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Posts by polishinvestor  

Joined: 28 Dec 2015 / Male ♂
Last Post: 24 Aug 2018
Threads: Total: 1 / In This Archive: 1
Posts: Total: 341 / In This Archive: 270

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polishinvestor   
23 Feb 2016
News / Cameron's EU reform good for Poland [95]

The french are inconsequential, a stain on the german shirt sleeve. Economically they are dead weight and these days thats all that matters when ascertaining who calls the shots. World war 3 was financial and the germans got europe at the third time of asking.

These of course the bundesbank is recalculating the costs of the euro. Germany managed to cripple its european competitors while at the same time enjoying a weak exchange rate. Euro bonds backed by the ecb was the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for other participants. Of course they are no nearer to it and the germans will never allow it.

Overall it was a solid plan, the eurozone, but the germans couldnt foresee the unveiling of quantitive easing by the usa nor the bail outs that were forced upon the german taxpayer. So the minuses keep racking up which is why they are playing more hardball and making countries look for "internal" solutions to their debt problems.
polishinvestor   
22 Feb 2016
News / Cameron's EU reform good for Poland [95]

Nonsense. The French insisted that the Germans give up their DM as a prerequisite for the reunification of Germany.

The Germans very infinitely happy to trade the mark for the euro. Its has been immensely profitable for them. Really, having their cake and eating it.
polishinvestor   
22 Feb 2016
News / Cameron's EU reform good for Poland [95]

The ECB has negative interest rates and will decrease then further in March. They currently have a multi trillion quantative easing program underway (essentially printing money and so debasing the euro) to which they are likely to add/expand in March. The euro is a funding currency used to invest in other higher yielding assets. The surplus that the euro enjoys is the only thing keeping it from collapsing given its funding currency status.

Yes the mark was stronger than the pound towards the end, but the Germans needed a weaker currency to dominate Europe (and non EU exports) and so they were eager to set up the eurozone.

The pound has stronger fundamentals which is why its been near multi year highs vs the euro. Rates are expected to rise in the UK before they do in Europe. It has fallen back a bit since xmas due to the brexit uncertainty (the need to hedge against a brexit means crudely selling pounds). Companies have been holding off capital investment decisions and this will clearly put a handbrake on growth in the first half of this year, so inflation and growth forecasts have been set back a little and this has also contributed to the downfall of the pound this year.
polishinvestor   
21 Feb 2016
News / Cameron's EU reform good for Poland [95]

Plenty of money to be made on both sides of the argument, more on a Brexit. But if brexit indeed, it wont go quite like the media puts it.
polishinvestor   
21 Feb 2016
News / Cameron's EU reform good for Poland [95]

Polls are marginally with the leave side, having been a solid lead for the stay side a year or so ago. I will say no more on this, not wanting to give up my play.
polishinvestor   
21 Feb 2016
Law / A Polish company have not paid me [13]

Unfortunately thats how limited liability works. Once the obligatory advertising period passes and spolka wound up, thats it. Its the way of the world.
polishinvestor   
21 Feb 2016
News / Cameron's EU reform good for Poland [95]

The city was the financial capital of the world before the eu/euro and will remain so in event of brexit. In fact it will become an even bigger draw.

Remember that eu minus uk is lesser than current eu makeup.
polishinvestor   
21 Feb 2016
News / Cameron's EU reform good for Poland [95]

It was the demands of the eastern european block that took the meeting into the weekend. Szydlo gloating in the weekend press has been picked up by the uk press and may swing some undecideds but the game changer isnt benefits. Currently the exit camp has a marginal lead in the most polls but have come from a losing position. In the same way the scots voted yes to stay in the uk, the uk will vote to leave the eu on the 23rd june. The dice has already been cast, these weekend negotiations will make no difference.
polishinvestor   
19 Feb 2016
Law / Car Market in Poland? Aftermarket car parts? [22]

Delph, there used to be a great auto paint shop in a little village I used to be involved in a few years ago. It was the only one in town, you had to drive 15kms to get to the nearest one in a bigger town and that one was more expensive. They did fine until they started to allow people to pay after job completetion. First a few days, then a week, then two and more. They went bust. Painters that took paint essentially na kreche then went to the paint shop in the city and paid the higher prices but avoided having to settle up with the local store. In Poland the leash has to tight as a ducks arse!
polishinvestor   
19 Feb 2016
Life / How can Polish immigrants complain about other immigrants? [65]

3 million Poles have moved temporarily or permanently abroad for a better life. But its a two way street. People have a right to move to Poland and take advantage of the fertile investment opportunities here. I dont think really one can argue against people from abroad investing money in Poland while at the same time supporting Poles moving abroad. It has to work both ways. The key here is that certain sets of people see opportunities that others dont for their particular set of circumstances.
polishinvestor   
18 Feb 2016
Law / Car Market in Poland? Aftermarket car parts? [22]

Its a thriving business, big and small parts shops, one needs the other to survive. Generally the small ones in the area will order from the big one such as intercars and because they buy in bulk from intercars, they get a large discount of 50% or more on parts. They pass some of this discount on to the small garages or sole traders, who otherwise wouldnt get much of a discount at intercars due to small turnover. So its a win all round.
polishinvestor   
18 Feb 2016
Law / Car Market in Poland? Aftermarket car parts? [22]

I can well believe that dolnyslask. That area is a hot bed for car crime of all manner. What people generally know about is the tip of the iceberg what goes on there.

As for parts, garages generally take parts the day or days before on a wz (wydanie zewnetrzne) from intercars or whoever supplies the parts. If youre not sure which parts will fit (say various lengths of handbrake cable) or youre trying to convince the client to fit a better quality part (eg lemforder or febi instead of maxgear POS), you take 2 or 3 parts on a wz slip, then hand back the rest after the job is done and pay for the one you used. Either you go to the supplier directly or if its a bigger one, the daily delivery van collects the parts and you pay the bill once every week or two.

With all that in mind, parts by mail order is only going to work for people doing work on there own cars, that can afford to way a day or more for parts. As for popular makes, all VAG passenger cars while french and german vans are popular. Unless you have a TDi you havent made it. The tracksuit and hoody alone wont cut it ;)
polishinvestor   
18 Feb 2016
News / How would Poland change for the better (or worse) under a PiS government? [257]

Everyone is out for themselves and tries to outfox the system.

This has always been the case in Poland. The word skombinowac is a product of communism. It still holds true today, but of course the avenues for such are fewer since private corporations today are more alert to theft than the government at that time.
polishinvestor   
18 Feb 2016
News / Polish magazine causes outrage with cover showing white woman being sexually attacked by 'migrants' [57]

These are real problems for the likes of the UK, Germany and other desirable points of destination for the refugees and immigrants. Poland is 99% white and mostly catholic so the majority is always looking towards other races, particular those of collour, with distrust at the very least. And those looking for a new home fully recognise the state of affairs in Poland and the vast majority coming in are likely to quickly move on to western europe. The important thing is to avoid unnecessary conflict with the EU, to continue to receive investment funds from them. You only have to look at the crisis generated in Greece or Cyprus to see how getting on the wrong side of the EU works out. Its a game that needs to be played with a cool head. Poland has much to offer the EU, central location, a hardworking relatively cheap workforce etc but it cannot be seen calling the shots. But with a smart approach you can let someone think they made a decision, while all the while you made it for them.

Poland needs to take the necessary precautions but look through this problem, as its going to be very quickly transferred elsewhere.
polishinvestor   
18 Feb 2016
News / Polish magazine causes outrage with cover showing white woman being sexually attacked by 'migrants' [57]

Poles will be Poles and not unlikely most CEE. Many in politics corrupt or if not, then at the very least looking to line their own pockets first. Whether its PO, PIS or any other. Thats the reality, expecting anything else in this country is naive. You take it as it is and work with it. The next government isnt likely to be whiter, but will be more pro EU, as thats where the money is.
polishinvestor   
17 Feb 2016
Life / Tacky commerpop and the slob chic in Poland? [24]

In order to for one to be regarded as intelligent, it requires there to be a person of lesser intelligence with which to compare.
A rock will remain a rock no matter what you try to teach it. And my Belgian Shepherd dog was the smartest dog I have ever seen and I didnt teach him a thing.
polishinvestor   
17 Feb 2016
Real Estate / Earn UK income, live in Poland, any chance of a mortgage? [3]

A couple of potential clients were interested in the same thing. One set worked in Germany the other set Ireland. The agent said the down payment required was in the region of 60%. I dont know whether thats true. I think its more a question of being able to properly account for the debts of the foreigner. We had a similar situation with a guy from Canada who had wages in region of three times the national average.

Maybe contact a credit broker. They will add 1 or 2 percentage to the value of the loan if you get it but it will be quicker and safer than going around all 30 odd bank offers yourself.
polishinvestor   
17 Feb 2016
News / How would Poland change for the better (or worse) under a PiS government? [257]

I wonder if in the 230 million savings Morawiecki includes himself as he made more than 20 million working at bzwbk. Very easy to take the moral high ground once you have had your fill. Walking away from the table when its almost empty isnt difficult.
polishinvestor   
16 Feb 2016
Law / Business in Poland and Polish reality, How are you doing in Poland? [82]

That 6 months applies to individuals. If you have the vehicle entered as a business asset and deduct running costs and depreciation as expenses, when sold you may have to pay tax regardless of whether you have kept it 6 months or not. I would speak to your accountant to be clear on the matter.
polishinvestor   
16 Feb 2016
Law / Business in Poland and Polish reality, How are you doing in Poland? [82]

Luke I think for you, the bus isnt commercially viable. I dont have the figures in front of me, i dont know whether you have tried all avenues to drum up business such as travel agents, sports clubs etc but it seems to me that not enough will be set aside to eventually replace the bus in the future whether that be outright or lease. At the very lease you need to do a cost analysis and cashflow forecast for the next couple of years to see where you are. Everyone can make mistakes, its important we learn from them and dont repeat them.
polishinvestor   
16 Feb 2016
Law / Business in Poland and Polish reality, How are you doing in Poland? [82]

While letting flats can have a lower return (it doesnt have to if you buy well meaning at a good price), its a lot easier/quicker to find a tenant. If you have a good location, it can takes just a few of days and then you vet the prospective tenants. Essentially you decide who gets to live in your flat not the other way around. Often the prospective tenants will be a bit shocked for all the questions, but I just outline that we want to ensure that the other party is able to pay their way through the duration of the umowa, normally 12 months rolling in case of flat letting. The plus side over commerical is that you can buy a few flats for the price of a good commercial and dont have all your eggs in one basket so to speak. So despite prefering commercial we do have a handful of flats for rent although they are located in one building which we own with a small commercial on the ground floor.

As for commercials and giving notice, it has happened to us a couple of times in 12 years but only when those renting were not large companies or chains and location hasnt been the best, otherwise there hasnt been a problem. As I said, location is most important as there are only so many good spots in each city. Although there are some exceptions,I would stay away from banks in large, particularly the ones that have a large swiss loan book such as Getin and Raiffeisen.
polishinvestor   
15 Feb 2016
Law / Business in Poland and Polish reality, How are you doing in Poland? [82]

You mention for the elderly, yes in the UK it was a very lucrative business up until recently. Here in Poland, the government doesnt pay for care and that means relying on private only. Yes you will get some Germans sending their loved ones to Polish homes but there arent that many, they prefer to take on Polish nurses in Germany. When/if the government starts to cover the cost of care for all old people, then this will be a huge business. But there is a massive hole in the government pension pot and I dont think we will see care paid for within the next 20 years even.

Nursery/playschool all I can say is my eldest attends a playschool and we pay about 400zl/m after you include all the top up activities. The playschool is government supported but used to be privately run. However, competition from other playschools in the area which were government supported meant they either had to drop their prices or become government funded which is what they did. The owners seem to do ok from it, certainly enough to put their daughter through university.
polishinvestor   
15 Feb 2016
Law / Business in Poland and Polish reality, How are you doing in Poland? [82]

Property in the uk is a safer investment. Its far larger and more liquid market with safe haven status the nearer you get to london. Due to this prices are a little inflated in areas and so the yield is less. The lower the risk the lower the yield, if something is priced correctly. In the UK you are looking at 3% yield in London at best, outside maybe 5 or 6% for a good property if lucky. In Poland, weve seen a correction and some regions havent at all recovered from the 2008 and 2011 crashes. The biggest cities have good liquidity but even so, nothing on the scale of the biggest in the UK. You are rewarded with a higher yield which is something current while in the long term, there is the expectation of greater capital growth than in a safer market such as the UK. Asset values in emerging markets are prone to greater swings than of those in developed markets and its important to recognise this when preparing an exit strategy before you invest. You can limit these swings by purchasing well, a highly desirable asset will always sell faster and for a better price than a less desirable one. As far as liquidity is concerned you can make this work for you when purchasing - forcing a lower buying price.

Of course any failure will cost probably about 1k- anything but we don't know...

This is very important. Any business venture not only has to make a profit but has to make enough money over time to cover the cost of fixed asset depreciation, maintenance and eventual replacement. Not many people consider the latter when appraising profitability.
polishinvestor   
15 Feb 2016
Law / Business in Poland and Polish reality, How are you doing in Poland? [82]

who own several 24h stores and make a lot of money barely doing anything

Its the guy that owns the title deed to the shop that makes the real money doing nothing ;)

You sound like you want to sell him something...

Just good advice. Worth a million but costs nothing.
polishinvestor   
15 Feb 2016
Life / If UK votes to leave the EU - what repercussions for British people living in Poland? [32]

EU and in particular Germany runs a trade surplus with the UK so a two way trade deal is in their interests. The UK will also be an even greater safe haven against stresses in the EU. Geography and a transparent legal system ensure London is the financial capital of the world, not so much because the UK is in the EU.
polishinvestor   
15 Feb 2016
Law / Business in Poland and Polish reality, How are you doing in Poland? [82]

The rosstech software is very good. Sometimes it directly indicates the source if the problem, other times it gives you an areas which need to be explored to locate the component causing the fault. Correcting paint is something Im quite good at and would love to do in spare time, but I dont have much of it sadly so I do just ours as and when. Average price for a whole car varies by who and where its done. People charge from 300zl to more than a grand per car sometimes.
polishinvestor   
15 Feb 2016
Law / Business in Poland and Polish reality, How are you doing in Poland? [82]

I owned a small auto repair service and tyre shop for a few years so I do have some experience here. It was dealing with day to day repairs for modern cars rather than classics, but yes labour can be cheap (some legally registered run and registered businesses can charge as little at 30zl/h labour in a small village and still make a little money on top). Quality of workmanship often can leave a lot to be desired although their own confidence in their own work is sky high! I do hear a lot of people doing work on classics cars transported from Germany. Work is done here in Poland then the cars return to Germany by transporter or under their own steam if able to. A friend of mine did a 60's Mustang last year as well as an early Ford Capri, both from Germany. If you have a keen interest and are able to do a lot of the work yourself, Id say its certainly a rewarding way to spend your spare time. As a business in a smaller town, Id say you have to have a technical understanding of the auto repair business otherwise you have no basis from which to appraise the quality of work done by your staff. The cost side is something you would have to learn quickly as you can very easily overpay for materials, even more so for labour. That all said there is a huge market for auto repair in Poland. The Poles like to import accident damaged cars from abroad and repair them here in Poland where its much cheaper. But, in a small town, your competition will often be a guy working illegally from his own home, often using materials bought cheaply that have been stolen from auto repair and body shops. So earnings might be quite modest.