Work / Jobs for non Polish speakers? [24]

While it is not impossible, I work for a large company that had a large number of non-Polish speakers working for it 10 years ago. We are no longer interested in hiring individuals who do not have english as their native language. Additionally I have a large number of expats who have lost their jobs in Poland and have contacted me regarding any possible positions for them, unfortunately they have not been able to find jobs (even when they have learned the Polish language to a level where they are able to work in Polish).

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I've been enjoying this discussion for too long and couldn't resist giving my thoughts any longer.

To give some perspective, I purchased a new apartment in central Warsaw last year KNOWING it will likely drop in value, just a decision I decided to make after renting for so long; I just thought it was time to buy an apartment that I could finish and incorporate features you just won't find in 99.9% of the rental properties.

Regarding the press, even the negative articles seem to be overly optimistic. I espescially enjoy the articles about the so called 'luxury apartments' which is what they call the one I purchased. They definately are not a good investment, I could have rented the apartment I purchased for LESS than the interest I generated on the cash I used.

As interest rates rise, the number of vacant apartment rise, the 5 year period passes (related to taxation of sale of apartments), perpetual usufruct fees are increased (there are huge discrepencies in the rates paid between properties), 'new' apartments age and, god forbid, property taxes are introduced based on the market value of properties, the value of apartments will decrease.

There are of course positives, but I am confident that prices will fall (definately when inflation is considered, but likely ignoring inflation as well).

Do I care? A little, however as long as I am in Poland, if I sell the apartment I would expect to be able to buy a comperable apartment for the proceeds - therefore I would never 'realize' the loss (however wish I would have bought in 2004 when I started looking, although the apartment I bought at the time wasn't even designed yet).

Polsky/Milky will NEVER own anything however, as they have 'dream' expectations. Reality is if prices ever approached the amounts that they suggest the demand for apartments would absorb the apartments in the market.

Postings such as the below are ridiculous:

So about 1700 PLN/sq.m. will be te price at the end of 2011-2012
posted by polsky on Mar.02.2010

However I'm looking forward to the end of 2012 when we can reflect on this posting.

Ultimately I would say I support Polsky/Milky's views, however they are so unrealistic in their expectations they lose all credibility.

My suggestion would be rent, unless you find a 'perfect' apartment and have excess cash, then buy and make yourself happy if you are not concerned with the value dropping.

Now my question to all the posters, when you have cash, what should you do with it? There seem to be few, if any good investment alternatives in any currency, maybe someone would have a different view?

Real Estate / Mokotów (Warsaw) or other areas with kids? [4]

Will you drive to work? if not, a place in mokotow near the metro may be good (espescially in about 3 years when the Rondo Onz metro stop opens).

A friend of mine lives in żoliborz on gwiaździsta - there is a huge amazing park across the street (including a 5 km path around the park). If you drive to work it may be a good place - if you drive down the street you can't miss it on the right, I think you would be about 6 km from the center.

personally I would live in the center, there are some parks behind Grzybowska, but they don't compare to the park on gwiaździsta.

Life / Car or no car to commute in Warszawa? (Warsaw) [13]

I lived here for 8 years without a car and didn't think it was necessary.

I've now owned a car for 3 years and realized life is noticeably better with a car than without in Warsaw.

New cars here are expensive, so you may want to consider bringing yours - I believe if you owned it >6 months you can bring it in tax free (you'll want to confirm this) and potentially there are modifications that would be necessary.

However if you are just here for a short time I wouldn't bring a car.

Regarding riding a bike, I don't find it that bike friendly here (in the center of Warsaw).

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]

While I agree you aren't going to make any money on Polish real estate, 48,000 empty new flats may not be that many in a country that actual has a need for new flats.

Spain has a similar population, less need, and over 700,000 new flats empty and signficantly more new & used flats sitting empty.

Additionally, at least part of the reason for the fall in prices is developers are building cheaper flats intentially, as that is what the market wants, in often less desireable parts of the cities to a lower standard (but still of reasonable quality).

Having said that, I'm interested in seeing how long it takes to sell some of the projects currently being built, eg. ul.Twarda at an average price of PLN 20,000 and zlota 44 at an average price of PLN 30,000 - I have a hard time believing the Polish market will absorb such flats at such prices even over a period of 5 years, will be fun to watch.

Let's hope prices crash accross the board, I would love the possibility to purchase quality apartments in Mokotow at a fraction of the current price, sadly it is unlikely to happen - maybe there will be some good deals in Białołęka if anyone would like to move out there

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]

Wroclaw

one strategy may be to keep the price the same but add sweeteners (free parking spot, finish the apartment, free kitchen) - effectively the prior buyers may be a 'little' less upset

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


Could you ask your friend where he 'heard' this - if he did say this, I wouldn't trust much of what his says (unless this is an isolated error).

While I believe market driven property taxes will come one day, it will never be 10%.

In Canada we were paying 2% years ago on my house and it was considered very high.

What is more likely to happend in the near term is increases in perpetual usufruct fees, I've heard of fees being increased substantially recently on re-assessment (as they are based on a 1% of the fair value of the land for residential property and have often never been increased to reflect current market values).

Real Estate / CZYNSZ - payment issue - help [43]


It would anger me if someone agreed to something and never kept their side.
My friend in Canada promised to pay me back $1,600 20 years ago and still hasn't.

Please don't make this a country thing - i had a landlord in Poland for 10 years and can not imagine anyone better/more honest.

When foreigners claim an issue results from 'Poland' they make all foreigners look bad.

If anyone is not happy here, please leave quickly.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]

Is it just me, or is this thread all over the map?

Poland has been doing well, but all good things come to an end (or at least a slowdown).

If we are talking about apartments, I would have an issue with anyone who says there will not be some good deals in the future - but it will be rare anyone will sell in choice location apartments at severely discounted prices. For the average Pole it is clear waiting for a good opportunity and desparate sellers is the best stategy.

Currently Poland is still ok, there is still investment (welcome back Dominos Pizza and Toys R Us is on the way) - small examples I know. Railway, road and metro construction will continue for years. American company Blout is looking at Poland (as well as a few other countries); this could create a 1000 jobs. There are even plans to move some production from China to Poland (due to quality issues and high cost of transport and rising wages). These investments won't allow the majority of the employees to buy their dream apartments, but the more money circulating , the better for everyone.

When I think of my city in Canada (o the majority of countries in Europe) compared to Poland, I'm definately glad to be here from an economics point of view.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]

wbj.pl/article-57009-is-now-the-time-to-invest-in-rentals.h tml?type=lim

Another nonsense article - suggesting a good time to buy an apartment to rent as well as other self-serving nonsense.

Mystery solved, Milky thinks we are going to the level of Moldavia, the lowest priced apartments in Europe - from today's paper:

Warsaw 19th in European apartment price ranking
The most expensive apartments in Europe are in Monaco, says a ranking prepared by
the Global Property Guide, where a square meter comes to zł.173,000. London and
Paris reported similar levels, with prices of zł.66,800 and zł.59,000 per square meter,
respectively. Warsaw ranked 19th on the list, with an average price of zł.15,000 per
square meter. The capital of Moldavia closed the ranking, with a per square meter price
of zł.4,500. The comparison was made on 120 square meter higher standard flats.
Prices were calculated from euro using a zł.4.40 exchange rate.
Puls Biznesu,, Nov 22, p 7, MCO


and before you attack me, I assume they mean Chisinau, the capital of Moldova - not Moldavia

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]

Think about it, get the house in Moldova you dream about now...don't wait for the price increase in Moldova and have the same regrets you have in Poland now

Prices are going down, but get realistic, we're not going back to Poland 2000

Back in 2000 we had our pick hiring university graduates, now we have trouble finding suitable candidates because we are competing with so many other companies and graduates salary demands are high.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


In the market to sell a used apartment maybe ;-)

It is true that new apartments are being constructed more cheaply in order to meet the demand that couldn't afford the price levels; however the idea that the supply is growing because of this simply cannot be true. Supply is growing because of the reasons mentioned on the last 8 pages.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]

Despite this construction news, it is still impossible to even build a piece of $%*& apartment and sell it at a profit if there was a severe fall in prices.

Poland had a construction boom with easy profits, that why Italian companies are building the metro, Greek companies are building roads, Chinese companies tried to build roads and German and Austrian companies are so large - this still is considered the land of construction opportunity. Severe competition puts the poorly managed construction companies into bankruptcy and cleans up the market. I don't expect we will see any of the big names thinking its strategically a good idea to leave Poland.


For the life of me I can't get the edit to work, my message should start:

Despite this construction news, it is.....

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


This is proof of nothing, no one wants to live in East Germany, there are hundreds of articles about this going back more than 10 years, one of many below. Location, location, location - ghost towns are cheap.

A shrinking population and the tendency for people to move into big cities in western Germany has emptied out thousands of homes in small towns in the eastern region. - thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/article2627341.ece

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


If the zloty does tank there could be positive consequences for housing:

-foreigners will be more hesitent to sell their apartments, preferring to wait (as the price of apartments fall and the amount translated into their home currency also falls due to exchange)

-Poland might start to look attractive for foreign investment again (as in EURO, USD, GBP or whaterever the apartments will get cheaper combined with the fall in zloty prices)

-Polish people working abroad could get more zloty for the Polish savings, making housing less expensive
-people with Swiss Franc or other currency loans will continue to pay their loans off (they can't sell as they wouldn't have enough to pay off the loan)

Therefore a fall of the zloty could offer some support for housing prices if we believe the foreigners and Polish working abroad have such a large influence - personally I think these factors don't have as much influence as some would want us to believe.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


You're right - but most of what is written in this thread is nonsense - so I don't try too hard :-)

Reality today most people with money don't really have safe options how to invest it - people without money are basically in trouble

I'm not sure how/if this will ever clean up - while we may not repeat what happened in Japan - it really is impossible knowing what to do - while I feel apartment prices will drop, I do feel better being diversified (owning property and multiple currency savings and shares)

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


Is it time to start the gold bubble thread?

forbes.com/sites/feeonlyplanner/2011/08/28/gold-bubble-or-not/

Final line: It is anybody's guess when gold will correct, but it is very likely that it will be ugly when it does.
Or should we sing the song of oil and silver and all the commodities.

End of the day trust people's addictions, I bought Philip Morris during the 2008 crisis and if we have another crash I'll double or triple my investment - even the freezing cold doesn't stop the smokers from smoking. Sure they have no problem renting - but somehow they always find the money to buy cigarettes.

I welcome all suggestions, what to do with $100,000 today (investing in any currency).

Real Estate / ADVICE please: Rightful owner of property in Poland? Property Value? [32]

delphiandomine

is this specific to the situation or in general? my understanding was a will is valid in Poland (in addition to if it is signed with a notary) if:

it was in writing or
it was witnessed by two people

of course I could be wrong - but please let me know as it would mean my will is not valid.

Real Estate / IS IT A GOOD TIME TO INVEST IN POLISH REAL ESTATE? [83]


Hate to be negative, but for a first post, this sounds like someone trying to 'market' a product.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

28 m2 doesn't sound so bad compared to 78 sq ft in New York

ca.shine.yahoo/manhattan-s-newest--smallest-apartment---architect-lives-in-78-square-foot-abode.html

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Warsaw stats and comparison - article extracts below:

Global housing market downturn gathering pace
Tuesday 28 February 2012The world’s housing downturn is gathering momentum, according to the latest world-wide survey of house price indices prepared by the Global Property Guide. During 2011, house prices fell in 22 countries, of the 35 countries for which Q4 house price statistics are available, and rose in only 13 countries. Similarly, 21 housing markets performed worse during 2011 than last year, while only 14 countries performed better.

The figures for the 4th quarter of 2011 are somewhat worrying, with quarterly price rises in only 10 countries, but price falls in 25 countries. On the other hand, the apparent trend towards recovery in the US is positive.

The Global Property Guide’s statistical presentation uses price-changes after inflation, giving a more realistic picture than the more upbeat nominal figures usually preferred by real estate agents.

European housing markets still heading down
Most countries whose housing markets experienced accelerated downturns in 2011 are located in Europe, including Finland (-2.22% down in 2011), United Kingdom (-3.39%), Sweden (-5.29%), Netherlands (-5.77%), Slovak Republic (-6.88%), Portugal (-7.78%), Spain (-9.27%), Athens, Greece (-10.43%), and Warsaw, Poland (-10.55%).

Unhappy Ireland still holds the title of ‘world’s weakest housing market’, with house prices plummeting by 18.08% in 2011. With low transactions, constrained mortgage lending, and an uncertain economic environment, Irish house prices are likely to continue falling in 2012.

However, several European countries actually enjoyed house price rises in 2011. The highest house price climb in Europe was in Tallinn, Estonia, whose property market has been recovering since the second half of 2010. Over the past twelve months, house prices in Tallinn rose 8.36%.

Housing markets in the Ukraine and Iceland finally bounced back in the final quarter of 2011. In Kiev, apartment prices climbed by 5.29% (in nominal terms) from a year earlier, after falling 9.47% the previous year. Likewise, house prices in Iceland rose 1.84% year-on-year, after falling 4.18% the previous year.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

good question, I went to the source and it seems what they quoted for Warsaw is actually for Poland, by city info below. I'd recommend checking the website for the full article (not that you can trust any data anywhere - I doubt the country data they use is even comparable) - globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/Price-History

Yet Poland's housing market was Europe's second-worst performer in 2011, down by 10.55% in inflation-adjusted terms.
Prices fell less in major cities, but the downturn is significant:
· In Warsaw, the average price of "exposed units" (i.e. used units) fell 6.6% in 2011 (6.97% in real terms), according to REAS.
· Krakow used dwelling prices fell 5.53% (5.90% in real terms).
· Poznan used dwelling prices fell 4.57% (4.95% in real terms).
· Lodtz used dwelling prices fell 5.46% (5.83% in real terms).
· Tri-City used dwelling prices fell 3.44% (3.82% in real terms).
· Wroclaw used dwelling prices fell 8.39% (8.75% in real terms).
Compared to pre-crisis peaks:
· House prices in Warsaw are down by 13.63% (13.53% in real terms).
· In Krakow, house prices are down by 11.80% (13.2% in real terms).
· In Lodz, prices have fallen by 17.87.% (17.67% in real terms).
· In Tri-City, house prices plunged by 25.22% (26.62% in real terms).
· In Wroclaw, house prices are down by 31.91% (31.81% in real terms).
· In Poznan, property prices plummeted by 44.08% (44.18% in real terms).

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Like I said - you can't trust any data anywhere - at best it is not comparable apartments (ie. more lower standard/smaller apartments are being sold).

Some more data from the news today for those who like data

Apartments losing value
Not all real estate markets in Europe have bounced back from the financial crisis - and
the Polish one belongs to them. Apartments have become cheaper since the 2007
housing bubble. Taking into account inflation, average value has fallen by a quarter,
according to professor Michael Ball from Reading University in Great Britain.
According to his newest report, "2012 RICS European Housing Review," it appears in
Ireland prices have fallen by more than 50% and in Great Britain and Hungary, by
more than 30%.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

google translation

In cities such as Lodz, Katowice, Bydgoszcz and Gorzow Wielkopolski apartments can be bought used for less than three thousand. zł per square meter. This price does not mean a bad standard, but a worse location, and usually a larger area - underline analysts.

In smaller towns, flats, especially in the secondary market, prices are relatively competitive. The data service Ofert.net that, in Lodz, the lowest bid per square meter of your home are 2.8 thousand. zł, 2.7 thousand in Katowice. zł per sq. m is even cheaper in Bydgoszcz , where the lowest asking prices of flats on the other hand are 2.6 thousand. zł per sq. m, and Gorzów these prices fluctuate around two thousand. zł died sq Drogomirecki Martin, principal analyst Oferty.net service, ensures that the cheapest bid is contrary to appearances, they are not vandalized properties in the ruined buildings.

- These are usually properties in quite good condition. Their low prices due to the fact that this was worse than central locations - Drogomirecki said. The second factor that influences the price reduction per square meter, is, according to analyst area. The relationship is such that the flat surface is higher, the price per square meter lower. apartments cheaper because wages are low According to Jaroslaw leap, a representative office in the agency Emmerson, low housing prices in cities such as Lodz , Katowice , whether due to Gorzow that in these markets is at a standstill. - There is a lack of purchasing power in these cities because people earn much less than in urban areas such as Warsaw - said Skoczeń. He added that all these local factors compounded the crisis which has affected the housing market even in large cities and small is often felt even more.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I'm having trouble with the math.

Assuming it was a 25 year mortgage paying down to zero, I ran some quick calculations.

To pay down the mortgage by only PLN 100 the interest rate would have to be 24% and they would have to pay PLN 3910 per month.
If the interest rate was 10% they would pay PLN 1772 a month and pay the mortgage down by PLN 1847 in the first year.

Could it be that the payments they were making were going to the fee to arrange the loan first and then to principle?

If you give me their monthly payment and the rate they pay I can run an amortization schedule and make them feel better.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


ok, understood, it was the exchange rate that killed them

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Interesting article about the overheated Toronto market - I know this board loves statistics like "61% of the household income".
While the article may indicate that Warsaw is better off than Toronto; one important difference I believe is that the Toronto market is relatively liquid at the various price levels.

theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/rob-carrick/homebuyers-beware-market-sucker-punch/article2374242

The Toronto market may just cool off on its own. Royal Bank of Canada's latest data on housing affordability shows that mortgage payments, property taxes and utility costs for a standard two-storey home in the city were equal to 61 per cent of the median pre-tax household income at the end of 2011.

Three possible measures have been discussed as ways to slow the housing market:
-Reduce the maximum amortization period back to 25 years from the 30-year option introduced back in 2006, along with a 35-year option that is now defunct.
-Raise the minimum down payment from the current 5 per cent;
-Use tougher stress tests on new mortgage borrowers that would measure their ability to carry mortgages at the higher interest rates we'll see eventually.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

My comments are directed towards Warsaw, but may be equally applicable to some other key cities.

More likely a combination of both.

Also I suspect where prices fall most, many of us won't want to live.

In the most desireable locations I don't think we will see people willing to sell at lower prices unless they are forced (eg. transferred to another city), even then they may choose to rent out instead.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Please don't go attacking McDonalds now, is nothing sacred. Supersize me, one of top misleading films everywhere. It isn’t the healthiest food, but it really isn’t that bad (with the salad instead of the fries).

Regardless, of course if you call a crash, you will eventually be right. I always liked the analogy that even a broken clock is right twice.

Polish real estate is still viewed as attractive to developers/investors (compared to other countries). Of course these leads to the situation of over-supply and an ultimate fall in prices.

As an investor, I wouldn't buy Polish real estate, as a person who wanted to own his own home, I bought.
Milky, I think you would fall into my group, good luck at identifying the bottom (but I agree with waiting for further decreases).
Regarding renting, I rented my first 10 years in Poland - my landlord was absolutely perfect, I actually miss her sometimes. I also substantially reduced the rent over 10 years - she had the attitude that it is better to have a good tenant for less money than a bad tenant or changing tenants or no tenant for more money - but this isn't the common view of landlords in Poland.

If prices did fall by any significant level, there is an enormous amount of money on the sidelines waiting to take advantage of this situation.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I can't comment on Ireland, I have no knowledge of this market.

58% drop in Warsaw:
-probably would be healthy
-still above the amount Milky interested in buying at, so his money would stay on the sidelines
-potentially would stop all residential development in Poland, which would lead to a recovery in prices, which would lead to developers developing again - at the end of the day Poland needs more apartments

-unlikely the apartments I would be interested in buying would fall 58%, but the general economy wins
-I still wouldn't be interested in being a landlord (at any price) but likely would create demand from people that want to move out of their 'too small' apartments

One day all the pesimists may be able to say I told you so