu unproffesional people that you most likly want to quit...

For some of this people its better to let a apartment like this be empty for 3 years instead of selling it with a 10% dicount, even if "a similar apartment on the other side of the street" is sold for a prive equi to a discount of 12%

I dont know the pro you are looking at, but for sure the margin to the contracter is more then 15%, so it depends on 1) How long has the apartment been standing ready/empty, 2) How much is already sold, 3) How high up in the organisation is the person you are talking to (you need to speak to the boss)

I would never buy for that price to day, spes if the apartment is more then 25-28 m2! I guess 6.800 to 7.200 is aceptable (but it will ofcourse depend on how nice and smart the apartment is)

GL!

Real Estate / Buying a flat in Krakow; prices are still falling? [200]

Hehe

First time I went to the lady in the bank with my details there was no problem to borrow 2M pln! I needed not more then 700K, so I tought that that was not going to be any problem!

It took me nearly a year to have all the paperwork done, and it felt like I had to take a new copy of all my papers everytime I did something.

Generaly: ARG.

BTW: 10K Euro a month is not very strange in Norway (brutto), but you have to remember that the government take a big pice of this for tax reasons!

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]


No I dont. The tread is started under real estate. I know many people that are looking to buy apartment in Poland would like to borrow in there own currency (maybe easier, have there income there, or get a better rate). If they consider going into the market, my five sent tells me that the risk attached to currency (weaker zloty towards spes euro) is smaler now then it nearly ever have been.


Evidence: Hehe, I hope you are joking and are not so stupid as it may seem!

I base my prediction on the following 3 facts:
- Growth in GDP has been and will continue to be stronger in Poland comared to the EURO area as a whole.
- The current account defecit is smaler in Poland then in the euro area as a whole.
- The polish intrestrate have been, and will continue to be higher then the euro rate.

Thats the long term facts, that I dont think its possible to not agree about, then comes the two factors that may be negotiable.
- The trust in the european markets is coming back. (Both in Poland but for sure in the euro area)
- The recession is over, soon over, and we will see economic growth in Europe again.

My prediction is based on that the to latter points will help the pln to get stronger towards currency like the euro and also french and dollars!

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]

But do you agree... when the risk in the eurozone goes down, the fundamental values would give us a stronger zloty (when the riskavers goes down).

So if you think that the "worst is over" we could face a 10-20% appreciation of the zloty towards Euro!

Or is the todaylevel the correct (based on the fundamentals)?

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]


I am sorry, but you are wrong. The goal for the NBP is the inflation. LIke all countries with a free float of the currency the intrestrate is getting set to have a stabil inflation. For Poland I thnk the accepted bands is from 1,5 to 3,5. For norway the goal is 2,5% and for the european centralbank the goal is to have a long term inflation around 2.0%

The centralbank has one tool (the intrestrate) and if you have been reading makro economy you will know that they can only "controll" one variable. In today regime that is Inflation, and inflation only!

Some want them to also care about bubles in the realestatemarket, employmentrate etc, but that is per definition impossible!

I can not understand why someone mean that Poland is going in to recession. Both the IMF and OECD has adjusted there prediction for GDB upwards both for 2013 and 2014. The same with the central bank of Poland. I belive more in these institutions compared to doomdays-troll at this forum (",

A stronger relativ current account balance to the euro-area means that relatively more people want/need pln comared to Euro. if it is minus or pluss in real number dos not matter. The currency "game" is a zero sum game, where evereything is relativ to each other and not what happens in real-terms!

Real Estate / Stronger zloty - potential driver for Poland's property market [42]


The job for the centralbank is inflation, and nothing else. That has nothing to do with emotions. Some centralbanks within the same regime has more then one target, but that is per definition impossible (read a simple ISe - LM model from macroeconomy and you will see why)

Prediction about GDP in Poland. Ofcourse noone have the right answer here. The definition for a recesion is to have six month (or 2Qs) in a row with a shrinking GDP.

I can not belive Poland is going there in this round!

Compare countries - I know, but basic economic models work the same (maybe in different speed). But if you lower the intrestrate, the investment goes up, the GDP will follow and the inflation as well. Inflation is now below the target, intrestrate is lowered. When the GDP growth will catch up, the inflation will follow and so will the intrestrate!

Currencyrate: I think we will be looking at pricing conected to fundamentalvalues of the currency compared to the last 4-5 year when valuation of risk has been the most important component!

D