USA, Canada / My story. Born In the USA - do I have a chance in Poland, my Mother Country? [69]


Why? what he hates about America is specifically American.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Not so, a lot use equity from overseas sales (USA) or savings (more tha most countries).


[/quote]
There are 700K CHF mortages in total, thats a very small percentage


True, but wages are going to rise in future.


170k apartments were built in the boom. That stands out as a very small number compared to other countries such as Spain which built several million apartments.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I got a personal loan in the UK , never told the bank what it was for. I wanted it unsecured with the ability to walk away from the loan without losing the property. Its a 5 year loan, 2 years paid up.

I'm a bit confused over your argument, though. banks only need to consider the risk and the rate they pay for the money versus the rate they charge a buyer.

Inflation isn't their problem, its a help to borrowers. Inflation doesn't make the borrower go into debt, unless you have an inflation linked loan (as in Iceland, you aren't Icelandic are you???). So 10 years into a loan, 4% inflation will have probably added 50% to a property's value (assuming fixed prices) and half the debt would have paid off by repayments. Leaving the mortgage as 25% of the equity.

USA, Canada / My story. Born In the USA - do I have a chance in Poland, my Mother Country? [69]

As you have a EU passport and health needs, I'd suggest you aim for the south west of Poland, near a big city for health care and access to other EU countries (where you would be entitled for treatment). So around Wroclaw I guess, which is supposed to be very nice and has good transport links. Its would give you quicker access to southern Europe/Germany and warmer weather if needed. You may consider wintering/holidaying in the Canary Islands, its cheap (tax free zone) and there is a lot of reasonably priced accommodation. Being near the equator gives you all year round summer.

I don't think you would have any problem settling in Poland, there are a lot of Polish American's here and I get the impression they are respected. I can't even speak much Polish but the welcome I get is universally positive. I did a quick google and given your history, I think you could have success in Poland. Nigel Kennedy seems to be doing alright in Krakow. secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Nigel_Kennedy

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


People refuse to take inflation into account, well at least western Europeans who have forgotten about it. But its effect is extremity corrosive and very damaging. We are going to see a lot of it over the next few years as reducing debt levels, bailing out the debtors at everybody else expense. On that line of thinking I got the biggest loan I could get and bought a farm, food and basic accommodation being effective as an inflation hedge.

You know people also tend to assign credit card debt as an asset; debt is wealth apparently.


Then you must be aware of the cyclical nature of the property market, I prefer the stability of my own business area.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Look at the first post on this thread. Now tell me why I should believe his selection of prices against the original article? In fact Sean ignores this chart,

Price changes

from the same article, showing a around 15% fall since 2007.Compound 4% inflation for four years, plus 15% gives a real fall of 28%. Not a crash, no sir. 28% fall is just rinky-dinky perfect.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I did.
I would say a fall is of 15% per year would constitute a crash, but thats something you dispute.

What would you call -15% per year? steady? stable? gentle decline?

Whatever, lets see what this non-crash looks like after a few years of the same falls.

Real Estate / Best Mortgage Lender in Poland? [25]

Obviously a CHF mortgage would be the best option now, I thought I read they were more popular than ever?


Swiss banks for a start.

Law / What's the best way to transfer £20,000 into PLN [31]

Be careful, anything over £1000 can be confiscated in (anywhere) the UK unless you can prove where it came from. This superceeds the fact that you have to declare over 10k euro at the UK border. Bank statements and withdrawal slips would help.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Prices have fallen 10% and inflation is near 5%. How is that not a fall in prices,. Please explain.


I have never said anything about a crash either


Ok, to you the difference between rising prices and falling 15% per year is 'nit picking'.

To everyone else (who arn't obviously desperate to sell property) its a big 'Don't buy' signal.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I have no idea who 'they' are, but don't tar me with the same brush. I would not buy shares, well possibly in the next few weeks when the market is going to hit a historic bottom.


Actually, he said invest in hundreds of other things first, rather than Polish property.

You cannot make a judgment on a instantaneous share price to justify your point of view, next week prices maybe up 10%. Next year you can be certain of the trend in property. In a few the trend will reverse and it will be a no brainer.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Its happening in future, the world economy is tanking for the next few years. I expect the recovery to take hold when world debt is paid off. Three years at least, maybe five or even eight years. So avoid buying property until them, prices will depreciate.

That the answer you were looking for?

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Nice rant avalon. Are you trying to justify property as an investment now? Given up on the 'roof over your head'?

Personally I think property is a good thing, as long are you can get an income from it. Problem is that wages and prices have to be related for that to be viable, otherwise you are gambling on the availability of credit from banks. Banks are constrained in their lending by their share prices as they use it in their core capital ratio's.

So if German share prices fall, so to will Polish apartments prices. Its contagious.

Nobody knows where the safe haven for your money is. Gold is one. I'd go for oil/food, which would be oil shares and farmland and people need somewhere to live, even in the worst of times - so cheap property is probably safe.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


No idea,

gazetaprawna.pl - try clicking on the Tax link (Podatki)

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


If its over priced you will not get as higher return on it and will lose money when you sell it. 'retain a premium'... what does that mean?

The tax implications are that if you don't declare it they can charge you double when they catch you and they check real estate purchases and the sources of the money There were some articles here about it yesterday

podatki.gazetaprawna.pl

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Give us the details...

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


The article is dated, 1st August 2011.

So this is in addition to the previous 10%, add on two years of around 5% inflation and you have 30% fall from peak.

Continuing falling prices constitutes a crash, so its new.


Are rents anywhere near the level you can pay for a mortgage? Rental income seems pathetically low, not surprising given the low wages (in Krakow that is).

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


wbj.pl/article-55520-apartments-to-be-had-at-bargain-prices.html


I am not the one who doesn't understand the difference between a commodity and property. Have a read secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Commodity.

A roof doesn't require you to buy it, you can rent. You can also live with your parents.

Buying is optional.

Buying commodities such as food, fuel, water is not optional, they cannot be hired as they are consumed.

Work / Supplement Income Sources In Poland [8]

Selling and bartering food is obviously big. Don't small farmers get an effective tax free existence in Poland? The market local to me in Krakow you can hire a table for 10 pln per day and sell you produce, I've see old ladies selling a few dozen eggs and few bunches of dill. Poland has a large barter economy from what I've seen.

USA, Canada / Moving from United Kingdom to USA. Is it worth it? [136]


I wouldn't depend on hunting to survive a SHTF situation. This site has some good insights ferfal.blogspot.com. Bottom line, you will need a gun to defend yourself as the criminals will be armed to the teeth and determined as hell. The hunter's will eradicate any wild food, pretty quickly.

Personally I'd prefer a country where the best gunfighter survives. Poland, for example, has had poverty and they didn't go around killing each other for dollars as is common in Argentina; thats a sign of a fundamentally failed society.

USA, Canada / Moving from United Kingdom to USA. Is it worth it? [136]


Wikipedia has the charts, if you are middle class, you real income has been stagnant for decades. Most people are not getting richer.

secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Income_inequality_in_the_United_States

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I don't need to include every commodity they are all requiored in varying amounts.


Land prices are an intangible asset and in most cases the major part of the cost of building. You could build a house out of paper, but it would still cost a fortune in the centre of London and almost nothing in the middle off Polands countryside. You don't sell the building materials+cost of labour +profit, you add on cost of location which is almost the same as a share price (less so as shares tend to be include a real income, fixed assets and cash in the bank).

Here,a part paper house for your amusement

emagazine.com/archive/3012

USA, Canada / Moving from United Kingdom to USA. Is it worth it? [136]


The US is one of the last countries in the world I would choose to live. Granted, I'd exclude the entire continent of Africa and most third world countries. But the US is closer to a Third world country than a First. Its a depressing place.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Those are commodities you have to consume, property are fixed assets that are optional and discretionary purchases.

You, a developer, attach commodities (building materials/labour) into a fixed asset. The fixed assets is most of the profit and its what makes you a speculator, the price of land.

There is no limit on the price of property, its a completely illiquid asset, becuase its fixed by location. Its price isn't determined by its worth, but by the availability of willing customers and that is determined by the availability of credit. Due to the excessive valuations of property world wide, the ability of banks to conjurer up money has expired.

All the money in the world, not just this year, but for the next 20 years, has been spent. Thats why property prices have stopped rising, there isn't any more money left.

Not surprisingly discretionary spending, such as property speculation, is being cut back to fund essentials consumables, such as electricity, gas, food and water.

Good look with the attempt to portray property speculation as one of life essentials, alongside food and water.


Nope, the real crash will happen soon and all the ammunition to prevent it has been used up.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


I'm talking about Poland leaving the EU, its the only way to stop speculators. WTF would care if he's in the US?


Indeed, rising prices benefit existing property owners. The vast majority of whom are Polish.


If you are bankrupt/repossessed you won't have any say in the matter, will you? In any case you sell at a price that someone is willing to pay and the market decides what that is.

USA, Canada / Moving from United Kingdom to USA. Is it worth it? [136]

Classy.

UK, Ireland / Poles in the UK not a problem as far as i can tell [79]

I really enjoy it when ******* losers come here and complain about Poles stealing their jobs or whatever. Its nice to see them suffer without having to lift a finger.

Arse is the British spelling, the arsehole used it correctly.

Work / Got a job offer (involving Hungarian and Romanian languages) in Krakow. Potential salary? [28]

I think you will find a lot of people from say Luxembourg who will fit quite nicely, their language is a mixture of French and German and Dutch is pretty similar to German (plus the proximity should help). And of course they will speak English. I'd suspect you will find a lot of Dutchmen who can speak French and German on top of their native Dutch/English. Language graduates usually do two languages, of which French and German are a popular pair.

None the less, you will still find it nearly impossible to get a well paid job purely on being multi lingual.

USA, Canada / Moving from United Kingdom to USA. Is it worth it? [136]


You are talking about the USA here arn't you? becuase both of those apply to the US. What is it, 40% of US government spending is borrowed. Any sane country would slash the Trillion dollar defence budget.

USA, Canada / Moving from United Kingdom to USA. Is it worth it? [136]


Indeed it would. In 10 years Polands GDP per capita will be the same as most Western countries. If he bought now in five years he could have paid off the loan on a house in Poland based on his UK salary.

St John Woods is a upmarket area to live, next to Regents Park and Lords Cricket ground, pretty expensive obviously. But go ahead and make ignorant comments about things you don't know about. The cap fits.