Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


I have twice listed the definition of a Ponzi scheme and how each point fits a property market. You and Harry have given not single argument of why its not a ponzi. Nothing.

End of Discussion.


Well don't hold your breath, it could be years. Prices are falling anyway, maybe its a slow farting fall as opposed to a pop. Poland is likely to get a sustained economic growth and wages are very low, so another higher peak could be on its way in many years - when credit runs out it will crash.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


As an alternative to your technique, borrowed from Goebells, of simply repeating the lie until it becomes true?


Not in the market for anything for another 3 years, thanks.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


The frequency in the UK/US is every 18years, peak to peak. Poland is just starting on it so it will take time to establish a pattern

"If you need more information, read this article.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2009/0709macewan.html"

This is your best defence of the property market...

As badly as our banking system operated in recent years, the housing bubble was not a Ponzi scheme. In some respects, however, it was even worse than a Ponzi scheme!

And, yes, substantial fraud was involved. For example, mortgage companies and banks used deceit to get people to take on mortgages when there was no possibility that the borrowers would be able to meet the payments. Not only was this fraud, but this fraud depended on government authorities ignoring their regulatory responsibilities.

So, no, a bubble and a Ponzi scheme are not the same. But they have elements in common. Usually, however, the losers in a Ponzi scheme are simply the direct investors, the schemer's marks. A bubble like the housing bubble can wreak havoc on all of us.

So, just like Ponzi scheme, but worse.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


Well you have had ample opportunity to provide an argument or explanation as to why property is not a Ponzi scheme and failed.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


Did you actually read it yourself?

I already posted the description of a Ponzi scheme, please explain how the Property is NOT a Ponzi scheme. Please, refute
the facts with more than 'no it isn't' and 'READ THIS'

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


Why then, would it change in value?

Some **** poor attempts at explaining why property isn't a Ponzi scheme, abject fail.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


Bullshit. There is no definition of valuation of an asset.

How much is an house worth?

Well, it DEPENDS.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]

So the sum total of you argument is; "I don't think so"

All property markets work in the same way, Poland isn't any different.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


And how do the 'agree' the value of property? Simple, the buyer sells it for more than he paid. The seller buys in the belief he will be able to sell it on latter for a higher price. This continues until a bigger fool cannot be found or a bank can/will no longer lend. A classic Ponzi scheme.

So your one reason why its not a Ponzi scheme, is actually evidence that it is.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


Wrong. And your explanation goes down hill after that. What you have posted is a salesman's excuse why secondary property bubbles are not a Ponzi scheme, it does however explain why property CAN be a PONZI scheme but attempts to suggest that 'secondary' property is different from other property, thet because its an asset, its has a 'fixed' value. Ponzi schemes are not about adding assets or whatever crap its trying to put forward as an excuse.

Ponzi did not sell real assets in any case, he sold stamps.

Ponzi schemes are about conning people into believing that returns on investments will be ever increasing and those returns are paid for by later entries to the scheme.

Lets take Wikipedia's explanation

"A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to separate investors, not from any actual profit earned by the organization, but from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors. "(Property - Check)

"The Ponzi scheme usually entices new investors by offering returns other investments cannot guarantee (Property - Check) ,
"in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent."(Property - Check)
"The perpetuation of the returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises and pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors to keep the scheme going."(Property - Check)

"The system is destined to collapse because the earnings, if any, are less than the payments to investors. Usually, the scheme is interrupted by legal authorities before it collapses because a Ponzi scheme is suspected or because the promoter is selling unregistered securities. As more investors become involved, the likelihood of the scheme coming to the attention of authorities increases. While the system eventually will collapse under its own weight, " (Property - Check. In that situation, as it a legally allowed scheme, the crash happens when the world runs out of money)

"Knowingly entering a Ponzi scheme, even at the last round of the scheme, can be rational economically if there is a reasonable expectation that government or other person or organisation will bail out those participating in the scheme."(Property - Check)

So, yes, the property market is a Ponzi scheme. A nice, legal, safe, predictable one but with the same end result - the suckers who bought at the end get shafted.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


Care to explain that or are you just going to make idle comments?

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]

Much like a Ponzi scheme. Those who get in first make money, as time goes on the number of (suckers)/(people able to borrow sufficient funds)/Bank Funds) runs out. Bubble pops/Ponzi scheme collapses.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]

A housing bubble is a perfect example of a Ponzi scheme

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]

"then my apartment gives me a gross yield of 7% which is repectable and far more than I would get from a bank"

The yield on our apartment in (central) Krakow is about 4.5% before costs after the recent falls. So after costs its not a decent investment at all in a stable market, never mind a falling one. Maybe Warsaw is different, in which case buy two.

And as has been pointed out, yield from rent is related to purchase price, prices come down and renter buy - which also means the number of renters fall and rents fall. I'd love to be able to charge more rent, but wages in Poland are so low its impossible.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I said it depends where and never mentioned the type of property. The various reports I've seen about prices in cities indicated a higher price than that.

In Krakow, looking in estate agents windows its about 7.5K per M2 around here. In the old town it more like 9.5K. Which is less than before certainly.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Obviously it depends where and what. Something like 8-10K PLN per square meter in cities.

Rather expensive compared to average wages.

Law / Does Poland have the most prehistorical and strictest banking system in the world? [57]


You cannot check a US bank in a UK bank, its impossible. In fact checks are being discontinued as they are obsolete.

Try cashing a non- US check in the US. They won't do it. The US banking system is pretty poor in itself, worse than many other western countries.

News / Zloty exchange rates - is this just speculation? [87]

Against the dollar its (£) at an 18month high, driven by speculation of an interest rate rise, which with todays lower than expected inflation figures (interest rate rise less likely) means the pound will go down.

The Zloty rate is driven by the Polish economy and interest rates. Just remember that it was classed as one of the worlds most undervalued currencies at the start of the year, so it will keep getting stronger.

Food prices are almost the lowest in the EU (-35% below average), plenty of opportunity for the Zloty to rise to fix that anomaly.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

"there's already a dual carriageway route all the way to Warsaw "

Where is this. AFAIK, there is no dual dual carriageway route anywhere between Krakow and Warsaw, except around Kielce.

"the A1 to Gdansk and Lodz isn't far away"

From what??? Not Krakow, obviously.

Travel / The S7 Poland a toll way - Krakow to Warsaw [8]

I don't think a two lane road (the s7 north of Krakow) is in anyway like a motorway in any European country. Expressways/motorways have 120km/hr speed limit, not 60/40km as it is now. There is also no traffic lights or pedestrian crossings on motorways.

The road north from Krakow is not good enough. In fact, the fastest way to the north of Poland is via Germany. That is ridiculous, but true.

Travel / The S7 Poland a toll way - Krakow to Warsaw [8]


well its not in the timetable to come further south, stops 2/3rd the way down.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

You are right, selling prices could have fallen even further but they were hidden. It doesn't negate the fact the prices are falling in a very substantial way.

Work / 3500 Euro Gross in Poland for a family of 2 Adults and a kid, any good? [28]


Its very high for a Polish IT developer, probably double or more a local's pay.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Do you actually read other peoples posts before commenting?

Its says askingprices, and real price of 15% is including inflation.


Well, I do having seen some real world , actual figures.


Then why are they cutting asking prices?


You do not have to go through with the purchase.


You do not have to go through with the purchase.


wbj/article-54031-polish-house-prices-expected-to-drop-further.html

Law / Poland headed for an accounting disaster? Imports underestimated, no Euro entry [19]


Its has upsides and downside. The up is Import/exporters and trade with Germany would be improved and increased.

The downsides are loss of control over the economy (possibly not such an issue if Poland s economy is utterly dependant on the Euro's biggest economy). Major downside is price inflation (rounding up of prices) and possible loss of competitiveness (more of a Lazy Latin country issue, I hope)

Edit: biggest gain is property owners of course. Low interest and attractiveness for Euro investors.

Real Estate / Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010 [89]


LOL.

Hint: Reality beats predictions. See my other post if you need a link in English.

(This maybe the article that it is referring to)

Starting prices of new apartments in Poland fell during the year by as much as 10 percent. Comes completed housing that lacks takers. Customers prefer to premises under construction, because they are cheaper

- The supply of new flats estimate of over 44 thousand . We are in a comfortable situation for the buyer : a wide selection , a large pool of ready units , new projects arranged with an emphasis on smaller premises - says Maciej Dymkowski , president of the portal Tabelaofert.pl .

Central Statistical Office announced , developers have started in 2010 . By more than 40 percent . more sites than in 2009 . Meanwhile, sales offices some months in arrears developers ready apartment.


Why it would be wishful, or something I have done again?

For record, I have no interest in further properties in Poland, two is enough.

However, its says something about you that you are defensive about falling property prices. Wishful thinking, perhaps? Need rising prices?

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Again, for the 100th time, I suggest you look at my original post, there is a link.


Yes, it makes you think that it's irrelevant, even if they had actually been bought as opposed to 'reserved for future purchase'.

Law / Poland headed for an accounting disaster? Imports underestimated, no Euro entry [19]


What are you talking about? I didn't edit anything. Did the mods edit something or did the article change.

Its not 'nothing', its potentially a very serious problem.