Real Estate /
Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]
This is what I call a crash.:-
Agreed.
Spanish official figures show quiet a modest fall in prices, Tinsa shows the general fall is 25% and 33% on the Costas. The official figures being bullocks, of course, most observers claim a 50%++ fall.
They've learned their lesson and are not pushing it on foreign speculators any more, but cater it to local population by providing more job opportunities.
As I understand it the holiday homes for foreigners are of no use to locals as they are hundreds of km away from any jobs (potentially of now) and far too expensive even when discounted.
Construction in Spain has all but stopped dead. They are still building in Poland
If you look at the PDF with falling city prices the next chart showing the significant increase unsold stock in Poland. But I agree that Poland is no where near the situation in Spain or Ireland; in Poland there are not many holiday homes for speculators, there is a fundamental pent up demand from locals and a modest amount of new builds. Which is why I think any 'crash' will be quickly recovered in Poland.
I have no idea who these people are, but they call Poland's market the second worst in Europe
and claim >10% falls in 2011
Already posted.
I can't take them seriously because the 'real' price falls are garbage - inflation is measured nationally yet the real prices vary city to city and inflation is several percent per year so real should be
much different from nominal prices.
Having said that, its conclusions are pretty spot on.
Soft landing? That depends on Germany
In summary,the Polish housing market is experiencing a severe after-boom consolidation. This is not necessarily bad news. The housing market may be overbuilt, but the demographics are moving in the right direction. On the other hand, a large proportion of Polish housing loans are denominated in foreign currency, undoubtedly, a risk.
However while most of Europe is struggling to avoid a double-dip recession, the Polish economy is growing. Its depreciated currency makes its products attractive to buyers.
Workers are moving back to Poland, according to recent OCDE data. Unemployment was 9.6% in 2011, and is expected to rise to 9.9% in 2012, but this is lower than in many European countries. This factor should not be neglected. Migration dynamics are a fundamental demand driver for urban housing markets, particularly for urban areas such as Warsaw, Krakow and Wroctaw characterized by significant in-migration rates.
