USA, Canada /
Getting a VISA to USA by a Polish person nowadays [339]
Ironside wrote:
Actually I think that more then 30 000 illegals per year would be enough to justify exclusion of Poland from the VWP!
As expected. Now maybe we can talk turkey.
30,000 illegals per year would be enough for you, someone who thinks that Poland's present exclusion from the VWP is chamstwo of the worst kind.
consider this: 107,000 poles in 2009 recieved tourist visas, around 12,000 were denied. I think we can agree if we can accept a little bit of speculation, that at least 50% of those 12,000 applicants were in fact planning on overstaying their travel visas, maybe even never returning. This is obviously a VERY tiny fraction of Poland's population as a whole but for all intensive purposes, it still leaves you with around 6,000 illegals.
now, here's the next thing to consider: think about how many Poles who have relatives/close friends in Illinois, New York City and state, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Jersey....who
wanted to go to the USA last year and most likely overstay and work illegally but didn't go because either they knew they'd get denied a visa (or have already been denied and didn't want to try again) or they simply couldn't be bothered with the hours and hours of traveling to Warsaw/Krakow (possibly with their children) and standing in line, paying all the application fees, etc.
Is it completely irrational to imagine that if the USA completely opened the doors up for Polish travel, our 6,000 illegals per year number could double? Triple? If we were suddenly looking at 15,000-20,000 illegals per year Ironside, 10,000 less than your number of "30,000", would THAT justify the USA's ongoing refusal to not grant Poland visa free travel?
Something else to think about: There are currently around 600,000 poles living and working in the UK, a country they had very little connection to before 2004 when the doors opened, but they all scooted out there for better pay and a better life for them and their families and it's only been 6 years. Now consider the USA, a country that ALREADY has experienced several waves of Polish immigration over the years, accumulating a population of 10,000,000. Sure, people like to argue that Poles prefer the UK because it's cheaper to fly there and it's within the EU meaning they can work legally (a valid point) but consider the fact that if even
.00075% of Poland decided to go to America next year and overstay their visa so they can work in a country that has no prejudice against Polish immigrants (or at the very least, an abismal amount compared to the tensions they are currently dealing with in the UK at present), friends/family who already have decades, even several generations of life and success in the country, social networks above and beyond the UK, a larger choice of cities to live in.......and what would you get?
.00075% = 30,000.
NOW, sure, you can read all this and still shout "speculation!" but man, whether it is or isn't, is it something
that difficult to imagine? When considering all this, do you still feel just as confident taking a completely close minded stance on the topic, adamantly pushing on that Poland's exclusion from the VWP is beyond a shadow of a doubt "unjustifiable"?
Or, is your "30,000" closer to reality than you might expect?
